Image: Kamil Krzaczynski/USA TODAY Sports

2023 Record: 61-101 (.377 win%, 4th in Division)

2024 Payroll: $124,673,333 (17^th)

2024 Projected Lineup:

1. LF Andrew Benintendi, .272 AVG/.342 OBP/.396 SLG, 1.5 fWAR

2. 3B Yoán Moncada, .251 AVG/.325 OBP/.409 SLG, 2.4 fWAR

3. CF Luis Robert Jr., .267 AVG/.318 OBP/.492 SLG, 4.0 fWAR

4. DH Eloy Jiménez, .278 AVG/.333 OBP/.479 SLG, 1.9 fWAR

5. 1B Andrew Vaughn, .263 AVG/.325 OBP/.453 SLG, 1.6 fWAR

6. 2B Nicky Lopez, .244 AVG/.316 OBP/.316 SLG, 0.7 fWAR

7. SS Paul DeJong, .208 AVG/.277 OBP/.381 SLG, 0.7 fWAR

8. C Martín Maldonado, .184 AVG/.259 OBP/.323 SLG, -0.6 fWAR

9. Platoon v R – RF Dominic Fletcher, .240 AVG/.303 OBP/.368 SLG, 0.4 fWAR

10. Platoon vs L – RF Kevin Pillar, .237 AVG/.282 OBP/.408 SLG, 0.2 fWAR

2024 Projected Starting Rotation:

1. RHP Erick Fedde, 142.0 IP/5.00 ERA/1.42 WHIP, 1.1 fWAR

2. RHP Michael Kopech, 131.0 IP/5.03 ERA/1.46 WHIP, 0.8 fWAR

3. RHP Michael Soroka, 119.0 IP/4.56 ERA/1.34 WHIP, 1.2 fWAR

4. RHP Chris Flexen, 103.0 IP/5.00 ERA/1.45 WHIP, 0.8 fWAR

5. LHP Garrett Crochet, 104.0 IP/3.99 ERA/1.35 WHIP, 1.1 fWAR

2024 Projected Top 4 Relievers:

1. RHP John Brebbia, 66.0 IP/4.36 ERA/1.29 WHIP, 0.4 fWAR

2. RHP Jimmy Lambert, 64.0 IP/4.88 ERA/1.46 WHIP, -0.1 fWAR

3. RHP Jesse Chavez, 60.0 IP/4.40 ERA/1.35 WHIP, 0.3 fWAR

5. RHP Touki Toussaint, 83.0 IP/4.91 ERA/1.48 WHIP, 0.3 fWAR

What Baseball Means to Southside?

The core values of Southside baseball that reflect this part of Chicago are grit, resilience, hard work, and drive. Fans expect the White Sox to reflect and embody the mentality of Southside Chicago and show this toughness on the field. But, at the moment, this ball club embodies none of those things. The current White Sox have a losing culture and are miserably failing at rebuilding the organization.

I think the mentality or current state of the Southside baseball fans is perfectly embodied by this 7 minute rant by a caller, who is a die-hard White Sox fan, on the ESPN Chicago radio show on 1000 AM. 

The fans are simply heartbroken by the poor performance on the field and even in the front office. The Southside is sick of the poor signings and trades that have done nothing for the ball club. The players have continuously failed to produce, meet expectations, or even just stay on the field. The organization has spent tons of money over the years and the return on investment has yet to be seen. Additionally, there is no trust in the farm system as a source of hope for the future, as many of them have not panned out in the big leagues. 

There are clear feelings of anger, disappointment, and heartbreak towards the Chicago White Sox organization, and as a result the fans are just sick of watching and supporting the ball club which seems to be clueless and aimless in their direction for the future. 

The fans do not want to attend games nor even watch them from home. According to MLB.com, the White Sox ranked 24th in home game attendance, with around 21,405 people attending each game (to put that in perspective the Yankees and Dodgers have over 40,000 attending each game). To add on, for viewership numbers, a report from Sports Business Journal says that the White Sox had a 41% decrease in their ratings after the 2023 season.

Everyone knows that the White Sox are in the midst of a rebuild, so the fans lack the motivation to attend games. To add on, aside from star outfielder Luis Robert Jr., there is no draw or attraction for these games. As the caller put it, it is “like watching a Triple-A team” that lacks enough talent to win games.

Another unimpressive season is expected to come in 2024. This miserable rebuild seems to never get better, and the Southside continues to grow more and more unhappy and impatient. 

The fans want a competitive ball club, but that does not seem probable in the near future. Therefore, there are many key changes needed on the field and in the front office to fix this bottom-level organization in order to remedy the discontent of Southside fans. 

2023-24 Offseason Recap:

Fix the Defense – Mainly the Infield

A clear need for the Chicago White Sox is their defense, more specifically in the infield since Luis Robert Jr. has held it down in the outfield. The defense as a whole was horrible. According to FanGraphs, the White Sox were worst in the league in Def during the 2023 season (Def = Fielding Runs Above Average + positional adjustment), with -38.5. According to Baseball Savant, in the 2023 season, around 88% of White Sox qualified infielders had a zero or negative Outs Above Average (OAA). 

That being said, the White Sox front office went out and grabbed defensive middle infielders Nicky Lopez and Paul DeJong to add some stability to their defense. Lopez ranked in the 96th percentile and DeJong in the 94th for OAA (per Baseball Savant). So, with the addition of these two players, it is safe to say that the White Sox will no longer miserably struggle in the infield. 

Cease the Rumors

After the continuous rumors of Dylan Cease being moved in this offseason, the trade finally happened with the San Diego Padres. The White Sox moved their star pitcher Cease in exchange for some promising prospects including: Drew Thorpe (RHP and top 85 prospect by MLB Pipeline), Samuel Zavala (OF), and Jairo Iriarte (RHP), as well as big league reliever Steven Wilson (RHP).

This move fits in with the so-called “rebuild” that the White Sox are attempting to do, and they received promising talent that could help put an end to the misery. While the White Sox got a good return, these players still need a lot of time to develop in their farm system. It could be quite a long time until the White Sox can be competitive again.

The decision to move Cease was beneficial in order to acquire young talent to put the club in the position to be successful in the future, because the White Sox have no true expectation to win ball games this year. Not an incredible move, but definitely a good move for some promising prospects. 

Skipper’s Goals

It is going to be Pedro Grifol’s second year as the skipper for the Chicago White Sox, but this could be the last year he manages this team. Simply put, the White Sox were horrible last year and if nothing really changes then there is no true incentive for the front office to keep him around as manager. 

Grifol noted in offseason interviews that the main problems last year were lack of control on the mound leading to walks, a horrific defense, and not enough offensive production at the plate. Considering that Cease was just moved for prospects and that no star offensive players were brought in, Grifol cannot solve or better two of the three issues. The additions of DeJong and Lopez will definitely help out in the infield, but overall it seems like the White Sox are due for another horrible season. 

Grifol says his mantra for this ball club is having “something to prove,” but the White Sox lack the talent and star power offensively and defensively to consistently produce and win ball games. Likely, after another disappointing season of the rebuild project, the front office will want to move on from Grifol and hire another manager to lead the team out of misery.

Key Acquisitions:

• John Brebbia, RHP – one year, $5.5 milion
• Erick Fedde, RHP – two years, $15 million (from KBO)
• Chris Flexen, RHP – one year, $1.75 million
• Michael Soroka, RHP – traded from ATL
• Martín Maldonado, C – one year, $4.25 million
• Nicky Lopez, 2B – traded from ATL
• Paul DeJong, SS – one year, $1.75 milion
• Mike Moustakas, INF – signed minor league contract
• Dominic Fletcher, OF – traded from ARI

Key Departures:

• Dylan Cease, RHP – traded to SD
• Aaron Bummer, LHP – traded to ATL
• Mike Clevinger, RHP – free agent
• Liam Hendriks, RHP – two years, $10 million with BOS
• Gregory Santos, RHP – traded to SEA
• José Ureña, RHP – signed minor league contract with TEX
• Yasmani Grandal, C – one year, $2.5 million with PIT
• Tim Anderson, SS – one year, $5 million with MIA
• Elvis Andrus, INF – signed minor league contract with ARI
• Leury García, OF – signed minor league contract with ATL
• Trayce Thompson, OF – one year, $1.45 million with NYM

2024 Regular Season Preview:

Starting Rotation…Without Cease!

Just by looking at the projected fWAR for this starting rotation and the bullpen, it is clear that the pitching staff as a whole will struggle to help the White Sox win ball games. Especially with Cease gone, there is no star power to lead this team on the mound, and it seems like no one has the talent to fill his shoes. Last year Cease had a 3.7 fWAR and this year he is projected around 3.0 fWAR, and replacing that kind of player will be extremely difficult considering the lack of talent in this White Sox staff.

Erick Fedde is projected to have a 5.00 ERA and hover around a 1.0 fWAR and is probably going to be the ace of this staff. The numbers truly speak for themselves, and it is clear that unless some miracle or breakout season occurs for one of these starters, the White Sox will have a miserable season from the mound. There is just not enough talent in the starting rotation to put the team in the position to win games. 

Incredibly Low fWar for Many Players

All of the projected pitchers listed above hover around a 0.0-1.0 fWAR, while half of the projected hitters listed above sit around a 0.0-1.0 fWAR. And, only one player is above 3.0 fWAR (Luis Robert Jr.). With fWAR or any WAR in general being highly regarded by many baseball analysts to measure a player’s worth and production, the White Sox are full of extremely low fWAR players which implies that the ball club will be very unsuccessful this year. 

According to FanGraphs, an average MLB starter in the field is around 2.0 fWAR, and the same can be said for starting pitchers. The White Sox are statistically below the average mark, which is what we expect due to the lack of talent in this ball club. This squad will struggle to win games and will likely remain in the bottom half of the AL Central divisional race. 

This division is definitely one of the weakest in all of Major League Baseball, as the Minnesota Twins made the playoffs after winning only 87 games. But considering the fact that the White Sox are rebuilding their squad and that they lack the sufficient talent at the moment to win ball games, winning this division is completely out of the picture. When looking at the starting lineup, the rotation, or the bullpen, no one truly stands out except for Robert Jr. and no one seems to have the ability to consistently produce on the diamond to win games for the White Sox. The White Sox could be in the race at points throughout the season, but in the long run they will most likely finish in fourth or fifth place in the division.

The Future, The Next Steps in this Rebuild

The clock keeps ticking and ticking. Fans are heartbroken and angry. The team is just not producing on the field. There is no true direction to this rebuild, and the organization is miserably failing both on the field and in the front office. It seems like the only hope for this White Sox team is for Robert Jr. to carry the squad to win ball games and hope that the prospects in the farm system pan out and make a significant difference once they get to the show. 

It is hard to project what is next for the White Sox since the organization seems to be in the midst of a huge mess. But, it seems like the only solution to this misery will be a successful prospect or a major free agent signing, both of which require great leadership and patience, which this ball club evidently seems to lack. 

Player to Watch #1: CF Luis Robert Jr.

Luis Robert Jr. is everything to this ball club at the moment. Just by looking at the projected stats for this season, Robert Jr. is clear of everyone on this squad and is bound to produce more at the plate and help defensively more than anyone else. No other player will have over 3.0 fWAR or compare to Robert Jr.’s OAA. Especially with Dylan Cease gone, he seems like the only player that fans want to see.

At the plate and on the bases, Robert Jr. could maybe have his first career 30/30 season. Towards the end of the 2023 season, he was much more aggressive on the base path, and this type of base-running could carry over to the 2024 season. In ’23, Baseball Savant had his base-running value in the 17th percentile, but his sprint speed ranked in the 84th percentile. He has the wheels to steal the bags, but just has to be more aggressive to reach that 30/30 goal.

The offense is something fans do not have to worry about. Robert Jr. has great power to drive the ball out of the ballpark and score lots of runs for this ball club, and many project him to continue producing at the plate at this level in the 2024 season.

Another big factor for Robert Jr. this season is staying healthy and playing enough games. In his first three years at the big league level, he struggled to play over 100 games; however, last year he played 145 and if he stays on this healthy track, he will become even more valuable and prove to the league that he is one of the best, if not the best, center fielder in all of baseball. 

The last point to consider is that Robert Jr. is currently 26 years old and will turn 27 during the 2024 season; at this point, he may be frustrated with the constant failures of this rebuild and might want out of Chicago. He likely doesn’t want to waste the prime years of his career for a club that has no direction and expects to be one of the worst teams in their division. After what is projected to be another horrific year, will Robert Jr. have enough and request a trade to go to a club that is competitive? Only time will tell. 

Player to Watch #2: SS Colson Montgomery (Birmingham Barons, AA)

Colson Montgomery was drafted by the Chicago White Sox in 2021 in the 1st round with the 22nd overall pick out of Southridge High School (IN). In high school, he was a three-sport athlete playing football, basketball, and baseball. He is even the all-time leading scorer for basketball at Southridge. He is currently 22 years old and stands at 6’3″ and weighs around 225 pounds. Montgomery plays shortstop and throws righty and hits lefty.

Scouting grades from MLB Pipeline: Hit: 55 | Power: 60 | Run: 50 | Arm: 55 | Field: 55 | Overall: 60

Montgomery is well-profile with an above-average hit grade and a well-above-average power grade, and scouts believe that he has great potential to drive in runs at an elite level. Corey Seager is his MLB comparison, since both are tall shortstops with a smooth lefty swing and a ton of pop with the bat. To add on, with his three-sport background in high school, he is an incredible athlete on the diamond. And, fellow teammates and coaches throughout the organization have nothing but good things to say about him. Manager Grifol speaks very highly of Montgomery, saying he is “a star in the making,” he “slows down the game,” and that “nothing really phases him.”

The one downside to Montgomery’s profile is that he might be too tall to play the shortstop position and could be better off defensively at third base in the MLB. Additionally, scouts have noted that he is an average or below-average runner on the bases since he has put on weight to add power. Ultimately, Montgomery’s offensive ceiling outweighs the defensive and speed concerns from scouts. 

Montgomery will likely start in the minors because the White Sox just signed and paid middle infielders to solve the defensive problem. But, later in the season, Montgomery could be called up since the White Sox are not a competitive team and do not risk much by giving Montgomery some experience in the major leagues. At the same time, though, Montgomery showed little production in spring training and needs more at-bats and time in the minors to fully develop. The White Sox should not really rush Montgomery since he is such a promising prospect. 

Player to Watch #3: 3B Yoán Moncada

In the past, Yoán Moncada has proven that he can play this game at an elite level and produce incredible results at the plate, especially in the 2019 and 2021 seasons. But, outside of those years, Moncada has been inconsistent with his production and has been disappointing to the organization and the fan base. Last year, per Baseball Savant, Moncada had a below-average batting run value, base-running value, and defensive value. But, if Moncada can show glimpses of his past success, he could prove to be one of the White Sox’ highlights of the season at the plate.

Moncada is the one of two above-average projected ball players based on fWAR in the White Sox organization (since he and Robert Jr. are the only players projected to produce 2.0+ fWAR). He is vital, as without his success, then it is incredibly uncertain or unlikely that anyone else will see the same. Robert Jr. cannot be the only one producing, and Moncada is one of those players who must show up for the White Sox to have a chance at being competitive.

Position Group to Watch: Infield – Defensive Improvement

As stated before, the defense is one of this organization’s main concerns, and this offseason, they have gone out and signed infielders who will hopefully advance the White Sox to a higher level of play defensively. Given that last year, they were considered one of the worst, if not the worst defense in the MLB, and that they have added a solid middle infield this offseason, the only direction this defense can go is up. 

With DeJong and Lopez projected to start in the middle infield, I would speculate that this defense would become much more consistent and will not struggle nearly as much as last year. But, even with these defensive improvements in the infield, the White Sox will still struggle as a whole to win games. 

2024 Record Prediction: 60-102

The expectations for this ball club are so low as many analysts and baseball fans have noted the absence of talent on this roster. The White Sox are “rebuilding” their organization and are betting on prospects to develop to one day put this team in the position to compete. But this dreamed-of future seems to be very distant, as this organization lacks good decision-making in the front office, and the current players on this roster are simply not talented enough to win games. 

That being said, the White Sox will probably have one of the worst records in the league and will struggle to stay competitive due to the lack of star power and talent to produce on the offensive and defensive sides. I project them to win around 60 games and finish in last place in the division. On paper, this roster is not projected to outcompete the Kansas City Royals or the Detroit Tigers, and White Sox fans should expect the absolute worst this year.

Categories: 2024 Season Preview, Articles, Season Analysis

Tags: 2024 Season Preview, Chicago White Sox