Image: Emilee Chinn/Getty Images
With the World Series complete, the attention has turned to the Collective Bargaining Agreement negotiations between the MLBPA and the owners. Throughout the season, the threat of a lockout loomed as a result of the expiring CBA. In preliminary negotiations for the new one, owners appeared dead set on a salary cap to mitigate different spending capabilities between teams, while the players do not appear to be willing to accept a salary cap under any circumstances.
The conflict has already turned testy at points; in 2025, Bryce Harper, one of the more vocal MLBPA members, reportedly got into a confrontation with Commissioner Rob Manfred when he was speaking to the Phillies. Journalists, players, and fans alike have all anticipated a suspension of play for seasons, worrying that these disparities in demands are irreconcilable.
If the two parties do not come to an agreement by December 2nd of this year, then the sport is frozen. Teams cannot sign free agents, execute trades, or extend any player on the 40-man roster. The winter meetings will be cancelled; players cannot communicate with managers, executives, or medical staff; salaries will be suspended.
Most consequentially, the season is also delayed, up until the point where the two sides can come to an agreement. Obviously, this would be bad for all those who enjoy baseball. But beyond those initial consequences are more far-ranging ones, ramifications for different players, teams, legacies, and more. M-SABR’s panel of writers details who will lose the most from a prolonged lockout, with perspectives varying across a wide spectrum.
Borderline Major Leaguers
Jonathan Manela
A lockout means no Spring Training. In a typical year one of Spring Training’s purposes is to make final decisions for the 26-man roster among those on the 40-man. Take the case of Kevin McGonigle in 2026; he barely made the roster out of spring training and went on to produce an elite rookie year. The cause for concern with McGonigle was the fact that he would be skipping AAA completely, but his performance in Lakeland put such concerns to rest. Jesus Made, the #1 prospect per MLB.com, and Leo De Vries, the #3 prospect, both are in a similar position to McGonigle as they have 2027 ETAs despite never cracking AAA. It will be tough for a team like the Brewers, riding the high of a World Series, to roster a player like Made from the start when he cannot be evaluated against the highest caliber of talent.
Veterans vying for a roster spot face a parallel situation. Someone like Heston Kjerstad, for example, would use Spring Training to show off their talents to a potential team. Recently released by his team, his path to a major league roster is not clear-cut. Although he will need to battle for a roster spot, veterans have found success taking that path in the past. In 2019, utility man Derek Dietrich was a non-roster invitee to the Cincinnati Reds camp, and he went on to have a resurgent year with 19 home runs during the season. Players like Kjesrstad aim to mimic Dietrich’s success, but cannot under the strictures of a lockout, and may face fading permanently into obscurity.
A lockout also means no Rule 5 Draft. Typically, borderline major leaguers have found success on a new team when their current organization lacks space on its 40-man roster. Although there was talk of rescheduling the draft during the last lockout, it never happened, and a whole cohort of players missed out on their chances at the show. Overall, players nearing but not guaranteed spots on major league rosters lose out big time with a lockout.
Aaron Judge
Ryan Borkowsky
Aging players are a recurring answer to this question, but perhaps no player has the combination of a dwindling championship window, elite status, and need of a World Series-winning legacy as Aaron Judge. The Yankees fell short once again in 2026, with Judge missing much of the season and the entire postseason with rib and calf injuries. Now entering his age 35(!!) season, the Captain has been hampered by playoff dropper allegations for a large part of his career. He appeared to shed this reputation in the 2025 playoffs with his performance against the Blue Jays, but received no support from the rest of the offense. To fully dispel doubts about his clutchness, though, he must win it all.
With questions about his 2026 injuries and the tendency of large players to become more injury prone with age, one must wonder how many truly elite seasons Judge has left. Without a championship, his legacy as the Yankee captain turns from immortalization to mere appreciation for his performance. To the New York Yankees, individual performance is not sufficient; the comparison has been made to Don Mattingly, yet his supporting cast was so poor that his 80s teams never even scratched the playoffs, absolving him of some responsibility Judge, on the other hand, will be remembered for the many playoff trips and failures, should he end his career without a ring. The 2027 season may be his best chance left to win a World Series and cement his Hall of Fame status and counting states, given his age and circumstance, making a prolonged lockout all the more damaging.
Highly Paid, No Deferral Guys – Kyle Tucker, Bo Bichette, Juan Soto
Adam Silverstein
There may be no group of players more financially exposed to a potential lockout than those who have high average annual value deals with little-to-no deferrals. This includes superstar players such as Kyle Tucker, Bo Bichette, and Juan Soto. Each is being paid enormous sums of their salaries during the 2027 season, meaning every missed game is a substantial forfeited income. Kyle Tucker and Bo Bichette may be the clearest examples: Tucker had just a $1 million base salary in 2026 for the Dodgers, but it jumps all the way to $55 million in 2027 alongside Bichette’s $42 million player option for the Mets. By contrast, players like Ohtani, who is owed just 2 million in 2027, have the majority of their deals deferred until after the contract ends and face smaller immediate financial risks. For Tucker and Bichette especially, the structure and timing of their contracts make 2027 close to a worst-case scenario for a lockout.
Injured Players/Teams
Izzy Stutz
The lockout may appear, harm big spending teams such as the Dodgers or Mets who primarily acquire their major stars through big deals, but it is the injured or hurt players who may suffer the most in the case of a lockout. Should one occur, teams must cut off all communication with their players, which includes team medical personnel. It is likely that Opening Day and Spring Training will be pushed back to accommodate for the late start, and this could also harm players; Lance McCullers Jr. of the Houston Astros noted that the 2021-22 lockout made rehab “choppy” as he was unable to have direct communication with his usual medical and training staff. While specific teams may be impacted by a looming lockout, injured players are also at risk of a deferred or lesser rehab.
Philadelphia Phillies
Christopher Putnam
The dust has now settled after another wildly entertaining MLB postseason, and the Phillies are once again found to be one of the many losers. Despite having teams which won at least 87 games each of the 5 seasons, none have surmounted the final hump in October, despite being close in 2022. It is well-known that baseball players are subject to an aging curve. A player’s prime is said to occur around the age of 28, although “peak” years can extend into the early thirties. As for the Phillies, many players are still in the productive years of their careers, such as Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto, Aaron Nola, and Zack Wheeler. However, these years are waning. Among every player in that group, the average age is nearly 34 and a half. This isn’t great, folks. If they lose a year of play, and come back a year older, that group will almost be 36 years old. Some of those players may have another year or two left in them of solid production, but it’s a stretch to assume all will not begin to be exposed to the decay of Father Time.
The Phillies do have some younger talent in Christopher Sánchez, Jesús Luzardo, Bryson Stott, and Brandon Marsh, but even so, that group is about 29 years old collectively and can’t pick up the pieces for an extended period of time. The Phillies need to find a way to infuse this roster with young talent, in addition to Aidan Miller, and fast, or their competitive window will slam shut by the next general election.
MLB Stadium Employees
Kyle Borkowsky
MLB stadium employees could be the biggest losers of all due to a potential 2027 MLB lockout. No MLB games means no pay for the stadium employees who are paid hourly. In the past, stoppages of work have led to workers reporting losses of thousands of dollars in shift pay from canceled home series. However, there are safety nets for these employees. In the 2021-22 MLB lockout, the MLBA put together a $1 million fund for relief for these employees. Unfortunately, the $1 million spread across thousands of employees in 30 different stadiums led to each employee getting a small fraction of that relief money. Financially speaking, the MLB stadium employees will bear the brunt of the economic fallout.
Milwaukee Brewers
Dana Tritz
The Milwaukee Brewers are potentially one of the biggest losers of a possible 2027 MLB lockout, especially considering the championship window they have built with their current roster. As a small-market team, the Brewers heavily rely on player development and creating talent in comparison to spending large amounts of money in free agency. In a lockout, young players on the 40-man roster who still require development will be unable to do so in either the minor or major leagues. Jacob Misiorowski and Jackson Chourio are young players who are still developing: losing valuable playing time could slow their development just as they are getting into their prime. Simultaneously, core veterans such as Christian Yelich are not getting any younger. Although they have already capitalized on this group of players once, a lockout threatens to halt some of the Brewers’ momentum and limits the time with this group, stopping a potential dynasty in its tracks.
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