Image: Heather Khalifa/The Philadelphia Inquirer
2023 Record: 90-72 (.556 win%, 2nd in Division)
2024 Payroll: $247,182,617 (4th)
2024 Projected Lineup (Projected Stats by FanGraphs):
1. DH Kyle Schwarber, .221 AVG/.347 OBP/.481 SLG, 2.3 fWAR
2. SS Trea Turner, .284 AVG/.337 OBP/.467 SLG, 4.5 fWAR
3. 1B Bryce Harper, .282 AVG/.389 OBP/.522 SLG, 4.1 fWAR
4. 3B Alec Bohm, .274 AVG/.330 OBP/.423 SLG, 1.8 fWAR
5. 2B Bryson Stott, .262 AVG/.321 OBP/.398 SLG, 2.5 fWAR
6. C J.T. Realmuto, .253 AVG/.319 OBP/.438 SLG, 2.8 fWAR
7. RF Nick Castellanos, .259 AVG/.307 OBP/.444 SLG, 0.5 fWAR
8. LF Brandon Marsh, .247 AVG/.327 OBP/.398 SLG, 1.7 fWAR
9. CF Johan Rojas, .247 AVG/.292 OBP/.364 SLG, 0.7 fWAR
10. UTL Whit Merrifield, .255 AVG/.303 OBP/.371 SLG, 0.2 fWAR
2024 Projected Starting Rotation:
1. RHP Zack Wheeler, 196 IP/3.58 ERA/1.16 WHIP, 5.0 fWAR
2. RHP Aaron Nola, 196.0 IP/3.83 ERA/1.14 WHIP, 4.8 fWAR
3. LHP Ranger Suárez, 152.0 IP/4.03 ERA/1.35 WHIP, 2.3 fWAR
4. RHP Taijuan Walker, 172.0 IP/4.72 ERA/1.39 WHIP, 1.8 fWAR
5. LHP Cristopher Sánchez, 130 IP/4.20 ERA/1.31 WHIP, 1.7 fWAR
2024 Projected Top 4 Relievers:
1. LHP José Alvarado, 74.0 IP/3.31 ERA/1.23 WHIP, 1.7 fWAR
2. RHP Jeff Hoffman, 73.0 IP/4.00 ERA/1.25 WHIP, 0.8 fWAR
3. LHP Gregory Soto, 70.0 IP/4.07 ERA/1.32 WHIP, 0.6 fWAR
4. RHP Seranthony Domínguez, 70.0 IP/4.06 ERA/1.33 WHIP, 0.5 fWAR
What Baseball Means to Philly?
Philadelphia has perhaps the most passionate, and infamous, fans across sports. Their reputation precedes them, with many outside of the city ranking them as among the most insufferable. However, the die-hard nature of Phillies fans makes for arguably the best atmosphere in the sport. Manager Rob Thomson even revealed that a rival manager informed him that the playoff atmosphere at Citizens Bank Park was “four hours of hell.”
Diamondbacks pitcher Merill Kelly, however, asserted that Philadelphia was not the loudest place he ever played in. Phillies fans used this as motivation and jeered Kelly on the mound as they blew out Arizona 10-0 in game two of the NLCS.
Despite the jeering, there is something mystical about the Phillies fan base and their connection to the team, especially shown by Bryson Stott’s walkup song “A-O-K” by Tai Verdes echoing throughout the stadium. After Trea Turner struggled throughout his first season with the team, fans did not boo but gave him a standing ovation, hoping their support would ignite a spark. Fortunately for Philadelphia, Turner became red hot, with an OPS of 1.067 and 16 home runs in the 48 games the Phillies played. With expectations of another deep postseason run, expect the Bank to be rocking.
2023-24 Offseason Recap:
The Phillies offseason was rather uneventful, focused on maintaining the core pieces of their pitching rotation. They started by extending Aaron Nola to a seven-year, $172 million contract despite a down year, posting an ERA of 4.46, though I will write more on him later. They later extended Zack Wheeler for three years and $126 million. Dave Dombrowski securing the Phillies aces ensures another year with a strong starting rotation.
The Phillies did not make many additions, though one of the key ones was signing Whit Merrifield from Toronto on a one-year, $8 million contract. Merrifield provides a solid righty contact bat off the bench, finishing with a .272 batting average and in the 82nd percentile for whiff percentage. He also poses a threat on the basepath, with 26 stolen bases last season.
However, the Phillies did lose some significant players to free agency. This includes 1B Rhys Hoskins to the Brewers on a two-year, $34 million contract after he missed last season with a torn ACL. Hoskins has been a premier power bat since he entered the league in 2017, fourth in NL homers with 148 and also has a great eye, finishing fifth in NL walks. Despite sporting a strong offense without him, Philadelphia will miss their fan-favorite first baseman and reminisce on his emphatic bat slam against the Braves in the 2022 NLDS.
The team also lost reliever Craig Kimbrel to the Orioles on a one-year, $10 million deal. Kimbrel at times showed his dominance of the past but ended his Phillies tenure with a disappointing NLCS, allowing four earned runs in three innings and losing the closer job.
2024 Regular Season Preview:
After coming agonizingly close to another World Series appearance, falling just short in the NLCS to the Diamondbacks, the Phillies look to make some noise, returning most of their core. The Phils are a very well-rounded team, with a potent lineup capable of wrecking games and a very strong rotation to shut opponents down.
The Phillies lead-off man is not one known for consistent contact, but when he does put bat to ball, it goes a long way. That, of course, is Kyle Schwarber, who finished second in the majors with 47 homers in 2023. Despite posting a career-high in long balls, Schwarber batted below the Mendoza line at .197, though his expected batting average was higher at .221. His BABIP was also very low at .209. Striking out at a 29.9% clip, in the 12th percentile per Baseball Savant, is dire but consistent with his career average. However, when Schwarber does hit the ball, it is usually a barrel, with a 96th percentile barrel rate. In addition, he has a great eye, walking at an elite 17.5% rate, good for the 99th percentile. I expect Schwarber to have marginal improvements in his batting average based on his ability to hit the ball on the nose and coming off of a low-BABIP year.
Succeeding Schwarber is Philadelphia’s $300-million shortstop, Trea Turner, who struggled for most of last season before a late resurgence. Prior to August, Turner’s OPS was a mere .657, and he only hit 10 home runs before picking up the pace. The roots of Turner’s struggles are attributed to a significant increase in his strikeout rate, from 18.5% to 21.7% between the last two seasons. His wRC+ also decreased significantly from 128 to 108, which is much closer to the null of 100, and his defense dropped markedly, posting an OAA of -4. Despite his struggles, Turner is still a menace on the basepath, however, posting 30 stolen bases in 2023. Based on his late-season resurgence, look for much better production from the Phillies shortstop in ’24.
After Turner comes Philly’s superstar, Bryce Harper. Following his return from Tommy John to play first base mid-season, Harper’s production remained elite, highlighted by a 3.9% increase in walk rate from the year prior. His power slightly regressed, posting a slugging percentage of .499, his lowest since 2018, though here he was slightly unlucky, with an xSLG of .530, good for the 93rd percentile. Harper still hammers the ball with a 15.2% barrel rate, in the 92nd percentile, and should continue his MVP-level production in 2024.
Next in the lineup is Alec Bohm, who had his best full season to date in 2023. He hit 20 home runs for the first time in his career and improved his SLG from .398 to .437. A catalyst for this production is a drop in K% to 15.4, the 89th percentile. His wRC+ also improved to 105, his best mark since the COVID-shortened 2020 season. Bohm was also slightly unlucky last season, with an xBA of .290 (93rd percentile). Because of this, Bohm projects to go up another level in 2024.
Following Bohm is Bryson Stott, who proved to be quite the revelation last season, posting a WAR of 3.9 and a slash line of .280/.329/.419, all much improved from his rookie season. Stott does not swing and miss often, posting a whiff rate of 15.1 (95th percentile) and a K% of 15.6 (87th percentile). Stott also terrorized catchers across the majors with 31 stolen bases. In addition to his offensive career year, he played Gold-Glove-caliber defense, posting 17 OAA (99th percentile). Because these improvements were so substantial from 2022, Stott has the potential to slightly regress but still post strong numbers.
Next is Phillies backstop J.T. Realmuto, who has long been one of the best all-around catchers in the league for years. However, Realmuto had a significant drop in production last season, highlighted by his WAR falling from 6.5 to 1.5 between ’22 and ’23. His wRC+ plummeted to 102 after posting 128 in 2022, and he wracked up a career-high strikeout rate of 25.6% as well. Despite these drops, Realmuto still managed 20 home runs and had an impact on the basepath with 16 stolen bases.
His defensive statistics plummeted in 2023, with a -13 grade for framing and -9 in run value, both career lows. His blocks against average of 12 (96th percentile) and pop time of 1.83 seconds (100th percentile) remain elite, however. Realmuto’s defensive season seems like an anomaly, and his offense should rebound somewhat, though maybe not to the level of his best years.
Manning right field is Nick Castellanos, whose production rebounded from 2022 with a significant increase in OPS from sub-.700 to nearly .800, though still not to the level of years past. His power returned as well, posting 29 homers. However, his strikeout rate rose to 27.6%, a four-point increase from 2022. Based on this uptick, Castellanos could experience some regression into the new year.
In the other corner of the outfield is Brandon Marsh, who had a career year last season, posting a slashline of .277/.372/.458. Despite this, Baseball Savant suggests Marsh was extremely lucky, with an xBA of .234 and an xSLG of .391. His strikeout rate, while lower than previous seasons, was still very high at 30.5%. Marsh’s walk rate was strong, though, at 12.5% (88th percentile), and he was also very solid defensively with 7 OAA. Based on his overachievement relative to his expected statistics, Marsh will probably not produce as much as he did last season.
Rounding out the outfield and playing center is Johan Rojas, whom I will discuss as a player to watch later.
The Phillies rotation is headlined by the two-headed monster of Aaron Nola, whom I will discuss later, and Zack Wheeler. Wheeler stepped up for the Phillies as Nola had a down year. His ERA spiked by .79 to 3.61, attributed in large part to his increase in HR/9 to .94. However, metrics suggest Wheeler got unlucky, with an xERA of 3.18, closer to his xERA of 3.10 in 2022. His K/9 spiked to 9.94 and BB/9 dropped to 1.83. This spike in ERA is curious though, and I expect Wheeler to improve his run control and have another strong season.
The Phillies’ third rotation man is Ranger Suárez, who is a very solid option, though did not have a great 2023, with an ERA that spiked to 4.18 and an xERA even higher at 4.36. Suárez’s BABIP was the main culprit for this regression, with a .324 mark, a .29 increase from the 2022 figure, and a decrease in ground ball rate. His metrics across the board were not super strong, but his one saving grace was his breaking pitch run value of 10 (92nd percentile), a major increase from 2022. If Suárez can improve his fastball to above-average production and maintain elite breaking stuff, he is bound to have a strong 2024.
Filling the fourth spot in the rotation is Taijuan Walker, who took a step back in his debut season with the Phillies, finishing with a 4.38 ERA, compared to his 2022 3.49 ERA. Walker’s culprits in this spike were a full season career-high in BB/9 of 3.70 and a drop in K/9 to 7.19. Despite his decline in production, his offspeed run value remained elite at 5 (90th percentile). Based on the universal regression, Walker needs to find his 2022 magic to improve significantly from his last season.
The fifth man in the Phillies rotation is Cristopher Sánchez. Sánchez bounced back and forth between the minors and majors until 2023, when he finally seemed to settle down into a starting role. In 99 innings, Sánchez had an ERA of 3.44 (xERA of 3.74) and an FIP of 3.99, though his xFIP number asserted that he was unlucky at 3.09. The catalyst to this breakout season was an elite walk rate of 4.0% (98th percentile), elite ground ball percentage of 57.7 (95th percentile), and swing and miss ability to get batters to chase at a 34.8% clip (97th percentile). Based on some elite traits, Sánchez could provide a stable fifth option in a strong Philadelphia rotation.
The Phillies bullpen was among the best in the majors in 2023, with a fWAR of 6.8, good for third in baseball. Their bullpen ERA of 3.58 finished seventh in the majors, and they get their outs mainly through the strikeout, with a collective 9.77 K/9, sixth overall. The pen is spearheaded by southpaw José Alvarado. Alvarado put up an elite 2023, finishing with a 1.75 ERA and 13.9 K/9. While Rob Thomson has not named a closer yet, many suspect Alvarado to be the guy. His pitch arsenal is highlighted by an elite sinker, which he throws at an average of 98.7 MPH, and a cutter which has helped his surge as a dominant reliever. Regardless of if he closes, Alvarado will be a stalwart in the bullpen.
Another premier arm in the bullpen is Jeff Hoffman, whom I will discuss later.
Southpaw Gregory Soto is also another important piece in the bullpen, though his numbers regressed in 2023, with an ERA of 4.62 and 0.90 HR/9, a 0.6 increase from 2022. However, several metrics suggest Soto was extremely unlucky this past season, with an xERA of 2.79 and a FIP of 3.59. In addition, he actually improved his strikeout rate to 9.70, almost a full point higher than 2022 and his BB/9 decreased from 5.07 to 3.28. The discrepancy between his ERA and the rest of his statistics shows that Soto is due for a strong, and luckier, 2024 season.
Rookie Orion Kerkering also projects to play an important role in the bullpen this season. The 23-year-old quickly ascended the Phillies minor league system, moving up from A ball all the way to the MLB playoffs last season, though he had some rookie moments there. Kerkering’s pitch arsenal is highlighted by an elite slider and a strong four-seamer. Based on his rapid ascension, I think Kerkering will be one of the Phillies premier bullpen arms during his rookie season.
The bullpen is rounded out by veterean pieces, such as Seranthony Domínguez and Matt Strahm.
Player to Watch #1: RHP Aaron Nola
Nola’s regression was well documented last season, finishing with an ERA of 4.46 and heavily-declined K/9 of 9.39. Nola’s decline in production was fueled by an increase in BB/9 to 2.09 (up from 1.27 in 2022), though this is still a solid rate. His increase in allowing the long ball was also prevalent, with a HR/9 of 1.49.
At his best, Nola is one of the premier pitchers in the league, practically eliminating walks and showcasing his ability to strikeout batters. There are signs that he could somewhat return to his former self, as an xERA of 3.71 and xFIP of 3.63 show he was slightly unlucky last season. He also forces an elite chase rate of 34.7% (96th percentile).
If Nola is to pitch to his capabilities, he needs to do so through his fastball command, as in 2022, his heater run value of 22 was in the 98th percentile, despite the pitch clocking in at 92.5 MPH in average velocity (27th percentile). In 2023, Nola’s fastball run value was -1, despite his velocity remaining almost the same. Ultimately, I think Nola will return to being a very good pitcher, though maybe not to his peak.
Player to Watch #2: CF Johan Rojas
Last season, Johan Rojas was called up from AA ball and played 59 games. In those games, he had solid offensive output, with a .302 average and wRC+ of 109, despite specializing in centerfield defense. Rojas’ OAA of 9 (95th percentile) in just 59 games is ridiculous, and he could be a Gold Glove contender in the NL this upcoming season.
Many metrics suggest his offense was an aberration, as his xBA was .247 and his xSLG of .304 was significantly lower than his actual .430 mark. Rojas’ walk percentage is also not encouraging for this upcoming season, finishing at 3% last year. However, Rojas is very good on the basepath, with 14 stolen bases last season and 30 in 76 games in AAA ball. Based on his numbers, Rojas’ offensive output will likely regress, showing that this side of his game is still developing. A successful 2024 season for him would be continuing the elite defensive play while showing sustained improvement, regardless of what the stats say.
Player to Watch #3: RHP Jeff Hoffman
Jeff Hoffman broke out as one of the best relievers in baseball last year during his debut season with the Phillies. Hoffman finished with a 2.41 ERA and a FIP of 2.57. His improvement is seemingly miraculous, as he began his career as a starting pitcher in Colorado but struggled to slow down offenses. Playing at Coors Field didn’t help, but his numbers were not good either, highlighted by a 2019 ERA of 6.56.
After moving to the bullpen for the Reds, his numbers began to improve, striking out more batters while improving his ERA. In 2022, he showed some promise, which led to the Phillies signing him in the offseason. Hoffman’s rapid ascent is rooted in a drastic increase in strikeouts, finishing with 11.87 K/9, almost 3 higher than last season, and cutting his HR/9 in half to 0.52. Hoffman’s walk rate also dropped to 3.27, over a full point from 2022. Hoffman’s consistent improvement as a relief pitcher allows me to believe his improvement is sustainable, and he will put up another strong campaign.
Player Group to Watch: 2023 Stars That Regressed
Philadelphia’s early season struggles are in large part attributed to established star players such as Aaron Nola, Trea Turner, and J.T. Realmuto taking significant steps back in 2023. Despite his poor production at times in 2023, Nola’s postseason play was very encouraging for a return to form in 2024, posting an ERA of 2.35 while seeing improvements in his walk and home run rate from the regular season. His strong starts were what propelled Philadelphia to within one game of returning to the World Series.
Trea Turner’s struggles seemed like a prolonged adjustment period rather than a worrying regression, as showcased by his elite last couple months of the season. Turner continued this hot streak into the playoffs, finishing with an OPS of 1.033, three homers, and four stolen bases. Now that Turner is settled in, he should threaten the 30 home run, 30 stolen base club and potentially hit it for the first time in his career.
Realmuto’s strong postseason suggests that he too could bounce back in 2024, highlighted by an improved slugging percentage to 531. If these stars can rebound in 2024, the Phillies could snatch the NL East title from the Braves and challenge them and the Dodgers for NL supremacy.
2024 Record Prediction: 93-69
I’m projecting an improvement from the Phillies this season, mainly due to bounce-backs from players like Nola and Turner. The Phillies struggled against their NL East foes last season, finishing with a 25-27 record within the division (20-19 against the non-Braves teams). I expect this mark to improve because the rest of the division is due for regression; the Marlins offensively are not there, the Mets are gearing towards a youth movement, and the Nationals are in the midst of a rebuild. The potent lineup along with a strong rotation gears the Phillies towards challenging the Braves for the NL East crown. While I think the Braves will win the division, the Phillies are destined for another deep playoff run given their players’ intangible ability to come up clutch.
Categories: 2024 Season Preview, Articles, Season Analysis
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