Image: Charlie Neibergall/Associated Press 

2023 Record: 82-80 (.506 win%, 4th in Division)

2024 Payroll: $295,931,647 (1^st)

2024 Projected Lineup (Projected Stats by FanGraphs):

1. 3B DJ LeMahieu, .256 AVG/.337 OBP/.382 SLG, 2.3 fWAR

2. RF Juan Soto, .280 AVG/.423 OBP/.536 SLG, 6.7 fWAR

3. CF Aaron Judge, .271 AVG/.385 OBP/.569 SLG, 6.2 fWAR

4. 1B Anthony Rizzo, .238 AVG/.332 OBP/.426 SLG, 1.3 fWAR

5. 2B Gleyber Torres, .271 AVG/.342 OBP/.455 SLG, 3.8 fWAR

6. LF Alex Verdugo, .268 AVG/.327 OBP/.418 SLG, 1.6 fWAR

7. DH Giancarlo Stanton, .230 AVG/.314 OBP/.462 SLG, 0.6 fWAR

8. SS Anthony Volpe, .226 AVG/.304 OBP/.406 SLG, 2.4 fWAR

9. C Jose Trevino, .240 AVG/.278 OBP/.371 SLG, 2.1 fWAR

10. UTL Oswaldo Cabrera, .234 AVG/.296 OBP/.389 SLG, 0.3 fWAR

2024 Projected Starting Rotation:

1. LHP Nestor Cortes, 141.0 IP/4.01 ERA/1.19 WHIP, 2.2 fWAR

2. LHP Carlos Rodón, 159.0 IP/3.81 ERA/1.15 WHIP, 3.1 fWAR

3. RHP Marcus Stroman, 165.0 IP/4.03 ERA/1.30 WHIP, 2.0 fWAR

4. LHP Clarke Schmidt, 153.0 IP/4.39 ERA/1.31 WHIP, 1.8 fWAR

5. RHP Clayton Beeter, 66.0 IP/4.67 ERA/1.40 WHIP, 0.3 fWAR

*RHP Gerrit Cole (currently on injured list), 109.0 IP/3.62 ERA/1.12 WHIP, 2.0 fWAR

2024 Projected Top 4 Relievers:

1. RHP Clay Holmes, 66.0 IP/3.53 ERA/1.24 WHIP, 0.8 fWAR

2. RHP Jonathan Loáisiga, 64.0 IP/3.73 ERA/1.22 WHIP, 0.6 fWAR

3. RHP Ian Hamilton, 62.0 IP/3.96 ERA/1.31 WHIP, 0.4 fWAR

4. LHP Caleb Ferguson, 63.0 IP/3.43 ERA/1.22 WHIP, 0.7 fWAR

What Baseball Means to New York?

In 2023, the Yankees went 82-80 – their worst season since 1992, the last time they had a losing record. As a result, the discontent among Yankees fans was at its highest levels in recent memory. Fans organized petitions and in-stadium protests urging owner Hal Steinbrenner to fire manager Aaron Boone and general manager Brian Cashman. The chants were more indignant than ever before, the op-eds were more scathingly critical, and the radio show callers were (somehow) more outraged and curmudgeonly; times were troubled in Yankeeland. 

Much of this criticism was not unfounded, especially on the Yankees’ team building and decisions of Brian Cashman. After the end of the 2022 season, it was apparent that the Yankees did not have what it took to keep pace with the juggernauts of the AL like the Astros. The Yankees responded by not making any large additions or improvements to the team and entered 2023 having no competent left-handed bats outside of Anthony Rizzo. Additionally, they relied on infielders Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Oswaldo Cabrera to take significant reps in the outfield.

Some of this roster mismanagement goes back many years, including the Aaron Hicks extension, the Josh Donaldson trade, the Joey Gallo trade, and the Giancarlo Stanton trade, which looks bad in hindsight since it prevented the Yankees from acquiring Bryce Harper or Manny Machado the next offseason.

Ever-present injury issues were also mismanaged by the Yankees, allowing Rizzo to continue to play with a head injury after his collision with Fernando Tatis Jr. at first base. He saw an immediate drop-off in production, making it painfully obvious he was injured.

Other blunders included the hitting staff failing to adjust Anthony Volpe’s approach after a prolonged slump, which Volpe broke out of after a tip from Austin Wells over a now-famous chicken parmesan dinner. The fans were further perturbed by the Yankees’ propensity to give extensive leash to previously-mentioned, aging, unproductive players like Hicks, Gallo, and Donaldson over younger prospects like Oswald Peraza. Despite their unwillingness to call up young players, the Yankees would also withhold prized prospects from trades, leading their trade value to be reduced to essentially nothing. 

The Yankees eventually shifted parts of their ideology, with the decisions to have Anthony Volpe start the season in the big leagues and to call up touted prospects Austin Wells and Jasson Domínguez midway through the season, but it was not enough to save the year. One has to think serious changes will be made if the Yankees have another subpar season, even with the addition of Juan Soto. Will the decision-makers gain back the trust of the fans? Or will the Yankees continue their decline from once being MLB’s marquee franchise? 

New York is home to many storied franchises but none as prestigious as the Yankees. Yankees fans of present have been sustained with the legends of Mickey Mantle, Reggie Jackson, and Derek Jeter. To the city of New York, Yankees baseball means a multigenerational legacy of success. Yet, this current generation has seen nothing of the sort, and the Yankees’ championship window with this core is closing shockingly fast.

An extension of Juan Soto and this newest crop of young talent panning out would serve to widen the current window, but when you have arguably the best hitter and pitcher in the league in their primes, you have as good a chance as anyone. Aaron Judge is 31, and Gerrit Cole is now 33. How many years do each of them realistically have left at their peak? Two? Three? Both of them are already being bogged down by injuries before the season has even started. With the fan pressure, jobs on the line, and no guarantees of the futures of any of their top players, the Yankees’ mindset must be one of heightened urgency; their time to win it all is now. 

2023-24 Offseason Recap:

Although many fans lost faith in Brian Cashman entirely, Hal Steinbrenner stayed the course, retaining both him and Aaron Boone for 2024. Even still, the team’s performance and its fallout seemed to be a boiling point for upper management, a wakeup call to re-evaluate the roster-construction and decision-making process.

The first of these re-evaluations was rumored to be an audit by an outside company of the Yankees’ decision making process, which included reviewing their use of analytics. It turns out that this “audit” was much less of a story than originally made out to be, but it still showed a shift in thought-process.  When referring to the Yankees’ use of analytics, Aaron Judge said, “I think it’s just looking at the right numbers. I think maybe we might be looking at the wrong ones.” Although it is unknown which exact numbers Judge is referring to, it represents the newfound introspection of the Yankees, who were unfalteringly committed to their process for the past few seasons. 

The first major move of the Yankees offseason was the acquisition of outfielder Alex Verdugo from the Boston Red Sox for pitchers Richard Fitts, Greg Weissert, and Nicholas Judice. Although the Yankees and Red Sox are typically wary of trading with each other, the ostensible perfect fit of Verdugo into the Yankees roster seemed to have outweighed the rivalry factor. The organization was looking to add a true outfielder and diversify their right-handed, power-hitting-heavy lineup, and with this trade, they did just that. Verdugo should start many games in left field and slide into the lower part of the Yankees lineup, providing good contact and lots of doubles.

The Yankees were not done adding lefty hitting outfielders, though. As the Winter Meetings were winding down, the Yankees made the first large splash of the offseason and landed Juan Soto and Trent Grisham from the strapped-for-cash-and-pitching Padres in exchange for Michael King, Drew Thorpe, Randy Vásquez, Jhony Brito, and Kyle Higashioka. The Yankees landed a 25-year-old generational hitting talent for a markedly lower price than what the Padres gave up to acquire him, but not without a steep cost.

Soto only has one year left before he is a free agent, and the trade also gutted the Yankees pitching depth, as they gave away many of the young arms that had been contributing at the major league level. The biggest loss was King, who was one of baseball’s most effective relievers for the past couple years and had begun to start games down the stretch in 2023. Even still, the Yankees got some much-needed offensive firepower and outfield depth; now, they get to pair up arguably the two best hitters in the league back-to-back.  

Still, by making trades to assuage their offensive woes, the Yankees had created a large hole in the starting rotation, which had been injury prone the past year and survived on the backs of the young pitchers who stepped up, including Brito, Vásquez, and King.

To solve this issue, the Yankees went deep into pursuit of international free agent Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the star 25-year-old Japanese pitcher who was coming off of three consecutive seasons of winning the Nippon Professional Baseball League’s Cy Young award equivalent. Touted as one of the best players to ever come out of Japan, Cashman and the Yankees had been courting him for years, even saving his number 18 during the 2023 season. After a long bidding period, the Yankees lost out on Yamamoto to the Dodgers, who gave him a 12-year, $325 million contract, superseding the 10 years, $300 million that the Yankees were offering. 

Despite the Yankees’ infatuation with Yamamoto, Steinbrenner and Cashman felt as if $300 million dollars was a generous enough offer and refused to go any higher. Thus, they had to pivot, and they did so by signing Long Island native Marcus Stroman to a two-year, $37 million contract with an $18 million player option for a third year, conditional on him throwing 140 innings in 2025.

Stroman and the Yankees have had a tumultuous relationship stemming from his 2019 trade from the Blue Jays to the Mets, where Stroman expressed frustration over not being traded to the Yankees. He was further irked by Cashman’s comments saying he wouldn’t be a “difference-maker” and that he would have been in the bullpen come postseason time.

The two have mended their relationship, though, with both parties saying that it was water under the bridge during the post-signing press conferences.  After a stellar first half of 2023, Stroman’s play declined in the second half, resulting in an ERA of 3.95, his highest since 2018. Despite this, with the injury to Gerrit Cole, Stroman is now expected to slot into a volatile rotation and be the Yankees’ most consistent starter, at least until Cole returns. 

While these were the Yankees most impactful moves, they also made a few smaller ones, including the acquisition of left-handed reliever Caleb Ferguson from the Dodgers to replace Wandy Peralta and the swap of former first-round shortstop Trey Sweeney for Dodgers infielder prospect Jorbit Vivas.

Overall, it was a lively offseason for the Yankees, one that seemed to address many of their needs yet also leave some holes in terms of pitching depth that will likely need to be redressed at some point in the season. The Yankees know this, though, and had been in the running for players such as Corbin Burnes and Dylan Cease, who they missed out on because of their hesitance to trade top prospect Spencer Jones.

At the time of writing this, Jordan Montgomery remains unsigned, and it seems as if the Yankees are not biting, even with Cole’s injury. Despite John Heyman’s reports that the Yankees and Montgomery have “re-engaged,” it still seems unlikely that they will sign him considering the high amount of tax they would have to pay to replace Cole for only two months. This may change as the price continues to be driven down, but for now, they are riding with what they have. 

2024 Regular Season Preview:

This season could go a number of different ways for the Yankees. Everything could work exactly as intended; if all of their players stay healthy and perform at the level past seasons indicate they are capable of, the Yankees will be one of the best teams in Major League Baseball. This same sentence has been uttered in recent seasons, and it hasn’t turned out that way.

The Yankees have been constantly hampered by injuries and under-performance, of which 2023 was the prime example. If the concrete lip at the base of the wall in Dodger Stadium had been padded, if Fernando Tatis Jr. and Anthony Rizzo did not get into a freak collision at first base, if Carlos Rodón and Nestor Cortes had been healthy and performed as expected, if Giancarlo Stanton and DJ LeMahieu had played as they had in past seasons, then the Yankees would have been in the playoffs and primed for a deep run. 

Yet, “ifs” are immaterial, and if there is one thing that this past season and the ones before it have demonstrated, it is that anything can go off the rails at any time, with an injury or a bad slump. The dominoes have already started to fall in 2024. The Yankees recently announced Gerrit Cole would be out for at least 1-2 months after experiencing elbow discomfort, while Judge, LeMahieu, and Rizzo have all struggled with nagging injuries throughout spring training. Thankfully, Cole seems to have avoided a UCL tear, which would have required Tommy John surgery and a possible two-year absence from pitching, but it is still not ideal. The Yankees are saying that the injuries to Judge, Rizzo and LeMahieu are minor, but it is worrying nonetheless that they are already banged up. 

Furthermore, there are many aspects of this team that are difficult to predict. Optimistically, the aforementioned Judge, Rizzo, LeMahieu, Stanton, Cortes, and Rodón should be due for some upwards regression to the mean, as they all had uncharacteristically dismal seasons. Yet, it is necessary to wonder if some of these declines may be more permanent; LeMahieu is 35 and Stanton is 34, making it possible that their decline is age-related. Additionally, Cortes has never had to take on as high of a workload as he did since his breakout 2021 season, and the majority of Rodón’s career has been riddled with injuries, his stellar 2021 and 2022 being the standout seasons, not the typical ones. 

Aside from Cortes and Rodón, the rest of the rotation should be interesting this year, considering all of the pitching that was traded away and the injury to Cole. These roles figure to be filled by some young pitchers, including Luis Gil, Will Warren, Chase Hampton, and Clayton Beeter, in addition to journeyman Luke Weaver. Clarke Schmidt is coming off a year where he seems to have cemented himself as a major-league-caliber starter, but the next step for him is to improve his ability to get lefties out.

Out of all the pitchers in the Yankees rotation, the one whose year is easiest to predict is Marcus Stroman, who has pitched to a mid-3.00s ERA in each of his past four seasons. The bullpen may be the area that the Yankees have had the least troubles with, as Matt Blake and the Yankees pitching coaches have shown penchant for getting the most out of relievers like Ian Hamilton or Clay Holmes.

Scott Effross, Tommy Kahnle, and Lou Trivino will all be injured to start the year but should return midway through to add to the current stable, anchored down by Holmes who should be seeing the most save opportunities. As of recent, the Yankees have not had a set closer, instead preferring to close out games based on matchup, but Holmes more often than not has been their most effective reliever, despite some occasional meltdowns.

The bullpen is rounded out by lefty Caleb Ferguson, acquired from the Dodgers, who will be their go-to-guy against left handed hitters, while Jonathan Loáisiga will seek to reclaim his dominant status of two seasons ago after an injury-riddled 2023. 

The lineup, much like the starting rotation, will be boom or bust. Firstly, some of their veterans had uncharacteristically bad years. According to Baseball Savant, DJ LeMahieu’s xBA and xwOBA dropped drastically from 2022 to 2023, a possible sign of decline in the 35-year-old. The drop could be explained by a prolonged slump in the first half of the year, as in the second half of the year, he seemed to have rounded into form. Having him play well and anchor down the leadoff spot would be a huge boon to the Yankees, but he is still a question mark in their lineup considering his worrying injury history. This has already become a concern after he suffered bone bruise from a pitch that he fouled off his foot. An ineffective LeMahieu would be a large blow to the Yankees infield, which lacks depth.

The other veterans, Giancarlo Stanton and Anthony Rizzo, share similar stories. After multiple seasons plagued by injury, Stanton slimmed down over the offseason, which may help with his injury woes, but he is 34, and power hitters are not known for having the longest shelf life. In the past three seasons, his OPS has gone down from .870, to .759, to .695, while his WAR went from 3.1 in 2021, 0.7 in 2022, and then -0.8 in 2023. The Yankees would certainly welcome production from Stanton, especially considering his massive contract, but they have insurance for the possibility of him not producing in the form of their new outfield acquisitions.

Meanwhile, Rizzo’s stats were bogged down by the games he played with post-concussion syndrome, so to me, the projection by FanGraphs seems to be a bit conservative. He was having a good year before the collision and has been very consistent for the past few.

Out of the newly acquired left handed outfielders, Alex Verdugo will provide solid defense and a high contact rate, while Juan Soto sports sub-par defense but generational hitting with a career .946 OPS. These two should provide some much needed consistency in the corner outfield positions. The third new outfield acquisition, Trent Grisham, ranks second among outfielders in Outs Above Average since 2020 with 17, so he should be in play as a defense-first but offensively limited backup centerfielder to Aaron Judge. The Yankees will likely pencil him in at DH often to keep him healthy, so Grisham should expect some time. 

The Yankees also have a crop of soon-to-graduate and recently-graduated prospects that should contribute at the major league level. Anthony Volpe will slot in at shortstop, looking to build on his Gold-Glove-winning season by rounding out his offensive game and raising his average, instead of selling out for home runs like he was prone to do for stretches of 2023.

The Yankees are also expecting outfielder Jasson Dominguez to return from his elbow injury mid-way through the season after providing a tantalizing glimpse of his potential in a week of being called up in late 2023.

Another top outfield prospect, Spencer Jones, is highly valued by the Yankees, who refused to include him in deals for Corbin Burnes and Dylan Cease. In spring training, he showed why the Yankees were so hesitant to trade him, hitting at a 1.287 OPS. He will likely start the year in AA-Somerset, but if he continues to hit at this level, he could force his way up to the big leagues by the end of the year. It is also possible that he doesn’t see the major leagues until 2025, as he still has to work on his ~30% strikeout rate. 

Another one of the hotter bats of spring training, Austin Wells, should split time behind the plate in 2024 with veteran 2022 Platinum Glove winner Jose Trevino, who battled a wrist injury last year that eventually ended his season.

The pair of Oswalds, Oswald Peraza and Oswaldo Cabrera, should both factor in as a bench infielders down the stretch (Cabrera has corner outfield versatility as well), although Peraza will be sidelined for the first few weeks of the season with a shoulder injury.  

Lost in the flood of the conspicuous infield situation is Gleyber Torres, who seems to have settled in as one of the top second basemen in the American League. In 2023, he had a career-low 14.6% strikeout rate, accrued 3.2 WAR – his best since a 3.6 mark in his juiced-ball fueled 38-home-run 2019 season –, and raised his average from .257 to .273 – similar to his .310-to.-347 raise in OBP.

Torres’ importance to the lineup has been understated, yet he is a free agent at the end of this upcoming season, so the Yankees may have to choose between extending him and extending Soto. The most consistent bat for the Yankees last year, Torres now seems to be an afterthought in the lineup, which is not an indictment on his production. Rather, it underlines the major additions that significantly changed the dynamic of the lineup, which now poses to be much more balanced, consistent, and deadly. 

Player to Watch #1: RF Aaron Judge

Aaron Judge, the single-season AL home run record-holder, is one of, if not the best hitter in the league. He does everything well; he hits for power, he hits for average, he plays above-average defense, and he can even steal a few bases. Judge’s only pitfall is his inability to stay consistently healthy. Many of his major injuries have been unlucky accidents, including getting hit by a pitch in the wrist and hurting a toe ligament on the concrete base of the wall of Dodger Stadium, an injury which he says he will have to tread carefully around for the rest of his career.

If Judge stays healthy this year, he should produce at a similar rate as he has in the past two years. In 2023, he began the year at a similar pace to his record-breaking 2022, finishing with 37 home runs and 5.3 WAR in 106 games. His production slowed after coming back from his toe injury, bringing down his average to .267. However, his expected stats did not change, making me think that the FanGraphs-projected 6.7 WAR in 152 games in 2024 is a bit conservative as well. 

While Soto’s production is almost a given considering his durability, it is a healthy Judge that can unlock the true potential of this lineup. Judge factors in to play many reps in center field this year, a more grueling position than playing the diminutive right field at Yankee Stadium, so Aaron Boone will play it safely with Judge, often DHing him and giving him rest days. Aaron Judge producing at an Aaron Judge-like pace with the best supporting cast of his career is an enticing idea for the Yankees, and a combination that could lead them deep into the playoffs. 

Player to Watch #2: SS Anthony Volpe

The Jasson Dominguez hype train came to an abrupt stop with the news of his needing Tommy John surgery, which will have him out until midway through 2024. Based on the recovery of previous position players who got TJ (Bryce Harper, Didi Gregorius, Gleyber Torres), it may take even more time for him to get back to his pre-surgery level. Thus, Anthony Volpe will once again be the exciting young player Yankees fans will focus on for 2024.

A top five prospect before making his way to the big leagues, Volpe had a solid rookie campaign, exceeding expectations defensively but not overwhelming on offense. In 159 games played, he hit to the tune of a .209 average, .666 OPS, and 1.9 WAR, while hitting 21 home runs and swiping 24 bases.

In the minors, Volpe was known as more of a contact bat than a home-run hitter, and his average may have suffered in 2023 from trying to sell out for launch angle. Another factor in his season was his workload, which seemed to tire him out by the end of the year; his average was dragged down significantly by a late-season slump.

The narrative around Volpe’s goals for 2024 has been for him to increase his average and reduce his strikeout rate. If he manages to improve his contact skills and retain some of the power he showed, the 22-year-old should become one of the premier young shortstops of the AL. This upcoming season will be an important one for Volpe, but he has shown improvements at every level he has played at in his career, so there is no reason not to expect him to do the same now. 

Player to Watch #3: LHP Carlos Rodón

Carlos Rodón is one of the most polarizing players on the Yankees roster. After signing a six-year contract worth $162 million in the 2023 offseason, his first year on the Yankees was marred by injuries and underperformance, leading some to already declare Rodón’s contract a disaster. There is certainly a possibility of this turning into reality, as Rodón got the contract coming off of the best two years of his career, but it is still too early to know for sure.

In 64 innings pitched last year, Rodón had a 6.85 ERA, 8.95 K/9 rate (down from 11.98 in 2022 and 12.55 in 2021) and -0.2 WAR. His velocity and pitch mix was mostly the same as previous years, meaning that his problems were likely due to a lack of command, possibly because of the implementation of the pitch clock rushing his delivery.

It was reported that Rodón put in a lot of work in the offseason, and he arrived at spring training noticeably thinner and more effective on the mound. He will have a tall task of stepping into the place of Gerrit Cole for the first couple months of the season, but if he continues to have strong outings like he has in spring training, it will be hugely beneficial to the Yankees. If he struggles again, this time without the steady presence of Cole, the Yankees rotation could be in for a rough time. 

Position Group to Watch: Starting Pitching

As was referenced when discussing Rodón, the Yankees rotation is going to be the make-or-break position group this season. While the offense does have some question marks as well, with all of the additions they made, it is hard to envision the lineup becoming a point of weakness for the Yankees, even if they have to deal with some injuries. The rotation, on the other hand, could easily implode.

Out of the ten non-openers who made a start for the Yankees last year, five of them are no longer on the team, and they only made one acquisition in Marcus Stroman. Furthermore, their reigning AL Cy Young award winner will be out for the first couple months of the year, forcing them to rely on a group of pitchers who have never shown consistent MLB production in their careers.

Nestor Cortes and Carlos Rodón were injured, and when healthy, struggled last year; Clarke Schmidt has only had one full year of being an MLB starter; and the still yet-to-be-named fifth pitcher will in all likelihood be a prospect. Marcus Stroman is the only arm who the Yankees can safely assume will pitch to his standard of a mid-3.00s ERA.

So, there is potential for this to be catastrophic. Yet, it would also be malpractice to ignore the potential for this rotation to be good, too. It is easy to forget that Cortes and Rodón were both top pitchers in their respective leagues two years ago, and Schmidt turned in a strong first full campaign. Furthermore, the pitchers in play to fill the fifth spot, including Luis Gil, Clayton Beeter, and Will Warren, have all been solid in spring training. If this rotation can keep it together until the final stretch of the season and the return of Cole, it could be a very strong portent for their World Series hopes. 

2024 Record Prediction: 96-66

Despite the healthy amount of cynicism in this piece, it is hard to ignore that on paper, the Yankees are up there with the Braves and the Dodgers as one of the premier rosters in the league. The boom-or-bust nature of this roster makes it difficult to predict, but I will be optimistic for this once. The Yankees will keep the ship on course for this season, leading to an AL East victory and deep postseason berth.

The full potential of this lineup can reach over 100 wins, but one still has to account for some injuries, slumps, and the AL East once again being very competitive. 2024 seems to be the Yankees’ best shot at a championship since they were one game from making the World Series in 2017, but the stars will still have to align for them to make this a reality.

Categories: 2024 Season Preview, Articles, Season Analysis

Tags: 2024 Season Preview, New York Yankees