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2023 Record: 88-74 (.543 win%, 3rd in Division)

2024 Payroll: $124,158,333 (18^th)

2024 Projected Lineup:

1. SS J.P. Crawford, .257 AVG/.351 OBP/.385 SLG, 3.3 fWAR

2. CF Julio Rodríguez, .278 AVG/.341 OBP/.500 SLG, 5.5 fWAR

3. 2B Jorge Polanco, .244 AVG/.321 OBP/.421 SLG, 2.4 fWAR

4. DH Mitch Garver, .234 AVG/.328 OBP/.430 SLG, 1.6 fWAR

5. C Cal Raleigh, .231 AVG/.302 OBP/.459 SLG, 3.5 fWAR

6. 1B Ty France, .267 AVG/.342 OBP/.412 SLG, 2.1 fWAR

7. LF Luke Raley, .232 AVG/.315 OBP/.413 SLG, 1.2 fWAR

8. RF Mitch Haniger, .233 AVG/.302 OBP/.420 SLG, 1.0 fWAR

9. 3B Josh Rojas, .233 AVG/.307 OBP/.352 SLG, 0.9 fWAR

10. INF Luis Urías, .233 AVG/.327 OBP/.387 SLG, 1.1 fWAR

2024 Projected Starting Rotation:

1. RHP Luis Castillo, 194.0 IP/3.46 ERA/1.16 WHIP, 3.8 fWAR

2. RHP Logan Gilbert, 190.0 IP/3.69 ERA/1.18 WHIP, 3.0 fWAR

3. RHP George Kirby, 191.0 IP/3.56 ERA/1.12 WHIP, 3.7 fWAR

4. RHP Bryce Miller, 139.0 IP/4.10 ERA/1.22 WHIP, 1.6 fWAR

5. RHP Bryan Woo, 128.0 IP/4.07 ERA/1.21 WHIP, 1.5 fWAR

2024 Projected Top 4 Relievers:

1. RHP Andrés Muñoz, 64.0 IP/2.90 ERA/1.09 WHIP, 1.5 fWAR

2. RHP Gregory Santos, 63.0 IP/3.46 ERA/1.21 WHIP, 0.8 fWAR

3. RHP Matt Brash, 53.0 IP/3.29 ERA/1.24 WHIP, 0.3 fWAR

4. LHP Gabe Speier, 63.0 IP/3.57 ERA/1.17 WHIP, 0.5 fWAR

What Baseball Means to Seattle?

The Seattle Mariners, founded in 1977, are one of five MLB clubs to never win the World Series. Their division counterpart, the Texas Rangers, were finally able to remove themselves from that list just this past year. Additionally, the Mariners are the only franchise without a pennant win. For an organization that has been graced by the likes of some of the game’s best players since its onset, never making it to the league’s ultimate series seems almost improbable. Though there has always been a draw to the ballpark and often a player worth attending for, Mariners fans are absolutely deserving of a ring.

Many recent negative headlines have come from the higher-ups in the organization, who have made some questionable statements surrounding the issues the organization presents. Jerry Dipoto made a comment about trying to win just 54 percent of the time as a goal following the end of the 2023 season, and former president Kevin Mather once admitted to service manipulation and celebrating being cheap overall. In short, there doesn’t seem to be a clear win-now mentality which is common among many of the other competitors in baseball.

That being said, the current team has a great young core, and it is clear the fans are invested. The 2023 All-Star Game was held at T-Mobile Park, and great support was shown for hometown honorees Julio Rodríguez, Luis Castillo, and George Kirby. Hopefully, a World Series or deep playoff run is on the way for Seattle.

2023-24 Offseason Recap:

Retooling was the name of the game for the Mariners this offseason, especially when it came to hitting. The team was largely active in the trade market throughout the offseason, so expect to see some new faces in 2024. In general, the strategy was pointed towards moving away from strikeout-heavy players while also cutting costs. Ultimately, the Mariners are likely trying to ensure that they can pay Kirby and Gilbert while hopefully also bringing in some free agent talent a year from now.

The Mariners first major move of the offseason was trading power-hitting third baseman Eugenio Suárez to the Arizona Diamondbacks for relief pitcher Carlos Vargas and catcher Seby Zavala. This move was surprising at the time, as Suárez had a relatively average season hitting-wise, pushing across a 101 OPS+. He was one of the true mainstays of the lineup, completing the 162-game Iron Man challenge, and seeing as his replacement options are Luis Urías and Josh Rojas, this deal might end up doing more hurt than help.

Not long after, Seattle broke another trade, this time sending outfielder Jarred Kelenic, starting pitcher Marco Gonzales, and first baseman Evan White to the Atlanta Braves for young starter Jackson Kowar and pitching prospect Cole Phillips. The Mariners giving up on Kelenic is certainly disappointing given the great potential he had coming up through the system, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Braves find a way to turn him into a much better player. Trading away Gonzales was not much of a surprise, as he hasn’t seen much success since the shortened season and his contract was worth cutting from a financial standpoint. The disappointing side of this deal is that both of the players the Mariners acquired are already slated to need Tommy John surgery, so this Dipoto move is already off to a poor start.

The next big cost-cutting move was moving on from Robbie Ray, who was traded to the San Francisco Giants for Anthony DeSclafani and returning Mariner outfielder Mitch Haniger. It’s clear that the Mariners have a deep rotation, but it was disheartening to see them move on from a player who was their big signing after his 2021 Cy Young campaign. However, I like the return for this trade. Haniger is an underrated offensive asset, and I think that fans will be pleasantly surprised by a bounce-back performance in 2024. 

Additionally, DeSclafani was flipped alongside reliever Justin Topa, prospect outfielder Gabriel Gonzalez, and pitcher Darren Bowen for second baseman Jorge Polanco, who was the longest tenured Twin prior to the move. Second base has been a turnstile for the Mariners the past few seasons, as players like Adam Frazier and Kolten Wong have stopped by and struggled. These woes are hopefully slated to go away now with Polanco locking down the middle infield with J.P. Crawford.

Other notable trades for the Mariners included a one-for-one swap with the Tampa Bay Rays, where infielder José Caballero was dealt in exchange for 1B/OF Luke Raley. On the surface, this looks like strong move that capitalized on the Rays’ need at shortstop, but since it’s Tampa, we can’t be too sure.

The Mariners also acquired bullpen arm Gregory Santos from the Chicago White Sox in exchange for pitcher Prelander Berroa, outfielder Zach DeLoach, and a second round pick in the upcoming draft. Santos posted a strong 3.39 ERA through 66.1 innings with the White Sox in 2023, and at 24 years old, this could be prove to be a good pick-up for the bullpen.

The Mariners definitely refrained from opening up the checkbook once again this offseason, but they did manage to pick up a couple of pieces. Catcher Mitch Garver signed a two-year, $24 million deal, and will likely serve as the primary designated hitter while swapping catching duties with Cal Raleigh. In addition, flame-throwing reliever Ryne Stanek came over from Houston on a one-year, $4 million contract. Stanek is a veteran reliever with a strong track record, and it seems like the Mariners negotiated a solid deal with a player who could prove integral to their success.

The only significant offseason loss from free agency was left fielder Teoscar Hernández, who was part of the team’s high-strikeout cleansing. Hernández became a piece of the Dodgers’ monster offseason, signing a one-year, $23.5 million deal with the league’s financial powerhouse. The Mariners were almost certainly unwilling to pay that amount of money to keep him around, and it resulted in him ending up in LA.

2024 Regular Season Preview:

Around half of the Opening Day lineup for the Mariners in 2024 will be different from what it was a year ago, so the front office can at least be credited for not staying put after missing the playoffs in ’23. The big new additions are Jorge Polanco and Mitch Garver, who will hopefully be contributing players all season long. Hopefully, they work well to complement the team’s core players and become key pieces to a playoff run.

While the prospect of all these new hitters is captivating, I am concerned that all of these moves were somewhat lateral. No player Seattle acquired was a superstar by any means, and it seems that for each hole it plugged, another opened up. The second base problem was fixed, but now third base is a daily question. While the approach of the team may be different, I fear that they may run into the same results.

Many pieces of the puzzle would have to fall into place in order for this Mariners lineup to have success. Firstly, they are heavily reliant upon bounce-back years from the likes of Ty France, Mitch Haniger, and either Luis Urías or Josh Rojas, and I am just not convinced that these players will be able to see steep inclines in success. Secondly, expecting another dazzling season from J.P. Crawford is probably too much to ask for, and it is likely that he comes back down to Earth a little in 2024. Some of the weight of the offense needs to be transferred away from him if they hope to produce runs.

On the other hand, pitching will definitely be the strength of the Mariners, and it projects to be one of the top staffs in all of baseball. The top of the starting rotation has high expectations, and if some of the younger arms like Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo can perform well, this could be one of the best all-around pitching teams in baseball. Their top three starters all have paths to Cy Young contention as well, so I just can’t imagine opposing hitters will be particularly excited for a series against Seattle.

Likewise, the bullpen is promising, highlighted by Andrés Muñoz, Matt Brash (currently injured, however), and new additions Ryne Stanek and Gregory Santos. Brash’s slider has been labeled as one of if not the nastiest pitches in all of the MLB, so expect him to contribute greatly to what should be a consistent and reliable pen in 2024.

Player to Watch #1: CF Julio Rodríguez

If you like baseball, then you like watching Julio Rodríguez. In just two years, J-Rod has become everything the Mariners hoped for and more, finishing fourth in MVP voting this past year after placing seventh in the award and winning AL Rookie of the Year in 2022. If his performance continues to trend upward, Rodríguez should win an MVP in the near future. The 23-year-old center fielder excels in every aspect of baseball as a strong defender and two time Silver Slugger, while being the face of the Seattle Mariners franchise.

Player to Watch #2: SP Bryan Woo

There has been a lot of excitement around Bryan Woo, a player selected in the sixth round of the 2021 draft. Woo rose quickly through the minor leagues and is slated for a spot in the Seattle rotation in 2024. He has a five-pitch mix, using his four-seamer the most, which compiled a 30% whiff rate in 2023. Add this to his sinker with great off-speed options to play off of it, and it’s clear that Woo has all of the tools to be successful. Hopefully, his promising 2023 rookie season turns into an even better ’24.

Player to Watch #3: 1B Ty France

Ty France took a big step back in 2023. Before this past season, he consistently posted an OPS+ north of 120, but he finished as a below-average hitter by this measure in ’23. A substantial amount of the Mariners’ offensive production needs to come from him, so a return to form would be vital. If not, the Mariners may begin to look for options to gain more production out of first base.

Position Group to Watch: Playoff Rotation

Luis Castillo, George Kirby, and Logan Gilbert comprise a formidable playoff rotation, with each being proven and dominant at times. They could all be considered Cy Young contenders, especially Kirby and Castillo. Though amazing assets to have through the regular season, come playoff time, these will be the guys that have to step up in order for the team to do anything special. 

2024 Record Prediction: 87-75

The Mariners’ record declining between 2023 and 2024 doesn’t necessarily mean that I think that they got worse this offseason. Though you could make the case, I do believe that the offense is improved with the additions of Jorge Polanco and Mitch Garver. The issue for me is the level of competition that they will have to continually face. The American League is stacked with talented teams, and the West has some of the most competitive opponents. Without any big free agent signings, the Mariners don’t have very many game-changers to lean on in the big moments. It feels like most of the roster is comprised of solid MLB players, with the occasional superstar (Rodríguez and Castillo). 

That being said, I do not think that the Mariners are going to miss the playoffs. They could jump one or both of the Tampa Bay Rays and Toronto Blue Jays, which would be enough to earn them a Wild Card spot. Plus, they are very much still in division contention. So far in the expanded playoff format, a six seed has made the World Series each year, and that team could potentially be the Mariners in 2024.

Categories: 2024 Season Preview, Articles, Season Analysis

Tags: 2024 Season Preview, Seattle Mariners