Image: Suzanna Mitchell/Getty Images
2023 Record: 79-83 (.488 win%, 4th in Division)
2024 Payroll: $187,917,909 (10th)
2024 Projected Lineup (Steamer Projections):
1. CF Jung Hoo Lee, .291 AVG/.354 OBP/.430 SLG, 3.4 fWAR
2. DH Jorge Soler, .242 AVG/.332 OBP/.468 SLG, 1.8 fWAR
3. 1B LaMonte Wade Jr., .244 AVG/.348 OBP/.419 SLG, 1.3 fWAR
4. 3B Matt Chapman, .229 AVG/.321 OBP/.414 SLG, 2.7 fWAR
5. LF Michael Conforto, .250 AVG/.342 OBP/.411 SLG, 1.2 fWAR
6. 2B Thairo Estrada, .258 AVG/.313 OBP/.408 SLG, 2.0 fWAR
7. RF Mike Yastrzemski, .234 AVG/.323 OBP/.420 SLG, 1.5 fWAR
8. C Patrick Bailey, .229 AVG/.294 OBP/.364 SLG, 2.7 fWAR
9. SS Nick Ahmed, .229 AVG/.282 OBP/.352 SLG, 0.3 fWAR
10. UTIL Tyler Fitzgerald, .218 AVG/.274 OBP/.360 SLG, 0.0 fWAR
2024 Projected Starting Rotation:
1. Logan Webb, 202.0 IP/3.42 ERA/1.22 WHIP, 4.1 fWAR
2. Blake Snell, 167.0 IP/3.45 ERA/1.26 WHIP, 3.0 fWAR
3. Jordan Hicks, 145.0 IP/3.90 ERA/1.36 WHIP, 1.9 fWAR
4. Kyle Harrison, 159.0 IP/4.10 ERA/1.34 WHIP, 1.7 fWAR
5. Keaton Winn, 85.0 IP/4.03 ERA/1.31 WHIP, 0.8 fWAR
2024 Projected Top 4 Relievers:
1. Camilo Doval, 66.0 IP/3.48 ERA/1.24 WHIP, 0.9 fWAR
2. Tyler Rogers, 64.0 IP/4.30 ERA/1.38 WHIP, 0.0 fWAR
3. Taylor Rogers, 63.0 IP/3.53 ERA/1.24 WHIP, 0.6 fWAR
4. Ryan Walker, 60.0 IP/3.60 ERA/1.26 WHIP, 0.4 fWAR
2023-24 Offseason Recap:
On the eastern and western facing walls of the Sagrada Familia in Barcelona, Spain, there are fifty-meter-high stained-glass windows. Bright, natural light pours through the eastern window, flooding the nave and eastern aisle with hues of red and yellow and orange. Antoni Gaudí, the basilica’s modernisme architect, designed the windows so that visitors could bask in the hope and warmth of God’s tinted, but natural light. It is my guess that Gaudí was not thinking of the San Francisco Giants when he instructed that the team’s distinctive orange pigment dominate the color spectacular of the Sagrada Familia. I, standing in the ocean of light on the ground floor of the modern behemoth, was.
Why? Well, just a couple of days after inking Blake Snell, the prospect of the Giants fielding a competitive 2024 team had shifted noticeably from plausible to expected. They’ve made six multi-year signings, adding a cumulative, Fangraphs-projected 12.9 WAR in the coming year. There were cuts, notably Mitch Haniger, Joc Pederson, and Anthony Desclafani, but depending on your belief in those players’ 2024 prospects, the on-field damage from their absences likely ranges from trivial to non-existent.
On numerous panes of the Sagrada Familia’s eastern windows, a name is scrawled – a saint or sanctuary to which each window is dedicated. Standing there, I imagine that somewhere “Jung Hoo Lee”, “Matt Chapman”, and “Blake Snell” have been carefully etched into a pane. The hope that washes over visitors and churchgoers and myself would be illusory without these players; an orange dream never realized.
The three biggest signings of the Giants’ offseason will likely pave the way for a San Francisco 2024 playoff appearance, and for a surprisingly low cost. The Giants will dole out a combined $57.8 million among the three players in the coming season, with Snell bearing much of that salary weight. Adding on the other, smaller multi-year deals, SF’s additional payroll equals approximately one year of Shohei Ohtani. In the wake of an unsuccessful pursuit of the two-way star, they have spread their available money around to various players at different positions. Not as flashy, sure, but with that dilution comes less inherent risk, both for the coming season and beyond.
Within those new contracts, the Giants have allowed multiple players to receive options, some closer to today’s date than you might think. Blake Snell, Robbie Ray, and Matt Chapman all have the option to explore free agency next year. Jung Hoo Lee can do so in 2027. While it’s unlikely Ray walks, improvements from Snell and Chapman in the coming season might very well leave them unsatisfied with their 2024 agreements. Both are Boras clients, after all. If Lee is hitting his proverbial stride as ‘27 approaches, it wouldn’t take a sabermetric genius to conclude he’s worth more than the roughly $21 million AAV the Giants plan to pay him in his final three years.
The contracts are far from a disaster for San Francisco, but it does imply that there will continue to be turnover in the Bay Area as they search for long term solutions. Marco Luciano has been floated as a potential third base transplant, Bryce Eldridge’s athleticism could land him safely in a corner outfield spot, and Carson Whisenhunt’s changeup-based arsenal could propel him into a top-of-the-rotation role. There are viable options to fill the eventual holes of Chapman, Lee, and Snell, but it requires the Giants either relying heavily on their farm system or dipping back into the free agent market. The 2024 offseason’s focus on short-term production will put a competitive team on the field right now, but the reliance on older talent leaves medium- and long-term questions unanswered.
2024 Regular Season Preview:
The Giants are well-positioned for a playoff spot in 2024. Per FanGraphs, they have a 44.4% chance to make the playoffs and a 35.5% chance to clinch a wild card, both of which I feel are underestimated. This is a team with a solid 80-win floor and a relatively high 95-win ceiling. Granted, the lineup isn’t full of players you can dream heavily on (I don’t think Yaz is going to pull a 2020-esque 158 wRC+ out of his hat), but none of them are in danger of plunging off a cliff either. That 95-win ceiling is partially dependent on the ability of their young stars, namely Patrick Bailey, Kyle Harrison, and Marco Luciano.
Bailey is the safest overall bet of the three – his defense is stellar and, despite only sporting a 78 wRC+ last year, amassed 2.8 WAR in less than 100 games. His Spring Training offensive numbers are not fantastic, but he has put up impressive seasons at the plate in the minors – even a 95-100 wRC+ would lift his overall value to a 5-6 WAR player.
Harrison is the Giants’ 2nd ranked prospect and the 23rd ranked overall in baseball. His calling card is the fastball, which won’t blow hitters away with its velocity but still generates whiffs with a flat vertical approach angle and above-average extension. And while the fastball was indeed solid in 2023, the Giants’ lefty struggled mightily with his secondaries, giving up xWOBAs of .340 or above on his other three pitches. And, save for a 29-inning stint in High-A, there isn’t much to get wildly excited about in his minor league stats either. This isn’t to say Kyle Harrison is destined for ‘pen. He is 22 years old and has plenty of time to develop both better secondaries and the ability to command them. But his performance in 2024 will come with large error bars, especially if he’ll be facing down the barrel of a starter’s workload.
If you haven’t seen this before, please indulge yourself:
This video was my introduction to Marco Luciano. Since then I’ve never quite been able to temper my excitement regarding the Giants’ shortstop prospect, and I’m hoping my continued belief will pay off. Luciano has struggled as of recent, both in the upper minors and with the big league club. As of writing this, recent reports indicate that veteran Nick Ahmed is more likely to start the year at short, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Luciano shares time with Ahmed as the season progresses. His performance is not as crucial to the Giants’ immediate success as the aforementioned two – San Francisco has stopgaps in place if Luciano bottoms out. But if he can live up to that ceiling, if his fielding can be adequate enough to allow his monstrous power to rear its head, the Giants might just find themselves nipping at the heels of the Dodgers.
San Francisco is among baseball’s safest bets to be respectfully competitive in 2024. There is potential for a high 90s-win season, as is there for a low 80s. But, while that sounds somewhat dull and a little like a cruel setup for a disappointing playoff elimination (possibly to a historic rival), I ask you not to fret. The season is long, and the wins will be plenty. In all likelihood you won’t remember 2024 with particular fondness, nor with acute trauma. But maybe that’s not the point of baseball. However you eventually choose to ruminate on the coming season, right now one thing is true. There’s a competitive team on the peninsula.
Player to Watch #1: CF Jung Hoo Lee
The KBO MVP in 2022 and a recipient of five consecutive gold gloves, Jung Hoo Lee has serious upside. He hasn’t had a wRC+ below 130 since 2018 and, in 2023 and 2022, walked more than twice the amount of times he struck out. However, during his 2023 KBO campaign, Lee ran up a 59% ground ball rate and a paltry 28.5% fly ball rate, which would have placed him second and bottom ten in baseball among qualified hitters, respectively. He’s not the smash-and-whiff type of outfielder that tantalizes, but his walk rate and ability to avoid the K should help provide serious offensive value.
There are concerns from some that the difference in velocity between the KBO and MLB will lead to a spike in strikeouts and a dip in walks, but I’m hesitant to buy into that narrative yet. Ha-Seong Kim saw just that when he came stateside in 2021, and his overall offensive production suffered greatly. But Kim’s struggles were apparent before he stepped foot in downtown San Diego – the shortstop posted a measly .481 OPS in his first spring training. Jung Hoo Lee? His OPS is sitting comfortably north of 1.000. Spring Training stats should always be approached cautiously, but so far Lee hasn’t succumbed to the same early struggles as Kim. Both players generally profile as light-hitting position players with good plate discipline, which hopefully lends a morsel of credence to Lee’s preseason success.
The gauge on Lee’s glove is somewhat split. Baseball America gives him a 50 grade on the 20-80 scale, Sports Info Solutions describes him as “someone who can hold his own in CF” but probably is better in the corners, and MLB.com regarded him as an “above average centerfielder.” Those are not wildly different, I’ll grant you, but they do reflect some uncertainty about Lee’s ability to provide immediate, above-average centerfield defensive value in a park as big as Oracle. It’s no guarantee that Jung Hoo Lee will emerge from the 2024 season as one of San Francisco’s best players – but, given his stellar offensive track record and a defensive profile that bottoms out at “solid corner outfielder,” I think he’ll be just fine.
Player to Watch #2: SP Jordan Hicks
You might be reading this and think I made a mistake. Whoops, he typed “S” instead of “R” and made Jordan Hicks, a fireballing reliever who struck out almost 30% of opposing batters and sported a 3.22 FIP in 2023 look a whole lot more valuable. I’m here to inform you that, in fact, I am right – Hicks will be entering the year in the Giants’ starting rotation. Before we delve into whether or not he can handle the workload, let’s remind ourselves of Hicks’ arsenal. His sinker sits 100.1, and can move like this:
In 2023, Hicks backed off the sweeper a bit in favor of a four-seam and traditional slider. The slider got whacked around a bit in a small sample size, but both the four-seam and sweeper produced better results — the sweeper got 10% more whiffs and both pitches produced xWOBAs below .220. He did struggle with walks, giving 11% of batters a free pass, but for a pitcher with such a powerful arsenal, Hicks has been remarkably consistent. His walk rate has hovered just above 10% for most of his career, and his sinker’s in-zone rate is a respectable 56%.
For the most part, control doesn’t seem to be as big of an issue as command has been. Of those 56% of sinkers in the zone, over half have been located in the heart of the plate. As for the sweeper, just 28% of his pitches have been in the shadow zone, a strip around the edges of the strike zone where pitchers have the most success (especially with secondaries). As his outings go longer, that command issue might exacerbate the walks and/or give hitters more opportunities to do damage.
So far, Hicks has successfully corralled his loud arsenal, but will those control issues balloon when given the starting nod? It’s a real question, and one that could prove difficult to answer. Hicks has started eight games at the major league level, all in 2022 with St. Louis. His longest start was five innings against, who else, the Giants. He did fine, but that year was too small a sample size to glean any real insight from.
In the minors, Hicks did start and produced similar ERAs and FIPs as his major league years, but the last time he had anywhere close to a real starter’s workload was in 2017 between A and High-A. I truly hope Jordan Hicks can do it – he’s got two great pitches and enough filler behind them to survive. But given his injury history and the time since he has shouldered this kind of workload, there’s a real risk that he’s back in the bullpen or worse come midseason.
Player to Watch #3: OF Luis Matos
Since entering the minors at 17 years old, Matos has raked. Save for one odd stint in High-A, the adjusted numbers are flat out insane. And, at just 22 years old, he’s raking again; this time in Spring Training. Now I’ve already used Spring Training stats to argue for a player’s subsequent regular season success once – doing it twice is a sin I’ll admit I’m hesitant to commit. But Matos’ power output seems to be genuinely stronger. His 2023 ISO was a paltry 0.092, but his spring training number sits at a ballooned .353. This won’t continue into the regular season, and I’m not ready to say he’ll advance much beyond the 45 raw power grade assigned by FanGraphs, but it does seem to be a step in the right direction.
Matos’ 70-grade hit tool is his ticket to greatness, but there have been enough flashes of power output in the minors that I’m willing to dream on him as an eventual 20-30 home-run corner outfielder. With a recent injury to Austin Slater and a relatively uninspiring 2023 campaign from Michael Conforto, there are myriad ways that Matos could find himself penciled into the lineup. Considering his impressive track record and young age, I’d find it hard to believe that Matos won’t eventually see success at the major league level.
2024 Record Prediction: 88-74
Future Outlook
As the sun sets in Barcelona, the Sagrada Familia changes color. The western window is not tinted with warm colors of sunrise but cooler colors – a heavy, forest green and a dark, brooding blue. The setting sun casts darker tones across the nave and its massive columns, shrouding visitors in ominous anticipation of the night to come. Seated in the pew, I am again inclined to think of the Giants’ predicament. How fitting it is that each day, the bright orange streaming through the eastern wall must eventually come to face the dark blue that sits across from it. It’s a fact of life – well, 21st century life – for Giants fans.
The West runs through Los Angeles. Today, tomorrow, and for years to come. The 2023 Diamondbacks proved that baseball’s playoff structure can easily lend itself to upsets – anyone can beat anyone. But the Dodgers’ regular season dominance will likely continue, and for anyone to dethrone them as the NL West champion might require a run differential so fun it borders on delirious. There is a good team in the bay, but temper the faith, Giants fans. For now, a Wild Card will do.
Categories: 2024 Season Preview, Articles, Season Analysis
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