2023 Record: 89-73 (.549 win%, 3rd in Division)
2024 Payroll: $217,376,784 (7th)
2024 Projected Lineup (Projected Stats by FanGraphs):
1. RF George Springer, .256 AVG/.330 OBP/.440 SLG, 2.9 fWAR
2. 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr., .282 AVG/.362 OBP/.507 SLG, 3.6 fWAR
3. SS Bo Bichette, .292 AVG/.334 OBP/.474 SLG, 4.1 fWAR
4. DH Justin Turner, .259 AVG/.333 OBP/.412 SLG, 1.6 fWAR
5. LF Daulton Varsho, .240 AVG/.306 OBP/.447 SLG, 2.8 fWAR
6. C Alejandro Kirk, .269 AVG/.352 OBP/.418 SLG, 3.1 fWAR
7. CF Kevin Kiermaier, .244 AVG/.305 OBP/.381 SLG, 1.7 fWAR
8. 3B Isiah Kiner-Falefa, .255 AVG/.310 OBP/.346 SLG, 0.8 fWAR
9. 2B Cavan Biggio, .227 AVG/.333 OBP/.367 SLG, 1.0 fWAR
10. UTL Ernie Clement, .266 AVG/.312 OBP/.385 SLG, 0.5 fWAR
11. UTL Davis Schneider, .231 AVG/.336 OBP/.423 SLG, 1.8 fWAR
2024 Projected Starting Rotation:
1. RHP Kevin Gausman, 192.0 IP/3.45 ERA/1.15 WHIP, 4.4 fWAR
2. RHP Chris Bassitt, 197.0 IP/4.01 ERA/1.24 WHIP, 2.9 fWAR
3. RHP José Berríos, 177.0 IP/4.10 ERA/1.24 WHIP, 2.4 fWAR
4. LHP Yusei Kikuchi, 153.0 IP/4.17 ERA/1.32 WHIP, 1.9 fWAR
5. RHP Bowden Francis, 59.0 IP/4.37 ERA/1.27 WHIP, 0.2 fWAR
2024 Projected Top 4 Relievers:
1. RHP Jordan Romano, 57.0 IP/3.51 ERA/1.19 WHIP, 0.4 fWAR
2. RHP Erik Swanson, 55.0 IP/3.72 ERA/1.20 WHIP, 0.1 fWAR
3. RHP Yimi García, 66.0 IP/3.89 ERA/1.22 WHIP, 0.6 fWAR
4. LHP Tim Mayza, 62.0 IP/3.51 ERA/1.21 WHIP, 0.5 fWAR
2023-24 Offseason Recap:
That’s it? I mean I didn’t expect them to go hog wild, but really? I guess this was the offseason where the Blue Jays could afford to be a bit dormant, but I still expected more. Well, let’s get into what’s there.
Kevin Kiermaier was a pleasant surprise last season. The 33-year-old outfielder experienced a bit of a renaissance last year, with a 104 wRC+ and eight home runs in 129 games, all while playing superb defense, winning his fourth Gold Glove Award. The Blue Jays were able to retain his services for the 2024 season to the tune of one year and $10.5 million.
The Blue Jays faithful did unfortunately have to say goodbye to two fan favorites and franchise legends. RP Jordan Hicks took his talents to the Bay Area and signed on to be part of the San Francisco Giants’ starting rotation for four years and $44 million. Meanwhile, 2023 American League All-Star (it’s true!) Whit Merrifield signed with the Philadelphia Phillies for one year and $8 million.
The team didn’t only lose talent this offseason but also brought in some key additions. One being bullpen ace and occasional utility-man Isiah Kiner-Falefa on a two-year contract worth $15 million.
The uber-consistent Justin Turner was also added on a one-year, $13 million deal. The 39-year-old is coming off of a season with the Red Sox when he finished with 23 home runs, but also a worst-in-a-decade 114 wRC+. That may sound bad, but it was simply the result of a poor September, likely caused by a severe bone-bruise in early August that Turner elected to play through. He was otherwise his usual self, which is to say he was a very good hitter.
The team also signed 40-year-old Canadian baseball legend Joey Votto to a minor league deal. The future Hall of Famer probably doesn’t factor into the overall picture very much, but it is certainly a feel-good story.
2024 Regular Season Preview:
Despite their relative inactivity this offseason, the Blue Jays are still positioned to make a run at their first World Series since 1993. As evidenced by the brevity of the offseason recap section, not much changed around 1 Blue Jays Way. Though this may be a disappointment to many, it also means that the majority of a roster that won 89 games during the 2023 season, even through relative underperformance, remains intact.
The bats were somewhat of a letdown last season. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. endured a down year, but the underlying numbers suggest that it shouldn’t be cause for concern. Daulton Varsho showed signs of life at the plate with a strong Spring. Alejandro Kirk is still just 25 and only a year removed from an All-Star appearance. The point is, a lot did not go this club’s way at the plate last season, and they still managed to win 89 games. It’s not unreasonable to think that they can do even better this year if things start going as they should on offense.
The pitching should once again be rock-solid. The starting rotation returns 4/5 guys from last year, including perennial Cy Young contender Kevin Gausman, and 2023 200-inning man Chris Bassitt. The bullpen also returns nearly everyone from a unit that ranked fourth in ERA in 2023.
Player to Watch #1: 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Guerrero Jr. had a rough season by his standards in 2023. His 118 wRC+ was not bad but ranked just 11th out of all primary 1B. Nothing in his Statcast profile suggests that he changed much of anything from his approach in 2022, though. It just seems that he got a bit unlucky. After a sizzling Spring Training, it’s not unreasonable to expect him back in superstar form in 2024.
Player to Watch #2: C Alejandro Kirk
With Danny Jansen starting the season on the IL, Kirk is going to have an opportunity to prove that he is Toronto’s backstop of the future. After an All-Star 2022 season in which he put up a 129 wRC+, he regressed in a major way, only managing a 96 wRC+ in 2023. While his defensive abilities aren’t in question, he needs to show that the hitter he was in 2022 is still in there.
Player to Watch #3: SP Ricky Tiedemann
Tiedemann is one of the most-exciting pitching prospects in the minor leagues right now and should be up in the bigs in the next few months. Though he was limited by injuries to just 44.0 IP last season, he still managed to strike out 82 batters. The potential is sky high for the 6’4″ LHP, and we could start to see it at the MLB level very soon.
Position Group to Watch: Starting Rotation
The starting rotation was the Blue Jays’ unquestioned strength in 2023. The foursome of Gausman, Bassitt, Berríos, and Kikuchi all made 30+ starts and were very effective in them. Those four maintaining similar levels of performance and health will be crucial for the team’s success this season. I’m particularly interested in seeing if Kikuchi can sustain his performance from his breakout season in 2023.
The battle for the fifth spot in the rotation should also be interesting. It’s currently held down by Bowden Francis, but I imagine we’ll also see Alek Manoah and Ricky Tiedemann get cracks at it.
2024 Record Prediction: 90-72
Not much changed with the Blue Jays’ roster, and I don’t see why much should change with their record. If everything goes according to plan, they could obviously exceed this prediction, but I think right around 90 wins is a very safe bet. Once the postseason starts, anything is possible, right?
Categories: 2024 Season Preview, Articles, Season Analysis
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