Check out my 2023 Season Preview Article for the New York Mets here.
Image: John Jones/USA TODAY Sports
2023 Record: 75-87 (.463 win%, 4th in Division)
2023 Payroll: $343,605,067 (1st)
2023 Lineup:
1. CF Brandon Nimmo (L), .274 AVG/.363 OBP/.466 SLG, 4.3 fWAR
2. 2B Jeff McNeil (L), .270 AVG/.333 OBP/.378 SLG, 2.6 fWAR
3. SS Francisco Lindor (S), .254 AVG/.336 OBP/.470 SLG, 6.0 fWAR
4. 1B Pete Alonso (R), .217 AVG/.318 OBP/.504 SLG, 2.8 fWAR
5. RF Starling Marte (R), .248 AVG/.301 OBP/.324 SLG, -0.3 fWAR
6. 3B Brett Baty (L), .212 AVG/.275 OBP/.323 SLG, -0.5 fWAR
7. C Francisco Álvarez (R), .209 AVG/.284 OBP/.437 SLG, 2.7 fWAR
8. LF Mark Canha (R), .262 AVG/.355 OBP/.400 SLG, 1.6 fWAR
9. DH Daniel Vogelbach (L), .233 AVG/.339 OBP/.404 SLG, 0.1 fWAR
Util. – Mark Vientos (R), .211 AVG/.253 OBP/.367 SLG, -0.9 fWAR
2023 Rotation:
1. RHP Kodai Senga, 166.1 IP/2.98 ERA/1.22 WHIP, 3.4 fWAR
2. RHP Tylor Megill, 126.1 IP/4.70 ERA/1.58 WHIP, 0.6 fWAR
3. LHP David Peterson, 111.0 IP/5.03 ERA/1.57 WHIP, 1.0 fWAR
4. RHP Carlos Carrasco, 90.0 IP/6.80 ERA/1.70 WHIP, -0.3 fWAR
5. RHP Max Scherzer, 152.2 IP/3.77 ERA/1.12 WHIP, 2.2 fWAR
2023 Top 4 Relievers:
1. RHP Adam Ottavino, 61.2 IP/3.21 ERA/1.22 WHIP, -0.1 fWAR
2. RHP Drew Smith, 56.1 IP/4.15 ERA/1.4 WHIP, 0.1 fWAR
3. LHP Brooks Raley, 54.2 IP/2.80 ERA/1.26 WHIP, 0.6 fWAR
4. RHP David Robertson, 65.1 IP/3.03 ERA/1.19 WHIP, 1.2 fWAR
Regular Season Recap:
After winning 101 games in 2022 and having the highest payroll in the league, expectations for the New York Mets were incredibly high. In the preseason, the Mets were favored to win the NL East and were tied for fourth in odds to win it all (NBC Sports Chicago).
Fans definitely expected the Mets to make the playoffs and put together a run at the World Series, and of course, since it’s New York, there’s always a “go big or go home” mindset. So, even though these goals may not sound realistic, the expectation in New York is to win it all and nothing less.
But after all, it is the New York Mets. Anything that can go wrong will go wrong.
Before the season even started, closer Edwin Díaz suffered a knee injury during a celebration with his teammates in the World Baseball Classic after finishing the game for Puerto Rico to beat the Dominican Republic. He underwent surgery in mid-March and did not play a single game in 2023.
Right away, the Mets had a huge gap to fill in their bullpen. Replacing a guy who threw 62 innings with 32 saves and 118 strikeouts the previous year is not easy. Without Díaz, the Mets bullpen was significantly weaker and set up for failure. Mets relievers ranked 29th in WAR, 22nd in ERA, 24th in FIP, and 24th in HR/9 in 2023.
In addition to Díaz’s injury, Justin Verlander was on the injured list before Opening Day due to shoulder discomfort and missed the whole first month of the season. Once returned, Verlander was solid, posting a 6-5 record over 16 starts with a 3.16 ERA — in opposition to 1.75 in his 2022 Cy Young campaign. Having dished out $40M AAV in the offseason, the Mets expected more of Verlander, but his age and injuries were clearly taking a toll.
Max Scherzer also struggled on the mound for the Mets, posting a 4.01 ERA with a 9-4 record. Similarly to Verlander, it appears Scherzer’s injuries and age are beginning to catch up to him. His contract, a staggering $43M per year, necessitated better production from the veteran arm.
When it was announced that the Mets would have both Verlander and Scherzer, fans were excited to see two of the most dominant pitchers in recent history back in the same rotation again. The hope was for the two future Hall of Famers to carry the Mets to the postseason.
However, at second glance, you could see how investing this much money and hope in arms with significant innings under their belts was not a smart choice. Verlander had just won the Cy Young but is 40 years old, while Scherzer is 38 and coming off a poor performance in the Mets 2022 Wild Card series loss to the Padres.
So what did the Mets truly expect? Throwing over 80 million dollars at two guys who are clearly past their prime was a horrible decision, and it shows that only spending big money is not a solution to winning. It seems like the Mets were clinging onto the big names of Verlander and Scherzer but failed to acknowledge their true value. The $80M+ could have been better spent to generate a more balanced roster, yet it was wasted on the two high-profile vets.
With injuries and underperformance hindering both Scherzer and Verlander, it was clear the Mets should move on, so they were each traded away. The Mets dealt Scherzer (with cash considerations) to the Texas Rangers in exchange for prospect shortstop Luisangel Acuña who is now the no. 1-ranked Mets prospect.
For the Verlander (with cash considerations) trade to the Houston Astros, the Mets received prospect outfielders Drew Gilbert — who was the Astros no. 1 prospect — and Ryan Clifford — the Astros no. 4 prospect at the time. So, the Mets cleaned up here by moving out the unproductive older pitchers and invested in their future with these promising prospects.
Without Scherzer and Verlander down the stretch, other pitchers in the rotation had to step up. Nonetheless, this Mets rotation lacked the talent and star power necessary to find consistency. Everyone but rookie Kodai Senga struggled on the rubber. What was once key to New York Mets success, the pitching rotation has become a clear weakness for this ball club.
On offense, a similar theme persisted: expectations were high, but performance fell short. With a lineup of players like Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil, Brandon Nimmo, Starling Marte, and more, this offense was promising and attractive. Yet by season’s end, the Mets underperformed, ranking 25th overall in AVG, 20th in OBP, 18th in SLG, 18th in OPS, and 20th in runs scored.
One of the only offensive players who saw success was Lindor, posting a .254/.336/.470 slash line with 31 homers, 98 RBI, and 31 stolen bases. The Mets shortstop finished 9th in MVP voting, won a Silver Slugger award, and had a 30-30 season, but this success seemed to fly under the radar because of the absolute failure of the team as a whole. Nimmo put together a solid season as well, posting a .274/.363/.466 line.
For the rest of the players, it is difficult to fin many highlights or noteworthy increases in production. McNeil, coming off an All-Star season when he earned a batting title, fell from a 141 to 100 wRC+ between 2022 and 2023. Marte and Alonso saw similar declines in production, falling from 134 to 76 wRC+ and 141 to 121 wRC+, respectively. There were significant offensive fall-offs across the board.
With such poor statistical output, many question whether the Mets have wasted their money. To invest so much into a roster and fall off this hard from last season, the 2023 campaign was clearly a complete failure for the Mets. It is unbelievable for a team which spent hundreds of millions of dollars to not play a single game in October.
M-SABR Predicted Record (97-65 – 1st in NL East) vs. Actual (75-87 – 4th in NL East):
In the season preview, I was very optimistic about the Mets and bought into the hype of the Scherzer and Verlander signings. I thought both would pitch at an elite level as they have in the past but ignored the clear signs of regression due to injuries and old age.
I also had belief in the Mets offense and assumed that their production would remain similar to 2022, when they ranked 2nd in AVG, 2nd in OBP, and 8th in SLG. It was difficult to see a world where their production would fall so drastically, but it did, with the Mets ranking 25th overall in AVG, 20th in OBP, and 18th in SLG.
Looking back, predicting the Mets would win 97 games was a reach. However, no one could have expected a drop of 26 games from 101 to 75 wins between 2022 and 2023. Many could have speculated a clear struggle with the absence of Díaz from the bullpen, but very few would have predicted the Mets to win just 75 games after adding Verlander and Scherzer and taking the previous year’s offensive production into account.
Surprise of the Season: RHP Kodai Senga
With the Scherzer and Verlander experiment failing and the rest of the staff struggling to put the Mets in a position to win ball games, starter Kodai Senga was the one highlight of the Mets pitching arsenal.
The Mets signed Senga in December of 2022 for $75M over 5 years. At the time of the signing, Senga was 29 years old. He pitched for the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks in Japan, winning over 100 games through 11 seasons. Scouts were impressed with his fastball and famous “ghost fork” pitch. Senga was considered one of Japan’s best pitchers upon his departure.
He was expected to be a piece that would complement the aces of Scherzer and Verlander, and no one really expected more out of his rookie season. However, with the failure of both Scherzer and Verlander, Senga was challenged to step up and lead this pitching staff, and he rose to the challenge.
In his rookie season, Senga finished the year winning 12 games with a 2.98 ERA, 3.63 FIP, 1.22 WHIP, and 3.4 fWAR. The Mets righty was an All-Star, finishing 7th in NL Cy Young and 2nd in Rookie of the Year voting. Per Baseball Savant, Senga ranks in the 99th percentile for pitching and fastball run value and 98th percentile for off-speed run value.
The 2023 regular season was impressive for Senga, and his future looks bright to continue dominating on the mound for the New York Mets.
Players We Watched:
Player We Watched #1: SS Francisco Lindor
Lindor was simply great offensively, posting his first 30-30 season. Per Baseball Savant, Lindor ranked in the 77th percentile for batting run value. Though only producing a .254 AVG, Lindor provided some pop to the Mets lineup with 30 home runs. Being paid around $34M per year, though, you might expect his average to be much higher. The Mets shortstop also finished 9th in MVP voting, and won a Silver Slugger Award.
Defensively, Lindor was elite, as he has proven to be throughout his career, finishing in the 90th percentile for Outs Above Average (Baseball Savant). Lindor’s 2023 season was a success but proved futile due to the overall disaster which was the team’s performance.
Player We Watched #2: 3B Brett Baty
The Mets have been in search of stability at the third base position for some time, and this year Mets fans hoped Brett Baty would be the solution.
Eduardo Escobar began the season poorly, giving Baty the opportunity to be called up to play in the big leagues. In the 2023 season, Baty played 108 games and posted a .212/.275/.323 slash line with 9 HRs and 34 RBI. This was a disappointing and unimpressive season, but considering Baty has only played 119 games in his two years in the big leagues, he needs more time to prove himself.
Baty’s batting run value ranked 4th percentile and his base-running value was in the 40th percentile. Defensively, Baty’s performance was less than ideal, ranking in the 15th percentile in Outs Above Average (per Baseball Savant).
Player We Watched #3: DH Daniel Vogelbach
Many fans thought that the increase in base size and implementation of the pitch clock would be an opportunity for Daniel Vogelbach to record his first stolen base in the MLB, but sadly he was unable to swipe a single bag.
Vogelbach’s role for this lineup was to provide some power and drive in runs, but he was unsuccessful in doing so, only hitting 13 home runs and recording 48 RBI.
The Mets desperately need more power in their lineup and ideally a bat that can produce great numbers across the board; expect them to target a DH in free agency.
Offseason Outlook:
The Mets struck out on big free agents like Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but maybe failing to land the biggest names can be a blessing in disguise for this ball club. Since Steve Cohen has become owner of the Mets, the philosophy of this ball club has been to throw big money at players and hoping they pan out and produce at elite levels.
Yet, this method has not been successful or effective as seen with Scherzer and Verlander this past season. The Mets must realize that money doesn’t necessarily translate to winning ball games and that constructing a balanced roster and a well-rounded team are of greater importance.
Missing out on these huge signings may give the Mets an opportunity to allocate this money to address different needs throughout the organization. Instead of blowing hundreds of millions of dollars on stars, the Mets can now focus on making smaller moves.
So far the Mets have signed OF Harrison Bader (1 year, $10.5M), RHP Luis Severino (1 year, $13M), RHP Jorge López (1 year, $2M), IF Joey Wendle (1 year, $2M), RHP Michael Tonkin (1 year, $1M), and RHP Austin Adams (1 year, split contract). These relatively smaller signings may prove to be more beneficial to the ball club, adding depth to the roster rather than investing large sums of money on few players.
The Mets still desperately need pitching both in the way of the starting rotation and the bullpen. By trade, potential pitchers that seem attractive include Marlins lefty Jesus Luzardo or White Sox righty Dylan Cease. Additionally, Omar Narváez is a player who may be on the trade block, as Francisco Álvarez has become the starting catcher for the organization.
David Stearns, the new GM for the New York Mets, has been making smart moves to fix this roster this offseason, and his work seems promising to get the Mets back on track to postseason baseball. If he is able to fix the starting rotation and bullpen, he will be the savior of this organization.
Nonetheless, the Mets are in a strange position: is it time to rebuild or should the Mets stick it out with their core players and try to win? Looking at the trades of Scherzer and Verlander for prospects, it seems like the Mets are moreso focused on the future. However, the team’s core players are definitely talented enough to return this team to October baseball.
What to Pay Attention to in the Future: Casino Next to Citi Field?
Steve Cohen is in the process of attaining a license for an $8 billion casino which he plans to build in the parking lots adjacent to Citi Field. In the proposal, there is a Hard Rock Hotel, live music venues, space for public parks, and food courts.
So in the near future, after going to a ball game at Citi Field, fans can enjoy time in the parks, stay at the hotel, and spend time in the casino.
However, is having a casino next to a sports stadium the best decision? With the MLB strict attitude on and regulation of gambling (i.e. Pete Rose), how might the league respond to this new establishment?
All questions to be answered in the future.
Categories: 2023 Season Review, Articles, Season Analysis
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