Image: Ivy Ceballo/Tampa Bay Times
2023 Record: 99-63 (.611 win%, 2nd in Division)
2024 Payroll: $87,216,012 (26th)
2024 Projected Lineup (Projected Stats by FanGraphs):
1. 1B Yandy Díaz (R), .291 AVG/.382 OBP/.453 SLG, 3.7 fWAR
2. 2B Brandon Lowe (L), .239 AVG/.328 OBP/.456 SLG, 2.8 fWAR
3. LF Randy Arozarena (R), .262 AVG/.351 OBP/.449 SLG, 3.2 fWAR
4. DH Harold Ramírez (R), .281 AVG/.324 OBP/.417 SLG, 0.5 fWAR
5. 3B Isaac Paredes (R), .244 AVG/.340 OBP/.462 SLG, 3.5 fWAR
6. *RF Josh Lowe (L), .259 AVG/.322 OBP/.438 SLG, 2.3 fWAR
7. CF José Siri (R), .222 AVG/.272 OBP/.410 SLG, 1.9 fWAR
8. SS José Caballero (R), .230 AVG/.341 OBP/.349 SLG, 1.5 fWAR
9. C René Pinto (R), .227 AVG/.270 OBP/.399 SLG, 1.6 fWAR
10. UT Amed Rosario (R), .267 AVG/.306 OBP/.392 SLG, 1.0 fWAR
*Currently on injured list, will miss Opening Day
2024 Projected Starting Rotation:
1. RHP Zach Eflin, 178.0 IP/3.52 ERA/1.12 WHIP, 3.6 fWAR
2. RHP Aaron Civale, 141.0 IP/4.06 ERA/1.22 WHIP, 2.0 fWAR
3. RHP Zack Littell, 153.0 IP/4.28 ERA/1.26 WHIP, 1.2 fWAR
4. RHP Ryan Pepiot, 131.0 IP/4.22 ERA/1.29 WHIP, 1.1 fWAR
5. *RHP Shane Baz, 102.0 IP/3.89 ERA/1.22 WHIP, 1.5 fWAR
6. *RHP Taj Bradley, 130.0 IP/4.14 ERA/1.26 WHIP, 1.4 fWAR
Currently on injured list, will miss Opening Day
2024 Projected Top 4 Relievers:
1. RHP Pete Fairbanks, 66.0 IP/3.00 ERA/1.13 WHIP, 1.8 fWAR
2. RHP Jason Adam, 64.0 IP/3.53 ERA/1.15 WHIP, 0.8 fWAR
3. LHP Colin Poche, 63.0 IP/3.87 ERA/1.25 WHIP, 0.4 fWAR
4. RHP Phil Maton, 65.0 IP/4.06 ERA/1.28 WHIP, 0.0 fWAR
Tampa vs. St. Pete:
What baseball means in Tampa is a completely different story from what it means in St. Pete. From an outside perspective, it is certainly easy to look in and say that this team has a very small, dispassionate fan base. The Rays have put together six-straight winning seasons and five-straight playoff appearances yet have the league’s third-worst attendance numbers in that time (better than only the Marlins and A’s).
In fact, even once the team makes the playoffs, these figures don’t return to the norm. And this trend of low attendance marks is only getting worse, as showcased below.
However, these attendance figures can be attributed to more than what is surface level. SBNation’s Rays writer Elizabeth Strom has put it best on a number of occasions, citing a small population when compared to pretty much every other baseball urban center, a low-income suburban area by comparison, and the particularly poor placement of Tropicana Field when it comes to the commute.
As I understand it, the Trop is off the beaten path when considering where the largest suburban populations reside, and there are only two main highways bridging Tampa and St. Pete. This makes for a poorly designed commute that certainly isn’t desirable to make, especially on weeknights. St. Petersburg also has a small downtown without many restaurants and bars, which makes your trip a ballgame-only affair.
I would also argue that this dampens the culture at the stadium itself. Though I have never attended a game at Tropicana, I can cite from my experience as a Tigers fan that walking through our high-energy downtown district en route to the stadium breathes a breath of excitement and anticipation. I could see how a rather drab atmosphere could be created following a long drive, a fairly boring area, and a low-quality stadium.
In short, I feel for the diehard Rays fans, especially those who struggle to make it out to games for a mixture of the above reasons. With a new $1.3 billion stadium plan being announced for 2028, though, everything should be solved, right?
Well, probably not. The stadium’s location is set to remain in St. Petersburg, which is a choice beyond me. Fans have cited the difficulty of the location for years, and unless the stadium is built alongside a shiny new downtown area, I struggle to believe this change will result in a long-term uptick in attendance. I mean, sure, is it better than relocating the organization completely (see Oakland fans)? Absolutely. Is it Tampa, though? No, and that feels like a disappointment.
2023-24 Offseason Recap:
Back to the team on the field, the Rays managed to post a 99-win mark in 2023, something which seems implausible when considering the slew of injuries they incurred alongside the Wander Franco situation down the stretch. After a 23-6 start in April, you would expect a decline in production, and many thought it might be possible for the Rays to fall off completely. However, they held strong, posting a record comfortably above .500 in all but one month, July (8-16 record).
Tampa went into the postseason beat up, though, and it showed. The Rangers, who would go on to win the grand prize, bested the Rays and sent fans home early in the postseason for a third straight season. With so many holes to fill and ongoing injury concerns to deal with, President of Baseball Ops Erik Neander and co. had a lot of work to do this offseason.
Yet, nothing much was really done. Outside of a few trades, which were certainly more future-focused than set on 2024, it was a rather inactive offseason for the Rays. Heading in, the organization knew they would be without ace and Cy Young Award candidate Shane McClanahan (Tommy John surgery), as well as SS and MVP candidate Wander Franco (sexual abuse charges) for the entire season.
These are massive losses for the team and difficult to come back from. So, how did the Rays respond? They dealt their next-best option, Tyler Glasnow, to the Los Angeles Dodgers. In the move, Tampa also sent outfielder Manuel Margot away, in exchange for younger options, starter Ryan Pepiot and outfielder Jonny DeLuca.
While Pepiot and DeLuca each have the opportunity to be stars at the big league level, the verdict of the offseason remains: the Rays are not making moves to win now for the first time in half a decade. Oftentimes, with every payroll-cutting move Neander made, this was be supplemented with one which fills the hole created. And while Pepiot may turn out to be a sufficient replacement for Glasnow, he was the only starting pitcher acquired by the Rays this offseason. With McClanahan out for the year, this doesn’t bode well for the Tampa pitching staff.
Additionally, the Rays made a pair of one-for-one moves back on January 5th, trading slugger Luke Raley to the Mariners in exchange for infielder José Caballero and sending long-time Rays’ veteran reliever Andrew Kittredge to the Cardinals for outfielder Richie Palacios.
Both moves feel like catch-up deals rather than ones which are to really benefit the team on paper. Caballero helps fill the hole left by Franco, while Palacios does the same for Margot.
The final couple free agency fills the Rays made were signing reliever Phil Maton and utilityman Amed Rosario to a one-year deals, with an additional one-year club option for Mason. Once again, neither move is overwhelmingly exciting, but each provides depth for an organization which has been inundated by injuries over the past few seasons.
In short, I feel the offseason was a disappointment for the Rays. The shortstop position remains dry for now, until top prospect Junior Caminero is a full go, and the rotation is a shell of its 2023 Opening Day form. This makes it difficult to view the upcoming season as anything other than a transition year for the Tampa Bay squad.
Key Acquisitions:
- LHP Tyler Alexander – one year, $1.95 million
- RHP Ryan Pepiot – acquired from LAD
- OF Jonny DeLuca – acquired from LAD
- INF José Caballero – acquired from SEA
- OF Richie Palacios – acquired from STL
- RHP Phil Maton – one year, $6.25 million (with one-year, $7.75 million club option)
- UTL Amed Rosario – one year, $1.5 million
- UTL Niko Goodrum – traded from MIN
- C Ben Rortvedt – traded from NYY
Key Departures:
- LHP Jake Diekman – one year, $4 million with NYM (with one-year, $4 million vesting option)
- RHP Robert Stephenson – three years, $33 million with LAA
- C Christian Bethancourt – one year, $2.05 million with MIA
- RHP Tyler Glasnow – traded to LAD
- OF Manuel Margot – traded to LAD
- 1B/OF Luke Raley – traded to SEA
- RHP Andrew Kittredge – traded to STL
2024 Regular Season Preview:
The Rays enter the season with injury upon injury, which would be concerning for most; however, this organization continues to prove that it has the ability to create depth out of thin air. And while Tampa’s baseball department continues to do everything the right way from top to bottom, it’s difficult to believe they can repeatedly prove successful in the face of injury. Their two-game postseason showing a year ago was the first hint at this reality.
Nonetheless, the offensive side of the ball proves to be a strength for the team. The core surrounds Yandy Díaz and Randy Arozarena, a pair of Cuban sluggers who can rake with the best of the league. In particular, the Rays’ first baseman seems abhorrently underrated in general baseball discourse. I mean, this guy is right at the top of every list when it comes to MLB hitters. While the focus was on Luis Arráez’s pursuit of a .400 batting average, Juan Soto’s absurd walk rate, and Corbin Carroll’s outstanding rookie season from the batter’s box, Yandy Díaz was quietly a better hitter than all of them (at least by way of OPS). An American League batting title and a 158 OPS+ apparently isn’t enough to get more media recognition. Díaz was even ranked as the most underrated player in baseball by his peers. And, his name doesn’t even live up nationally to that of Arozarena, who I touch on a bit later. Give Yandy his credit!
Second baseman Brandon Lowe and third baseman Isaac Paredes are key power pieces in the lineup and compliment Díaz and Arozarena well. Each of these sluggers average around 30 homers over a 162-game span for their careers. However, their approach at the plate couldn’t be more different. Paredes is a patient, walk-first type of hitter who doesn’t blow your mind with exit velo, while the smaller-framed Lowe is a high-whiff, high-barrel hitter. Both find routes to success, but Lowe’s power seems a bit more sustainable than that of Paredes, if only the second baseman could stay healthy.
Alongside Arozarena in the Rays’ outfield for the most part this season will be José Siri and Josh Lowe. As someone who wasn’t locked in on all the Rays games in 2023, I must admit that the times I did watch, one guy stood out. José Siri is an absolute sparkplug. Pair him with Arozarena, and you have more energy in two outfield spots than some entire teams do, not to mention the skill each of them bring to the table. Though Siri’s fast-paced style of play tends to make him jumpy and a bit too eager in the batter’s box, you will struggle to find many better defensive performers in baseball. Siri finished in the 95th percentile in OAA and in the 94th for arm strength per Baseball Savant. He also profiles with 98th percentile speed. This isn’t to mention his pop, smashing 25 homers in just 338 at bats a year ago. Though he’s a specialist, Siri brings more than enough to the table for Tampa.
Josh Lowe enters the season coming off a hip injury which then led to an oblique strain, withholding him from the Opening Day roster. When he does return, though, he is likely to contribute heavily. For a large-framed athlete who profiles as a power guy, Lowe is teeming with finesse. He sprays the ball to all parts of the field and can drop in a single anywhere. Then, on the basepath, he brings 85th percentile speed and a 31-steal season in 2023. Expect big things from Lowe upon his return.
Harold Ramírez rolls in as the DH for the Rays. To compliment all of the power threats in this lineup, Ramírez’s contact-first mindset fits well into the mix. The balanced lineup Neander has constructed in recent years has worked to perfection. Scoring the fourth-most runs in baseball in 2023, the Rays rely upon role players like Ramírez to step in the batter’s box and get the job done. Though batting average may have faded as a statistic, no one is going to be upset with his .313 mark. I would, however, like to see more patience deep into counts from Ramírez, who finished in the eighth percentile in walk rate last season
Infield and outfield depth options for the Rays this season include new acquisitions José Caballero (likely to start the season at shortstop), Amed Rosario, Richie Palacios (likely to start the season in right field), Niko Goodrum, and Jonny DeLuca (currently injured), alongside graduated farmhands Austin Shenton, Curtis Mead,(currently injured), and Taylor Walls (currently injured). Of note here is Mead, an infielder who still holds rookie status after posting a .593 OPS in 92 plate appearances in 2023. Mead ranks as the team’s third prospect and showcases the ability to be solid in all aspects of the game. Though it’s unlikely he’ll rise to stardom, the Australian native may have a shot at playing a fair amount of shortstop and second base, at least until top prospect Junior Caminero is recalled. More on Caminero later.
I like René Pinto. The 27-year-old backstop saw 105 plate appearances in 2023 and put together league-average offensive numbers in that time. There is certainly some sneaky pop here, though. No, Pinto isn’t going to walk a ton and likely won’t hit above .270 at any point in his career (though it is possible), but he brings the potential for 20+ home run power. To me, he profiles with similar power and defensive ability as Jake Rogers (yes, I’m a Tigers fan) but with a far better hit tool and more projectability. There is opportunity here for Pinto to be an All-Star-caliber catcher. Backing him up throughout the season will be a combination of Ben Rorvedt, Francisco Mejía, and Alex Jackson.
With McClanahan out for the season, veteran righty Zach Eflin will take the ball on Opening Day for the first time in his career. It came as no surprise in 2023 that Eflin had a career year in his first season under the tutelage of Kyle Snyder and company. Year after year, it’s the same story – the Rays continue to fix veteran pitchers. In Eflin’s case, he improved in pretty much every area, forcing his highest chase rate (34%) while walking batters at the second-lowest rate (3.4%) of his career. This makes no sense! You either improve in one area or the other… not both. In any case, Eflin barely walked a soul (24), struck out a ton (186), and posted a career-best 3.50 ERA. Though it feels like Eflin has hit his peak, I doubt it when it comes to the Rays system.
The middle-line starters for the Rays don’t really excite me but should prove reliable. Aaron Civale was lights out with Cleveland before being traded to Tampa, where he posted a 5.36 ERA over 10 starts. Though his season mark finished at 3.46, Civale’s expected stats weren’t quite reflective of this performance, posting a 4.10 xFIP. He also allowed a .287 BABIP, meaning he was a rather lucky pitcher in ‘23 as a whole. Outside of a sharp curveball, his stuff doesn’t really knock your socks off either.
Zack Littell, another Tampa reclamation project, posted a 3.93 ERA over 87 innings a year ago. He doesn’t walk anyone but, just like Civale, saw expected statistics worse than the results. Another unexciting profile, Littell will prove to be solid in the Rays’ system.
With injuries to McClanahan, Taj Bradley, Shane Baz, Jeffrey Springs, and Drew Rasmussen, the team is running low on depth starting options. Ryan Pepiot, an addition from the Glasnow trade, has the most potential of the group of remaining arms. Both he and the injured starters are discussed later on.
While the rotation is in shambles, the Rays do enter the season with one of their healthier bullpens in recent memory. It’s likely the team will use an opener, potentially newly signed contact-arm Tyler Alexander, in the rotation’s fifth spot. Other long relief options include Jacob Waguespack and Shawn Armstrong. Filling out the rest of the bullpen will be veteran righty Chris Devenski, nasty lefty Garrett Cleavinger, right-handed signee Phil Maton, breakout left-hander Colin Poche, and consistent righty Jason Adam.
Closing games this season will likely be Pete Fairbanks, who has easily some of the best stuff in all of baseball. His over-the-top four-seamer comes in at 98.9 mph with ridiculous vertical movement. He pairs this with a slider that falls off the map, sporting 99th percentile drop. This deadly combination is showcased below.
In totality, the Rays really have two glaring questions: how do you fill the role voided by Wander Franco, especially with Caminero starting the season in the minors? What will the starting rotation look like with no depth available until late in the season? This team really cannot afford any further injury issues to the pitching staff. If they do, it could be a long regular season in the stacked AL East.
Player to Watch #1: LF Randy Arozarena
Randy Arozarena’s World Baseball Classic story will remain one to remember for some time. Despite being born in Cuba, the outfielder, refusing to play for his birth country, sought other opportunities to compete in the WBC. So, he looked at Mexico, the nation where he spent the latter end of his adolescence and became a baseball superstar, playing in the Mexican Baseball League. It was from here that the he was signed by the St. Louis Cardinals, and the rest is history.
To pursue the dream of playing in the WBC, Arozarena pursued his naturalization letter from the Mexican government, and to hasten the process of becoming a Mexican citizen in time to play for their squad in the 2023 games, he went straight to the nation’s president. He earned his citizenship in ‘22, in enough time to compete for what he calls “my second home.”
Just as Arozarena has done in high-energy moments throughout his career, he showed out in the WBC. Among hitters with at least 20 plate appearances in the games, the outfielder posted the best OPS (1.507 across 28 PA) and led the way with seven extra-base hits. A highlight of the games was the 11-5 pool play victory Mexico had over the United States, a game which would lead them to take the pool from the U.S. Arozarena went three-for-five with three runs and two RBI in Mexico’s standout performance. Along with his offense, Arozarena made several highlight reel plays in the left field throughout the tournament as well.
In short, Arozerena has a keen sense of how to come through in the biggest moments. He is immensely talented offensively, posting a career OPS north of .800 and wracking up hard-hit rates in the top 20 percent of the league year after year. However, his numbers soar when it counts the most. Late in games, Arozarena posts particularly eye-popping numbers. In the eighth inning in his career, he sports an .820 OPS. In the ninth, this increases to .893, and in extra innings to .986. As for the postseason, Arozarena’s 1.104 OPS accompanies itself with some of the greatest fall performers of all time. In fact, among those with at least 100 postseason plate appearances, this figure only falls short of Lou Gehrig and Babe Ruth. Yes, only Lou Gehrig and Babe Ruth. And though his defensive numbers aren’t generally eye-popping, he certainly comes through with highlight play after highlight play in key moments.
There is nothing not to like about Arozarena, and he is certainly the type of guy you are glad is on your team rather than against, especially in the postseason. With Franco gone, the Rays’ left fielder has become the certified star of this team, and there is no one better to carry the mantle than arguably the clutchest player in baseball.
Player to Watch #2: SS Junior Caminero
20-year-old shortstop Junior Caminero is the fourth-ranked prospect in baseball according to MLB Pipeline, and his arrival to the league is coming at an opportune time. The Rays are in need of a Franco replacement, and although their top prospect is still young, the potential is certainly there.
Graded as an average defenders, Caminero’s scouting profile instead stands out in the power department, posting a 70 grade despite being listed at just 157 pounds. The thought here is that if he can fill out his frame a bit more, Caminero has the potential to be a perennial 30-home-run threat at the big league level. He achieved this mark for the first time in his professional career last season, hitting 31 bombs over 460 at bats across High-A and AA ball and finishing with a .975 OPS. Put simply, Caminero posts gaudy numbers with the bat.
Defensively, it is likely the Rays will need Caminero to play shortstop when he returns to the majors. There were some concerns with his abilities at the six last year, however, so he was moved to play third base more and showed some versatility through his quick adjustment at the hot corner. Nonetheless, Caminero already saw time with the Rays in 2023 (36 regular season PA), and although he has not made the 2024 Opening Day roster, he is likely to be recalled fairly early on in the year. While shoring up his defense at shortstop would benefit his profile, it won’t be what holds him back from holding a full-time role in the Tampa starting lineup. His chances come down to his offense, which doesn’t really seem to be a problem. Though he may struggle early on as many rookies do, Caminero will be showcasing his much-talked-about bat in the bigs sooner rather than later.
Player to Watch #3: RHP Ryan Pepiot
There is nothing not to like about newcomer Ryan Pepiot (acquired in the Glasnow trade). Brief appearances in both ‘22 and ‘23 with the Dodgers quickly proved how talented the young righty is. Sporting a mid-90s fastball with a well-located, heavy-moving changeup and a high-velocity slider, Pepiot’s three-pitch arsenal is more than enough to get by a baseball’s highest level.
The changeup particularly stands out to me, as he dots low and in on righties consistently, forcing a fair amount of foul balls into shins. The average launch angle against the pitch comes in at nine degrees, leading to a lot of ground balls and encouraging a meager 260 xwOBA. Playing this off of his plus four-seamer makes each pitch better, resulting in a combined 8 run value between the two pitches in just 42 innings a year ago.
Pepiot’s approach is largely to force weak contact, though his 24% K-rate is nothing to sneer at. In his eight appearances in 2023, he offered just five free passes, while also allowing just a 27% hard-hit rate, which would be in the 99th percentile if qualified. Pepiot’s low-walk, low-barrel approach is extremely impressive but may pose some issues once hitters begin to figure him out. Expect Pepiot to enter the 2024 season with a new gameplan, as his fastball up, changeup low-and-in approach was pretty heavily used last year.
If he continues to make adjustments and maintains the low walk rate, there is no reason to believe, with his stuff, that Pepiot can’t be one of the better arms in this Rays staff. With McClanahan out for the season and a slew of injuries present in the pitching staff, a lot of pressure is going to be on the backs of the remaining starters, Pepiot included. Hopefully, he rises to the challenge.
Position Group to Watch: Late-Season (Currently Injured) Starters
Taj Bradley. Shane Baz. Jeffrey Springs. Drew Rasmussen. Each of these starting pitchers are injured to begin the 2024 season. What does this mean for the Rays? Well, the beginning of the season might not start out great. Though Pepiot’s upside is high and Eflin’s consistency remains, guys like Civale, Littell, and (insert opener here) aren’t going to be the saviors of the staff. What two or three of these guys really are are placeholders until the others return from injury.
Taj Bradley suffered a pectoral injury during Spring Training and has been recently placed on the 15-day IL. Though not a serious injury and one which expects him to return by May, there could undoubtedly be some complications. Pec injuries are particularly painful and inhibitive for pitchers (I had one of those back in high school… not fun). When he does return, Bradley sports a fair amount of upside. Though his 5.59 ERA over 21 starts last season certainly doesn’t catch your eye (at least not in a positive way), he did post a far lower 4.79 FIP and was, of course, a rookie. With a high-octane fastball and a wipeout curveball which he doesn’t throw nearly enough, Bradley has the ability to strike out a lot of batters. Given his north-south approach and high-velocity stuff, however, he may be suited for a try in the bullpen, and he may just have the opportunity when he returns.
Shane Baz has only thrown for nine starts in his big league career thus far, six of which were last season before he was shut down due to a UCL tear. Still recovering from Tommy John surgery and dealing with an additional oblique strain, Baz will not be on the Rays’ Opening Day squad. When he does return, however, he will likely be used as a short-inning starter. Rather than roll out the opener every fifth day, going to the high-upside option with Baz for three or four innings (and more as the season progresses) would be ideal for the Rays. Baz has seen success at every level, and even as a young arm, his poise screams big league pitcher. Once he fully recovers from Tommy John, he will be an upside option in the Rays’ rotation.
Jeffrey Springs is a veteran lefty who transitioned from the Rays’ bullpen to their starting rotation between 2021 and ‘22. His career as a starter up to this point has gone as well as could be expected, posting a miniscule 2.34 ERA over 28 starts. Three of those kicked off Springs’ 2023 season as the best starter in baseball, but a quick torn UCL later and he was ruled out for the season. Despite his success as a starter, Springs’ road back to the rotation is likely more difficult than Baz due to age and the former’s long history in the bullpen. He is expected back sometime in the middle of the season, and if other injuries pop up (which they are likely to), Springs may be needed to start some ballgames.
Drew Rasmussen, the final arm to return later in the season, could prove to be a key piece for the Rays down the stretch. Just like Springs, Rasmussen’s time in Tampa as a starter couldn’t have gone better up to this point. In nearly 250 innings with the Rays, Rasmussen has put together a 2.70 ERA. A UCL tear derailed his successful stretch, though, and puts him in a similar place as Baz and Springs. Put simply, everything about Rasmussen’s profile is positive when healthy; he doesn’t walk batters, strikes out a ton, allows weak contact, and has five positive-run-value pitch options. The Rays need Rasmussen back, badly. He could be the missing piece which propels the team to a playoff run in October.
Though Rays’ fans look optimistically towards their starting rotation for the back end of the regular season, a worrying undertone surrounds the absurd number of pitcher injuries the team incurs each year. Last year, the team’s hot start cooled as a result of an elbow ligament. It seems simple, but the truth is, the Rays haven’t shown regard for player health. The team signs pitchers, fixes them, and then casts them away after a season or two or after they get injured. I’d like to see concerted efforts from the organization to get these four arms back into the rotation and performing at a high level. They could be make or break for the team late in the season.
2024 Record Prediction: 85-77
The Rays are not healthy to start the 2024 season, and while I wish I could be optimistic and say the team will be within range of their 99-win season a year ago, there are simply too many injury questions. If I remove the torrent March/April 23-win start the team got off to in 2023 and averaged the remaining months out, you are looking at 15 wins per month. This translates to about 90 over the course of the whole season. This was in a year when the New York Yankees went 5-8 and the Red Sox went 2-11(!) against Tampa. Both of those teams improved this offseason, although you could argue the Yankees’ moves are offset by the Gerrit Cole injury. Still, he will return along with the slew of Rays starters.
You could argue the American League is getting better around the Rays, while they regressed. It is difficult to just throw out a number on a team, but 85 wins seems reasonable for a team which should score similarly to a year ago but decline significantly pitching-wise.
What Tampa needs to do, though, is just get into the playoffs. I actually feel this year is a bit different than recent, as the Rays may not post an eye-popping regular season win total but could have the necessary pieces for a playoff push. If you envision a late-season rotation of Eflin, Rasmussen, Civale, Baz, and an extra trade deadline acquisition, all of the sudden things look pretty promising. If the Rays are able to nab the six seed in the AL, it would likely be the Twins up ahead, which is winnable; then you go from there.
Categories: 2024 Season Preview, Articles, Season Analysis
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