With the 2024 season opening today, our club on campus at the University of Michigan has come together to predict the season ahead using our aggregate baseball knowledge. From what we consider to be one of the biggest rooms of baseball nerds across the country, our hope is to be as spot on as we possibly can. We will reevaluate upon the close of the 2024 season.
Methodology: For team performance, we took DraftKings’ over/under win totals* and voted on whether each of the 30 MLB teams would finish above or below their expected mark. Next, we voted on our AL and NL Pennant winners, and based on this, have decided upon a M-SABR-predicted World Series champion for 2024. Finally, we voted on the major player awards — Rookie of the Year, Cy Young, and MVP for each league.
*Over/Unders are dated March 20th
Check out our team season previews by clicking on the link corresponding with each team below!
Results
Team Over/Under Win Totals:
AL East
- New York Yankees: Over 91.5
- Baltimore Orioles: Over 90.5
- Tampa Bay Rays: Over 84.5
- Toronto Blue Jays: Under 86.5
- Boston Red Sox: Under 77.5
AL Central
- Minnesota Twins: Over 86.5
- Detroit Tigers: Under 80.5
- Cleveland Guardians: Under 79.5
- Kansas City Royals: Under 74.5
- Chicago White Sox: Under 61.5
AL West
- Houston Astros: Over 93.5
- Texas Rangers: Over 88.5
- Seattle Mariners: Under 87.5
- Los Angeles Angels: Under 72.5
- Oakland Athletics: Under 57.5
NL East
- Atlanta Braves: Under 101.5
- Philadelphia Phillies: Over 89.5
- New York Mets: Under 81.5
- Miami Marlins: Under 78.5
- Washington Nationals: Under 66.5
NL Central
- Chicago Cubs: Over 84.5
- St. Louis Cardinals: Under 84.5
- Cincinnati Reds: Under 81.5
- Milwaukee Brewers: Under 77.5
- Pittsburgh Pirates: Under 75.5
NL West
- Los Angeles Dodgers: Over 103.5
- Arizona Diamondbacks: Over 83.5
- San Francisco Giants: Over 81.5
- San Diego Padres: Under 83.5
- Colorado Rockies: Under 60.5
Of the above predictions, our group overwhelmingly sided with a few:
- 84.6% say San Francisco Giants over 81.5
- 84.6% say Los Angeles Angels under 72.5
- 84.6% say Miami Marlins under 78.5
- 84.6% say Arizona Diamondbacks over 83.5
- 76.9% say Kansas City Royals under 74.5
- 76.9% say Seattle Mariners under 87.5
- 76.9% say Philadelphia Phillies over 89.5
- 76.9% say Chicago Cubs over 84.5
- 76.9% say Cincinnati Reds under 81.5
- 76.9% say Pittsburgh Pirates under 75.5
Pennant/World Series Prediction:
American League Champion
- New York Yankees – 53.8%
- Texas Rangers – 15.4%
- Houston Astros – 7.7%
- Baltimore Orioles – 7.7%
- Minnesota Twins – 7.7%
- Seattle Mariners – 7.7%
National League Champion
- Atlanta Braves – 53.8%
- Los Angeles Dodgers – 38.5%
- Philadelphia Phillies – 7.7%
World Series Champion
- New York Yankees – 38.5%
- Atlanta Braves – 30.8%
- Los Angeles Dodgers – 23.1%
- Philadelphia Phillies – 7.7%
And so, the New York Yankees are M-SABR’s predicted 2024 World Series Champion!
Player Award Predictions:
AL Rookie of the Year
- Wyatt Langford, TEX – 30.8%
- Jackson Holliday, BAL – 30.8%
- Evan Carter, TEX – 23.1%
- Junior Caminero, TBR – 15.4%
NL Rookie of the Year
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto, LAD – 61.5%
- Shota Imanaga, CHC – 15.4%
- Jackson Chourio, MIL – 7.7%
- Jung Hoo Lee, SFG – 7.7%
- Christian Scott, NYM – 7.7%
AL Cy Young Award
- Corbin Burnes, BAL – 23.1%
- Luis Castillo, SEA – 23.1%
- Kevin Gausman, TOR – 23.1%
- Framber Valdez, HOU – 15.4%
- Tarik Skubal, DET – 7.7%
- Pablo Lopez, MIN – 7.7%
NL Cy Young Award
- Spencer Strider, ATL – 53.8%
- Zac Gallen, ARI – 23.1%
- Logan Webb, SFG – 7.7%
- Zack Wheeler, PHI – 7.7%
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto – 7.7%
AL MVP
- Juan Soto, NYY – 38.5%
- Aaron Judge, NYY – 23.1%
- Yordan Alvarez, HOU – 23.1%
- Kyle Tucker, HOU – 7.7%
- Jose Ramirez, CLE – 7.7%
NL MVP
- Ronald Acuña Jr., ATL – 53.8%
- Shohei Ohtani, LAD – 15.4%
- Mookie Betts, LAD – 15.4%
- Fernando Tatis Jr., SDP – 7.7%
- Bryce Harper, PHI – 7.7%
Categories: 2024 Season Preview, Analysis, Articles, Season Analysis
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