Image: Julio Cortez, AP

In 2023, MLB instituted a variety of changes to gameplay, including widening the bases, restricting pickoff attempts, limiting the defensive shift, and most notably introducing the pitch timer. With these implementations, it was the hope that game times would be decreased and offense would see an uptick in output, creating a more enjoyable fan experience overall. 

Well, alongside the introduction of the PitchCom device which helped shave five minutes off of games between 2021 and 2022, the pitch clock brought game times below three hours for the first time since 2011. The average game in ‘23 lasted 2:42, a 24-minute decrease from ‘22 and the lowest since 1984 (damn, my Tigers’ championship drought has officially outlasted the three-hour baseball game).

As for an offensive uptick, the results were less significant. Nonetheless, the league batting average came in at .248, the highest total since 2019 (when the baseballs were juiced). To add to the excitement, pickoff rules and bigger bases necessitated more basepath risks, with 0.72 bases being stolen per major league game, the highest such total since 1997. This was a massive increase from previous seasons, when stealing bases had become a lost art. In 2021, the stolen base per game value reached 0.46, its lowest since 1968 (back when the uniforms were five-pound wool and speed training didn’t exist).

While the increase in steals is fun and all, limiting pitchers to just two pickoff attempts per plate appearance allows a runner to have a pretty good idea of when a guy isn’t going to come over. Throwing over twice in a row is basically giving the runner the green light on the third go, which in turn lets them take a pretty good guess that a guy won’t throw over a second-straight time. So, if a pitcher attempts a pickoff, a runner should be off to the races on the next pitch. This completely takes controlling the running game out of a pitcher’s hands and entirely onto his catcher, who is disadvantaged due to better jumps on the basepath.

In total, the rule changes proved successful, as MLB attendance, viewership, and ratings all increased for the first time since the 2012 season. Much of this can be attributed to decreases in game times, as complaints about games dragging on in previous seasons had begun to pile up. So, how exactly was the pitch clock designed and what impact did it have on major league pitchers?

The Pitch Clock

As a reminder of exactly what rules were in place in 2023 concerning the pitch timer, there is a 30-second period between batters. For each pitch, this decreases to 15 seconds and 20 seconds with runners on. For 2024, new changes have been announced, with the 20-second runners-on pitch clock being reduced to 18 seconds.

The above timing is enforced at the point when the pitcher begins his delivery, while batters must be in the box and alert to the pitcher by the eight-second mark. Violations of either rule would result in an automatic ball for pitchers or automatic strike for hitters.

Though it took some adjustment for many during spring training, the pitch clock didn’t prove to be too harmful in terms of violations. During the 2023 season, there were 1,033 violations caused by pitchers or batters in 2,430 total regular season games (0.43/game). This number progressively decreased as the season went on and teams became more comfortable with the change. As a result, I would expect this number to be far lower in ‘24.

Pitch timer violations were more harmful for some pitchers than others, with Toronto’s Chris Bassit and Pittsburgh’s Johan Oviedo tied for the league lead with 11 each. Due to Oviedo accruing a substantial number of violations in pertinent moments, he produced -0.8 run value as a result of the automatic balls charged. Though this is poor, it’s also an outlier. In full, the pitch clock truly wasn’t harmful in terms of game impact.

However, there is an underlying, more concerning issue associated with the implementation of the pitch timer. For pitchers in particular, there is a certain risk presented, especially for those who tended to take their time prior to the rule change. Hurrying one’s routine or mechanics can be physically detrimental, especially when there is less recovery time between each pitch. Fatigue sets in more quickly, and a pitcher could be impacted in terms of both health and in-game performance as a result.

Though it’s difficult to draw any causality between the pitch clock and health, there is enough data to draw from the 2023 season and before to analyze the major patterns associated with the timer and pitcher performance. Using individual pitch tempo data from Baseball Savant, let’s take a deeper look at pitch clock and performance.

Pitcher Tempo Analysis

Note – All data analyzed below is for pitchers who threw at least 140 pitches with the bases empty in each of 2022 and 2023.

In 2022, the average time between pitches with bases empty among qualified pitchers was 18.3 seconds (this includes time between batters). Due to the implementation of the pitch timer, this number decreased to 15.4 in 2023. A similar percent change was seen with runners on base, with time between pitches decreasing from 23.2 to 19.1 seconds between ‘22 and ‘23. Overall, average pitch tempo decreased from 20.1 to 16.8 seconds, for a 3.3-second change per pitch on average between the two seasons.

When considering individual pitchers, it was clear that the biggest leaps in decreasing pitch tempo happened amongst those who were particularly slow in 2022 and that only minor changes were seen in quick-tempo pitchers. The following is a list of qualified pitchers who saw the largest decrease from ‘22 to ‘23 in time between pitches delivered:

1. Giovanny Gallegos, STL, 9.0 seconds (went from slowest to 24th slowest)
2. Devin Williams, MIL, 8.0 seconds
3. Emilio Pagán, MIN, 7.4 seconds 
4. Kyle Finnegan, WAS, 7.3 seconds
5. Josh Hader, SD, 7.3 seconds
6. Taylor Rogers, SF, 6.8 seconds
7. Camilo Doval, SF, 6.7 seconds
8. Jake Diekman, CHW/TB, 6.6 seconds
9. Alexis Díaz, CIN, 6.4 seconds
10. Paul Sewald, SEA/ARI, 6.4 seconds

For these guys, tempo changes of this magnitude are significant enough to potentially necessitate some mechanical alterations. At the very least, fatigue sets in at a much quicker rate. However, and to no surprise, all of the above pitchers are relievers. It becomes apparent through the data that slow-paced starters struggled to get these times down as they looked to conserve energy and go deep into games. Let’s take a look at the starters who saw the largest tempo changes:

1. Shohei Ohtani, LAA, 5.8 seconds
2. Tanner Houck, BOS, 5.7 seconds
3. Martín Pérez, TEX, 5.3 seconds
4. Michael Kopech, CHW, 5.2 seconds
5. Brayan Bello, BOS, 5.0 seconds

For a list of all qualified pitchers and their tempo changes between 2022 and 2023, click here.

So, AL MVP Shohei Ohtani managed to knock off the most seconds amongst starters after the rule change, and this doesn’t really come as a surprise. Ohtani was the slowest starting pitcher in the league in 2022, something which came with the implementation of PitchCom. It’s safe to say the superstar likes to call his own game, and the PitchCom led to a bit more contemplation than usual.

In any case, when considering how the pitch clock may have impacted performance, Ohtani was still dominant on the mound in 2023 before his pitching season was cut short by an elbow injury. However, we hold high expectations for the MVP, and his production simply didn’t live up to that of 2022. Ohtani saw a significant 3.2 drop-off in fWAR between the two seasons, and while some of this can be attributed to throwing less innings, he still struck batters out at a lower clip and allowed walks and runs at far higher rates. And, who knows? Maybe the faster pace of play impacted his health to some extent.

For the other starters who significantly hastened their tempo in ‘23, the results were much the same. Houck became a full-time starter and struggled mightily to stay out of pitch violation trouble. His career-worst 5.01 ERA was clearly a dropoff from previous performances. Pérez saw a massive 3.5 decline in fWAR. Kopech’s value decreased by 2.0 while arguably being the worst pitcher in all of baseball, and Bello remained consistent with his ‘22 performance.

Though there are a number of factors at play in determining how well a pitcher performs, we can, at the very least, hypothesize that starters were more greatly impacted by the pitch clock than relievers. Starters’ changes in fWAR and tempo between ‘22 and ‘23 were more heavily correlated (0.55) than those of relievers (0.35). While correlation doesn’t imply causation, it does lead us to believe that starters were likely more strained from a performance standpoint than relievers. This would make sense, too, when considering the staminal game starters endure as opposed to the fast-paced, max-effort environment relievers face.

Even for the back-end guys who sped up the most following the rule change, there were obvious production fall-offs. Giovanny Gallegos, who sped up a whopping nine seconds after being the slowest pitcher in all of baseball in 2022, saw massive declines in all categories, culminating in a 1.1 drop in fWAR. Similarly, Devin Williams, while still one of the league’s elite relievers, produced 0.4 less fWAR.

In any case, the pitch clock has significantly increased pitcher tempos across the board and game times as a result. Now, a season in, we should expect fewer production declines and hopefully less pace-induced injuries (assuming some of this came into play in 2023).

And so, in the league’s effort to increase pace of play and engage viewers, let’s recognize the most fast-paced arms in the league in 2023: Jakob Junis (13.7 seconds), Jesús Luzardo (14.0 seconds), Mitch Keller (14.1 seconds), Rich Hill (14.2 seconds), and Taijuan Walker (14.2 seconds). Also, shout out to San Fran Sam Long for being the only qualified pitcher to slow his tempo (by 0.7 seconds) between ‘22 and ‘23 despite the implementation of the pitch clock.

Categories: Analysis, Articles

Tags: Analysis, Pitch Clock, Research