On January 28th, the Detroit Tigers signed 22-year-old infielder Colt Keith to a six-year extension in which he will receive just over $28 million guaranteed. Keith, the no. 2-ranked prospect in the Tigers’ system who is no. 22 overall according to MLB Pipeline, is also up for club options for an extra three years in the deal. When all set and done, it’s possible for the Tigers’ future third baseman to receive $82 million over the course of nine years — a small price to pay if Keith reaches his full potential.
Since MLB contracts were banned for draft-pick signees over a decade ago, there had only been six extensions signed across the league before a player’s major league debut. Keith, the seventh such occurrence, is yet another marker of a new era for MLB extensions.
Over the past five years, there has been an influx of extensions signed by players who have either yet to play a major league game or appeared in less than a season’s worth of play. The trendsetter in this category has been the Atlanta Braves who have been consistently looking to extend their best young stars since Alex Anthopoulos took over as GM in 2017.
The first big move, and one which has paid off tenfold thus far, was extending Ronald Acuña Jr. in April of 2019 at the beginning of his age-21 season to an eight-year, $100 million deal. The contract will certainly mature to 10 years, $134 million when his option is exercised in 2027 and 2028. For one of the game’s best young stars who just earned his first career MVP award, this is a bargain of a deal for Anthopoulos and company.
A few years later in the closing months of the 2022 season, the Braves extended rookies Michael Harris II and Spencer Strider two months apart from one another.
Harris, who would go on to win Rookie of the Year just as Acuña did the year he signed his extension, had played just over a season’s worth of minor league ball and appeared in 71 major league games in his professional career at the time of the deal. The Braves have Harris locked up for at least eight years on $72 million with the possibility of 10 for $102 million.
Flamethrowing right-handed starter Spencer Strider had a little more time under his belt (134 innings pitched) when he signed a six-year, $75 million deal with a $22 million option for the 2029 season. The extension immediately followed the closure of a ‘22 season which saw Strider post a staggering 13.8 K/9 and finish in second place in Rookie of the Year voting.
There is something to be said about Atlanta’s farm system and developmental team for them to have the first- and second-place finishers in the 2022 NL Rookie of the Year race, but even more so to lock up the two young talents for nearly the remainder of the decade. There is a clear philosophy that the risk of young age pales in comparison to paying pennies to some of the league’s best players over substantial time periods.
In addition to Acuña, Harris, and Strider, the Braves have also signed All-Star infielders Ozzie Albies (maximum of nine years, $45 million) and Austin Riley (maximum of 11 years, $232 million) to significant extensions. Albies, a three-time All-Star and the league’s most consistent producer at second base, has been paid relative change for his services and will likely be locked up through the 2027 season.
So, Atlanta has tricked the system in a manner of speaking. Their strong belief in player development and ability to pitch their long-term value to young, budding stars has allowed them to craft a dynasty which will likely last for years to come.
The question we are all wondering, then, is if it works for the Braves, shouldn’t it work for everyone else, too?
The short answer is no. The slightly longer answer is that not everyone, if anyone, develops players like the Braves do. It seems that each year, another Atlanta player is sitting at or near the top of the betting odds favorites for Rookie of the Year. Even when this isn’t the case, like in 2023, the Braves have a young player emerge after a solid rookie season.
Take Bryce Elder, a righty arm who had only thrown 51 innings in his rookie 2022 campaign. In nearly 175 innings in ‘23, Elder showed consistency, posting a 3.81 ERA and setting himself up for future success.
Beyond just player development, though, there needs to be a bit of luck involved with these early extensions. Oftentimes, it may just come down to the mindset a player has. Long-term deals can put loads of pressure on a young athlete to be the face of a franchise, or, conversely, a player may become complacent now that they are financially secure for the next decade.
No matter the case, there is a fair amount of risk a team must take on when signing a player with little-to-no major league experience to an extension. As an example, let’s look at the Tampa Bay Rays, a low-budget organization which has consistently made deals which fit this category.
Evan Longoria, Matt Moore, Chris Archer, Brandon Lowe, and Wander Franco are all players who were extended by the Rays with less than a full season’s worth of MLB play behind them.
It’s safe to say Longo’s six-year, $17.5 million deal was a success, as he earned a Rookie of the Year award, three All-Star bids, two Gold Gloves, and led the team to an AL Pennant over the course of the extension. Though not as significant as the impact of face-of-the-franchise Evan Longoria, Archer (six years, $25.5 million) and Lowe (six years, $24 million) each performed well during their extensions (Lowe still has one year remaining in his deal).
However, after two strong sub-4.00 ERA seasons at the onset of his five-year, $14 million extension, Matt Moore suffered a season-ending injury in his third season and had to receive Tommy John surgery. The left-handed starter was never the same and didn’t find sustained success until transitioning to a relief role eight years later in 2022 with the Texas Rangers.
Injuries are nearly impossible to predict and rarely ever a factor when considering whether to sign a young player to an extension but even more unpredictable and painful for an organization is a case like that of Wander Franco.
Franco, one of the most coveted prospects in recent memory, couldn’t have started his career at a much better clip. In his 2021 freshman campaign, the Rays 20-year-old shortstop put together an impressive 43-game on-base streak, posted a 127 OPS+, and finished third in the Rookie of the Year race. He was quickly extended to the largest deal in MLB history for a player with less than a season of MLB service time — 11 years for $182 million.
Franco continued performing with consistency as a switch hitter, baserunner, and defensive asset over the course of the next two seasons, becoming one of the league’s next big stars. However, as of today, the shortstop’s career hangs in the balance after allegations came to light regarding his having been in an inappropriate relationship with a minor.
Though his case has yet to be resolved, Franco’s situation is yet another example of the risk which comes with signing an extension so early in a player’s career. You simply don’t know what could happen.
So, it’s apparent that if you sign enough of these early extensions, you’ll get your share of good and your share of bad. How does that risk change, though, like in the case of the Tigers, when a player has yet to step foot on a major league field? In order to analyze the Colt Keith deal, let’s take a look at the other six players who were extended on zero days of MLB service time.
The first player to be signed to an extension before breaking into the league was Jon Singleton of the Astros. While the deal signed in 2014 was only five years for $10 million and didn’t present significant risk, there is no doubt that Houston missed on this one. In his 114 games with Houston during the course of the extension, Singleton hit a poor .165 with only 14 home runs despite power being the first baseman’s calling card.
The next case doesn’t prove to be much better: Scott Kingery’s six-year, $24 million deal with the Phillies in 2018. This was yet another failed extension, with Kingery compiling only 0.5 WAR and posting a career 74 OPS+ over the course of his contract which finally came to end at the conclusion of the 2023 season.
During the 2019-20 offseason, the Mariners signed first baseman Evan White to a six-year, $24 million extension. You could make an argument that the deal was derailed by the Covid-19 pandemic, but White’s poor production (.165/.235/.308 slash line) over the course of the next two seasons wasn’t enough to secure himself a job in 2022. He has played solely in the minors since and enters the fifth year of his deal as a member of the Atlanta Braves following a trade this offseason. Maybe the Braves proven player development system can work some magic on White.
The next two cases, White Sox outfielders Eloy Jiménez (six years, $43 million) and Luis Robert Jr. (six years, $50 million), have been more successful than the previous three examples but with a share of their own ups and downs. When on the field, Jiménez and Robert are excellent, each posting strong career OPS+ figures of 118 and 124, respectively. Each has also secured a Silver Slugger award and a 30-home run season.
However, the careers of the outfielders have been largely marred by injuries. Jiménez has yet to record a full season of play, and Robert finally put together one of his own in 2023. Robert, a more versatile talent than Jiménez, does appear to have the opportunity to become one of the league’s top stars, but he only has two years remaining on his extension to prove himself.
Keith’s extension was not the first of these cases this offseason, as the Brewers are in agreement with 19-year-old stud outfielder Jackson Chourio. The deal guarantees the young Venezuelan $82 million over eight years with the possibility of earning over $140 million. Chourio’s extension proves to be one of the most risky yet given his age and lack of experience.
So, what does recent history indicate for Colt Keith and the Detroit Tigers?
When it comes to the prospects who have been extended before reaching baseball’s highest level, the results thus far aren’t particularly promising. Nonetheless, the sample size is small and the Robert and Chourio deals may just turn out to be great moves by their respective organizations.
To me, it truly comes down to the talent of the player, the situation they find themselves in, and a tinge of luck. Keith is a smooth-swinging, power-hitting third baseman with the ability to play second base. However, given the plus arm he flaunts and the poor footwork he possesses at this point in time, it appears Keith will profile at the hot corner.
From a talent standpoint, Keith offers a really strong hit tool, with a flat swing from the left side which allows his bat to remain in the hitting zone for an increased period of time. He does tend to cast his hands, but this is acceptable considering his bat path and ability to make contact despite lacking high-level timing mechanisms.
In terms of power, Keith’s 6’3”, 230-lb. frame profiles well, and the 27 bombs he hit across AA and AAA last season could definitely translate to the big league stage. He didn’t experience a serious decline in performance when he moved up a level midseason which is also a promising sign.
For his size, Keith is actually a solid runner but is far from being a bag steeler. With the increase in stolen bases seen across the league in ‘23, though, he may be able to swipe 10 bags. Defensively, Keith struggles with his glove while sporting a plus arm. A former pitcher, there is no doubt his talents are suited for third base.
From a situation standpoint, the Tigers are in need of an everyday third baseman, so there won’t be a lack of opportunities for the 22-year-old. There is no doubt in my mind, after the signing of the extension, that Keith will be in the Tigers’ opening day lineup. If he can improve his footwork and hands at third, we could consistently see Keith at the hot corner in Detroit for years to come. If needed, though, he could always be an option at DH or even at first base down the road.
Regarding the contract itself, there isn’t an extremely large risk being taken by the Tigers. Six years for a guaranteed $28 million is a steal if Keith plays well, while not an organization-ruining investment if he doesn’t pan out. Given the three-year team option as an additive to be exercised if Keith is playing at a high level, the extension seems to be a low-risk, high-reward investment — exactly the type of move a GM on a mid-budget team looks to make.
There seems to be some promise for Tigers fans regarding this extension, but it will all come down to the final component. There will need to be some luck involved, and hopefully, for the sake of deprived Tigers fans, Keith can produce at a high level for the next nine years in the Motor City.
Categories: Articles, MLB Player Profiles
M-SABR 
Leave a comment