Image: Stan Szeto, USA TODAY Sports

2023 Record: 82-80 (.506 win%, 3rd in Division)

2024 Payroll: $152,995,453 (14^th)

2024 Projected Lineup:

1. 2B Xander Bogaerts, .276 AVG/.347 OBP/.431 SLG, 3.7 fWAR

2. RF Fernando Tatis Jr., .273 AVG/.346 OBP/.525 SLG, 5.7 fWAR

3. 1B Jake Cronenworth, .249 AVG/.330 OBP/.409 SLG, 2.0 fWAR

4. DH Manny Machado, .269 AVG/.337 OBP/.476 SLG, 4.1 fWAR

5. SS Ha-Seong Kim, .247 AVG/.329 OBP/.387 SLG, 3.3 fWAR

6. LF Jurickson Profar, .237 AVG/.325 OBP/.368 SLG, 0.4 fWAR

7. C Luis Campusano, .261 AVG/.318 OBP/.421 SLG, 1.6 fWAR

8. 3B Graham Pauley, .248 AVG/.311 OBP/.405 SLG, 0.4 fWAR

9. CF Jackson Merrill, .251 AVG/.294 OBP/.383 SLG, 0.8 fWAR

10. UTL Eguy Rosario, .238 AVG/.303 OBP/.385 SLG, 0.3 fWAR

2024 Projected Starting Rotation:

1. RHP Yu Darvish, 174.0 IP/4.06 ERA/1.17 WHIP, 2.8 fWAR

2. RHP Joe Musgrove, 173.0 IP/3.61 ERA/1.17 WHIP, 2.9 fWAR

3. RHP Dylan Cease, 174.0 IP/3.91 ERA/1.29 WHIP, 3.0 fWAR

4. RHP Michael King, 156.0 IP/3.67 ERA/1.23 WHIP, 2.4 fWAR

5. RHP Jhony Brito, 131.0 IP/4.22 ERA/1.30 WHIP, 1.1 fWAR

2024 Projected Top 4 Relievers:

1. RHP Robert Suarez, 65.0 IP/4.10 ERA/1.27 WHIP, 0.2 fWAR

2. LHP Yuki Matsui, 64.0 IP/3.34 ERA/1.22 WHIP, 1.0 fWAR

3. RHP Enyel De Los Santos, 66.0 IP/3.92 ERA/1.24 WHIP, 0.3 fWAR

4. LHP Wandy Peralta, 62.0 IP/3.87 ERA/1.34 WHIP, 0.1 fWAR

The End of an Era

The past decade in San Diego has been filled with disappointment. When General Manager A.J. Preller was hired back in 2014, he immediately showcased a desire to spend money, and it felt as though, for the first time, the Padres were one of the league’s bigger market teams. This was exciting for the fan base, understanding that the years to come would be filled with big move after big move. 

You would think, though, as we a near the 10-year mark of Preller’s hiring, that the Padres would have actually had some late-season success. This doesn’t necessarily require that the organization win its first World Series (though this would be ideal), but you’d like to at least see some consistency when it comes to making the playoffs. 

Since Preller was hired, the Padres have only made the postseason twice, in the shortened 2020 season and in 2022. ‘22 saw a great run for the squad, as they bested the Mets and the Dodgers until faltering against Philadelphia in the NLCS. As for this past season, San Diego struggled to win games despite posting a heavily positive run differential (+104), finishing just one game over .500 while spending the third-most on player salary in Major League Baseball.

Following last season’s conclusion, Padres fans were saddened by the news of majority owner Peter Seidler’s passing. Seidler was integral in allowing Preller to spend big and ensuring that the team would remain competitive year-in and year-out. It is certainly disappointing that the legendary owner never got to see his team make it all the way.

In defense of San Diego, though, competing with the Dodgers every year is tough, especially when it comes to spending, and the Padres held their own for some time. Now, it feels like the end of an era…a failed era. San Diego enters this season just above the league average payroll, as they cleared substantial cap this offseason. My guess would be that Preller’s job security is not particularly high at the moment, and I hate to break it to you, Padres fans, but a rebuild may be imminent.

2023-24 Offseason Recap:

In truth, I don’t think Preller knew what to do this offseason. Ownership pressured to cut payroll and limit spending, something the San Diego GM has little experience with. The lack of a clear vision was pretty evident in the turbulent offseason the Padres put together.

First off, the team was losing a lot of its most important arms, including Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell, elite closer Josh Hader, solid starting pitchers – Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha -, and a couple important bullpen arms – Nick Martínez and Luis García. Re-signing players like these would be expensive and definitely not a part of the immediate game plan to cut costs.

Given this, the best way to acquire some replacement arms at a cheaper price would be to wheel and deal, a more common characteristic of Preller’s work. And so, he did just that. Since winning seemingly came secondary to cutting costs this offseason for the Padres, trading a player with only one year of control remaining, Juan Soto, seemed like the obvious move.

The Soto stay in San Diego didn’t last very long, just a season and a half. At the ‘22 trade deadline, the Padres cleaned house in the way of prospects to acquire Soto, and yes, they made a run in the playoffs that year. However, in full, it doesn’t appear the deal ended up living up to Preller and the fan base’s hopes. 

In December, Soto was dealt to the Yankees alongside outfielder Trent Grisham for right-handed starters Michael King, Jhony Brito, and Randy Vásquez, prospect arm Drew Thorpe, and veteran catcher Kyle Higashioka. So, the Padres got a high-quantity return for Soto, but to me, the move is confusing. Rather than build up the farm system for the future, the Padres are still trying to win now…or are they?

Yes, Brito and Vásquez are young and inexperienced with plenty of potential, but the additions of King and Higashioka lead me to believe that this deal could have been consolidated into a couple of top prospects. Instead, Preller chose this route, one that feels like a half-hearted attempt to remain relevant.

The win-now ideology became even more prevalent a couple of weeks into spring training, when the Padres made a move on starting pitcher Dylan Cease. For the righty strikeout artist, the Padres gave up Thorpe who had been acquired in the Soto deal, prospects Samuel Zavala and Jairo Iriarte, and veteran reliever Steven Wilson. The three prospects dealt were all within the top eight in the San Diego system, which seems like a big bet on an arm who is known to be wild.

In any case, though, I do like Cease, who is entering his age-28 season with two years remaining on his rookie deal. There is certainly a ton of room for improvement following a substandard 2023 performance, which came after his Cy Young runner-up showing in ‘22. Nonetheless, Preller is once again sacrificing the future of the organization for a futile win-now motion.

Other key moves from the offseason to sure up the staff included signing Japanese left-handed reliever Yuki Matsui, KBO product Woo Suk Go, and veteran lefty Wandy Peralta. Bullpen moves like these could be greatly important and may add needed surety at the back-end of the staff given the young, unproven fifth option in the starting rotation.     

Below are the main big-league roster moves the Padres made this offseason:

Key Acquisitions:

• Tucupita Marcano, UTL – claimed off waivers
• Enyel De Los Santos, RHP – traded from CLE
• Michael King, RHP – traded from NYY
• Jhony Brito, RHP – traded from NYY
• Randy Vásquez, RHP – traded from NYY
• Kyle Higashioka, C – traded from NYY
• Yuki Matsui, LHP – five years, $28 million
• Woo Suk Go, RHP – two years, $4.5 million
• Wandy Peralta, RHP – four years, $16.5 million
• Jurickson Profar, OF – one year, $1 million (re-signed)
• Dylan Cease, RHP – traded from CHW

Key Departures:

• Blake Snell, LHP – free agent
• Michael Wacha, RHP – two years, $32 million with KC
• Josh Hader, LHP – five years $95 million with HOU
• Gary Sánchez, C – one year, $3 million with MIL
• Luis García, RHP – one year, $4.25 million with LAA
• Seth Lugo, RHP – three years, $45 million with KC
• Nelson Cruz, DH – retired
• Rich Hill, LHP – free agent
• Nick Martínez, RHP – two years, $26 million with CIN
• Tim Hill, LHP – one year, $1.8 million with CHW
• Austin Nola, C – one year, $975,000 with KC
• Scott Barlow, RHP – traded to CLE
• Juan Soto, OF – traded to NYY
• Trent Grisham, OF – traded to NYY 
• Steven Wilson, RHP – traded to CHW

2024 Regular Season Preview:

Following an extremely active offseason, this San Diego squad looks drastically different from a year ago. While the offense lost a few key pieces, there were no moves made to sure up this end of the roster, with the primary focus being placed on the pitching staff. I do think, given the drastic number of arms lost to free agency, Preller did a manageable job of piecing together a pretty solid group of pitchers.

Rotation

Headlining the rotation is veteran righty Yu Darvish. Before the ‘23 season, the then 36-year-old was extended by the Padres to the tune of a six-year, $108 million deal. This contract will extend through his age-41 season, which definitely brings about questions of longevity. What will Darvish look like by 2028? At the moment, however, he seems to be doing alright. The pitch movement on his nine(!) options remain aggregately elite, while he hasn’t seen any substantial decline in velocity. The results weren’t outstanding last year, but you won’t see anyone complaining about a 3.82 xERA. The plethora of options also gives Darvish the opportunity to change his mix quite frequently; if done effectively, this could allow for long-term success even in the case of a velocity decline.

While Darvish is sure to be consistent, 31-year-old righty Joe Musgrove has the ability to be elite. Injuries limited him to just 97.1 innings, but he’s ready to go for the ‘24 campaign. A clean bill of health could mean an All-Star trip for Musgrove. This isn’t a stretch to say either, as the right-hander is elite in almost every area. In his limited time in ‘23, he finished in the league’s 80th percentile or higher in xERA, opponent hard hit/barrel rate, chase rate, and walk rate. So, he’s both encouraging the chase while limiting walks — a rare combination in the modern game. Combining a spinny fastball with hard-breaking offspeed options, Musgrove is a bear for opposing hitters to face.

The addition of Dylan Cease completely reframes the Padres starting rotation. Instead of rolling out a pair of second-year starters two out of every five days, these options can now provide depth to a rotation which has a fair amount of injury history. Cease struggled in ‘23, falling in nearly every pitching category from his stellar 2022 campaign. However, the stuff is so elite on the 28-year-old that you have to expect a rebound performance. You could attribute some of his struggles to a high walk rate, but this has been true of Cease for the entirety of his career. It’s simply about getting back to executing pitches, not leaving the occasional meatball slider over the heart of the plate. Though I do expect a better season from Cease than a year ago, pitching in the NL West is a completely different monster from the so-so AL Central. The adjustments he makes will be important.

The rotation will be rounded out by two of three options which arrived in the Soto trade. Michael King is a lock despite only having started 19 games up to this point in his career. Many expect big things from King, but making the full-time transition to being a starter doesn’t happen overnight. However, in his first 100+ inning season, King performed well, posting a 2.75 ERA and an elite 30% K-rate. 

Between Jhony Brito and Randy Vásquez, indications point toward the former to take on the final starting role in the Padres’ rotation. Brito started in 13 of his 25 appearances with the Yankees last year as a rookie and posted a serviceable 4.28 ERA. The young righty relies on his 96-mph fastball, and without an established second option, batters will likely catch on as the season progresses. Vásquez profiles pretty similarly, throwing his four-seamer half the time, but he threw nearly 60 less innings than Brito last year. I’d expect him to start the season out of the bullpen and be available as a starter when needed.

Other depth starting options include 27-year-old righty Pedro Avila and knuckleballer Matt Waldron. Both have below-average stuff (though the knuckleball is difficult to rate) and don’t play as long-term options. However, they may become relevant during the season given Darvish and Musgrove’s recent injury histories, King’s lack of starting experience, and unknown peripherals on Brito and Vásquez.

Bullpen

While the questions begin with the rotation, they continue in relief. Yes, Yuki Matsui was an absolute star bullpen option in the NPB, with a sub-2.00 accumulated ERA over his last five seasons. However, it’s difficult to predict how the players who arrive overseas will perform in the MLB. Matsui has a small frame, standing at 5’8″ and weighing 165 pounds, but he packs a punch. While his fastball is considered an average option, it’s Mastui’s splitter which does the damage. Last year in the NPB, this pitch garnered a 56% whiff rate, largely in part due to its release being identical to the fastball. If he can command this pitch, it’ll be tough to square up.

Amongst the new additions include Enyel De Los Santos, a sizeable righty who was acquired in a one-for-one bullpen swap with Cleveland for Scott Barlow. In my eyes, this was a steal for Preller and co. De Los Santos is younger, will cost $6 million less, and is a more dynamic option than Barlow. The righty has put together back-to-back strong seasons out of the Guardians’ pen, combining for a 3.18 ERA over 119 innings. With a firm fastball that has late horizontal break and a slider which he tunnels well, De Los Santos is sure to prove to be a great option for San Diego.

Wandy Peralta was acquired in free agency following his time in the Bronx and surprisingly signed to a four-year deal. Entering his age-32 season, the lefty has been elite for years now. Since joining the Yankees in 2021, he has put together a 2.82 ERA over 153 innings. While he does throw a 96-mph fastball, Peralta is known for the location game. He works as an east-west pitcher and locates extremely well on the corners. There is no reason to expect a performance any different from what we have seen in recency from Peralta.

Depth bullpen options could include a mix of the following: LH Tom Cosgrove, RH Jeremiah Estrada, RH Woo Suk Go, RH Luis Patiño, and LH Robby Snelling. Of note is Cosgrove, who produced a 1.75 ERA in 51.1 innings in 2023. Though not flooded with talent, the lefty knows how to induce soft contact with a near 50-50 split between four-seamer and slider. Keeping hitters guessing is Cosgrove’s M.O., and he allowed the lowest opponent exit velocity among all qualified major league relievers a year ago. If Matsui is as elite as expected, the Padres have an extremely strong group of lefties out of the bullpen.

Games in 2024 for the Padres will likely be closed by Robert Suarez, a 33-year-old, third-year reliever who agreed to a five-year deal after just one season in the league. The righty clearly left an impression on the organization after his strong ‘22, followed by a less-than-ideal ‘23 which could be summed up by injury concerns and interesting circumstances. Suarez dealt with an elbow injury which knocked him out for the first half of the season and then missed ten games in September due to an illegal substance suspension. As Suarez enters the 2024 season healthy, Padres fans should expect a performance more like that of ‘22. It will be interesting to see how he responds, though, in the new closing role.  

In its totality, and seeing as talented young options like Vásquez and Patiño should be available out of the bullpen, the back-end of Padres games shouldn’t be of concern. There is a good combination of experience and questionability, and assuming some of the 50-50 options hit, this could be one of the league’s better bullpens.

Starting Lineup

So, there has been talks this offseason of the Padres rolling out a lineup of eight shortstops. Now, seeing as there can only be one guy to actually play the position on the field, this is certainly a strange circumstance. Nonetheless, shortstop is a position which requires supreme athleticism, indicating that the Padres’ defense is likely to be elite in 2024. What will the bats look like, though?

The middle infield includes a Xander Bogaerts, Ha-Seong Kim tandem — a very solid defensive duo. After years of mediocrity with the glove at the shortstop position, Bogaerts shifted over to the right side of the diamond last year and put up the best defensive season of his career by Outs Above Average (81st percentile). Kim, on the other hand, brought home his first career Gold Glove Award in a season in which he placed in MVP voting. With a solid 110 OPS+, 38 stolen bases, and superb defense, Kim has proven himself as the everyday shortstop for the Padres. Offensively, Bogaerts is as consistent as they come. 2023 was arguably the worst batting year he has had since his rookie season, yet he still produced a 120 OPS+. Production should be strong on both sides of the ball for this middle-infield duo.

As a University of Michigan student, it’s hard not to root for alum Jake Cronenworth. Following a Rookie of the Year runner-up finish and two All-Star Game appearances, Crone put together his worst season yet in 2023. His .689 OPS and 10 home runs is far from what a team wants from a middle-of-the-lineup hitter. There’s not much to say here outside of the fact that the Padres’ first baseman struggles to find barrels. He never really has profiled in such a manner, though, and has been one of the luckier hitters in the league in past seasons. It’s difficult to see a world where Cronenworth puts together a worthwhile campaign while hitting somewhere between three and five in the lineup. 

Rounding out the infield is six-time All-Star third baseman Manny Machado. Last year was a whirlwind year for the Padres slugger, dealing with a lingering hand issue for a large part of the season and then injuring an elbow tendon in his throwing arm in September. Machado has pushed through a number of ailments the past couple of seasons yet manages to show up everyday and perform. Last year was a so-so performance offensively, but I wouldn’t call a 30-home-run season a disaster. Truthfully, the .782 OPS Machado posted in 2023, given the injury history, only instills more confidence in me of the stardom the veteran third baseman possesses. However, the elbow injury required surgery this offseason and is likely going to limit Machado to DH reps only for a large part of the season. He was elite once again defensively last year, so this surely hurts the team. One also has to wonder how his recovery will impact his bat.

So, who are the replacement options at third with Machado off the field defensively? Well, as discussed earlier, the Padres didn’t really do anything to address the offense, so third base is likely left up to a few guys with limited big league experience. FanGraphs projects prospect Graham Pauley as the most likely to see consistent playing time. Pauley, who has yet to play in a major league game, has produced solid numbers in the minors from the left since being drafted in 2022. 

It’s likely he’ll platoon with righty utilityman Eguy Rosario, whose playing time was limited by an ankle injury which kept him out for the majority of 2023. It will be exciting for Padres fans to finally have the opportunity to watch Rosario consistently, as his upside is likely a bit higher than Pauley’s. He can run, field any position, and put up solid numbers with the bat as well. Though he may not profile best at third base, the Padres have a need at third which Rosario can fill. Expect Matthew Batten, the team’s replacement third baseman from a year ago, to see some time as well.

The Padres outfield is headlined by Fernando Tatis Jr., a Platinum Glove winner during his first season in right field. Coming off of a PED suspension and being forced into a position change, there were a lot of questions surrounding Tatis entering the 2023 season. And while he didn’t return to his MVP form from before the suspension, he answered a lot of the questions, especially from the defensive end. Offensively, Tatis was still hitting the ball extremely hard and proving dangerous on the basepath. As is typical, expect big things from the star in ‘24.

Opening up the San Diego season in centerfield will be rookie and top prospect Jackson Merrill. The 12th-ranked prospect by MLB Pipeline (and third “Jackson” on the list), Merrill came up through the Padres’ system as a middle infielder and batted his way to a starting position in the outfield. Though likely not the first choice defensively to man centerfield, there is clearly enough athleticism and offensive talent to make this work. Merrill’s profile isn’t power-infused, but he’s said to have a solid, all-fields approach which could eventually make him a staple of the top of the order. There’s a lot to like here, but I will go out on a limb and say that Merrill isn’t likely to be in the Rookie of the Year race. I hope he proves me wrong.

Left fielder Jurickson Profar and catcher Luis Campusano round out the lineup as middle-of-the-order options. Profar had made a career for himself in San Diego as a consistent producer. He was traded back to the Padres at the deadline after signing a deal with Colorado before the ‘23 campaign. Expect another solid season out of the Padres’ left fielder as he enters his age-31 season.

Campusano is a defensive liability behind the plate, ranking in the bottom half of the league in all key catching metrics. While this isn’t ideal for the pitching staff, Campusano makes up for this with his offense. In limited (174) plate appearances, the Padres’ backstop produced an .847 OPS. A heavy-pull, power-approach hitter, Campusano displayed his ability to put bat to ball consistently in 2023 when he produced a batting average north of .300. 

Bench

Outside of framing, backup catcher Kyle Higashioka, a product of the Soto deal, isn’t a great defensive replacement for the poor-fielding Campusano. The 34-year-old doesn’t really provide much production offensively either. In reality, there simply isn’t a great crop of catchers in the game right now, but they may be on their way. The Padres’ no. 1-ranked prospect (eighth in league by MLB Pipeline) Ethan Salas is waiting in the wings at just 17 years old. Despite his age, there are discussions of the young catcher being ready for the 2025 season, just a year from now. If this is the case, Salas could become one of the youngest players in MLB history and make an immediate impact in the struggling Padres catching room. For now, Campusano and Higashioka will have to do.

Outside of the platoon at third base, other infield depth options for San Diego include signees Tucupita Marcano and Tyler Wade. Marcano is still recovering from ACL surgery which caused him to miss the final two months of last season. When he can fully recover, it’s likely he’ll have a role given the current lack of depth in this organization. Wade, a left-handed hitter and defensive replacement, can play a multitude of positions but isn’t likely to produce much with the bat.

Outfield depth options are slightly more prevalent, including José Azocar, Óscar Mercado, Cal Mitchell, Tim Locastro, and Jakob Marsee. Mercado could prove to be particularly helpful in centerfield, at least from a defensive standpoint, if Merrill struggles. The 29-year-old has a fair share of major league experience and is known for flashing the leather. A more interesting outfield piece is Marsee, a sixth rounder in the 2022 MLB Draft who absolutely showed out in the Arizona Fall League this past year. In 118 plate appearances, Marsee hit for a .391 average and produced a 1.215 OPS. Though profiling better as a corner outfielder, he could be used in centerfield if necessary.

From top to bottom, this offense lacks depth, which comes as no surprise after Preller decidedly ignored the bats this offseason. More moves could be on the way as the season approaches, but with the Padres beginning early with a series against the Dodgers in South Korea, something needs to be done quickly. As it stands, though, San Diego will likely be rolling out multiple rookies with zero days of MLB experience on Opening Day.

Player to Watch #1: RF Fernando Tatis Jr.

As an established star to take a look at, Tatis Jr. fits the bill on this roster better than anyone. From the look to the swag to the confidence in which he plays the game, the Padres’ right fielder emotes stardom. The PED suspension brought about questions of Tatis’ character and reports of poor locker room culture certainly point towards him to an extent. Nonetheless, the Padres’ organization is relying upon Tatis to not only perform but potentially even take on a leadership role in the clubhouse at some point.

In short, Tatis needs to step up. He is the best this team has got, but at the end of the day, if the goal is to win ball games, you have to be a team to do so. Is Fernando Tatis Jr. willing to be a part of a winning culture? A number of analysts close to the team have noted ego to have been a massive problem for the Padres in 2023. This doesn’t come as a surprise in a clubhouse full of big contracts and even bigger names. With Soto gone, the others need to step up in order to craft a culture. And, Tatis is integral to this process.

Player to Watch #2: UTL Jackson Merrill

So much of the Padres’ 2024 season relies upon how young talent performs. Whether this be the backend of the pitching staff, the depth options across the roster, or those in the starting lineup on Opening Day, rookies and second-year talent performance could truthfully make a difference of 10 games this year, enough to knock the team out of the playoff picture or place them directly into the heart of it. No young name is bigger than Jackson Merrill.

As previously discussed, the position change to centerfield is an interesting move by the Padres to be sure. While you may argue that Merrill is undeniably talented and that San Diego had to find a spot in the lineup for him, I really just think that there are no other viable options. Merrill will have yet to even reach his 21st birthday at the time of his first big league game, and to me, this feels rushed. It seems as though the Padres organization isn’t necessarily looking to win now, so why not role out Mercado for the large part of the season rather than ruin a young player’s confidence by placing him into a starting role without much professional experience? Frankly, it feels misguided. Get this man some Triple-A at-bats first.  

Player to Watch #3: C Luis Campusano

Though likely just a placeholder until Salas is ready, Campusano does present an opportunity for some much-needed offensive production from an unlikely position. Oftentimes, when young talent breaks into the league, they pick up on the fastball at a quicker rate than offspeed pitches. This is simply because big-league velocity and spin is absurd, especially nowadays. If you sit fastball, you’re bound to have at least a decent share of success.

Well, Campusano was no exception to this rule of thumb during his first major league stints between 2020-22. He was stymied against offspeed and breaking pitches to the tune of a xwOBA south of .250. However, the Padres’ catcher adjusted more quickly than most, turning in an extremely well-rounded offensive season during 2023. He not only produced a xwOBA of .362 against the fastball, but values of .374 and .342 against offspeed pitches and breaking balls, respectively. His ability to recognize the pitch and adjust accordingly rivals some of the best in the game and makes Campusano a potentially scary offensive threat. The sample size for Campusano is small up to this point, but there is reason to believe that he could be one of the best hitting catchers in all of baseball in the near future.

Position Group to Watch: Yankees Pitching Staff

Strangely, as a result of the Soto trade, the Padres are heavily reliant upon recent Yankee arms. King, Brito, and Vásquez are far from proven starting options and could be the make-or-break factors of this pitching staff. While San Diego hopes for solid production from Darvish, Musgrove, and Cease, there are no health or success guarantees among these three. At some point in time, I would bet the three Yankees’ pitchers from the Soto trade will all be in the rotation. How will they fare, though?

You have one arm in King who has started just 19 career games, while the young Brito (13) and Vásquez (five) have even less experience. This is certainly not reassuring when considering Preller’s entire offseason focus surrounded the pitching staff. Maybe the team looks to add one more arm, but in any case, how these former Yankees perform will make a big impact on the Padres’ record.

2024 Record Prediction: 77-85

I know, I know. Padres fans are absolutely going to despise me for this record prediction, a number as about as low as it gets for record projections for this squad in 2024. You may cite that the Padres had a positive run differential last season and a pythagorean win-loss of 92-70. Even considering this, San Diego got severely worse this offseason.

Losing Snell, Wacha, and Lugo and replacing them with Cease, King, and Brito/Vásquez seems to be a pretty severe downgrade, not to mention the losses of important bullpen options like Hader, García, Martínez, and Wilson. The entire pitching staff, outside of Darvish, Musgrove, De Los Santos, and Peralta is far too unproven for me to have faith in them. While it has potential, I would have far more confidence if a number of these guys had one more year of experience under their belts.

The offense, on the other hand, wasn’t addressed in the slightest. If this team hopes to produce a winning record, pushing Pauley out on Opening Day at third base is unacceptable. The core of Bogaerts, Machado, Kim, and Tatis Jr. is as strong as they come when healthy and pieces like Campusano and Merrill have the potential to produce mightily; however, there is simply too much uncertainty beyond the core four.

From a talent standpoint alone, so many questions arise and lead me to believe that the Padres have a very wide range of potential outcomes. For a team like the Mariners, for example, it’s difficult to see them outside of the 82-90 win range. With San Diego, though, I could see a record anywhere between 74 and 90 wins. 

There’s also a culture issue. Now, the Padres may come into this season an entirely new team with the addition of Mike Schildt as the squad’s manager, and I could bite my words here. But, as it stands, there is nothing indicating that this group can play together. Until I see otherwise, I stand by my record prediction.

Categories: 2024 Season Preview, Articles, Season Analysis

Tags: 2024 Season Preview, San Diego Padres