2023 Record: 84-78 (.519 win%, 2nd in Division)
2024 Payroll: $130,771,716 (16th)
2024 Projected Lineup:
1. RF Corbin Carroll, .272 AVG/.354 OBP/.473 SLG, 4.9 fWAR
2. 2B Ketel Marte, .277 AVG/.353 OBP/.468 SLG, 3.7 fWAR
3. C Gabriel Moreno, .281 AVG/.341 OBP/.414 SLG, 3.3 fWAR
4. 1B Christian Walker, .254 AVG/.335 OBP/.457 SLG, 2.6 fWAR
5. DH Joc Pederson, .252 AVG/.343 OBP/.451 SLG, 1.2 fWAR
6. LF Lourdes Gurriel Jr., .279 AVG/.328 OBP/.449 SLG, 1.6 fWAR
7. 3B Eugenio Suárez, .229 AVG/.320 OBP/.406 SLG, 1.7 fWAR
8. CF Alek Thomas, .259 AVG/.313 OBP/.415 SLG, 2.1 fWAR
9. SS Geraldo Perdomo, .241 AVG/.338 OBP/.347 SLG, 1.5 fWAR
10. UTL Jace Peterson, .234 AVG/.320 OBP/.353 SLG, 0.1 fWAR
2024 Projected Starting Rotation:
1. RHP Zac Gallen, 197.0 IP/3.69 ERA/1.20 WHIP, 3.3 fWAR
2. RHP Merrill Kelly, 184.0 IP/4.07 ERA/1.30 WHIP, 2.4 fWAR
3. LHP Eduardo Rodríguez, 174.0 IP/3.82 ERA/1.30 WHIP, 3.0 fWAR
4. RHP Brandon Pfaadt, 151.0 IP/4.18 ERA/1.23 WHIP, 2.2 fWAR
5. RHP Ryne Nelson, 120.0 IP/4.64 ERA/1.37 WHIP, 0.9 fWAR
2024 Projected Top 4 Relievers:
1. RHP Paul Sewald, 66.0 IP/3.78 ERA/1.22 WHIP, 0.7 fWAR
2. RHP Kevin Ginkel, 64.0 IP/3.66 ERA/1.27 WHIP, 0.7 fWAR
3. RHP Miguel Castro, 63.0 IP/4.10 ERA/1.35 WHIP, 0.2 fWAR
4. LHP Andrew Saalfrank, 62.0 IP/3.87 ERA/1.40 WHIP, 0.3 fWAR
What Baseball Means to Phoenix?
Once a 110-loss team just two-and-a-half years ago, the future for the Arizona Diamondbacks seemed in flux, similar to when the team first arrived in Arizona 25 years ago. Only one qualified hitter recorded an above-average wRC+, and no pitcher on the roster north of 70 innings earned an ERA below 4.30. They also had just handed out an $85M contract to the quickly declining Madison Bumgarner. It was bleak. These fortunes flipped on a dime this past season, though, as the Diamondbacks navigated the NL gauntlet en route to a National League Championship, well, because baseball happened. And Corbin Carroll.
Put simply, the Diamondbacks are on the up and on a level that almost nobody expected.
2023-24 Offseason Recap:
After the dust had settled from a very busy October for the Diamondbacks, and everyone, players and staff included, got a chance to catch their breath for a moment, a few glaring needs became apparent on the major league roster.
First and foremost, the Diamondbacks needed a reinforced offense that is no stranger to the home run. In 2023, the D-Backs identified as a scrappy team that will beat you with their elite defense (2nd in outs above average) and superior base-running abilities (6th in base-running runs above average). This proved effective for 2023’s sake, but the offense remained below average (18th in team wRC+), while turning in a lackluster 166 homers, good for 22nd in baseball.
Because almost no team in baseball struck out less than the Diamondbacks last year, there was clear warrant to add big-swinging position players, and the D-Backs did just that. The additions of Joc Pederson and Eugenio Suárez seem to fit the bill for this role, as each has averaged about 23 homers per season over the last three years. The Ks will always be high and Joc will likely occupy the DH spot the majority of the year, but Suarez’s pristine defense and the extra-base hits both can pile on will make them worthwhile acquisitions.
Additionally, the D-Backs needed some depth in the middle of their rotation. This became especially apparent in the 2023 postseason when their starters failed to go six innings in more than 70% of their games. Also, after the departure of Zach Davies, only one remaining starter slotted into next year’s rotation was projected to be over the age of 28, and veteran lefty Eduardo Rodríguez was brought in to add some stability to the young group.
Rodríguez is coming off of a fresh 2023 with Detroit when he posted a 3.30 ERA and 3.66 FIP in 152.2 IP. Considering he has a great track record as a workhorse starting pitcher, accumulating at least 150 innings in three out of his last four seasons, $20M AAV should be fair value and a good get for a young Diamondbacks team in need of more innings.
Here is a list of Arizona’s key acquisitions and departures this offseason:
Key Acquisitions:
- Eugenio Suárez, 3B – traded from SEA
- Eduardo Rodríguez, LHP – four years, $80 million
- Lourdes Gurriel, Jr., OF – three years, $42 million (re-signed)
- Joc Pederson, OF – one year, $12.5 milion
- Randal Grichuk, OF – one year, $1.5 million
Key Departures:
- Tommy Pham, OF – free agent
- Evan Longoria, 3B – free agent
- Dominic Fletcher, OF – traded to CHW
2024 Regular Season Preview:
After eclipsing 84 wins for the first time since 2019, the D-Backs are in a position to contend again in 2023. Because they have the unfortunate circumstance of sharing a division with one of MLB’s superpower franchises, the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Diamondbacks will likely have their eyes set on a Wild Card spot after June. Rest assured, though, the Snakes are well within the requirements of a being a team worthy of a coveted postseason spot.
Among the Diamondbacks’ strengths lie their electric outfield, headlined by 2023 Rookie of the Year and budding star Corbin Carroll, along with Alek Thomas, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
After an incredible 2023 season when he stole 54 bases, hit 25 home runs, and turned in a stellar 6.0 fWAR, Corbin is the obvious anchor at the top of the lineup for the Diamondbacks, and it is imperative that he remains there, healthy. In the outfield, he exhibits excellent range, but a weak arm inhibits his ability at times to make a difference defensively. With improved arm strength, Corbin could unlock all five tools en route to making some serious noise in the MVP chase. He will remain the heartbeat of the Diamondbacks in 2024.
Across the outfield from Carroll is young CF Alek Thomas. After his second season with over 400 plate appearances, Thomas is looking to improve in 2024. His calling card since the first half of 2022 has been his elite base-running ability, above-average defense, but lackluster hitting, similar to the overall profile of the team. In 402 PA in 2023, Thomas generated a 71 wRC+, .273 BABIP, and .230/.273/.374 slash line. He still maintains a poor approach and struggles to collect extra base hits offensively. A deeper dive uncovers the issue — too many ground balls and too little fly balls. If Thomas wants to improve his offensive profile and become a fixture in the Snakes’ outfield for years to come, he needs to improve his approach, while limiting contact on the ground through swing adjustments.
Fresh off of a three-year extension, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. rounds out the outfield unit in Arizona. 2023 was a big year for Gurriel, as he went on to post career highs in homers (24) and fWAR (2.1) all while rebounding in a big way defensively. Gurriel is certainly an underrated cog in Arizona’s operation, as he fits the D-Backs’ M.O. of maintaining excellent defense, while also providing some thump.
On the dirt lies once again a very well-rounded unit. At first base, coming off a season that garnered him some MVP votes, is Christian Walker. After slugging 33 homers and driving in 103, Walker anchors Arizona’s lineup while also providing a great glove in his sixth season with the D-Backs.
Over to Walker’s right at the keystone will likely be longtime Diamondback Ketel Marte, who is entering his age-30 season. Generally, with age comes regression in baseball, but any fears are quickly put to bed by Marte at this point in time. He is comfortably an above-average runner and a fringy defender at second. However, the bulk of Marte’s value comes from his bat. After a troubling 2022 where Marte recorded power numbers below his career norms, he rebounded this past season and turned in a productive 127 wRC+, 25 homers, and .209 ISO.
On the other side of the diamond, Marte’s double-play partner is Geraldo Perdomo. Once a fading post-hype prospect, Perdomo turned his career trajectory around with a productive year in 2023. While he didn’t provide much value slugging the ball, Perdomo was able to turn in a roughly average year offensively by the means of an excellent approach and contact ability, while providing above-average defense en route to his first career All-Star appearance. It’s anyone’s guess if his offensive profile will hold up long term, but the D-Backs look to ride the wave until Jordan Lawlar is ready to be the next long-term shortstop.
The new arrival adjacent to him at third base is none other than Eugenio Suárez. Since 2019, it has been a rollercoaster ride for Suárez, as he has gone from belting 49 homers and placing in the top 15 for MVP voting one year, then regressing back to league average the next year, and undergoing a disastrous 2021 season where he took a step back in almost every offensive category. After a trade to Seattle in 2022, however, things seem to be back on track for Suárez, as he has 7.3 fWAR the past two seasons while rebounding as one of the league’s premier defensive third basemen. What Eugenio Suárez does for the Diamondbacks in 2024 is up in the air, and hopefully, this ends with him obtaining more MVP votes by the end of it.
To wrap up the notable position players, making his second full year in the bigs is 24-year-old catcher Gabriel Moreno. All in all, his 2023 season was a success as Arizona’s primary backstop, as he posted a competitive 103 wRC+ and 1.7 fWAR, good for 12th among all 24 catchers in baseball with at least 350 PA. He’s been elite at controlling the run game thus far, and if he can tap into more power, there’s nothing stopping Moreno from being a top five catcher in the National League.
Checking off his third team in the NL gauntlet is recently signed Joc Pederson. He doesn’t fit the typical M.O. of a Diamondbacks’ team built around great defense and efficient base-running, but he provides a very necessary thump to a lineup that was one of the worst units last year in home run production. Expect Pederson to hit around 25 homers and reach base at a .350 clip from primarily the DH spot this year.
On the other side of the coin is the Diamondbacks’ pitching staff, headlined by workhorse starters Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelley, and Eduardo Rodríguez.
Just when you think Zac Gallen can’t get any better, he consistently tops the previous year’s performance. Since 2020, Gallen has ranked ninth, fifth, and third in Cy Young voting (not including 2021). Over this period, Gallen has also bucked the trend of modern starting pitchers, throwing less early in his career. Over the last three years, he has posted 121.1, 184, and 210 (2nd in MLB) innings pitched over the last three years. Similar to Carroll, Gallen’s respective unit revolves closely around him, and he is integral to the success of the Diamondbacks. With good fortune, maybe it will be Gallen’s turn to win the National League Cy Young Award this year.
Making his fifth full season with the Diamondbacks is veteran right-hander Merrill Kelly. Historically, Kelly has been rather old-school, often posting higher innings pitched totals and lower strikeout numbers, but something odd happened in 2023. En route to throwing 177.2 innings per usual, Kelly kicked his strikeout rate into a different gear, with an increase of nearly 4% up to 25.9%.
In investigating Kelly’s arsenal changes from season-to-season, his changeup’s run value skyrocketed from 1 in 2022 to 16 in 2023, good for second in baseball. Aside from a couple minor pitch shape adjustments, the biggest change with his changeup is how he utilizes it versus left- and right-handed hitters. In 2022, Kelly used the pitch against lefties 57% of the time, and now, he is going back to it over 10% more than in 2022. His changeup usage and shape will certainly be something to monitor this upcoming season.
And lastly, rounding out the bulk of the innings in the Diamondbacks’ rotation is newly acquired Eduardo Rodríguez. Given the youthful depth of the Diamondbacks’ starting pitching, Rodríguez is an excellent pick-up to help ease the burdens of Brandon Pfaadt, Ryne Nelson, and Tommy Henry. More importantly, though, Rodríguez offers a reliable third option in the rotation come playoff time, allowing Torey Lovullo more reliever flexibility with less probability of needing to employ a bullpen game.
Player to Watch #1: OF Corbin Carroll
After he took home the Rookie of the Year and started in left field for the National League in the 2023 All-Star Game, you would be hard pressed to find any expectation Carroll didn’t surpass last season. However, the past is in the past, and now it is time for him to solidify his status as the National League’s best outfielder not named Ronald Acuña Jr. I have all the confidence in Carroll in 2024, but he will likely need to make further adjustments as the season progresses as pitchers work to find any weak spot that hasn’t yet been exploited.
Player to Watch #2: SP Brandon Pfaadt
The 2023 regular season was a rocky one for Brandon Pfaadt, in which he posted an unproductive 5.72 ERA and 5.18 FIP in 96 innings. Recently ranked on MLB Pipeline’s 2023 Top 100 prospect list as the 59th-best prospect before relinquishing his status, Pfaadt has all the tools to succeed at the major league level. In 2024, if he can develop another reliable pitch to get hitters out besides his terrific sweeper, expect to see Pfaadt in the fourth spot in the starting rotation for the near future.
Player to Watch #3: RP Paul Sewald
Out with the old, and in with the new. Sorry, Mark Melancon. When the Diamondbacks acquired well-respected closer Paul Sewald at the end of July last season, the Mariners were heavily criticized for the move while still in contention for a Wild Card spot. The first indications following this trade agree with that sentiment, as Sewald helped propel the Diamondbacks in the later innings with six clutch postseason saves. How big of an impact will Sewald have on a Diamondbacks team looking to run it back again in 2024? 35 saves is the target here.
Position Group to Watch: Power Hitters
As I mentioned earlier, the area for the D-Backs that easily has the most room for improvement is on offense, particularly with power hitting. This concerns new acquisitions such as Joc Pederson, Eugenio Suárez, and other notable power threats such as Christian Walker and Corbin Carroll. Considering the team was 22nd in the majors in homers and 19th in ISO, improvements in both departments would pay huge dividends for the Snakes’ offense. That may be asking for a little too much with the additions of two run-of-the-mill sluggers, but it is a goal that is certainly within reach.
2024 Record Prediction: 87-75
All in all, I believe that the Diamondbacks have a really well-rounded team. They possess a lineup with only one obvious below-average hitter, a stable rotation that should eat innings proficiently, and an improved bullpen that should have a little less stress throughout the 2024 season. Arizona may not have as much star power when compared to other teams around the league, but they certainly have no free outs in the lineup or any pitcher where you have to hold your breath every outing. Hopefully, I don’t regret saying that.
What keeps the Diamondbacks from being a 90-win team in my honest opinion is the exceedingly competitive division they are located in. Although the new CBA allows for teams to play only 13 games per year against each division foe, seeing the Dodgers, Padres, and Giants 39 times is a gauntlet most would rather avoid. For these reasons, I have the Diamondbacks winning 87 games in 2024.
Categories: 2024 Season Preview, Articles, Season Analysis
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