Image: (Chris Sweda/Chicago Tribune)
2025 Record: 92-70 (.568 win%, 2nd in Division)
2026 Payroll: 241,842,380 (8th)
2026 Projected Top 10 Hitter WAR (Steamer):
1. 3B Alex Bregman, 3.8 fWAR, .260 AVG/.345 OBP/.439 SLG, .341 wOBA
2. CF Pete Crow-Armstrong, 3.5 fWAR, .252 AVG/.301 OBP/.451 SLG, .322 wOBA
3. 2B Nico Hoerner, 3.4 fWAR, .285 AVG/.340 OBP/.392 SLG, .321 wOBA
4. SS Dansby Swanson, 2.7 fWAR, .241 AVG/.308 OBP/.399 SLG, .308 wOBA
5. LF Ian Happ, 2.2 fWAR, .241 AVG/.339 OBP/.420 SLG, .332 wOBA
6. 1B Michael Busch, 2.2 fWAR, .248 AVG/.334 OBP/.466 SLG, .345 wOBA
7. RF Seiya Suzuki, 2.0 fWAR, .254 AVG/.335 OBP/.454 SLG, .341 wOBA
8. C Carson Kelly, 1.6 fWAR, .236 AVG/.314 OBP/.396 SLG, .311 wOBA
9. C Miguel Amaya, 0.8 fWAR, .240 AVG/.306 OBP/.391 SLG, .305 wOBA
10. UTL Matt Shaw, 0.6 fWAR, .244 AVG/.321 OBP/.407 SLG, .319 wOBA
Steamer 2025 Projected Top 5 Starting Pitcher WAR:
1. LHP Matthew Boyd, 2.2 fWAR, 3.94 ERA, 8.09 K/9, 2.71 BB/9
2. LHP Shota Imanaga, 1.9 fWAR,, 4.11 ERA, 8.17 K/9, 1.96 BB/9
3. RHP Edward Cabrera, 1.9 fWAR, 3.96 ERA, 9.57 K/9, 3.64 BB/9
4. RHP Jameson Taillon, 1.6 fWAR, 4.53 ERA, 7.01 K/9, 2.18 BB/9
5. RHP Cade Horton, 1.2 fWAR, 4.34 ERA, 7.88 K/9, 3.05 BB/9
(LHP Justin Steele will start the year on the IL: 1.3 fWAR, 3.63 ERA, 8.54 K/9, 2.54 BB/9)
2025 Projected Top 4 Relievers:
1. RHP Hunter Harvey, 0.7 fWAR, 3.35 ERA, 10.08 K/9, 2.76 BB/9
2. RHP Ben Brown, 0.7 fWAR, 3.38 ERA, 10.28 K/9, 2.77 BB/9
3. RHP Daniel Palencia, 0.5 fWAR, 3.61 ERA, 10.05 K/9, 3.69 BB/9
4. LHP Caleb Thielbar, 0.4 fWAR, 3.68ERA, 9.46 K/9, 3.23 BB/9
In Which Direction is This Team Trending?
Fresh off of their first playoff appearance since 2018, the Cubs are looking to open up a championship window following an active offseason. The Northsiders enjoyed a successful campaign in 2025 that still felt like there was more in the tank, finishing just four games above .500 in the second half, and losing in the NLDS to division-rival Milwaukee. With a re-tooled roster following the departure of Kyle Tucker, they will look to win the NL Central for the first time since the shortened 2020 season.
2025-26 Offseason Recap:
Last offseason saw Jed Hoyer land Kyle Tucker to anchor the lineup, and let him walk after a disappointing second half that saw him attempt to play through a broken hand (resulting in just a .738 OPS). With a crop of young hitters appearing to be ready to take his place, it seemed as if the main goal of the offseason was to shore up the pitching staff and rebuild the bullpen as they did before 2025.
The Cubs signed a few veteran relievers to fill the hole made with the departures of Drew Pomeranz and Brad Keller:
Phil Maton joined the squad on a two-year deal, bringing the best run-value curveball in the league in 2025 to the Northside of Chicago. Maton doesn’t have overpowering stuff, but after lowering his arm slot by five degrees in 2025, he held opponents to an average exit velocity of 84.8 MPH, and had a 98th percentile whiff rate. He will handle important setup innings in front of Daniel Palencia this season.
Jacob Webb and Hoby Milner will handle middle-relief roles for the Cubs, with Milner’s 53.8% groundball rate fitting in perfectly with the elite infield defense behind him
In contrast to the rest of the relievers signed, flamethrower Hunter Harvey offers a more traditional bullpen profile. After missing most of 2025 to injury, Harvey threw 10.2 scoreless innings with great peripherals. His four-seamer has sat back around 98 MPH this spring training, and he will look for continued success.
In the rotation, the big move of the offseason came from acquiring Edward Cabrera from the Marlins for three prospects.
Cabrera has always had electric stuff, but injuries and command have held him back throughout his career. In 2025, Cabrera cut his walk rate to about league-average, and enjoyed his best season thus far, striking out 25.8% of batters he faced, and sitting in the 74th percentile of ground ball rate. His success comes from his breaking balls and offspeed, combining to throw his changeup, curveball, and slider two-thirds of the time. Surprisingly, his fastballs held him back, with a SLG of .538 against both his four-seamer and sinker. Given the price of a top-100 prospect to acquire him, the Cubs likely have plans to reshape one or both of those pitches, and he will play an important part in the rotation if he stays healthy.
The big surprise came when Alex Bregman signed a five-year $175 million dollar deal to man the hot corner for the foreseeable future for the Cubs. Bregman doesn’t hit the ball particularly hard, but has seen consistent success throughout his career on the back of a patient approach, walking nearly as much as he strikes out, and chasing outside of the zone just 19.8% of the time. His batted ball profile also fits what the Cubs are looking for in their players with a 24.4% pulled air rate. This approach allows him (and others) to tap into more power than his exit velocities would suggest, since the shortest wall distances are down the lines. Bregman will serve as a veteran presence in the Cubs lineup, playing above-average defence at third for the time being.
2026 Regular Season Preview:
With plenty of returners from last season, the Cubs will look to repeat their success from the 2025 campaign, and dethrone the Brewers as NL Central champions.
A big part of the success this season will come from the lineup who finished 5th in the leagues in runs scored last year, led by stars like Bregman and PCA as well as some more unsung heros:
Manning first base will be one of the most underrated players in the league, Michael Busch. Busch broke out in a big way in 2025, registering a 140 WRC+, a top-ten mark in the league. Surprisingly Busch reached this success by slowing down his swing by nearly one mile-per-hour, sitting only in the 16th percentile for bat speed. The rest of his Savant is eye-popping, with a 0.378 xWOBA (95th percentile), 17.1% barrel rate (95th percentile), and 41.1% sweet-spot% (96th percentile). This combination of high exit velocities and ideal launch angles, combined with his propensity to not chase makes him a dangerous bat at the top of the order for the Cubs.
Speaking of underrated players, Nico Hoerner quietly put up a 4.8 fWAR season. The 28 year old won his second Gold Glove, putting up 15 OAA at second base, while also finishing with his best batting season of his career. Nico’s game is pure fundamentals, spraying line drives to every field and rarely swinging and missing, striking out just 7.6% of the time. In an occasionally-frustrating season for Cubs batters, Hoerner was a stabilizing force, especially in high leverage situations. He recorded a 149 WRC+ with RISP, including the best batting average in the league in such situations. He will continue to be a stable force for the Cubs in 2026.
A potential bounce back season could be coming from SS Dansby Swanson, who had a somewhat quiet output despite the best batted-ball data of his career. Swanson underperformed his expected slugging by 0.06, hit the ball hard nearly half of the time, and had a 74th percentile barrel rate. Despite career-best exit velocity numbers, he finished as a below-league-average hitter. Swanson will continue to provide value with his glove even if the bat doesn’t bounce back, but the data suggests a big season could be in the wings.
Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki (once he gets off the IL) will also add around 120 WRC+ production to contribute to one of the better lineups in the NL.
The pitching offers more questions about ceiling, but the Cubs have a plethora of high-floor arms to stabilize a staff that struggled at times last season, especially keeping the ball in the yard:
Matthew Boyd will start opening day at Wrigley Field coming off his best season yet. Boyd earned an All-Star nod, putting up a 3.65 FIP and 3.4 fWAR. The second half of the season saw his production regress however; his strikeout rate dropped, while his hard hit rate spiked from 27% to 35%. The underlying numbers don’t seem to support his incredible first half, as he’s in the 30th percentile for whiff rate while also letting up plenty of hard contact. The Cubs seem to expect top of the line performance from the 35 year old, but I’m not as convinced.
In addition, Cade Horton will look to build on his campaign that saw him garner a second-place finish in NL rookie of the year. This was largely on the back of an incredible 1.03 second-half ERA, thanks to increased confidence in his new changeup which garnered whiffs at a rate of 47.8%. Despite the incredible numbers on the surface, he perhaps got a little lucky, outperforming both his xFIP and xERA by almost a full run. Horton has unique stuff, with more cut rather than run on his four-seamer, but he will need to miss bats at a higher rate and avoid the hard contact to continue his development.
Bounce back seasons for Shota Imanaga and Jameson Taillon will also be needed for the Cubs to reach their potential.
Closing games out on the Northside will be flamethrower Daniel Palencia. Palencia throws his four-seamer 72% of the time, holding opponents to just a .216 batting average, and averaging 99.6 MPH. He mixes in a slider and splitter occasionally, striking out batters at a 28.4% clip, and missing barrels at an elite rate. He saw great success closing out games in the WBC for Venezuela, and will handle high-leverage situations as long as he continues to succeed.
The Cubs have all the pieces in place to contend, but consistency (especially from the starters) will determine whether they’re a true threat at a championship.
Player to Watch #1: CF Pete Crow-Armstrong
It was a tale of two halves in 2025 for PCA. He was a legitimate MVP candidate during the first half, reaching the fourth fastest 20 home run 20 stolen base campaign in MLB history, and having a WRC+ of 131. Once the second half hit, his performance dropped. Over the second half of the season, he only mustered six more homers, finishing with a 72 WRC+. The good news is not too much in his batted ball data dropped between the two halves.
Even with the disappointing end to his campaign, 2025 represented a massive breakout for the centerfielder. Last season saw PCA add 2.1 MPH in bat speed, the 7th largest growth from 2024. With the improved bat speed saw a massive boost in power, almost doubling his barrel% to an 81st percentile rate. Another part of his game that led to his success was an outrageous pulled air rate of 30.2%, putting him top-ten in MLB and allowing him to hit 31 home runs despite lacking elite exit velocities. This in-game power alongside his elite speed and perhaps the best fielding in the league (24 OAA) allowed him to put up 5.4 fWAR despite his inconsistency with the bat.
This inconsistency largely comes from his aggressiveness at the plate. PCA had a 60.1% swing rate, easily the highest in the league and brought up by one of the highest chase rates (41.7%). The good news is that he’s also aggressive in the zone, but a further development to his approach at the plate will raise his floor even higher, as great hitters who can play the field at an elite level are hard to come by. The Cubs clearly believe in him, agreeing to a six-year $115 million deal and buying out two free agency years, it’s now up to the young centerfielder to live up to his high expectations. If he cuts down on the chase and the power continues to play, he has MVP upside. If not he remains one of the higher variance stars in baseball, with a high floor offered by platinum glove level defense.
Player to Watch #2: DH Moises Ballesteros
The league’s 55th ranked prospect (#1 CHC) according to MLB Pipeline will break camp with the big league club this year and will hope to play a crucial role in the lineup. The 22-year-old is a pure hitter: finishing with at least a 120 OPS+ at each stop at the minors he’s had. He’s demonstrated the 60-grade hit tool given to him by fangraphs, striking out only 13.2% at AAA last season while also walking nearly 10% of the time.
Along with his elite bat-to-ball abilities, Ballesteros makes plenty of loud contact. His average exit velocity of 90.2 at AAA is higher than Kyle Tucker’s was last season, but an average launch angle of 9.1 degrees is the same as Trea Turner’s was in 2025. His time in the MLB showed why, as his attack angle (the vertical direction the bat is headed at time of contact) is just five degrees, half the league average of ten degrees. He likely has more power in the tank, as he has a large frame for just being listed at 5 ‘8, but his early experience might include more of a spray profile.
Ballesteros had a very successful September with the club with a 143 WRC+ – albeit in just a 57 at bat sample size – but he nevertheless demonstrated the same skills that made him such a highly rated prospect. He likely doesn’t have a future defensive home, as he doesn’t project superbly behind the plate, but the Cubs are hoping his bat will make him a key part of the lineup both in the future and the present. His current batted-ball profile suggests a high OBP line-drive hitter, but a future adjustment in his swing could unlock 20+ home run power.
Player to Watch #3: SP Jaxon Wiggins
Another top prospect for the Cubs, Wiggins is a bit more of a bold choice since he will start the year at AAA Iowa, but in the current league landscape pitching depth is key. The 2nd-round pick out of Arkansas has one of the best fastballs in the minor leagues, averaging 97.7 on his four-seamer and getting good action on it as well. Alongside some good secondaries, he combined to strike out 31% of batters across three minor league levels in 2025. For context, that would’ve been the third best rate in the majors among qualified starting pitchers, trailing only Tarik Skubal and Garret Crochet.
The questions surrounding Wiggins have always been health and command. Wiggins had Tommy John surgery in his draft year, and has dealt with other injuries throughout his professional career. In addition, despite his dominant stuff he walked 13.6% of batters he faced at AAA, well above any qualified starter in MLB. The good news is that command can be taught, and he made solid progress this spring, only walking 5.9% of batters he faced while still holding elite strikeout numbers.
The Cubs have an established big-league rotation, but pitching injuries are at an all time high. If Wiggins figures out his command at AAA, he can dominate either as a starter or even out of the ‘pen with his dominant fastball. Cade Horton started the year in the minors in 2025 and played a big part in the Cubs’ playoff push, Wiggins can do the same thing this year if given the opportunity.
Position Group to Watch: Starting Pitchers
As mentioned above, the starters all stand as reliable pitchers, yet none of them stand out as ace-level. If the Cubs hope to stand as a true contender, they’ll look for someone to stand out among the pack, whether Imanaga returns to his rookie-year success, Horton takes a second-year step, or Cabrera continues to build on his successful 2025.
2026 Record Prediction: 90-72
The Cubs have the players to record back-to-back 90 win seasons, I just question the upside in the rotation. I see many good arms, just no one reliably projected to handle an ace workload. The lineup is much more stable, and should place near the top of the NL. The Brewers once again shipped off star players this summer, but always seem to contend, and the Pirates finally invested in hitters, but the Cubs on paper look like the best team in the division. I’m projecting a division win, and October baseball at Wrigley Field once again, but have questions about how far the team can go.
Categories: Articles
M-SABR 
Leave a comment