Image: AP Photo/Frank Franklin II
Wild Card
Yankees vs. Red Sox: Yankees in 2
The 2026 Yankee starting rotation has been one of the best in team history, keeping a squad with a below average offense for much of the season not only afloat, but a top team in the American League. Key offensive players coming in at the trade deadline, injured players coming back, and the reigniting of the offense by late season call ups has led to the Yankees having their best month of the season (excluding March) in September. With the offense coming back and being the healthiest it’s been since April, the Yankees are perfectly set up for a short series victory. This is supported by the fact that they are going up against a Red Sox squad that is limping into October, going 12-12 in September, and have been dealing with injuries to many important players. Despite this, the Red Sox also have a great starting rotation, many of which are lefties, who the Yankees have struggled to hit all year. However, the Yankees’ hot streak and their entering October with a “healthy” roster should lead to them taking care of the Red Sox in two games.
Astros vs. White Sox: White Sox in 3
The Astros have had quite the tumultuous season. They are the first team to make the playoffs after finishing with a .500 or worse record besides the shortened season. Despite their record showing .500, according to ESPN RPI, their expected win-loss record was 78-84. This comes with the fact that they played against one of the worst divisions in American League history and had the easiest strength of schedule in the MLB. Additionally, the Astros have bottom third percent in the Majors of xwOBA-against and xwOBA, meaning that their pitching and batting are both below average among all MLB teams. On the other hand, the White Sox are also in the lower half of pitching, which is very important in short series, but rank in the top 10 for batting. Additionally, the White Sox have a top bullpen, while the Astros bullpen has been getting worn down through the end of the summer. However, the Astros have home-field advantage and a lot of postseason experience on their squad. Yet the Astros have not been good enough this season to justify an ALDS berth, despite playing the second worst team in this year’s playoffs.
Braves vs. Phillies: Phillies in 3
The Phillies squeaked into the postseason after having a shaky last month of the season. They have been the streakiest team all season, alternating from being good to bad month-to-month. However, their top starters have been some of the best in the National League this season. Additionally, their xwOBA against ranked third in the league, while their offensive xwOBA ranked eleventh this season. This top level pitching staff and above average offense would make them poised for a great playoff run. However, the Braves also have two great starting pitchers; Atlanta won the division and have been consistently great all year. Despite this, their xwOBA against and xwOBA are both average, ranking 15 and 16. The Phillies top end starters should lead them to a Wild Card win against a division rival.
Padres vs. Cubs: Cubs in 2
The Cubs have been one of the most unlucky teams in the MLB this season, with their expected wins being seven more than their actual wins. They have one of the best offenses in Major League Baseball this season and they have the MVP in Pete Crow-Armstrong, who put up one of the best seasons in recent history. Yet the Cubs have a subpar pitching staff, while the Padres have both a solid pitching staff and a solid offense. The Padres have the home field advantage and a back end of the bullpen that teams shouldn’t even bother facing. However, I think the Cubs offense will overpower the Padres’ starters and move them through into the division series.
Division Series
Rays versus Yankees: Yankees in 4
The Yankees top four starters are some of the best this league has seen. They have carried the team all season and become even more important come playoff time. The offense is finally coming together, and September was their best month record-wise. Further, the Rays’ home-field advantage is minimized by the Yankees fans who normally take over the Trop for their matchups. Meanwhile, the Rays are strong across the board. Their offense has been powered by the breakout of Junior Caminero, who is sure to have a great future in this league. The Rays also won the season series against the Yankees in 2026. However, Caminero’s supporting staff on offense is not near his level. According to ESPN RPI, The Rays have been one of the luckiest teams all season, having 7 more wins than expected, and have the 28th best xwOBA despite having the 9th best wOBA, which usually becomes magnified in the post season. I believe the star power in the Yankees pitching staff will overpower the below average Rays offense and get the Yankees back into the ALCS.
Guardians versus White Sox: White Sox in 5
The Guardians have been an average team this season. They finished with an 85-77 record despite having an expected 82-80 record. They also had the easiest strength of schedule of teams outside of the AL West. (both according to ESPN RPI) The Guardians also had the 27th best xwOBA in the majors, an extremely low mark for a playoff team and division winner. Yet the Guardians have one of the best pitching staffs in the league and home field advantage in this series. Despite this, the White Sox offense is much stronger than the Guardians’ and will push them through to the ALCS.
Dodgers vs. Phillies: Phillies in 5
Postseason baseball is about who gets hot at the right time. The Phillies have been one of the most streaky teams in the league and I believe that they will get hot right now. Despite this being more of an educated guess than an evidence-backed conclusion, the Phillies pitching staff is on a similar level as the juggernaut Dodgers. The Phillies also have one of the top lineups, with clutch hitters scattered throughout. As I research more on this series, the stats heavily favor the Dodgers, which makes sense; they have put together one of the scariest lineups and pitching staffs this league has ever seen, and it should not come as a shock to anyone that they are the favorites. However, looking at the past three months, they have a record of 44-35 which is carried by their September record of 18-7. But when looking at those September games, they played the Cardinals, Reds, Nationals, Marlins, Reds, Giants, Padres, and Giants. Of those teams, the only one that is not only above .500 but in the playoffs are the Padres, to which they lost two out of three. Thus one can conclude that the Dodgers are not having as good of a second half as the record may show. But the same argument can be for the Phillies. Despite this, I believe the Phillies will get hot and get past the two-time defending World Series Champions.
Brewers vs. Cubs: Brewers in 4
The Brewers are a great all-around team. They rank in the top five in both xwOBA against and xwOBA. Their top three starters are all top pitchers in the National League and they have a very balanced lineup led by Bauers, Turang, and Chourio. In terms of expected wins, the Brewers are legit, with one more expected win than actual. Even though the Cubs have gotten unlucky and their expected wins are at 96, they still trail the Brewers. The Brewers have come into the postseason hot, finishing September with an 18-6 record, their best among all months. Despite the fact that the Cubs have one of the most high-powered offenses in the league, the Brewers pitching staff is too well built perfectly for postseason success.
Championship Series
White Sox vs. Yankees: Yankees in 5
The Yankees pitching staff is too good for this White Sox team, who despite ranking 10th in xwOBA, can not match up to the firepower wielded not only by the rotation, but also by the bullpen. Matt Blake has developed this team too well on that side of the ball to falter to a slightly above average squad like the White Sox. On the other side of the ball, the Yankees offense has been shaky throughout the season, being in the bottom five in OPS for a large portion of the season. If the White Sox were to get into this series, their pitching would have to be the best it’s been all season and I just do not see that happening. Even though the Yankees have been shaky on offense this year, the likely arrival of Judge back into this lineup by the time we get to mid-late October should lead to the Yankees not being troubled by a young White Sox squad. The Yankees will advance to their second World Series in the past 3 years.
Brewers vs. Phillies: Brewers in 6
The Brewers are one of the most balanced teams in the league. They exceed on both sides of the ball and are above average defensively. Conversely, the Phillies are one of the top pitching teams, but do not exceed offensively like the Brewers do. To add on, the Phillies are a below average defensive team with a -16 fielding run value compared to the Brewers’ 7. Jacob Misiorowski getting the ball at a maximum of 3 times in a 7 game series is almost a cheat code for any team, which I don’t think the Brewers will even need. They are blazing hot coming into the playoffs and are supported by an offense with such a balanced order that it will be difficult for a Phillies team with not the best offense to be able to stop.
World Series
Brewers vs. Yankees: Yankees in 7
The teams with the most expected wins in their respective leagues will play each other for all the marbles. The team with 27 World Series Championships versus a team with zero World Series Championships. Both teams are stacked to the brim with elite starting pitchers. The two teams have the exact same fielding run value of 7. I think no doubt that this series goes to 7 games and if we were to get Schlittler versus Misiorowski 3 times that would be a treat to all baseball fans. If that does happen, we would be getting Cam Schlittler in two road games where he has a 1.16 ERA and a 0.74 WHIP. The Yankees will also be putting two of their starting pitchers, one of which being Ryan Weathers (who was having a sneaky great season), and Will Warren in the bullpen along with Headrick, Blackburn, and Bednar who all had stellar seasons.
The Brewers also have an insane pitching staff outside of the starters. Their bullpen has a 3.22 ERA this season including stellar seasons from DL Hall, Abner Uribe, and Trevor Megill. Though I used expected stats throughout the entire article, I believe that the deciding factor in this series lies outside of the expected stats. The Yankees have an offense which has been held together with Elmer’s Glue the entire season. October is upon us, and the real pieces are finally returning and being pieced together. The expected stats do not fully account for the addition of Luis Garcia Jr, of George Lombard Jr. of Spencer Jones, of Heliot Ramos, the return of Judge, Stanton, and Bellinger. That is essentially half the lineup who were not in the lineup for the entire season. This prediction is so much more difficult than the rest because the Yankees postseason roster does not look like the rest of their team. I believe that the Yankees offense is the biggest X-factor in this series and the entire playoffs. If they can be 75% of what they should be, this Yankees team is looking at a 28th World Series ring.
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Cool article
Solid analysis.