Check out my 2022 Season Preview Article for the Blue Jays here.
Image: Christopher Katsarov / CP
2022 Record: 92-70 (.568 win%, 2nd in AL East)
2022 Payroll: $188,895,270 (11th)
2022 Lineup:
1. C – Alejandro Kirk, .285 AVG/.372 OBP/.415 SLG, 3.8 fWAR
2. 1B – Vladimir Guerrero, .274 AVG/.339 OBP/.480 SLG, 2.8 fWAR
3. 2B – Santiago Espinal, .267 AVG/.322 OBP/.370 SLG, 2.3 fWAR
4. 3B – Matt Chapman, .229 AVG/.324 OBP/.433 SLG, 4.1 fWAR
5. SS – Bo Bichette, . 290/.333 OBP/.469 SLG, 4.5 fWAR
6. LF – Lourdes Gurriel, .291 AVG/.343 OBP/.400 SLG, 1.0 fWAR
7. CF – Bradley Zimmer , .124 AVG/.207 OBP/.229 SLG, -0.2 fWAR
8. RF – Teoscar Hernandez, .267 AVG/.316 OBP/.491 SLG, 2.4 fWAR
9. DH – George Springer, .267 AVG/.342 OBP/.472 SLG, 4.2 fWAR
10. UTL – Cavan Biggio, .202 AVG/.318 OBP/.350 SLG, 0.3 fWAR
2022 Rotation:
1. Alek Manoah, 196.2 IP/2.24 ERA/0.992 WHIP, 4.1 fWAR
2. Kevin Gausman, 174.2 IP/3.35 ERA/1.24 WHIP, 5.7 fWAR
3. José Berríos, 172.0 IP/5.23 ERA/1.42 WHIP, 1.1. fWAR
4. Ross Stripling, 134.1 IP/3.01 ERA/1.02 WHIP, 3.1 fWAR
5. Yusei Kikuchi, 100.2 IP/5.19 ERA/1.50 WHIP, -0.7 fWAR
2022 Top 4 Relievers:
1. Jordan Romano, 64 IP/2.11 ERA/1.02 WHIP, 1.6 fWAR
2. Adam Cimber, 70.2 IP/2.80 ERA/1.12 WHIP, 0.9 fWAR
3. David Phelps, 63.2IP/2.83 ERA/1.30 WHIP, 0.7 fWAR
4. Yimi Garcia, 61 IP/3.10 ERA/1.05 WHIP, 0.9 fWAR
Season Recap:
Blue Jays players slump over the dugout rail in frustration and exhaustion. They are only down by one, but the deficit may as well be double digits. Toronto has blown an 8-1 lead in a game they had to win. They were favored in the series, favored in Game One, and favored again in Game Two. Seattle has looked dominant in the first two games at Rogers Center, and they now have rookie George Kirby strutting to the mound in an attempt to lock down a trip to the ALDS.
But the game is not over. Teoscar Hernandez steps to the plate, looking to begin a rally against the fireballing right hander. Kirby stands just behind the rubber and stares in at Hernandez. He steps up, glove set at his waist. There’s a pause. It seems as though Blue Jays’ fans are just catching up to the state of the game; the Mariners took the lead only minutes ago. But as Kirby steps his left foot out and begins his windup, the ninth inning begins. An 0-0 slider flicks outside for ball one.
Hernandez has led the Jays’ offensive charge today. He’s deposited two balls into left field and been awarded another RBI on a hit by pitch. If anyone is locked-in enough to tie this game on one swing, it’s the first man Kirby must face. A 1-0 sinker darts over the middle third of the plate. No swing from Hernandez, and it’s even at 1-1.
Teoscar Hernandez was among a plethora of Blue Jays hitters that sat between a 110 and a 140 wRC+ this season. The Jays have mashed the ball in the year of our lord 2022 (with a team wRC+ trailing only the historic Dodgers), but their middling defense and pitching hindered them from topping the division. Today encapsulates their season.
Kevin Gausman, an offseason signing who had dominated this year shut the Mariners down early, and Toronto’s star-studded offense has put up crooked numbers, but a bullpen that has been mediocre at the best of times hasn’t been able to quell the Mariners late offensive onslaught, and the Jays’ bats have gone quiet.
Hernandez is retired on a hard ground ball up the middle, and Matt Chapman strolls to the plate.
Chapman was another offseason pickup by Toronto, and offensively he made the jump that could have catapulted him back into best-third-basemen-in-baseball talks, sporting a 117 wRC+. The defense uncharacteristically lagged behind, however, as the 29 year old put up an identical fWAR to the season prior. No matter, though; offense is the only thing standing between a trip home and one more day of Toronto baseball.
Jays fans nervously clutch their free rally towels and await Kirby’s first pitch. 98 mph, up near the letters. Chapman takes a proper hack but fouls it straight back. 0-1. The at bat quickly gets worse after a painted, outside fastball, but that veteran presence Ross Atkins traded for prevails; Chapman takes the next four balls in a row and walks.
The walk doubles the Blue Jays’ win expectancy and brings up catcher Danny Jansen.
Remember how Teoscar was in a group of successful Jays hitters in 2022? Danny Jansen led the pack. A 16th round pick in 2013, Jansen paired up with defensive wizard Alejandro Kirk to create arguably the best catching duo in the MLB this year. He hit to the tune of a 140 wRC+ and amassed an impressive 2.6 WAR in 71 games. Not too shabby for a backup, and a man who was more than capable of tying this game up or possibly ending it.
He strikes out.
And so the season comes down to Raimel Tapia. As he pinches his elbows and wobbles the bat above his helmet, a graphic softly plops down from the Fox score bug. “Toronto led 8-1 entering 6th inning” it reads. How does the saying go? Salt in the wound?
The Rockies pickup looks overmatched on two 97 mph heaters in the upper part of the zone. Fans clasp their hands, praying to whatever the baseball gods are. Patented rally caps are splayed through the crowd. The upside-down, unstitched Jays logos on white caps stick out amongst a sea of blue.
Understandably, Kirby goes right back with a fastball. This one Tapia is ready for, though. In classic Raimel Tapia fashion, he flips a line drive into center. It sails harmlessly into the glove of Mariners superstar Julio Rodriguez.
Heads fall. Hands are unclasped. Caps are punched out back into form. The game is over.
The despair sets in. The reactive anger and sadness is eventually replaced by that empty feeling of wanting but not getting. You know you’ll be here next year, and you know it’s likely to end the same. It’s a feeling unique to sports; a distinctly wasteful feeling that happens to all fans at one time or another. One might describe it as hollow.
To make matters worse, the team has not failed them in the same fashion as game one. No, this was much more painful. The Jays had strung them along, led their fans to believe in the postseason magic that had rejuvenated baseball north of the border in the mid 2010s.
This was a team that had invested in the home grown talents of Vladdy, Bo, and Teoscar, surrounding them with established players like Kevin Gausman and Matt Chapman. And yet, the culmination of this effort was a heap of gray and teal green and strewn gloves on their mound. No fireworks. No air horns. No bat-flips. Just another first round exit.
And while this game may have been interesting, as the lights dimmed and the Mariners exited stage left, an altered version of TS Eliot’s famous poem rang in the ears of those who stayed.
This is the way the season ends.
This is the way the season ends.
This is the way the season ends.
Not with a bang, but with a whimper.
M-SABR Predicted Record (96-65) vs. Actual (92-70):
I wouldn’t call my 161-game season prediction in the season preview the boldest take of the year, but there’s no doubt it’s close. Unfortunately, it didn’t happen. In fairness, it’s only happened 16 times in the expansion era; to call it unlikely would be a bit of an understatement. The number of wins was not terribly off, however; one might even venture to call it accurate.
And while I didn’t expect such a drop in the rotation’s performance (Berrios and Kikuchi particularly surprised me), the overall playstyle was about what I expected. A mash-the-ball-and-hope-the-bullpen-can-hold-it-together approach seemed to work well enough in 2021, and with limited additions to the ‘pen in the offseason it did appear to be their strategy heading into the ‘22 season.
Surprises of the Season:
3B – Matt Chapman
Statistically the answer would have to be Matt Chapman. Given all the grief the front office receives for the Berrios and Kikuchi acquisitions, their preseason trade with Oakland deserves sincere praise. Zach Logue, Kirby Snead, and Kevin Smith struggled in 2022, and Gunnar Hogland continues to be plagued by injuries. Meanwhile, Matt Chapman owned the second highest increase in Statcast-measured hard hit percentage and average exit velocity from ‘21 to ‘22.
His xwOBA rose 20 points to a respectable .341, higher than both ‘17 and ‘18’s numbers. Tell a Jays fan this ten months ago and they would have been ecstatic; offensive numbers like this could put the platinum glover back into MVP consideration. However, almost as surprising as Chapman’s offensive ascension was his decrease in defensive efficacy.
An Outs Above Average of 1 isn’t as bad as it might sound (percentile-wise it lands him solidly above average), but it’s a considerable drop-off from previous years of 15 and 17 in ‘19 and ‘21 respectively. A quick dive into directional OAA tells us he struggled significantly more with balls labeled “in”, indicating that his reaction time and off-balanced throw accuracy may have decreased in the past year.
Chapman’s arm strength has remained strong, which makes sense given his numbers on balls back and to his sides are similar to past years, but also gives me hope that a bit more familiarity with the infield might allow the gold-glover to better play those balls in front of him. Even though he left 2022 with an identical fWAR to 2021, I’d say the different path Matt Chapman took to get there is likely a harbinger of good things to come in 2023 and beyond.
P – Ross Stripling
In a rotation that left much to be desired in 2022, I’m going to focus on one of the couple bright spots: Ross Stripling. Coming off of 6.15 and 5.21 FIP years in 2020 and 2021 respectively, Stripling cut his FIP down to a career low 3.11 and sported an ERA just a tick above 3. He did this by going against the grain.
In a league where fireballers, high spin rates, and strikeouts are king, Stripling avoided walks and let batters put the ball in play. Likely through a combination of batted ball luck and good sequencing, a righty in the 22nd percentile for fastball velo and 18th for spin (none of his other pitches were particularly special, either) landed in the 93rd percentile for chase rate and 98th for walk rate. And while two crimson circles in a sea of light blue statcast percentile rankings might jump out as lucky outliers, they appeared to be enough to carry Stripling to a quality season.
Oddly enough, traditional peripherals don’t hate his season. He ended with a FIP just north of 3 and an xFIP not too far above that. The BABIP was a career low at .269, but it was just one point lower than 2021’s number, and not too far below his career average. I might normally end a player summary here, but in researching Stripling’s season I was admittedly befuddled by how a player with below average Statcast numbers across the board could have produced such a season.
I first went to Cameron Grove’s pitching bot, and was unsurprised to find that Stripling graded relatively poorly on Stuff+, 30 on the 20-80 scale, but high on Command+, at 65. Each secondary pitch graded at a 65 Command+, with the changeup generating the best (least) run value on a rate basis. It had to be more than this.
Pitchers can locate well, but mediocre stuff only gets a man so far. If you’re not fooling batters with Nestor Cortes-esque shenanigans or spinning the hell out of the ball, it’s unlikely that you’ll find sustained success. The conclusion I have reached is unfortunately bland and admittedly not very insightful: he throws a lot of different pitches. Looking at pitch selection in different counts, it’s evident that (aside from when he’s very down in the count), Stripling is willing to throw just about anything.
On 0-0 you’re likely to see a fastball, but outside of that the fastball percentage varies from somewhat likely to unlikely, and every pitch is thrown with relative frequency. I wish there was some sort of sequencing statistic; I feel it would give us slightly better insight as to how he was able to pull off such a feat in 2022. Alas, maybe the mystique is what makes baseball great.
While this season doesn’t appear to indicate Stripling will post another sub 3.50 ERA in ‘23, who knows? If he has already found success on good command and sequencing alone, a small uptick in stuff could be all he needs to become a seriously good pitcher. As a Dodgers fan, I can’t help but be happy for the 2022 season recent departee Ross Stripling put together.
The Angels’ legend may not be as poised for a lucrative contract this offseason as he might hope, but for now I’m glad Chicken Strip got to see the playoffs again. He earned it.
Players We Watched:
C – Gabriel Moreno
Moreno had an odd 2022. Instead of the traditional September-call-up path, the Jays’ top prospect was launched into the show in mid June, following a second IL stint from catcher Danny Jansen. He was then sent back down to the minors when Jansen recovered, and was subsequently called back up to Toronto in early September to finish out the year with the club.
Given the production of both Alejandro Kirk and Jansen, a once easy decision is going to be made difficult for the Blue Jays’ front office. Moreno posted very good offensive numbers for his first time up (113 wRC+ in 25 games), and the defensive tools are promising, but a win-now Toronto doesn’t have much time to waste if Moreno struggles at the onset of ‘23. The Venezuelan’s Triple-A numbers don’t necessarily indicate he should be given the starting job right away, too.
n 62 games Moreno only posted a slugging of .420 and a wRC+ of 120. This is not bad by any means, but it isn’t the dominance that he exhibited in Double-A (albeit in half the amount of games), and it doesn’t give the Jays and reason to give him much playing time over the two catchers that posted higher wRC+’s in the majors in ‘22.
The key to his playing time (and to his success at the plate in general) is developing his power. Three home runs in 62 games at the Triple-A level isn’t going to cut it, but if Moreno can muscle his ISO to or above the .200 mark, I don’t see why he shouldn’t get playing time in the coming season.
P – Nate Pearson
Pearson unfortunately did not throw a single pitch in the 2022 major league season. He did, however, strike out 18 batters in 12.2 innings in Triple-A this year, and he is currently lights out for the Tigres del Licey of the Dominican Winter League. So far, the flamethrower has thrown 9 scoreless innings and struck out 11.
According to some reports, he’s still chucking 100 mph and has possibly added a curveball. Because there isn’t much to say about Pearson with respect to last season, I’ll let you see some of his whiffs for yourself. This is just on fastballs, mostly in the zone. And, for those who don’t know, LIDOM (the Dominican Winter League) is not competition to scoff at. Many players have, do, or will play in the MLB.
I will say that because Pearson hasn’t had a solid sample size of starts since 2019, it is difficult to predict what role he’ll have for the Jays in 2022. Obviously they’ll start him slow, but I can’t imagine them chucking him in the rotation at all in 2023.
Barring some medical miracle and/or a truly desperate need for starting pitching late in the season, I predict he’ll end up as a closer/fireman type role for the majority of ‘23; it’s worked well so far in the Dominican Republic. And, all of this hype and hope obviously hinges on him being able to throw a baseball in 2023. Though he is healthy as of now, Toronto is all too aware of his brittleness.
P – Julian Merryweather
I believe my exact words in the season preview were, “Julian Merryweather will be a top-ten reliever in the league this year. That’s it. That’s my prediction.” I’ll be the first to admit it. I may have been wrong. And while that was an understatement and I was, in fact, extremely wrong, I will present my case as to why it’s not crazy to be bullish on the 31 year old reliever going into 2023. But first, a summary of this season.
Merryweather’s strikeout rate declined and his walk rate remained relatively high, a combination that can only lead to bad things. And while a 4.35 FIP and 4.29 xFIP are both improvements on 2021 and not terrible peripherals in their own right, an opponent wOBA of .355 is nothing to be happy about. So, what went wrong? Why did my pick for the top reliever of the year find himself demoted halfway through the season?
Interestingly, there’s a pretty clear answer: opposing hitters mashed his fastball. And when I say mashed, I mean average exit velocity of 94.3 mph mashed. xSLG of .743, wOBA of .523, BA of .423. I won’t keep going out of courtesy, but you get the idea. I only mention the brutality of these stats because no secondary had an opponent wOBA above .200. The highest exit velocity among his secondary pitches was the slider at 83.5 mph.
While Merryweather threw the fastball just over half the time, these secondary numbers are coming from a solid 202 pitch sample size. The run values of each pitch support this narrative. His fastball had a RV/100 of 5.1, while all of his secondary pitches fell below -1. So, if by some miracle you, dear reader, happen upon Julian Merryweather, please tell him to stop throwing his fastball.
I’m no baseball scientist, but I think throwing the statistically worst pitch in baseball less often could lead to improvement. I just hope he gets the chance next year.
Offseason Outlook:
The Blue Jays have likely reached the end of their spending spree. With big contracts recently handed out to the likes of Gausman, Springer, and Berrios, it’s difficult to imagine them making another splash with their young stars hitting arb and soon free agency.
With the amount of players in arb this year, it’s also tough to see the team spending much before they know what those contracts will look like. That all being said, I’d expect a first round exit to spur the front office to go out and get somebody, even if that somebody isn’t an A or B tier free agent.
The bullpen is undoubtedly in need of some refurbishment. The Jays might attempt to re-sign David Phelps, an average reliever who’s better days are likely behind him. With upcoming options like Nate Pearson and Yosver Zulueta, the 36 year old righty seems unlikely to return. This doesn’t mean there aren’t cheap options out there, however.
31 year old Rafael Montero is an option; an ERA of 2.37 and a K/9 just shy of 10 would be a slightly more pricey but definitely viable option for the front office. Pierce Johnson is another possible target, albeit a riskier one. The Padres righty only threw 14.1 innings in 2022, but continued to strike out the world and kept his FIP and xFIP aligned with previous years’ norms. He’s coming off an impressive 2021 campaign that saw him pitch 58.2 innings to the tune of a 3.31 FIP and 11.81 K/9. The walks are an issue, but if he can keep them below 4 BB/9 he’ll likely be a productive back end reliever.
My last bullpen target is a similarly under-the-radar pitcher in Richard Bleier. Save for his brief Foolish Baseball fame, the Marlins’ lefty has put together back to back quality seasons without much notice. A sub 3.30 FIP in both ‘21 and ‘22 and a well above league average BABIP this year indicate that this isn’t the result of batted ball luck. He racks up an impressive amount of ground balls and walks few.
The walks did increase by almost one BB/9 from 2021 to 2022, so the Jays should be cautious. Without elite stuff, his effectiveness does rely heavily on control; however this could drive down his price and let the Jays pick him up for significantly below market value. If they can ink him for one or two years on a team friendly deal, I don’t see why they wouldn’t. The upside is there and the ‘pen is in desperate need of depth.
There is a brief question as to how Toronto should approach their rotation heading into next year. They dumped a truckload of money into Gausman, Ryu, Berrios and Kikuchi, and so far only one has panned out.
Ryu might return from injury midway through next year, but his ability to be the pitcher they paid for is in question, and his 2022 replacement Ross Stripling has elected free agency. As I mentioned before, Stripling’s season was somewhat of a mystery. There is undoubtedly the potential for another quality season, but given how good he was in 2022 it’s likely that he’ll ask for an overpay given the risk.
The options in the minors aren’t great, though; unless you want a middling Anthony Kay slotting into the middle of the rotation you have to look elsewhere for major league experience. Both Thomas Hatch and Casey Lawrence had uninspiring seasons in Buffalo (FIPs north of 4 for both of them and K/9s below 8), and Jays top prospect Ricky Tiedemann is way too raw for an MLB debut. The 19 year old has shoved at every level he’s been at, but, barring a truly spectacular season in New Hampshire, don’t expect to see the 33rd overall prospect in Rogers Center until 2024.
This free agency period has a plethora of starting pitching talent with whom the Jays can pour over, but I find it unlikely that they will sign anyone large. If Akins can manage to ink a player for significantly below what he believes is market value, I can see him pulling the trigger, but with almost an entire rotation of former free agents, I find it unlikely he’ll stick his hand back into the jar for another.
Plus, the crop he has in Toronto is not bad by any means. Sure they’ve struggled, but bounceback seasons from Kikuchi and Berrios are perfectly plausible. If they pitch at least slightly above average you have two aces in Gausman and Manoah, two quality pitchers in Kikuchi and Berrios, and one filler of Kay, Hatch or Lawrence is enough to send you back to the postseason.
Why go out and spend another ten or fifteen million dollars on a Corey Kluber or a Martín Pérez if you can save that money, use it to fund a Kirk or Bo or Vladdy extension, and still make the playoffs come October?
Earlier, I touched on John Schneider’s catcher dilemma. It’s a first world (first team?) problem to have, but one that if handled ungracefully could cause legitimate harm to the clubhouse and to Toronto’s on field performance.
Kirk and Jansen both performed like starters in 2022, but splitting time between the two and trying to work in a young Moreno could prove to be difficult. Ride the hot bat? Let the youngster start less important games? Trade one of the established catchers to make room?
There’s a multitude of options in Schneider and the front office’s lap, but executing the right one could prove to be more difficult than it appears. If the front office decides to name one starter or trade one of the two major leaguers before next season, the key is determining which player will continue their success.
Jansen is the more established big leaguer, but his history has not suggested he’s anything above an average hitter. His game this year has been pull-heavy, a strategy that we’ve seen work with other previously-average hitters such as José Ramirez. Only one of his fifteen home runs wasn’t pulled (it was dead center); his pull rate of 52.3% would have landed him second among qualified batters this year.
As previously mentioned, this is a genuinely viable strategy to help give once-middling hitters a bit more pop in their bat. The strikeout and walk percentage both improved in ‘22, which undoubtedly helped him achieve that 140 wRC+ and could transfer over to the ‘23 season.
With Jansen, the defense is where he really falters. Statcast rated his pop time in the 45th percentile and his framing in the 42nd. His 2021 numbers were more encouraging, but Jansen’s transition to a bat-first catcher does put more weight on the continued success of said bat. If it drops back to his career averages, he’s about as average a player as they come. With Jansen entering Arb 2 this year, the 27 year old will be significantly more expensive than his 24 and 22 year old counterparts.
There is also some uncertainty in Kirk’s game, though admittedly less. Statcast loves the 5’8” catcher; aside from a sub par pop time and barrel rate, the percentile rankings glow bright red. Kirk seems to achieve the impossible. He doesn’t strikeout, he doesn’t chase, and he consistently hits the ball hard.
He similarly loves to pull the ball, and has found success and some power doing so. The rolling averages do paint a slightly different picture, however. Since the beginning of July, Kirk’s xwOBA has taken a dive and settled around league average. This may be a small, half season hitch, but it does seem indicative of some sophomore slump to start the next year, especially given that Kirk’s game doesn’t revolve around power, BABIP, and positioning could have dragged that xwOBA down significantly. Given the extinction of the shift, it’s likely that his production will resurface some. Will it reach elite levels, though? It’s doubtful.
Defensively, the catcher is an outstanding framer, ranking in the 94th percentile. This will lose value if a robot umpire is instituted in the league, but until that happens framing is still extremely valuable, especially to a staff that has struggled at times. Kirk is also three years younger and yet to hit arbitration, making him less expensive and under team control for longer.
Upon researching these two players, I have seen a report from Jon Morosi that indicates the Jays will be looking to move “one of their catchers” this offseason. Given player performance and team control, I can’t imagine that catcher is Kirk. Jansen has the upside of a fantastic offensive catcher and his stock is highest right now.
I’m not extremely bullish on his return to that level next year or in the years following, but somebody might be. If that somebody is willing to fork over a half-decent starting pitcher and some low-level prospects, I think the Jays have themselves a deal. Gabriel Moreno’s campaign can formally begin.
Something to Watch:
I’m going to be completely honest, I’m writing this spotlight because of his name. Robert Robertis is a real baseball player in the Toronto Blue Jays system who happens to be raking. In Double A. At nineteen years old. Robertis, who is a month younger than I, only played five games at the Low A level before being shot up to Double-A New Hampshire. He slashed .150/.150/.150 in Dunedin before the unexpected promotion, but that didn’t stop the San Felipe native from blasting two home runs in as many games and racking up five hits in his first three games.
Granted, he would go hitless in the last two more games of the season, but he finished with an OPS of 1.000 in seventeen ABs. A nineteen year old phenom raking at the upper levels of the minors; is this indicative of a future star? Probably not. His numbers in the FCL (where he started the year) weren’t anything special.
I’d like to believe otherwise, though. His swing is like Joc-Pederson’s. Robertis takes an open stance before he kicks his front up and flips his hands into a firing position. He holds this position well, landing in a balanced position he fires his hands under his back armpit and extends through the ball.
He’s clearly trying to pull the ball in the air, and his deceleration resembles that of a Pederson splash hit. He’s able to generate whip in his swing while keeping his direction towards centerfield. As his feet shuffle sideways, absorbing the force of his swing, he realizes the ball is absolutely launched and keeps his bat at his side before softly tossing it and jogging to first. You may call this an over-analysis, and that may be close to the truth, but I choose to believe that the hot start in Double-A shows this kid has little fear and the raw tools to succeed at the higher levels. I choose to believe in Robert Robertis.
Categories: 2022 Season Review, Articles, Post-COVID
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