Image: Brett Coomer/Houston Chronicle
On April 10, 2023, baseball fans across the world opened their phones and jumped on Twitter to see an unexpected series of tweets from a retired Houston Astros catcher. Six-year vet Evan Gattis openly admitted to being on performance-enhancing drugs during the season, hearing trash can bangs to signal a pitch, and already knowing the exact pitch to hit a home run in the 2017 American League Championship Series.
It’s been six years since that scandalous, asterisk-ridden World Series win, and honestly, as a baseball fan, I’ve started to forget about what the Astros had done. But after Gattis’ tweets, I cannot stop thinking about how the Astros forever scarred the baseball world.
The Houston Astros used outside cameras to steal signs, banged on trash cans to give players a sound cue to know what pitches were coming, and allegedly wore buzzers underneath their jerseys to know the pitch before it came. The bangs would signal an offspeed pitch, and a no bang would signal a fastball. With a star-studded lineup with players like Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Alex Bregman, George Springer, and more, it is so hard to believe that they needed to cheat.
I have read articles and watched videos about these acts, but very few reference the statistical evidence on how these trash can bangs affected the outcome of the game. I wanted to dig deep and find out how much the Astros truly benefited from hearing these trash can bangs, and I was very curious to see if they benefitted even when they did not hear a bang.
I found a data set from signstealingscandal.com that has data for the Houston Astros throughout the 2017 MLB Regular Season and recorded every at-bat, listening if there was a loud bang. I used R to organize the data to form graphs that display the outcomes of their at-bats with bangs and without bangs, and also what pitches they saw with bangs and without bangs to statistically see how much the cheating helped the Astros.
I wanted to start off with the most notable cheater who had the most success throughout the 2017 season, Jose Altuve. In 2017, Altuve had a slash line of .346 AVG/.410 OBP/.547 SLG with 24 HR and 81 RBI, and a wRC+ of 160. To cap off this amazing season, Altuve was awarded the AL MVP, Silver Slugger Award, an All-Star appearance, and a World Series ring.
*key to read Outcomes- *B – ball in dirt, B – ball, C – called strike, E – in play, runs scored, F – foul ball, S – strike swinging, W- swinging strike, blocked by catcher, X – in play, out, NA – unknown
*key to read Pitches Seen: BR- breaking ball, CH- change up, FB- fastball
**FOR ALL GRAPHS- green is NO BANG, red is YES BANG
To start with Altuve’s outcomes throughout the 2017 MLB regular season, the outcomes we want to focus on are *B- ball in dirt, E- ball in play with runs scoring, S- swinging strike, and X- in play with outs.
When the trash can was banged during Altuve’s at-bats, he was 5.48% more likely to have a ball in the dirt, 5.84% more often to put the ball in play and score a run, 3.9% less often to swing and miss, and 3.6% more often to put the ball in play but record an out. At first glance, a 5.0% increase does not seem like a huge difference, but at the highest level of baseball, such small edges can create immense changes in the game.
Moving onto the pitch-type data, it is clear that the Astros cheating plans were even more impactful. When Jose Altuve heard a trash can bang, there was a 71% chance of a breaking ball, 4% of a changeup, and a 25% chance of a fastball. When Jose Altuve did not hear a trash can bang, there was a roughly 35% chance of a breaking ball, 7% of a changeup, and 56% chance of a fastball.
When Altuve heard a bang, there was a 7 out of 10 chance that it was a breaking ball, and even without the bang, the majority of the time, the pitch would be a fastball. So even when no bangs were heard, these players were still actively cheating and were given an enormous edge above the opposing teams.
It’s also important to note that in this data set, Altuve was the player with the least amount of trash can bangs (24 bangs), but it is possible that he was wearing the buzzer to signal throughout the season, as MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred has said MLB could not be 100% certain the Astros didn’t use buzzers.
Carlos Correa
(2017 Stats: .315 AVG/.391 OBP/.550 SLG, 24 HR, 84 RBI, 152 wRC+, 5.0 fWAR)
In 2017, Carlos Correa was selected to the American League All-Star team and finished 17th in MVP voting. Since the 2017 season, Correa has only been selected one other time (in 2021).
When looking at the outcomes of the bangs, Correa had 2% more often balls in the dirt, 1.3% more often balls in play with runs scoring, 3.55% less often swings and misses, and 2.53% more balls in play while recording an out.
For Correa’s pitches seen with bangs, Correa saw roughly 70% breaking balls, 8% changeups, and 21% fastballs. For pitches without bangs, Correa saw around 24% breaking balls, 5% changeups, and 69.8% fastballs.
George Springer
(2017 Stats: .283 AVG/.367 OBP/.522 SLG, 34 HR, 85 RBI, 140 wRC+, 4.6 fWAR)
In 2017, George Springer was selected to the American League All-Star team, was a Silver Slugger, and finished 13th in MVP voting. He established himself as a top MLB outfielder, however, when looking at the stats, it is clear that Springer was aided by the sign-stealing system.
The most notable changes are that George Springer saw 2% more balls in the dirt, 9% more balls, 1% fewer called strikes, 2% more balls in play but recording an out, and 7% fewer swinging strikes on pitches with bangs. Out of all of the Houston star players, Springer’s changes are the most dramatic for the outcomes because the percentile differences are the greatest of any other Astros All-Star caliber player.
With the trash can bangs, Springer saw 65% breaking balls, 15% changeups, and 20% fastballs. Without the bangs, Springer saw around 24% breaking balls, 6% changeups, and 70% fastballs. Again, there is clear evidence that with or without the bangs, the Astros’ batters knew what was coming. With no bangs, it was most likely that a fastball was coming. With bangs, the pitch was likely to be a breaking ball.
Alex Bregman
(2017 Stats: .284 AVG/.352 OBP/.475 SLG, 19 HR, 71 RBI, 123 wRC+, 4.4 fWAR)
Although Alex Bregman was not selected to the All-Star team or awarded anything by MLB, he had an amazing season. Finishing top 50 in fWAR and having this slash line in only his second year in the bigs is quite impressive. However, after looking at these numbers comparing at-bats with and without the trash can bangs, one must seriously doubt that Bregman is truly as talented as baseball fans worldwide previously thought.
With the trash can bangs, Bregman saw 1% more balls in the dirt, 3% more balls called, 3% more balls in play that scored runs, and 2% fewer swinging strikes.
Bregman roughly saw 64% breaking balls, 16% changeups, and 20% fastballs at the plate on pitches delivered with bangs. Without the bangs, Bregman saw 26% breaking balls, 6% changeups, and 68% fastballs.
From the Astros’ leadoff hitter to their cleanup hitter, each player blatantly cheated using the trash can banging system to gain an advantage over the other team to score runs. Generally, Altuve, Correa, Springer, and Bregman’s outcomes all benefitted by seeing more balls, hitting more balls in play, and swinging and missing less often.
When the trash cans banged, there was around a 67% chance that they would see a breaking ball, and without the bangs, there would be a 64% chance of seeing a fastball. These players knew what pitches were coming, and their outcomes showed that the cheating significantly enhanced their play.
As for the punishment, the Astros organization was fined $5 million, lost a first and second-round draft pick for the 2020 and 2021 MLB Drafts, and the GM and members of the coaching staff were suspended.
The Astros flat-out cheated. Their players willingly participated in the cheating, and the stats prove that their batting was significantly improved with the trash can bang system. Yet not one player was suspended.
The Astros have received tons of hate from media and fans worldwide, and rightfully so, since they dishonestly played the game of baseball to win a World Series. However, there have been lots of rumors and talk around the MLB that the Astros were not the only team involved with the sign stealing. In fact, many players have spoken up and have clearly hinted at many other teams actively cheating.
In an interview back in October 2021 on The Chris Rose Rotation podcast, Chris Bassitt stated that “Houston was not the only team doing stuff… only one team essentially got caught doing it, or was the guinea pig to clean the whole league up.”
Miguel Cabrera told ESPN in March of 2021, “In the end … it’s baseball, [Try to] go ahead and do it like those guys did.”
In an interview in March 2020, reporters from USA Today asked Kris Bryant if he thought the Astros were the only team sign-stealing, and he responded by saying, “No. Absolutely not. I definitely think others were. I don’t know if other teams were doing it that same way, but people are always trying to find a way for that competitive advantage. Pitchers have things in their gloves. Batters groove their bats. People have done that since the beginning of the game.”
Considering that many other teams may be involved in this sign-stealing scandal, it is hard to certainly know that the Astros were gaining an advantage over other teams if other ball clubs were doing the same sorts of things. It adds lots of complexity and uncertainty to if the Astros significantly cheated. There is a lot unknown to the public.
Are other ball clubs cheating and using similar sign-stealing schemes? Did the Astros truly have that advantage if many other teams were doing the same thing? What is the MLB doing to stop every single team from running these shady sign-stealing schemes? There are just so many questions left unanswered, and a lot of information still lies behind closed doors.
Baseball has always been a shady sport. Throughout the history of baseball, there have been countless cheating scandals: the 1919 Black Sox, the Steroid Era, and now the Astros stealing signs. In addition, we all know the individual records tainted by steroid use or some other negative mark. The Houston Astros stealing signs to help win a World Series adds to what seems to be a never-ending list of cheaters winning the most coveted trophies and highest awards in baseball.
So when seeing this Astros scandal, should baseball fans across the world call out this cheating as a horrific act that needs to be punished harshly, or should the fans think that their sign-stealing was just a normal part of baseball in which many other teams are partaking?
The Astros’ cheating system led to a dishonest team winning it all and robbed many players of awards and designations. And it is justified to think that the Astros organization is a disgrace to baseball since they clearly and willingly violated the rules to gain a competitive advantage.
However, it is also valid to think that many other teams were cheating but did not get caught and that the Astros are not as bad as you think when seeing that the whole league is probably cheating. Both viewpoints can be argued well, but not enough information is known to 100% know the true effect of the Astros’ sign-stealing scheme.
The data from signstealingscandal.com shows that the Astros were able to gain a competitive advantage on offense by having better offensive outcomes and being able to know what pitch was coming. But it is hard to know what these numbers and percentages mean when there is no other data to compare it to.
Overall, the Astros have contributed to harming the image of baseball and added to the shadiness and dishonesty associated with the sport. Most likely, the Astros’ sign-stealing is just the tip of the iceberg, and much other cheating throughout the whole MLB goes unnoticed.
If you are not cheating to gain that advantage over the other team, maybe you’re just not doing enough.
M-SABR 
such a biased article. maybe you should look at the guys that actually benefited a lot more like Marwin Gonzalez who hit over .300 that year and barely sniffs .220??