Home › Season Analysis › 2024 Season Preview › 2024 MLB Season Preview: St. Louis Cardinals

2024 MLB Season Preview: St. Louis Cardinals

By on • ( 0 )

Image

2023 Record: 71-91 (.438 win%, Last in Division)

2024 Payroll: $164,301,667 (10th)

2024 Projected Lineup:

1. LF Lars Nootbaar, .257 AVG/.359 OBP/.437 SLG, 2.6 fWAR

2. 1B Paul Goldschmidt, .269 AVG/.361 OBP/.467 SLG, 3.1 fWAR

3. 2B Nolan Gorman, .246 AVG/.324 OBP/.470 SLG, 2.5 fWAR

4. 3B Nolan Arenado, .263 AVG/.323 OBP/.466 SLG, 3.5 fWAR

5. C Willson Contreras, .252 AVG/.343 OBP/.454 SLG, 2.4 fWAR

6. DH Brendan Donovan, .278 AVG/.369 OBP/.415 SLG, 2.2 fWAR

7. RF Jordan Walker, .266 AVG/.335 OBP/.443 SLG, 1.3 fWAR

8. CF Dylan Carlson, .258 AVG/.343 OBP/.423 SLG, 1.5 fWAR

9. SS Masyn Winn, .247 AVG/.308 OBP/.382 SLG, 1.5 fWAR

10. UTL Tommy Edman, .265 AVG/.321 OBP/.407 SLG, 1.6 fWAR

2024 Projected Starting Rotation:

1. RHP Sonny Gray, 180.0 IP/3.83 ERA/1.28 WHIP, 3.1 fWAR

2. RHP Miles Mikolas, 184.0 IP/4.53 ERA/1.31 WHIP, 1.9 fWAR

3. LHP Steven Matz, 135.0 IP/3.92 ERA/1.25 WHIP, 2.0 fWAR

4. RHP Lance Lynn, 167.0 IP/4.34 ERA/1.29 WHIP, 2.1 fWAR

5. RHP Kyle Gibson, 178.0 IP/4.32 ERA/1.37 WHIP, 2.0 fWAR

6. LHP Zack Thompson, 78.0 IP/4.10 ERA/1.39 WHIP, 0.5 fWAR

2024 Projected Top 4 Relievers:

1. RHP Ryan Helsley, 65.0 IP/3.21 ERA/1.18 WHIP, 1.0 fWAR

2. RHP Giovanny Gallegos, 68.0 IP/3.99 ERA/1.23 WHIP, 0.4 fWAR

3. RHP Andrew Kittredge, 62.0 IP/4.10 ERA/1.31 WHIP, 0.3 fWAR

4. LHP JoJo Romero, 64.0 IP/3.28 ERA/1.25 WHIP, 0.7 fWAR

What Baseball Means to St. Louis?

St. Louis has always been a baseball town and is extremely faithful to the Cardinals. This was proven by their 40,000-per-game attendance holding strong last season despite a disappointing 71-91 record. However, the city’s patience will be tested if the team has a second-straight losing season. The fans’ expectation of winning is clear. TV viewership numbers fell 28% from 2022 and will continue to decline if the hope for a playoff run is not there. Right now, the fans will get ready to see the Clydesdales on Opening Day and hope that last year was just an anomaly as the franchise’s traditions and consistent winning continue.

2023-24 Offseason Recap:

Key Departures:

Key Acquisitions:

  • Sonny Gray, RHP – three years, $75 million
  • Kyle Gibson, RHP – one year, $13 million
  • Lance Lynn, RHP – one year, $11 million
  • Jared Young, INF/OF – claimed off waivers
  • Riley O’Brien, RHP – traded from SEA
  • Andrew Kittredge, RHP – traded from TB
  • Victor Santos, RHP – traded from BOS
  • Nick Robertson, RHP – traded from BOS
  • John King, LHP – one year, $1.005 million
  • Matt Carpenter, INF/DH – one year, $740,000
  • Keynan Middleton, RHP – one year, $5 million + one-year team option
  • Brandon Crawford, SS – one year, $2 million 

The three new starters, along with the transition of Zack Thompson to the rotation, should completely transform a starting pitching staff that ranked 19th in fWAR last season. The new relievers look to sure up a bullpen that was 8th worst in 2023 with a 4.47 ERA, but was ranked 14th in fWAR due to the workload. Carpenter provides a much-needed support bat in the infield and at DH to cover for injured and resting players against right-handed pitching. Crawford can do the same while also helping mentor the young Masyn Winn.

2024 Regular Season Preview:

The Cardinals look to use their lineup depth and improved bullpen to assist a new-look starting rotation in their quest for a bounce-back season and a division title. However, there are some serious question marks that could get in the way.

One of these is the starting rotation. Each of the new rotation pieces has at least one red flag. First off, the new Cardinals ace is Sonny Gray who is already going to miss a start due to injury. Gray was excellent last season, but his xFIP was 3.64, which aligns extremely closely with his 2021 and 2022 campaigns when he posted a 3.66 xFIP in each. In 2023, it appears that Gray was lucky to have not given up more home runs with an actual FIP of 2.83 after posting marks of 3.99 and 3.40 in ’21 and ’22, respectively. I would expect something closer to his 2022 season this year and not another 5.3 WAR showing. The good news is that the Cardinals ballpark is more similar to Minnesota’s than to Cincinnati’s. This means Gray is unlikely to give up as many home runs next season as he did in ’21, which contributed to his 3.99 FIP that year. If he keeps the home run totals down again and gets healthy quickly, I would not be surprised if Gray finishes above 3 WAR again.

Kyle Gibson struggles to get early strikes. Since 2020, he has the 9th-lowest qualified percentage of PA that ended with the batter ahead in the count (28.3%). If Gibson can’t improve early in plate appearances, he could cause a lot of trouble for this team, as the defense behind him isn’t nearly as star-studded as it has been in the recent past. The bright side of this statistic is that one reason he doesn’t get ahead in counts is that a lot of his early-count pitches get put into play. This increases Gibson’s inning total and makes him the workhorse he is, which will keep the rest of the roster fresh. Last season, Gibson threw 192 innings for a 4.73 ERA, which resulted in 2.6 fWAR and 0.9 bWAR. Expect more of the same this season.

Lance Lynn has been far from consistent in recency. He went from being in Cy Young contention in 2021 (5.5 bWAR, 2.69 ERA) to average in 2022 (0.7 bWAR, 3.99 ERA) to bad in 2023 with the White Sox (-1.1 bWAR, 6.47 ERA), but became solid again with the Dodgers in the back half of ’23 (0.3 bWAR, 4.36 ERA). If the Cardinals can get what the Dodgers got out of Lynn for a full season, this will be a good addition to the rotation, but 11 starts is not a large enough sample to feel confident about.

The starting rotation as a whole is unpredictable outside of Miles Mikolas, who has been rather steady over the last two seasons. Mikolas posted 2.8 fWAR in 2022 and 3.1 in 2023, with 2.4 and 1.9 bWAR, respectively. He primarily accumulated this WAR through his 200-inning workload during both seasons. Though his outcomes were much better in 2022 (3.29 ERA in 2022 and 4.78 ERA in 2023), FanGraphs does not take run scoring into account as much in their WAR calculation, instead using expected stats. This means you can expect Mikolas’ fWAR to be around the same this season as it was during the last two and his bWAR and ERA to be somewhere in between those performances. In any case, he will continue to be a heavy-workload, solid starter that keeps the opposing lineups within reach.

Steven Matz settled into his role nicely last season after a rocky start. He finished with 2.0 fWAR and a 3.86 ERA over 105 innings, closing out the season with five-straight quality starts. If Matz continues this positive momentum, he could be the true number-two starter the Cardinals were hoping for when they signed him. Now healthier, Matz has a promising outlook heading into the season, and I am excited to see him pitch.

The bullpen looks a little bit different this season without Jordan Hicks, but Helsley and Gallegos are back and the Cardinals did a nice job acquiring talent to fill Hicks’ role. This starts with Andrew Kittredge. In his last full season with the Rays, Kittredge put up 2.4 bWAR with a 1.88 ERA in an All-Star season. His highest ERA since 2020 is 3.15, so if he returns to full strength, he will be an excellent piece in the bullpen.

With the exit of Tyler O’Neill, the battle for outfield spots should be less controversial, but injuries may cause what was a battle to become a search instead, as was the case last year. We can expect to see a lot of Dylan Carlson and Jordan Walker, with Nootbaar and Edman hopefully joining them in the outfield conversation soon. It appears that Alec Burleson will begin the season getting some time in the outfield as a result of the injuries. I personally would prefer if Brendan Donovan got the nod for the majority of the outfield opportunities while injury troubles persist due to his on-base skills and defensive capability.

Once either Nootbaar or Edman return, Burleson should be a fringe outfield option who gets the majority of his reps at DH. His -9 Outs Above Average (OAA) ranked second-worst on the team ahead of only Jordan Walker, who was learning to play outfield on the fly. Burleson just doesn’t appear to have the reaction time or speed necessary to demand a long-term role in the outfield.

Edman’s move to the outfield will leave Masyn Winn at shortstop. Winn appears to be the biggest question mark and potential weak spot in the lineup. In his small sample, he had -3 OAA and produced almost nothing offensively. Winn will need to step up this season if he doesn’t want to lose his role to Edman, who is ready to move back to shortstop if healthy and if the other outfielders are playing well. Additionally, we all know what we hope to see from Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Gorman; more on the infield later on.

After some controversy over their defensive performance last season, Willson Contreras and Iván Herrera will return to catch again in 2024. Knizner’s departure passes the full-time major league backup role to Herrera. Besides the rocky start, Contreras had a quietly good season in 2023, slashing .264/.358/.467 for a 124 OPS+ and 3.4 bWAR. Herrera had a 112 OPS+ over just 44 PA last season and already mashed a home run during Spring Training, so look for him to try and carve out an offensive role in addition to the backup spot he acquired. 

The biggest red flag going into the 2023 season is injuries. The outfield is already in question as Nootbaar and Edman will miss time, and we know Gray will be out for at least his first start as well. One of the biggest problems last season was that the best lineup the Cardinals could have fielded was never able stay healthy at the same time. The Opening Day lineup a year ago never played another game together as a unit, and the problem has already begun to repeat itself. If the team doesn’t stay healthy for a lengthy stretch of the season, they have little hope of reaching the playoffs.

Despite all of the red flags, I believe the Cardinals should be optimistic about where they stand, especially after such a poor season a year ago. The division is within reach, and the roster is capable. Once a team reaches October, it is all up in the air, so the Cardinals job is simply to get there.

Player to Watch #1: SP Sonny Gray

Sonny Gray was elite last season, posting 5.3 bWAR and fWAR with a 2.79 ERA in 184 innings with the Twins, and the Cardinals will need every bit of his effort from last season to transfer to St. Louis. If Gray can be a true ace this year, he can provide something the Cardinals did not have much of last season and didn’t have at all after trading Jordan Montgomery. The starting pitching remains the team’s biggest question mark, so Gray’s presence as an ace would be the first domino to push towards things going right for the Cardinals this season.

Player to Watch #2: SP Zack Thompson

With Sonny Gray already out to start the season and uncertainty throughout an aging rotation, Zack Thompson is likely going to get a sizable workload as a starter this season. He had a promising final couple of months after being built up to be a starter last season (0.9 fWAR over nine starts, 49.1 IP, 4.38 ERA, 9.3 K/9, 2.55 BB/9, and a 4.01 FIP), so Thompson could breakout as the quality young starting pitcher the team desperately needs in 2024.

Player to Watch #3: RF Jordan Walker

After improving upon his defense and learning to properly utilize his athleticism, it has become clear that Walker will get the opportunity to play a full season in the outfield this year. He had flashes of solid defense at the end of last year and slashed .276/.342/.445 with 16 HR in 117 games. Assuming the defensive side of the ball becomes consistent, it is obvious that he will earn more appearances and develop further offensively. Look out for a Walker breakout year if things click.

Position Group to Watch: Infielders

On the corners, 1B Paul Goldschmidt and 3B Nolan Arenado each went from MVP production in 2022 to a season amongst their career worsts in 2023. Goldschmidt dropped from 7.8 bWAR to 3.4 and Arenado from 7.9 to 2.4. Goldschmidt only had a 120 OPS+ after posting a 177 OPS+ a year ago, and Arenado fell from 151 to 109. To return to championship contention, both of these players will need to bounce back to their usual superstar status, even if they don’t get back to MVP contention. 

SS Masyn Winn and his 100-MPH arm will be taking over for his first full season as Gorman’s counterpart, and he simply has to be more productive offensively than he was during his stint last season. He put up a 29 wRC+ batting .172 with 2 HR over 37 games. If he can find a way to get on base more often and develop further defensively, he could easily become an impact player with his glove in the same way Tommy Edman did, but that is a big if.

2B Nolan Gorman led the team in home runs with 27 in 2023 and will look to expand and improve upon his breakout season. Gorman put up an .840 OPS vs. LHP last season in just 73 AB, so he has made a strong case to play every day regardless of who the opposing pitcher is. If this production continues, he is likely to turn into a franchise cornerstone.

2024 Record Prediction: 85-77

As I outlined during the preview, the team simply has too many question marks to believe that they will return to the level of their recent successes in 2022 and 2021. This is especially the case after what happened in a year ago, but hope is not lost to win the division and make a playoff run. Due to the new scheduling rules from last season, 85 wins could go a lot further than it had in the past. The entire NL Central plays each other less often and may struggle to win games across divisions as a whole, meaning the division title could go the Cardinals even if they don’t have a super impressive win total. The Twins took home the AL Central crown last season with 87 wins and could’ve gotten away with 85; this may be a similar story. 

The Brewers lost Craig Counsell, and I believe this will be more detrimental to the club than many expect. Add this to losing their ace Corbin Burnes, among others. Marcus Stroman signed with the Yankees, so the Cubs lost their ace from last season as well, but added Counsell. This could pay dividends. In my opinion, the Reds and Pirates have not done enough to become immediate threats for the division. This means the NL Central as a whole is unlikely to have a standout team, and the Cardinals and Cubs should be considered the top contenders. The likely decline from the Brewers and the lack of a standout improvement from the other teams in the division point me in the direction of a low win total division winner, and I believe it could very well be the Cardinals.

‹
›

Categories: 2024 Season Preview, Articles, Season Analysis

Tags: ,

Leave a comment