Image: Katherine Frey / The Washington Post

2023 Record: 71-91 (.438 win%, Last in Division)

2024 Payroll: $90,171,429 (24^th)

2024 Projected Lineup (Projected Stats by FanGraphs):

1. SS CJ Abrams (L), .256 AVG/.308 OBP/.412 SLG, 2.5 fWAR

2. RF Lane Thomas (R), .251 AVG/.313 OBP/.437 SLG, 1.4 fWAR

3. LF Jesse Winker (L), .244 AVG/.354 OBP/.392 SLG, 0.5 fWAR

4. DH Joey Meneses (R), .267 AVG/.316 OBP/.428 SLG, 0.6 fWAR

5. 1B Joey Gallo (L), .191 AVG/.314 OBP/.413 SLG, 0.8 fWAR

6. C Keibert Ruiz (S), .269 AVG/.323 OBP/.434 SLG, 1.4 fWAR

7. 3B Nick Senzel (R), .231 AVG/.296 OBP/.346 SLG, -0.2 fWAR

8. 2B Luis García (L), .273 AVG/.314 OBP/.422 SLG, 1.3 fWAR

9. CF Victor Robles (R), .245 AVG/.319 OBP/.372 SLG, 1.1 fWAR

10. UTL Ildemaro Vargas (S), .256 AVG/.303 OBP/.374 SLG, 0.6 fWAR

2024 Projected Starting Rotation:

1. RHP Josiah Gray, 173.0 IP/4.87 ERA/1.41 WHIP, 1.4 fWAR

2. LHP Patrick Corbin, 164.0 IP/5.17 ERA/1.48 WHIP, 1.0 fWAR

3. LHP MacKenzie Gore, 145.0 IP/4.23 ERA/1.34 WHIP, 2.2 fWAR

4. RHP Jake Irvin, 117.0 IP/4.94 ERA/1.42 WHIP, 1.0 fWAR

5. RHP Trevor Williams, 88.0 IP/5.15 ERA/1.45 WHIP, 0.4 fWAR

2024 Projected Top 4 Relievers:

1. RHP Kyle Finnegan, 66.0 IP/4.08 ERA/1.32 WHIP, 0.7 fWAR

2. RHP Hunter Harvey, 64.0 IP/3.74 ERA/1.18 WHIP, 1.1 fWAR

3. RHP Tanner Rainey, 60.0 IP/4.66 ERA/1.40 WHIP, 0.3 fWAR

4. RHP Jordan Weems, 62.0 IP/4.56 ERA/1.38 WHIP, 0.2 fWAR

What Baseball Means to D.C.?

Washington D.C. has a long history with baseball. The Washington Senators/Nationals turned into the Minnesota Twins (1961), and then the new Washington Senators moved to Texas to become the Texas Rangers (1972). D.C. did not have an MLB team for 33 years. In 2005, the Montreal Expos moved to D.C. and became the current Washington Nationals. Now with a baseball organization in the city for the foreseeable future, it is clear D.C. loves its team, as the city was electric during the 2019 playoffs and World Series championship.

During the past four disappointing seasons, fan attendance has dropped alongside wins. In 2023, the total regular season home attendance was 1.87 million, the lowest mark since 2010 (not including 2020 and 2021 when attendance was limited due to the Covid-19 pandemic). The Nationals averaged about 23,000 fans at each of their home games last season, which is disappointing considering Nationals Park seats over 41,000. This was good for the eighth lowest fan attendance last year. Nationals fans are better than this and need to support their team even during a time of rebuilding. Hopefully, with great prospects, new faces, and a good start to the season, fan attendance will rise again. 

Nationals Park is a beautiful stadium, and the area around it is growing rapidly. It continues to become a better place to spend time before and after games, which can only help attendance and the fan experience. The Nationals are an important team to not only D.C. but the entire DMV. Of course there are the Baltimore Orioles, but many Marylanders still root for the Nationals (including myself). As much fun as it was seeing the Orioles’ great season, Nats fans are rooting hard for a similar emergence.

2023-24 Offseason Recap:

In their third year rebuilding, one might think that the Nationals would have had an exciting offseason, but what they actually did was far from it. General Manager Mike Rizzo said that they would take action when they were ready, and clearly this year was not it. This makes sense, though, considering that the Nationals do not yet appear ready to make a playoff push. 

The Nationals signed 1B/RF Joey Gallo, 3B Nick Senzel, and RHP Dylan Floro to major league contracts this offseason. Both Gallo and Senzel are predicted to be in the starting lineup, so they are certain to be key additions to the team. 

Gallo signed a one-year, $5 million contract with the Nationals after becoming a free agent this past year. In 2023, he hit a meager .177 with 21 homers and 40 RBI with the Twins, a second-straight poor performance. In both 2020 and 2021, Gallo won a Gold Glove Award, but again, the past couple of seasons have been uncharacteristically subpar for Gallo. The Nationals’ hope is that his bat heats up again and his power-hitting presence will help the team.

Nick Senzel is an interesting addition to the Nationals’ roster. Last season, he batted .236 with 13 homers and 42 RBIs with the Reds. His past few years have been plagued with injury, yet he managed to play five different positions (3B, LF, CF, RF, 1B) in 2023. The majority of his games were at 3B, which is where the Nationals are most likely playing him.

Senzel was once a top prospect, and the hope is that he can be, at the very least, valuable defensively at third base. This is a questionable signing, though, because of his injury history and the three-straight negative WAR seasons he has posted. Last season, the Nationals rolled out Jeimer Candelario at third base, which proved to be a successful move in free agency, as he was one of the team’s hottest hitters before being traded at the deadline. Expecting Senzel to replace his production is likely unattainable.

The last big league contract the Nationals signed this offseason was that of RHP Dylan Floro, penning a one-year, $2.25 million deal. Floro was a key relief pitcher for the Dodgers’ in their 2020 World Series season and had a great year with the Marlins in ’21. Last season, however, he pitched poorly with an ERA of 4.76. If he can get back on track in 2024, Floro will be a great bullpen option for the Nationals.

Although there were not many moves made this offseason, the team is focusing on developing their prospects, which could be vital to the team improving in the coming years. If these key signings return to old form, they could be great additions to the team.

Key Acquisitions:

• RHP Dylan Floro – one year, $2.25 million
• UTL Nick Senzel – one year, $2 million
• 1B/RF Joey Gallo – one year, $5 million
• OF Jesse Winker – signed minor league contract
• RHP Derek Law – signed minor league contract
• RHP Matt Barnes – signed minor league contract
• OF Eddie Rosario – signed minor league contract

Key Departures:

• INF Michael Chavis – signed minor league contract with SEA
• RHP Carl Edwards Jr. – signed minor league contract with CHC
• RHP Andrés Machado – signed with Orix Buffaloes of NPB
• 1B Dominic Smith – free agent

2024 Regular Season Preview:

The Nationals are obviously not on their way to a World Series. The chances they make the playoffs are predicted to be near 0%, and it would be a miracle if they even had a winning record this season. There is not much hope for the team, with many predicting 50- or 60-win season. I have more faith in them than, for example, Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA model, which predicts them winning a whopping 58 games. 

2023 will probably be a fifth-straight rough season for Nationals fans, but if the young players develop and the veterans improve from lackluster previous seasons, there is a chance for the Nats to put together a decent year. Any improvement from last season’s 71-91 record would be a welcome sight in the midst of the rebuild. 

The Nationals don’t have any guaranteed All-Stars or notable names, but if CJ Abrams continues to showcase his speed and improves his hitting, Josiah Gray has his best season yet, and a few other bats come alive, the Nationals might see more wins sooner rather than later. With prospect outfielders Dylan Crews and James Wood as possible stars in the making, the 2025 or 2026 Nationals could be a competitive team again.

Player to Watch #1: RHP Josiah Gray

For a team that began rebuilding less than three years ago and only has two remaining players on their active roster from the World Series squad, it is difficult to say there is one “best” player on the team, a face of the team (missing Ryan Zimmerman right now), or an extremely well-known player. The Nationals sent just one player to the All-Star Game last year, and that was Josiah Gray.

It was recently announced that Gray will be the Opening Day starter in 2024. This is a breath of fresh air for the team. The past two seasons, Patrick Corbin opened the season for the Nats, following a ten-year string of just two Opening Day starters, Stephen Strasburg and Max Scherzer. A young face on the mound for the Nationals on Opening Day is representative of the very young team. In 2023, the Nationals had the fifth-youngest team in the MLB, with their average player age being 27. Gray is the Nationals’ youngest Opening Day pitcher since 2014 (Strasburg was 25 that season).

Last season, Gray started 30 games with an 8-13 record. This was the best season of his career, and his future is bright. When the Nationals traded Trea Turner and Max Scherzer to the Los Angeles Dodgers for Gray and other young players, there was a hope that the young righty would become a key piece of the new Nationals’ core. With a gradual generational shift occurring throughout the team, Gray has an opportunity to prove himself and become the face of the Nationals.

Player to Watch #2: OF Dylan Crews

Dylan Crews, the number two draft pick in 2023, is quickly making his way to the Nationals’ 26-man roster. At just 21 years old, Dylan Crews is Washington’s top prospect and ranked seventh in the league by MLB Pipeline. Fans are hopeful the LSU product can make a big impact at the big league level sooner rather than later.

In his first spring training with a professional team, Crews is seeing his fair share of struggles, though he did hit his first home run with the team. I could see him as a regular in our starting lineup soon and potentially in Victor Robles’ spot. Robles only played in 36 games last year due to a lingering back injury and is the team’s starting centerfielder heading into 2024; he will have to prove himself if he wants to keep his place. 

Last year, Crews won the Golden Spikes Award for best player in amateur baseball, and suitably, the Nationals need someone to power their young offense. The combination of Crews, James Wood (Nationals’ second-ranked prospect), Lane Thomas, and other batters could help power the Nationals to a strong offensive season.

Player to Watch #3: SS CJ Abrams

The last player to watch is shortstop CJ Abrams. Another young player on the roster, the 23-year-old is taking after Nationals’ legendary shortstop Trea Turner. Turner previously held the franchise record for most stolen bases in a season, a strong 46 (set in 2017). In the very last game of 2023, Abrams stole his 46th and 47th bases, surpassing Turner’s record.

The last game of the season also showed promise for the Nationals, with a come-from-behind victory against the division-winning Atlanta Braves. Abrams drove in the go-ahead runs to help the team in its 10-9 triumph.

Abrams batted .245 and hit 18 home runs last season, an impressive year for just a 22-year-old. Manager Dave Martinez sees hope in the future for Abrams and the rest of the young team. With incredible speed, developing batting, and impressive defensive at the shortstop position, Abrams’ success is vital to the Nationals.

At the end of last season, Abrams said that the team had a lot in store and “we know we’re going to do better next year.” I look forward to watching Abrams develop and hope he can continue to be a standout shortstop and hitter.

Position Group to Watch: Players 26 and Younger

Four-of-nine of the Nationals’ projected starting lineup and two-of-five of their starting rotation are ages 26 or under. The Nationals are the 10th-youngest team in baseball heading into 2024, with an average age of 27.9. These youthful four position players and two pitchers are crucial to the team’s success this year and in the future.

Victor Robles (26), CJ Abrams (23), Keibert Ruiz (25), and Luis García (23) are each of great importance to the Nationals. Robles, although still young, is the only position player in the lineup who also started for the Nationals the year they won the World Series. The past few seasons, he has continued to be a spectacular outfielder, but his hitting has gone downhill since 2019. The outfielder is becoming a veteran member of the team, and his success is crucial to both the Nationals’ success and for him to maintain his spot in the starting lineup.

CJ Abrams is only 23, but as the leadoff guy for the Nationals, his hitting is vital to the team. He had a phenomenal season with the Nationals last year, and his future is bright. Acquired in the Juan Soto/Josh Bell trade with the Padres in 2022, Abrams putting together a strong season both offensively and defensively will tremendously help Washington in 2024.

Keibert Ruiz, starting catcher for the Nationals, is only 25 years old. He was a key part of the Max Scherzer/Trea Turner deal from the LA Dodgers and is a key part of the future of the Nationals.

Finally, second baseman Luis García is only 23 and already becoming a daily piece of the Nationals’ lineup. Last season, he batted .266 with 50 RBIs and 9 home runs. His season was inconsistent, so the Nationals need him to find more steady success in 2024.

Josiah Gray (26) and MacKenzie Gore (25) are the young arms in the Nats’ starting rotation this season. As mentioned above, Gray’s success is imperative for the Nationals. The team has confidence in him, assigning him as the Opening Day starter to set the tone for the team this season.

MacKenzie Gore, also acquired in the Juan Soto/Josh Bell trade, is important to the rotation and has been performing well during spring training. Both Manager Dave Martinez and former pitcher Sean Doolittle (now the Nationals’ new pitching strategist) have expressed confidence in Gore.

As a young team learning how to play as one, these six players must step up. Hopefully, with veterans Patrick Corbin and Joey Gallo around, the young players will develop and be just the thing the Nationals need to be successful. 

2024 Record Prediction: 80-82

19-31. A record engraved into the brains of Nationals fans and players. This was their record fifty games into 2019, the year they wound up securing a Wild Card spot and then going on to win the World Series. The next four seasons, though, the Nationals finished last in their division. In 2021, the Nationals only won 61 games. In 2022, they mustered just 55 wins. However, 2023 was looking up in their rebuilding process, and with an uptick to 71 victories, the future is promising.

When the Nationals began their rebuilding process in 2021, General Manager Mike Rizzo acknowledged that there were major changes coming for the team, but also noted his prior experience constructing a rebuild. Back in 2009, the Nationals were in a similar situation and won a mere 59 games. The next season, they won 69, then continued increasing their record before going on to win four division titles in six years (2012, 2014, 2016, 2017).

The Nationals are again at the point they were in 2010, and hopefully the pattern will continue and the Nationals will be able to break the 80-win barrier. As the rebuild is yet to be finished, it is not expected for the team to make the playoffs. Winning 80+ games, however, would be a boost of confidence for the team, as they have not had a winning record since 2019.

80 games is certainly a generous amount of wins for a team who has not won much in a very long time, but I have faith in the Nationals. In 2019, their mantra was to go 1-0 every game. The Nationals need to do the same this year and focus day-by-day. This will also be a year of developing the young talent in the farm system, and hopefully in the next few years, Washington will put together a playoff-caliber roster.

In the National League East, the Braves and Phillies are the two strongest teams. The Braves are predicted to post one of the top records in MLB, with FanGraphs projecting another season with over 100 wins. The Phillies are basically the Nationals 2.0 at this point. With Harper, Turner, and Kyle Schwarber powering their offense, and Zack Wheeler pitching alongside a loaded staff, the Phillies are a strong team who will make a push for a Wild Card spot (the Braves should easily clinch the division title). 

The Nationals are most definitely not focused on the playoff picture this year, but just hitting the 80 win mark alongside strong performances from their young players would be a success enough during the better stages of the rebuilding process.

Categories: 2024 Season Preview, Articles, Season Analysis

Tags: 2024 Season Preview, Washington Nationals