Image: AP Photo/Bruce Kluckhohn

2023 Record: 87-75 (.537 win%, 1st in Division)

2024 Payroll: $116,353,690 (19^th) 

2024 Projected Lineup:

1. 2B Edouard Julien, .240 AVG/.358 OBP/.397 SLG, 2.5 fWAR

2. SS Carlos Correa, .262 AVG/.341 OBP/.443 SLG, 3.6 fWAR

3. CF Byron Buxton, .237 AVG/.309 OBP/.488 SLG, 2.9 fWAR

4. 3B Royce Lewis, .268 AVG/.333 OBP/.478 SLG, 4.0 fWAR

5. RF Max Kepler, .244 AVG/.326 OBP/.444 SLG, 2.5 fWAR

6. 1B Carlos Santana, .230 AVG/.326 OBP/.395 SLG, 0.7 fWAR

7. DH Alex Kirilloff, .256 AVG/.325 OBP/.421 SLG, 0.7 fWAR

8. LF Matt Wallner, .234 AVG/.335 OBP/.426 SLG, 1.4 fWAR

9. C Ryan Jeffers, .233 AVG/.317 OBP/.424 SLG, 1.9 fWAR

10. INF/OF Willi Castro, .248 AVG/.308 OBP/.389 SLG, 1.0 fWAR

11. OF/DH Manuel Margot, .269 AVG/.324 OBP/.398 SLG, 0.9 fWAR

2024 Projected Starting Rotation:

1. Pablo López, 192.0 IP/3.59 ERA/1.15 WHIP, 4.1 fWAR

2. Joe Ryan, 175.0 IP/4.02 ERA/1.16 WHIP, 2.8 fWAR

3. Bailey Ober, 149.0 IP/4.11 ERA/1.21 WHIP, 2.1 fWAR

4. Chris Paddack, 124.0 IP/4.29 ERA/1.24 WHIP, 2.0 fWAR

5. Louie Varland*, 124.0 IP/4.17 ERA/1.27 WHIP, 1.3 fWAR

*Anthony DeSclafani will start the season on the IL

2024 Projected Top 4 Relievers:

1. Jhoan Durán, 66.0 IP/2.45 ERA/1.10 WHIP, 1.8 fWAR

2. Griffin Jax, 64.0 IP/4.02 ERA/1.23 WHIP, 0.6 fWAR

3. Brock Stewart, 63.0 IP/3.31 ERA/1.18 WHIP, 1.0 fWAR

4. Steven Okert, 60 IP/3.95 ERA/1.23 WHIP, 0.3 fWAR

2023-24 Offseason Recap:

The Minnesota Twins’ offseason was a bit of a sticky wicket. With no clear TV deal heading into the offseason, a shrinking payroll made it difficult for the Twins to build off their 2023 postseason run. Tasked with improving the team without spending any money, Falvey and Co. turned to trading to fill some of the Twins’ smaller holes. 

Twins fans had to spend the first half of the offseason watching all of the team’s free agents walk. Sonny Gray, last year’s CY Young runner-up, signed a 3-year, $75,000,000 contract with the St. Louis Cardinals. Kenta Maeda landed with the Tigers and Emilio Pagán, one of the best bullpen arms last season (a fact that I never would have imagined saying a year ago!), signed with the Reds. All of these moves happened before December 1st, and the Twins wouldn’t make a substantial move until January 29th. 

With Edouard Julien’s breakout year, and Brooks Lee knocking on the Twins’ doorstep, there was a surplus of middle infielders. Because of this, longtime Twin Jorge Polanco was dealt to the Seattle Mariners in exchange for Anthony DeSclafani, Justin Topa, and two prospects. The deal cleared up space for the young guys, added some much-needed SP depth, and even brought in a top-100 prospect in Gabriel Gonzalez. It’s sad to lose a guy like Polanco, but hopefully the solid return makes it hurt a little less. 

With Michael A. Taylor no longer on the roster, there was a glaring hole in the shape of a Byron Buxton backup. Shortly after acquiring him in the Tyler Glasnow deal, the Dodgers sent Manuel Margot to the Twins for SS prospect Noah Miller. Margot, entering his age-30 season, mostly played CF and RF. As Byron Buxton reacclimates to playing the field, Margot provides a solid defensive option for days when Buxton rests. 

The lone free agent signing came in the form of 14-year veteran Carlos Santana. Santana is coming off a solid season, hitting 23 home runs while slashing .249/.314/.459 between Pittsburgh and Milwaukee. He has been around since 2010 and has never appeared in fewer than 131 games (something particularly valuable on a team that never seems to catch a break with injuries!). He’s consistent, reliable, and offers plenty of experience on this relatively young team. 

2024 Regular Season Preview:

The Minnesota Twins are the heavy favorites to win a weak AL Central. From superstar caliber players like Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa to rising stars like Royce Lewis and Joe Ryan, there is no doubt that they have one of the most complete rosters in baseball. They were finally able to win in the playoffs last season… is 2024 the year they take it a step further?

In 2023, the Twins had one of the steadiest and healthiest catching tandems in baseball. They look to do that again in 2024, with Ryan Jeffers and Christian Vázquez both returning. The two catchers shine in different aspects of the game, with Jeffers being the better of the two offensively. He looks to improve upon his more than serviceable 2023 season, where he slashed .276/.369 /.490 and had a wRC+ of 138 (tied with Mitch Garver for highest among catchers with 300+ PAs). Vázquez, on the other hand, provides the experience and defensive skills needed to lead such a young pitching staff. His 31.5 CS% was just average, but he only had 3 passed balls in nearly 800 innings behind the plate. 

For the first time in a long time, the Twins are entering the season with little to no questions regarding who will play where. They’ll platoon to the fullest of their heart’s content, making every game day a little different than the one before it. The area that should remain the same every day? The left side of the infield. 

Carlos Correa and Royce Lewis, both appearing to be fully healthy, will be holding things down over there. Correa is still looking to get back to where he was defensively in 2022, with last year marking the first time in his career that his DRS was in the negatives. An offensive rebound wouldn’t be too bad, either, with 2023 being one of the worst of his career. Lewis, on the other hand, is looking to build off of a fantastic 2023 season. He’s no defensive wizard at third, but his presence in the batter’s box is more than enough to get people excited about him.

On the left side of the infield, four players will be making appearances throughout the season. Though Edouard Julien and Alex Kirilloff likely face RHPs while Kyle Farmer and Carlos Santana face LHPs, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Julien steal some at-bats against LHPs. He struggled mightily against lefties last season, posting a .196/.229/.217 clip with a whopping 80% ground ball rate, but he has to learn at some point, right? Brooks Lee might not make the team out of Spring Training but expect the Twins’ #2 prospect to work his name into the conversation sooner or later. As for first, Santana is the much better option defensively. His 11 DRS led all first basemen last season, and his 3 OAA were good for second. Kirilloff’s emerging bat is something that the Twins want in the lineup, which means Santana might be seeing a lot of DH.

Byron Buxton in center field! The 2024 season will mark the star’s return to the diamond, where he hopes to bounce back from a rather disappointing 2023 season. Even though his BA, OPS, and SLG were all among the lowest of his career, he was still hitting the ball extremely hard. His hard-hit %, barrel %, and average exit velocity were among the best in baseball, and he even hit the hardest ball of his career at 116.9 MPH off the bat. And, maybe most importantly, he’s still very fast… his 29.3 sprint speed ranked in the 94th percentile. If his return to center can reignite his bat, Buxton might be in for a special season. 

The rest of the outfield will primarily consist of Matt Wallner and Max Kepler, with new addition Manuel Margot getting a hefty amount of playing time as well. Kepler, set to become a free agent after this season, finished 2023 on an absolute heater. It was the closest he’s gotten to putting up 2019-esque numbers, meaning he still has something left in the tank after all. 

I can’t do a season preview without mentioning Willi Castro. After coming over from the Tigers before last season, Castro had a surprisingly good 2023 campaign. He played six positions (seven if you count his three pitching appearances!) for the team, and he is 100% going to be the jack of all trades again here in 2024. He’s versatile, and as big a threat as one can be on the basepaths (pay attention to who leads the team in stolen bases, Byron Buxton has said he’s out for the title).

On the pitching side of things, it’s about to be really interesting. With no real replacements for Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda, the Twins are relying on young guys like Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, and Chris Paddack to make up for those lost innings. Paddack, acquired in the trade that sent Taylor Rogers and Brent Rooker to San Diego, appeared in four games (including playoffs) out of the bullpen last season and is set to make his return to the rotation for the first time since undergoing his second Tommy John surgery.  The Twins will of course monitor his usage, but there’s a lot of hope that he can return to the pitcher that was once considered one of the best prospects in baseball.  

And of course there’s Pablo López, who should continue to be a Cy Young-caliber ace at the front of the rotation. With recent reports of Anthony DeSclafani consulting Tommy John specialist Keith Meister, it looks like Louie Varland might be a permanent fixture in the rotation. This Twins rotation might look slightly different than it did last year, but it has the potential to remain one of the best in baseball. If the young guys don’t come through, however, the Twins might be on the lookout for some help come the trade deadline. And if DeSclafani is indeed out of the season, maybe looking for help a little sooner would be ideal. 

In a lackluster offseason, the Twins managed to turn their already good bullpen into a great one. They may have lost Emilio Pagán, but the acquisition of Justin Topa more than makes up for this. In his first substantial season in the bigs, he had a 2.71 ERA in  69 innings of work. He’s a huge ground ball pitcher, which is the complete opposite of fellow acquisition Steven Okert. Okert, the return from Miami for Nick Gordon, had the fifth-highest FB% (52.6) among qualified relievers in 2023. His 4.45 ERA wasn’t necessarily eye-popping, but his 4.06 FIP indicates that he may have been a little unlucky at times last season.

Unfortunately, it was also recently announced that star closer Jhoan Duran, as well as Caleb Thielbar, will begin the season on the IL. This definitely puts a damper on things, but the bullpen still has strong arms in Griffin Jax and Brock Stewart. If the relievers perform as well as last season as a group, however, the Twins are in good shape.

Breathe in, breathe out…injuries may be starting already, but this is what the Minnesota Twins have been training for! Now more than ever, the team has a roster that seriously looks as though it can overcome these annoying bumps in the road. If injuries continue to pile up, feel free to panic. For now, just remember that the baseball season is very, very long.

Player to Watch #1: 3B Royce Lewis

In only 58 games last season, Royce Lewis pretty much made himself a household name (and I’m fully convinced that he would have been ROY if he had played even 20 more games). Even though it feels like he’s been around forever, he’s just now entering his age-25 season. Lewis projects as a guy who can hit 30 home runs, hover around a .300 average, and maybe steal 15-20 bases. Because we already know that he can hit, it will be particularly interesting to see how his glove can develop. His defense isn’t quite gold glove caliber, but he’s still relatively new to the position (almost all of his experience there has come at the major league level!). He had 2 DRS and OAA last season… even the tiniest improvements would show that the sky’s the limit for the former #1 overall pick. He has yet another grand slam this Spring… that’s as good a reason as any to believe that he’ll pick up right where he left off!

Player to Watch #2: Louie Varland

This is the year that Louie Varland finally gets the chance to be the hometown hero. With DeSclafani likely to begin the season on the IL, it looks like Varland will finally get the spot in the rotation that he’s been fighting for since entering the league in 2022. His 5.30 ERA over 10 starts last season isn’t anything to get too excited about, but his spring has been promising so far. After making improvements to his slider and adding a two-seamer, Varland has allowed zero runs across 11 innings of work, while striking out 11. Spring training numbers don’t mean much in the grand scheme of things, but hopefully his strong start is an indication that he made the right changes during the offseason. If Varland can follow in the footsteps of Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober, the Twins’ rotation has the potential to be really solid for the foreseeable future. 

Player to Watch #3: 1B Carlos Santana

Carlos Santana is an established veteran. Carlos Santana is almost 38 years old. Carlos Santana is going to lead off (sometimes)! The Twins aren’t cowards! Who needs a 23-year-old with 20/20 potential when you can have the vet stroll up to the plate and hit bombs… There are so many beautiful things about baseball, and I think that this should be added to the list. 

In all seriousness, Carlos Santana is a great candidate to lead off at times. He has slashed .278/.375/.443 against lefties throughout his 14-year career. In 132 games at the top of the lineup, he has 7 lead-off home runs, a 128 wRC+, and more walks than strikeouts. He might not have the speed, but the plate discipline and power are more than enough to justify the decision by Baldelli. 

Position Group to Watch: Last Year’s Rookies

The 2023 season had some good rookies. Royce Lewis, Matt Wallner, and Edouard Julien burst onto the scene and blew all expectations out of the water. They were a huge part of Minnesota’s success last season, and look to keep the good times rolling in 2024.

Wallner has had an extremely slow start to the spring, but it’s hard to look at that and definitively say that he’ll regress in 2024.  His 18.8 Barrel% was good for fourth among those with at least 250 PAs, and he had 25 home runs between MLB and Triple-A. He is a pure hitter and an absolute star in the making. 

Edouard Julien, who had just barely cracked MLB Pipeline’s top 100 prospect list in 2023 (96), had a stellar rookie campaign. Although he eventually compiled 2.8 fWAR, leading all Twins position players, it felt like it took Baldelli and the Twins forever to give him his deserved playing time.

The possibility of a sophomore slump is always a little scary, but these guys are studs. If Lewis, Wallner, and Julien continue to produce like they did last season, the Twins should have no problem winning baseball games. The best part of it all? The Twins should be okay if they struggle a little bit at times! The emergence of these players has given the team an absurd amount of depth, and it will be exciting to see what the three of them can do with a full season. 

2024 Record Prediction: 86-76

Something about this seems so tricky this season. The bullpen is great, but the rotation and the lineup have the potential to be great (amazing potential, but potential nonetheless). If everything goes even remotely well, I think the Twins are blowing past 86 wins. One major injury, or 1-2 players not contributing as expected, and I think there’s a chance that the Twins find themselves in a weird situation. And, for some reason, I’m under the slightly-delusional impression that the Tigers and Royals have a real shot to compete with the Twins and Guardians for the Central (I’ll never be delusional enough to believe in the White Sox). I think we’ll know early on how the Twins will fare this season, and I really hope my prediction looks silly come October.

Categories: 2024 Season Preview, Articles, Season Analysis

Tags: 2024 Season Preview, Minnesota Twins