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2023 Record: 75-87 (.463 win%, 4th in Division)
2024 Payroll: $283,801,859 (2nd)
2024 Projected Lineup:
1. LF Brandon Nimmo, .267 AVG/.362 OBP/.436 SLG, 3.5 fWAR
2. SS Francisco Lindor, .253 AVG/.333 OBP/.444 SLG, 4.7 fWAR
3.1B Pete Alonso, .248 AVG/.339 OBP/.505 SLG, 3.1 fWAR
4. DH J.D. Martinez, .243 AVG/.309 OBP/.449 SLG, 0.7 fWAR
5. 2B Jeff McNeil, .284 AVG/.345 OBP/.407 SLG, 2.6 fWAR
6. C Francisco Álvarez, .228 AVG/.315 OBP/.437 SLG, 3.1 fWAR
7. RF Starling Marte, .263 AVG/.322 OBP/.398 SLG, 1.5 fWAR
8. 3B Brett Baty, .246 AVG/.318 OBP/.407 SLG, 1.6 fWAR
9. CF Harrison Bader, .250 AVG/.307 OBP/.400 SLG, 2.1 fWAR
10. IF Joey Wendle, .240 AVG/.286 OBP/.357 SLG, 0.1 fWAR
2024 Projected Starting Rotation:
1. RHP Kodai Senga (currently on the IL), 130.0 IP/3.69 ERA/1.28 WHIP, 2.3 fWAR
2. LHP Jose Quintana, 160.0 IP/4.40 ERA/1.42 WHIP, 1.7 fWAR
3. LHP Sean Manaea, 158.0 IP/4.32 ERA/1.28 WHIP, 2.2 fWAR
4. RHP Luis Severino, 138.0 IP/4.53 ERA/1.31 WHIP, 1.6 fWAR
5. RHP Tylor Megill, 96.0 IP/4.61 ERA/1.40 WHIP, 0.5 fWAR
6. RHP Adrian Houser, 128.0 IP/4.56 ERA/1.42 WHIP, 1.0 fWAR
2024 Projected Top 4 Relievers:
1. RHP Edwin Díaz, 64.0 IP/2.70 ERA/1.01 WHIP, 2.2 fWAR
2. LHP Brooks Raley, 64.0 IP/4.15 ERA/1.33 WHIP, 0.4 fWAR
3. RHP Adam Ottavino, 63.0 IP/4.11 ERA/1.36 WHIP, 0.2 fWAR
4. RHP Drew Smith, 62.0 IP/4.36 ERA/1.33 WHIP, 0.1 fWAR
What Baseball Means to New York?
Since their inception in 1962, the Mets have consistently seen themselves in the shadow of their cross-town rivals. And ever since Steve Cohen bought the team in 2020, the goal has been to overcome that notion. From his first press conference, it was clear that Cohen wanted to break free from the “little brother” and “Lol-Mets” of the past and build the Mets into a force to be reckoned with.
While the beginning of his tenure as owner has had its positives, the overall negative performance has left fans with a bitter taste. Given Cohen’s financial investment, Mets fans, rightfully so, expect more. These fans are some of the most passionate in the country, but they can quickly sour if the production isn’t up to par, especially with recent investments.
Ultimately, the Mets need to build a contender as soon as possible to reward the fans who have given so much to the Mets.
2023-24 Offseason Recap:
After a trainwreck 2023 season, the 2023-24 offseason presented a crossroads for the newly-hired David Stearns: go all-in for 2024 or prepare for 2025 and beyond?
Stearns generally chose the latter.
Representing a stark contrast to their previous two offseasons, the Mets decided to work passively and search for low-risk, value pickups. While they were ready to splurge on Japanese star Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the organization decided to pivot to value buys once they struck out on the pitcher.
After trading Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer at the 2023 trade deadline, the Mets rotation beyond Kodai Senga was filled with question marks. Comprised of young starters and past-prime veterans, it was clear that the Mets needed to revamp their rotation. While pitchers like Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery were readily available for much of the offseason, Stearns didn’t see the value in them and opted for cheaper arms.
Stearns kicked off the rotation moves by inking a one-year, $13 million deal with former Yankees starter Luis Severino. Next was a trade with his former employer, acquiring starter Adrian Houser and outfielder Tyrone Taylor from Milwaukee for SP Coleman Crow. Upon the change of calendar, Stearns furthered his search for starters by agreeing to a 2-year, $28 million deal (with a player option) with former Giants’ lefty Sean Manaea.
Ultimately, instead of splurging on long-term deals, Stearns and the Mets chose to find low-risk pickups that could potentially be parlayed into prospect capital at the deadline, similarly to how they operated at the 2023 deadline. While this approach is upsetting to most fans, myself included, it ultimately set the Mets up for a more sustainable path to success.
Beyond the rotation, Stearns focused heavily on the bullpen. Similarly to how he operated with the Brewers, Stearns is keen on trying to extract value from low-risk relievers.
Stearns’ signings of Jorge López, Jake Diekman, and Shintaro Fujinami all represent low-risk, high-reward relievers who Stearns hopes can succeed or potentially translate into prospect capital. Additionally, the re-signing of Adam Ottavino also gives the Mets another late-inning option alongside Edwin Díaz and Brooks Raley.
In the lineup, the Mets made two critical moves. The first of which was the signing of outfielder Harrison Bader on a one-year, $10.5 million deal. While not overwhelming with the bat, Bader represents another one of Stearns’ central philosophies — run prevention above all else. Bader has been one of the best defensive outfielders over the past five-plus seasons, posting the fourth-most Outs Above Average amongst outfielders since 2018. Bader’s signing allows the Mets to shift Brandon Nimmo to left field, which gives the Mets “two center fielders” to help offset the defensive woes of Starling Marte in right.
With a week to go until Opening Day, despite appearing done for the offseason, the Mets were presented an opportunity they simply couldn’t resist. On March 21st, Stearns and co. inked a deal with DH J.D. Martinez on a one-year, $12 million deal. The contract itself is particularly advantageous for the Mets as only $4.5 million is paid in 2024, with the rest deferred.
Martinez offers the Mets a big bat to hit behind Pete Alonso and provide power to a lineup that badly needs it. Last year, amongst players with at least 450 PA, Martinez’s .301 ISO ranked fourth in MLB behind Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge, and Matt Olson. While his All-Star 2023 was unbelievable, Martinez comes with significant risk. Firstly, he is entering his age-36 season which has its associated worry. Secondly, Martinez struggled with back injuries in 2023, and considering the nature of the injury type and his age, it is plausible they may rear their ugly head again. Ultimately, despite this, given the nature of the contract, it is a valuable signing for the Mets.
Furthermore, the Martinez signing also provides a signal to the fans and locker room that 2024 may not fully be the “punt” most viewed it as. While their previous moves seemed to suggest so, the Martinez signing may act as a signal of a competitive team in 2024.
Beyond those moves, the Mets made a few smaller-scale moves, most notably the signing of Joey Wendle.
While they made plenty of off-season moves, a move the Mets didn’t make looms large over the offseason. Going into the last season of his rookie contract, Pete Alonso remains without an extension. A cornerstone of the Mets’ current core, the Mets can’t afford to lose him.
All indications suggest extension talks haven’t gotten off the ground, so it seems incredibly likely that Alonso will go into the new season without a contract. Given Alonso is a Scott Boras client, it also seems somewhat inevitable that Alonso will hit free agency. Hopefully, the Mets can swing a deal similar to how they did with Brandon Nimmo, another Boras client.
While the Mets have made some moves to set themselves up for success in 2024, ultimately, their moves work even stronger in potentially setting up a successful team for 2025 and beyond.
2024 Regular Season Preview:
When looking at the Mets’ goals for 2024, the front office has set the team up to be generally competitive. While playoffs aren’t necessarily the expectation, the roster is strong enough to compete for a Wild Card. The division seems too rich, but the expanded playoff format gives an advantage to a team like the Mets. Last year, the Diamondbacks and Marlins made the playoffs despite both having 84 wins. Most books peg the Mets to win around 81-82 games, so a jump to the Wild Card is most definitely possible.
While the ultimate goal will always be to compete for the playoffs, there is another important goal for the Mets: prospect development. Despite moves to compete in 2024, it is clear that the front office prioritizes success in 2025 and beyond, and to achieve this, they need to see development from young players through all levels of the system.
In the majors, the Mets need to see continued progression by Francisco Álvarez, as well as breakouts by Brett Baty and Mark Vientos. Additionally, pitchers like Christian Scott and Mike Vasil have the opportunity to break into the majors in 2024.
In the minors, by the end of the season, the Mets hope to be in a situation where prospects Jett Williams, Luisangel Acuña, Drew Gilbert, and Ryan Clifford are knocking on the door of the big leagues, giving the Mets a plethora of breakout options for 2025.
Player to Watch #1: 1B Pete Alonso
Going into 2024, few players will have a brighter spotlight on them than Alonso. Heading into the season without a long-term extension, Alonso has the opportunity to add millions to his next contract with a big 2024.
In 2023, Alonso had his worst full season, posting a 121 wRC+. While still creating unbelievable value, it represents a marked decrease from 141, 131, and 144 in the previous three years, respectively. To his credit, Alonso had remarkably unlucky batted ball luck. His .205 BABIP represented a significant drop from .279 in 2022. BABIP, or batting average on balls in play, is a generally stable statistic that sits between .250 to .350 for most players, so anything outside this range can generally be attributed to bad/good luck. Thus, Alonso’s .205 mark represents less than ideal batted ball luck. With a strong 2024, Alonso has the opportunity to earn well over $200 million, which could end up costing the Mets a significant sum.
Player to Watch #2: 3B Brett Baty
In 2023, Baty was given an entire season’s worth of opportunities at third base. While expectations were high after a scorching spring, the results were far from that. Baty slashed .212/.275/.323 with a 68 wRC+ in 108 games and was sent back down to Syracuse in August.
In 2024, he will have another opportunity to start at third base; a strong season is necessary if Baty wants to live up to his prospect hype.
Player to Watch #3: SP Christian Scott
Drafted in the fifth round of the 2021 MLB Draft from the University of Florida, Scott has experienced an astronomical rise through the Mets’ system, going from low-A to AA in a year. Across three levels in 2023, Scott posted a 2.57 ERA with 107 strikeouts in 87.2 innings.
Scott was allowed the opportunity to pitch in spring training, and he left scouts mesmerized. Namely, his slider has caught the eyes of both baseball professionals and fans for its unbelievable movement profile.
Scott will likely start the season in Syracuse, but with the possible volatility of the major league rotation, it’s very plausible that Scott could get the call.
Position Group to Watch: Young Starters
The 2024 Mets’ rotation has a combination of older veterans and injury risks, which makes having adequate depth critical. They have a plethora of young, near-major-league-ready starters who can potentially contribute sooner rather than later.
Pitchers like Tylor Megill, José Buttó, the aforementioned Christian Scott, and Mike Vasil all have the opportunity to break into the major league rotation and turn some heads. Additionally, David Peterson will likely return to health sometime during the season, which would provide another depth arm to the rotation.
2024 Record Prediction: 84-78
Ultimately, I believe that the Mets have the offensive talent to compete for a playoff spot. However, their rotation does present numerous questions. How much will Senga pitch? Will Severino stay healthy and produce?
Nonetheless, I believe the Mets rotation has enough reliable veteran arms to keep them afloat and competing in games. Thus, I believe the Mets can overperform their win total. 84 wins will likely put them in Wild Card conversation, but with teams like the Phillies, Padres, Giants, and Diamondbacks all likely competing for Wild Card spots, it’ll be a tough path to get in.
Nonetheless, the 2024 season will hopefully provide the Mets with a stepping stone to parlay into success in 2025 and beyond.
Categories: 2024 Season Preview, Articles, Season Analysis
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