Image: David Durochik/Diamond Images
2023 Record: 92-70 (.568 win%, 1st in Division)
2024 Payroll: $94,484,460 (21st)
2024 Projected Lineup (Projected Stats by FanGraphs):
1. CF Sal Frelick, .269 AVG/.338 OBP/.390 SLG, 1.9 fWAR
2. C William Contreras, .270 AVG/.348 OBP/.454 SLG, 3.9 fWAR
3. LF Christian Yelich, .257 AVG/.359 OBP/.423 SLG, 2.4 fWAR
4. 1B Rhys Hoskins, .238 AVG/.336 OBP/.459 SLG, 1.8 fWAR
5. SS Willy Adames, .244 AVG/.324 OBP/.451 SLG, 3.7 fWAR
6. DH Gary Sánchez, .213 AVG/.301 OBP/.423 SLG, 0.6 fWAR
7. RF Jackson Chourio, .258 AVG/.305 OBP/.411 SLG, 1.6 fWAR
8. 2B Brice Turang, .244 AVG/.315 OBP/.360 SLG, 1.3 fWAR
9. 3B Joey Ortiz, .254 AVG/.308 OBP/.393 SLG, 1.0 fWAR
10. IF Andruw Monasterio, .247 AVG/.329 OBP/.356 SLG, 0.5 fWAR
2024 Projected Starting Rotation:
1. RHP Freddy Peralta, 163.0 IP/3.77 ERA/1.18 WHIP, 3.1 fWAR
2. LHP DL Hall, 110.0 IP/3.75 ERA/1.29 WHIP, 1.8 fWAR
3. RHP Colin Rea, 133.0 IP/4.54 ERA/1.30 WHIP, 1.5 fWAR
4. RHP Jakob Junis, 128.0 IP/4.33 ERA/1.28 WHIP, 1.6 fWAR
5. RHP Joe Ross, 92.0 IP/4.58 ERA/1.35 WHIP, 0.5 fWAR
2024 Projected Top 4 Relievers:
1. RHP Joel Payamps, 67.0 IP/3.96 ERA/1.27 WHIP, 0.6 fWAR
2. LHP Hoby Milner, 63.0 IP/3.92 ERA/1.25 WHIP, 0.4 fWAR
3. RHP Abner Uribe, 61.0 IP/3.59 ERA/1.33 WHIP, 0.4 fWAR
4. RHP Trevor Megill, 64.0 IP/3.47 ERA/1.22 WHIP, 1.3 fWAR
What Baseball Means to Milwaukee?
Baseball is an important part of a Milwaukee summer, especially with Bucks basketball and Packers football away. Despite rumors that the Brewers would have to relocate without a new stadium deal, the Wisconsin government signed a bill sending around $500 million over the next 30 years to help repair and upgrade American Family Field. So, the Brewers will be in town for at least the next three decades.
2023-24 Offseason Recap:
Milwaukee exited the 2023 playoffs with a painful sweep at the hands of the eventual NL-champion Diamondbacks and entered an up-and-down offseason. Firstly, it was announced that Brandon Woodruff would miss the entire 2024 season after undergoing shoulder surgery. Woodruff was non-tendered early in the winter but was brought back to Milwaukee on a two-year deal that was heavily backloaded to reflect his injury.
Then, in an announcement that made me yell several curse words in my room, Milwaukee’s manager Craig Counsell stunned the baseball world and left to manage their NL Central rival in the Chicago Cubs. The Brewers promoted bench coach Pat Murphy to replace Counsell, but the change will be mainly felt emotionally, as many Brewer fans were unhappy with the Wisconsin-native moving to their closest rival team in Chicago. Counsell’s loss will be felt on the playing field as well, especially as Milwaukee will have to play 13 games against him.
Further losses included catcher Víctor Caratini, first baseman Carlos Santana, first baseman Rowdy Tellez, and the much-maligned outfielder Jesse Winker departing in free agency. Additionally, the Brewers traded outfielder Tyrone Taylor and right-handed starter Adrian Houser to the New York Mets in exchange for RHP Coleman Crow. More notably, the organization dealt ace Corbin Burnes to the Baltimore Orioles in exchange for prospects DL Hall and Joey Ortiz.
However, the Brewers made some additions as well. During free agency, Milwaukee signed pitchers Jakob Junis and Joe Ross to help fill out the starting rotation. On offense, 1B Jake Bauers was brought in to help the infield. The big splash was signing 1B Rhys Hoskins to a two-year, $34 million contract. After missing 2023 due to injury, if Hoskins can rediscover the power that he had in Philadelphia, he can provide a huge boost to Milwaukee’s offense.
At the beginning of the winter, Milwaukee signed their top prosepct Jackson Chourio (ranked second in baseball by MLB Pipeline) to an eight-year extension worth $82 million, marking an unprecedented move given his age (19 at the point of the extension) and small minor league service time. Despite only six appearances in Nashville, this contract all but cemented Chourio’s place in the majors, and a good spring training confirmed this.
Overall, Milwaukee’s offseason confirmed their approach of trying to be good enough to make the playoffs, while simultaneously planning for the future to avoid a rebuild that many small market teams have to endure. I think they accomplished this goal, but their roster is reliant on prospects and second-year players, so time will tell if this approach brings the desired bite of the apple.
2024 Regular Season Preview:
Milwaukee has many question marks around the roster, mainly due to lack of experience. However, they do have a set core and some players to be excited about.
Perhaps their biggest strength lies behind the plate. All-Star William Contreras will return for his second season in Milwaukee and is expected to be an everyday player as the best bat on the team. New addition Gary Sánchez should serve as the backup catcher and a potential DH candidate, as the Brewers will be looking to use his power in anyway they can. Finally, former Tiger Eric Haase had an incredible spring training, hitting .395 with five home runs. However, he did not survive the final cutdown and was DFA’d.
The infield is more or less set, but there is still intrigue in some of the new bats. The newly acquired Rhys Hoskins will take first base, sophomore Brice Turang will play second, Willy Adames will keep his position at shortstop, and new acquisition Joey Ortiz is expected to start the year at third. Meanwhile, the depth pieces include the newly acquired Jake Bauers and the returning Andruw Monasterio. Outfielder Sal Ferlick played several games at third base during Spring Training as well. Additionally, expect AAA depth in Oliver Dunn and Tyler Black to step in sometime during the year.
The only set spot in the outfield is Christian Yelich in left. Frelick is expected to start in center with Chourio in right, but there definitely could be some shifts if Frelick helps at 3rd base and/or Chourio needs more time adjusting to the majors. Blake Perkins returns to provide depth and potentially cover days when Yelich is DHing. Finally, Garrett Mitchell fractured his hand right before the end of spring training, costing himself 6-8 weeks. Expect him and potentially Joey Wiemer in AAA to provide some power if the situation calls.
After Freddy Peralta, Milwaukee’s starting rotation is full of question marks. Wade Miley should provide some stability, however he will open the year on the injured list after dealing with shoulder soreness and a groin injury. Colin Rea returns after throwing 124 innings in 2023 for Milwaukee but will be looking to improve upon his 4.55 ERA. Free agency pickup Jakob Junis will provide much-needed innings after being signed from San Francisco, and Joe Ross will be looking to improve in his first major league appearance since 2021. Starting in AAA, southpaw Aaron Ashby and flamethrower Robert Gasser will most likely receive some major league starts this season as well.
The bullpen received a huge blow when it was announced that Devin Williams would miss the first three months of the season with back stress fractures. Thus, it is still up in the air as to who will fill the role of closer. Potential candidates are Abner Uribe, Trevor Megill, and Joel Payamps. While each pitcher has their pros and cons, expect all three to share the role unless a true number one emerges. Filling out the rest of the bullpen are Hoby Milner, Elvis Peguero, and long relievers such as Bryse Wilson and potentially Aaron Ashby.
The final question lies in the managers chair. How will Pat Murphy differ from Counsell? Will he finally acknowledge reverse platoon splits? How will he manage his bullpen? The only way to know the answer to these questions is to just watch.
Player to Watch #1: OF Jackson Chourio
The newly minted Chourio has risen through the minors as fast as a 20-year-old can. He was signed to an eight-year, $82 million extension in the winter and made the Opening Day roster after a great Spring Training. In 2023, Chourio slashed .283/.338/.467 and hit 22 home runs across three levels. He is expected start in right field in 2024 but can also play center. While it might take a bit for him to adjust to the majors, Chourio is bound to be star.
Player to Watch #2: LHP DL Hall
DL Hall was acquired as a part of the Corbin Burnes trade and is expected to start the season in the Brewers rotation. Much of his 2023 in Baltimore was spent rehabbing from a back injury, but he still proved to be a value bullpen piece down the stretch and even in the postseason, when he pitched 3.1 innings of shutout ball. However, he only has 33 innings and one career start to his name in the majors. With his four-pitch set and a fastball touching 95, the ceiling is high for Hall. But, expect a slower start as he becomes accustomed to being a starter and a staple of the Brewers rotation.
Player to Watch #3: RHP Abner Uribe
Uribe made his MLB debut last July (which I was fortune to attend in person) and proved that he has a cannon right arm. His bread and butter is a 100-mph sinker paired with a wipeout slider that induced a 58.1% whiff rate. Uribe posted a fantastic 2023 season with a 1.78 ERA in 30.2 innings. However, he also gave up 20 walks, which proved to be very detrimental; once the bleeding would start, it would be difficult to stop. With the injury of Devin Williams, Uribe has the opportunity to close some games in the first half. If he can find consistent control and limit his walks, Uribe could be a lethal weapon (and a potential future closer) for Milwaukee.
Position Group to Watch: Starting Rotation
As stated in the preview section, a lot is unknown about Milwaukees starting rotation. Can Freddy Peralta shoulder the workload expected of a #1 starter? Wade Miley and Colin Rea are known commodities, but there are several new starters, such as the southpaw DL Hall and free agent signings Joe Ross and Jakob Junis. With Aaron Ashby and Robert Gasser being potential candidates from AAA, the starting rotation is in flux, so expect a fair amount of rollover throughout the season. Who stays in and who goes to the bullpen?
2024 Record Prediction: 84-78
Given how much is unknown about Milwaukee’s current roster, nailing down a record is quite difficult. I expect the goal of this season to be similar to their football counterpart in the Packers, in that the primary objective is not necessarily wins and losses but the overall growth of the team. Milwaukee has a very young roster with many different players competing for many different roster spots. Ultimately, identifying who cements themselves into the future core and who plays themselves out of a job will matter most to the Brewers as they undergo a transition year of sorts.
Ultimately, I think that the Brewers offseason losses outweigh their additions and internal improvements, and thus I have them taking a step back from their 92-win season in 2023. I expect the team to be middling for most of the year as they attempt to sort out the optimal everyday starting lineup and rotation but ultimately improve as the year progresses. I also expect quite a few frustrating losses in the beginning of the season as the inexperienced youth get the mistakes out of their system.
Despite my prediction of a record only only games above .500, this could be enough to make the playoffs, as there is no clear contender in the NL Central. The Cubs added Counsell and resigned Cody Bellinger, but remained relatively idle throughout the offseason. The Pittsburgh Pirates and Cincinnati Reds both have young talent with potential, but neither club has shown they can string together a consistent period of winning yet. The St. Louis Cardinals should rebound from their dreadful 2023 season, but is their rotation enough to support their stars? All this uncertainty could propel Milwaukee to the playoffs by default, thus providing a sense of hope for this team.
Categories: 2024 Season Preview, Articles, Season Analysis
M-SABR 
Leave a comment