Check out my 2023 Season Preview Article for the Cardinals here.

Image: mlb.com

2023 Record: 71-91 (.438 win%, 5th in NL Central)

2023 Payroll: $153,293,028 (17th) 

2023 Lineup:

1. CF Lars Nootbaar, .261 AVG/.367 OBP/.418 SLG, 3.2 fWAR

2. 1B Paul Goldschmidt, .268 AVG/.363 OBP/.447 SLG, 3.6 fWAR

3. 3B Nolan Arenado, .266 AVG/.315 OBP/.459 SLG, 2.6 fWAR

4. C Willson Contreras, .264 AVG/.358 OBP/.467 SLG, 2.4 fWAR

5. LF Tyler O’Neill, .231 AVG/.312 OBP/.403 SLG, 0.8 fWAR

6. RF Jordan Walker, .276 AVG/.342 OBP/.445 SLG, 0.2 fWAR

7. 2B Nolan Gorman, .236 AVG/.328 OBP/.478 SLG, 2.5 fWAR

8. DH Alec Burleson, .244 AVG/.300 OBP/.390 SLG, -0.9 fWAR

9. SS Tommy Edman, .248 AVG/.307 OBP/.399 SLG, 2.3 fWAR

10. UTIL Brendan Donovan, .284 AVG/.365 OBP/.422 SLG, 2.1 fWAR

2023 Rotation:

1. Miles Mikolas, 201.1 IP/4.78 ERA/1.32 WHIP, 3.1 fWAR

2. Jordan Montgomery, 121.0 IP/3.42 ERA/1.25 WHIP, 2.6 fWAR

3. Adam Wainwright, 101.0 IP/7.40 ERA/1.90 WHIP, -0.4 fWAR

4. Jack Flaherty, 109.2 IP/4.43 ERA/1.55 WHIP, 1.6 fWAR

5. Steven Matz, 105.0 IP/3.86 ERA/1.33 WHIP, 2.0 fWAR

2023 Top 4 Relievers:

1. Ryan Helsley, 35.2 IP/2.52 ERA/1.04 WHIP, 1.4 fWAR

2. Drew VerHagen, 61.0 IP/3.98 ERA/1.28 WHIP, -0.2 fWAR

3. Giovanny Gallegos, 55.0 IP/4.42 ERA/1.20 WHIP, 0.3 fWAR

4. Andre Pallante, 68.0 IP/4.76 ERA/1.56 WHIP, -0.1 fWAR

Regular Season Recap:

This season was supposed to be the passing of the mantle. A transition year as a new catcher and DH take over in the legendary Adam Wainwright’s final season. It was a chance to win and send the man who represents the last connection to the Cardinals of old off to retirement a three time champion. A number of unforeseen factors would make this dream unattainable.

The season started off with a game that would end up symbolically representing a large portion of the season. The Cardinals entered the game with their A-Team. The best the lineup looked all season. Every single starter got a hit. They put up 9 runs. Unfortunately, the pitching staff gave up 10 runs, including 2 in the 9th which resulted in the team’s first blown save. This would be the first of many.

On top of that, Willson Contreras left the game with an injury, forcing Knizner to replace him. He missed the next couple of games, and Lars Nootbaar missed 2 weeks after Opening Day with a thumb contusion. This chain of injuries would continue. Believe it or not, the Opening Day lineup did not start another game as a unit all season. This fact is one of the most encouraging to note when looking at the team’s potential going forward because we never got to see it all come together, and they are all returning.

The problem of defense and pitching became apparent pretty quickly, and losses started to pile up. To further the disappointment, top prospect Jordan Walker was sent back down to the minors on April 26, being told he needed to get the ball into the air more. While I didn’t disagree with sending him down at the time, I did disagree with the reasoning. He was a terrible right fielder to start the season, but an average hitter. Blaming his launch angle, which players can get the feel for at the big league level, was not good advice. Walker thought the same thing, so after messing with his swing for a few games, he just decided to ignore it, and he bounced back to himself.

On May 6, the Cardinals lost their 8th straight game after Genesis Cabrera gave up the tying run out of the bullpen, and the Tigers took advantage of the free runner in extra innings. This left the team at 10-24, already 10 GB of the division. To this point, the Cardinals had the 8th worst ERA in baseball at 4.79, and it significantly held back an above average offense. 

At this time, pitchers had begun to call out Willson Contreras in house for his style of catching and calling pitches that the pitchers did not have in their arsenal. As a result, the Cardinals decided to no longer let Contreras catch for a week as they worked with him on his gamecalling. Why this wasn’t figured out in the preseason, I will never understand. 

From the outside, Contreras appeared to be a scapegoat, but at the same time, a pitcher cannot throw a pitch that he doesn’t have. Contreras would resume catching on May 13, and we would not hear complaints from the pitching staff again.

Despite this effort, the pitching barely improved enough to play .500 baseball. Nolan Gorman had an outstanding week, being named Player of the Week on May 22 (slashing .458/.519/1.000 with 4 HR, 1 double over 6 games), boosting the team for a brief stint, but it didn’t last. Jordan Walker worked his way back up to the big leagues on June 2 with his bat improving, but he wasn’t quite a positive player yet due to outfield struggles. 

By June 21, the team had middled their way to a record of 31-44, only one game closer to .500 than they were on May 6. While this is better baseball than the season started off with, .500 baseball cannot overcome a setback like starting off 10-24, and nothing appeared to jumpstart the team. The pitching felt like an insurmountable weight, especially after blowing 25 leads in their first 79 games.

Despite a terrible first half, the Cardinals still got to travel across the pond for one of the coolest events of the season: the London Series against the Cubs. I spent the summer in Spain for an internship, so game 2 of this series was the Cardinals game I got to see in person this year, and it was spectacular. London Stadium, home of West Ham, inspired me to make many Ted Lasso references, but it was a very cool venue to see turned into a ballpark. 

The walk to the stadium revealed a unique split crowd, favoring the Cubs but with many fans of all sorts of teams. The pregame ceremony had the USA flag and the Great Britain flag next to each other in the outfield, and Albert Pujols and Dexter Fowler appeared to represent each team. During the game, I spoke with a Twins fan from London who really knew a lot about the team, and you could tell he loved the game of baseball. The Cardinals won the game and split the series, so each fanbase got to experience a win. 

From an overall baseball perspective, I think this is a great event to grow the game and to provide some baseball experiences for the fans in the area, and I am glad that MLB is pushing more unique events like this.

A 14-13 July made it reasonable to count the team out of contention for good due to their inability to play above .500 baseball, and it was getting too late in the season to expect a playoff run. 

As a result, the team decided It was time to sell rental players for prospects, and the Cardinals did a pretty good job of this at the deadline. Prior to the deadline, the team obtained C Sammy Hernandez (19) from Toronto in exchange for Genesis Cabrera. 

At the deadline, they traded Jack Flaherty to Baltimore for IF César Prieto (24), LHP Drew Rom (23), and LHP Zack Showalter (19). They sent Paul DeJong to Toronto for RHP Matt Svanson (24), and also sent Jordan Hicks to Toronto for RHP Sem Robberse (21) and RHP Adam Kloffenstein (23). Jordan Montgomery was shipped to Texas for RHP Tekoah Roby (22) and IF Thomas Saggese (21). 

Saggese appears to be a very promising middle infield prospect, which may open up more trade possibilities for the Cardinals in the future. The collection of pitching prospects has enough upside to likely produce at least one future starter for the team, and it is just good capital to pick up for rental players.

Unfortunately, shipping off these pieces meant the team would not be competing to the best of their ability for the final couple of months. This did allow the team to experiment, however, so they called up top prospect Masyn Winn and sent any banged up starters to the IL to get healthy for next season. 

Winn unfortunately didn’t quite have the breakout stint everyone was hoping for. In fact, he simply wasn’t ready to play in the big leagues. He posted a 29 OPS+ with -3 Outs Above Average in 37 games. There is still hope for the 21 year-old, but this definitely isn’t the start anyone was dreaming of.

The Cardinals were officially eliminated from playoff contention on September 20 after a loss to the Brewers.

The defense as a whole was dramatically worse than expected all season, mostly due to the way the team decided to fill outfield slots. In the outfield, you need speed and players with experience reading the ball off of the bat, and Jordan Walker and Alec Burleson did not have that. 

Couple that with more of Gorman and less of Edman and an off year for Arenado, and you’ll notice that the defense went from 7th in 2022 with 26 Outs Above Average to 19th in 2023 with -6. They went from 4th in 2022 with 67 Defensive Runs Saved to 20th in 2023 with -8. That just doesn’t cut it unless you have a team full of strikeout pitchers, and this problem needs to be addressed with lineup decisions for next season.

In the outfield, I understand why the Cardinals gave Alec Burleson a shot. He had been working hard in the organization for a long time, and his bat looked solid. But in the best league in the world, when you need to fill a spot for an extended period of time, sometimes you have to go with the most talented player, and that guy just isn’t Burleson.

A guy who shows up early every day and works as hard as he can to improve is a great example. A necessary clubhouse presence. But this team has leaders like that in Brendan Donovan, Nolan Arenado, and Paul Goldschmidt already, and high effort doesn’t mean you can take at bats every day on a competing roster. Sometimes that effort has to translate to measurable results on the field. And Alec Burleson did not produce even replacement level results offensively or defensively. He put up a -0.9 fWAR in 107 games with an 87 OPS+ and -9 Outs Above Average. He should not start a game in the outfield next season.

Wainwright’s Final Season: After competing for Team USA at the WBC, Wainwright started off the year with a groin injury. He fought back just for other injuries to creep up, so Wainwright was roughed up all year. He said recently in an interview for the St. Louis Cardinals Podcast that he lost command of his curveball early in the season, which I didn’t even think was possible, and that is likely what caused such a bad year on the stat sheet. He finished the season with a 7.40 ERA and a -2.0 bWAR. 

This bad season had a silver lining, however. After reaching 199 career wins in Baltimore, Wainwright put on a magical performance. Something about reaching milestones and final career games turns Cardinals legends back into their prime form, even if it’s just for one moment. The same thing happened for Wainwright. He went 7 innings with 0 ER, 4 H, 2 BB in a 1-0 victory to reach his 200th career win in his final career start, walking off to a standing ovation.

Although the team did not compete for a championship, Wainwright for the most part got the sendoff he deserved. He received gifts and donations from opposing teams in his final games against them throughout the season. When it came time for the final series in St. Louis, not only did Wainwright get to perform a country music concert in the second game, but he got to take 2 at-bats and received a proper farewell ceremony with Yadi and Pujols after the final game, and he was overwhelmed with emotion. To top it all off, he even got a puppy to take care of in retirement.

Thank you, Adam Wainwright, for being a leader on and off the field for so many years. You never made excuses, led by example, reinvented yourself every time the league wrote you off, and made an immeasurable impact (one might even call it a Big League Impact) on the baseball community. I will miss watching that wicked Uncle Charlie curveball that racked up so many victims and won the team a championship, but it will always live on in the memory of every fan that had the privilege of watching you play.

M-SABR Predicted Record (91-71) vs. Actual (71-91):

There was an impending collapse due to a series of factors that nobody wanted to put together, and I didn’t put it together either. It was on the defensive side of the ball for the Cardinals. In my lifetime, this side of the ball has always been the epitome of consistent excellence, so it was unfathomable to me that it could fall apart, but here’s what happened: 

• An all time great framing, gamecalling, and steal-preventing catcher named Yadier Molina retired, and the Cardinals signed a catcher who is not known to be great on defense in Contreras.
• Pitching coach Mike Maddux left to join the Texas Rangers.
• MLB made bases bigger, timed pitches, and limited pickoff attempts. 
• The Cardinals let Quintana walk and did not sign a replacement, banking on a banged up Wainwright who lost his curveball to fill the void. 
• The team decided Jordan Walker could learn to play the outfield on the fly. He could not.
• The traditionally great defense that the Cardinals usually roll out suffered a lot of injuries, and the team decided to choose offense when replacing these injuries.

When you put all of this on a pitching staff that was already bottom half of the league in 2022, sell even more pitching at the deadline, and suffer injuries to the pitching staff as well, you get the record you see above. The team finished 24th in ERA, ahead of only Rockies, Athletics, Royals, Nationals, White Sox, and Reds.

Injuries, lack of offensive consistency, and the extended tryout that was the last month of the season also led to the Cardinals finishing 19th in runs scored, a number that will dramatically improve next season if the regular hitters stay healthy and compete for a playoff spot, meaning they play for a full season. This pulled the record below what it should’ve been, even if the pitching was doomed to blow up.

Pleasant Surprise of the Season:

In a season full of unpleasant surprises, I am choosing to look at the pleasant surprise: 25 year-old Zack Thompson’s stint as a starter. Since starting his first game on August 6, Thompson led the pitching staff with 0.9 fWAR over the last 2 months of the season, posting a 4.38 ERA, 9.3 K/9, 2.55 BB/9, and a 4.01 FIP in 49.1 IP over 9 starts.

While this ERA is not outstanding, the peripherals look good, and it is a really solid and encouraging stretch from a young starter in an area of such desperate positional need for the team.

Players We Watched: 

1. 3B Nolan Arenado: 

Arenado’s defense took a bit of a dip this season, falling to 5 Outs Above Average and only 1 Defensive Run Saved, likely meaning he will miss out on a gold glove for the first time in his career. On top of the defensive struggles, Arenado posted his lowest 162 game season OPS+ since his rookie season in 2013 at just a 109 OPS+. 

It’s safe to say that Arenado underperformed expectations across the board in 2023, but he is still a very good player. Given that he was an MVP candidate in 2022, it feels like a bounceback with regression to the mean is likely for next season.

2. RF Jordan Walker: 

Walker had an interesting 2023 to say the least. He wasn’t the instant impact bat that fans were hoping for, but he developed into it as the season progressed, with a speed bump coming when he was sent down for the month of May. By season’s end, Walker had a 114 OPS+ in 117 games, so his bat was not a problem.

His glove, however, was a problem. Walker finished the season as the 5th worst defensive player in the league with -14 Outs Above Average, and was bottom 3 in Defensive Runs Saved with -16. If this continues, Walker needs to be played somewhere else or started at DH because a liability in the outfield can cost a team, especially if they don’t have strikeout pitchers.

3. UTIL Brendan Donovan: 

Donovan remains a very good piece for the Cardinals in 2023, playing a variety of positions and putting up 2.1 fWAR in just 95 games with a 115 OPS+. The pop that generated excitement in the preseason did show up, as Donovan improved from 5 HRs in 126 games in 2022 to 11 HRs in 95 games in 2023. 

If Donovan can continue to reach base at a high clip and further improve his power while staying healthy for a full season, he could be one of the most elite and versatile players in the league. Luckily for the Cardinals, Donovan will be fully recovered from his season ending elbow surgery by the start of the 2024 season.

4. Outfield Position Group: 

What I framed as a potential battle for play time amongst too many quality outfielders ended up breaking in the opposite direction due to constant injuries. There was an extended period where Tommy Edman was the starting center fielder, and there was even a game where every outfield starter was a career primary infielder. 

When there was a battle for playing time, Alec Burleson usually won it for reasons that fans can only guess. Nootbaar was excellent this season and was seemingly the only consistent brightspot in this outfield group. Tyler O’Neill was serviceable when he played, Carlson is working to get healthy, and Jordan Walker could be elite if he improves on defense or gets moved to DH.

Offseason Outlook:

There are enough positive signs from parts of this season and the players’ track records that it is reasonable to expect the Cardinals to retool this offseason and make a run at a playoff spot next season. The target should be to sign at least 2 starting pitchers, one being elite, and sure up the bullpen. 

With Aaron Nola, Eduardo Rodriguez, Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, Josh Hader, and Yoshinobu Mamamoto from Japan on the market, there are a few good options. I would avoid Blake Snell and other pitchers with command issues and stick to dependable guys who can throw for a lot of innings to pair with this offense and limit bullpen workload. 

A rotation of Eduardo Rodriguez, Sonny Gray, Miles Mikolas, and the best 2 of Steven Matz / Dakota Hudson / Zack Thompson along with even a mid level bullpen addition would be a dramatic improvement and a wildly successful offseason.

Harrison Bader, Jordan Hicks, and Jordan Montgomery are on the market as well, so be on the lookout for a potential reunion.

What to Pay Attention to in the Future:

Pay attention to offseason news because I could see some trades in the team’s near future. With Brendan Donovan, Tommy Edman, and Nolan Gorman vying for 2 middle infield spots and Jordan Walker, Tyler O’Neill, Lars Nootbaar, and Dylan Carlson vying for 3 outfield spots, someone will be pushed to DH and someone else will be a utility player. 

I nominate Jordan Walker for full time DH, sometimes subbing in at 3B or in the outfield with Donovan playing over 100 games in utility and DH to let the other players have rest days. With this setup, the defense is elite again, but there is no room for Juan Yepez, Alec Burleson, or more importantly Masyn Winn, Thomas Saggese, or any other position player prospects to play in 2024. 

This means they could reasonably be bundled and traded for pitching, or a current starting player could be moved for pitching to clear space going forward.

Also, reports are already out that the Cardinals will pursue Aaron Nola and Sonny Gray, so keep your eye on those two huge pitching pieces which would transform this team for 2024.

Categories: 2023 Season Review, Articles, Season Analysis

Tags: 2023 Season Review, St. Louis Cardinals