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2024 Record: 95-67 (.586 win%, 1st in Division)
2025 Payroll: 278,349,284 (3rd)
Steamer 2025 Projected Top 10 Hitter WAR:
1. 1B Bryce Harper, .279 AVG/.377 OBP/.509 SLG, 4.4 fWAR
2. SS Trea Turner, .277 AVG/.326 OBP/.447 SLG, 4.2 fWAR
3. 2B Bryson Stott, .258 AVG/.326 OBP/.396 SLG, 2.7 fWAR
4. DH Kyle Schwarber, .227 AVG/.347/.476 SLG, 2.7 fWAR
5. 3B Alec Bohm, .276 AVG/.331 OBP/.431 SLG, 2.6 fWAR
6.C J.T. Realmuto, .246 AVG/.309 OBP/.416 SLG, 2.0 fWAR
7. CF Brandon Marsh, .244 AVG/.326 OBP/.402 SLG, 1.8 fWAR
8. LF Max Kepler, .244 AVG/.313 OBP/.410 SLG, 1.0 fWAR
9. CF Johan Rojas, .252 AVG/.295 OBP/.369 SLG, 0.9 fWAR
10. C Rafael Marchán, .236 AVG/.313 OBP/.361 SLG, 0.4 fWAR
Steamer 2025 Projected Top 5 Starting Pitcher WAR:
1. RHP Zack Wheeler, 198.2 IP/3.33 ERA/1.12 WHIP, 4.6 fWAR
2. RHP Aaron Nola, 187.2 IP/3.85 ERA/1.19 WHIP, 3.2 fWAR
3. LHP Cristopher Sánchez, 169.2 IP/3.48 ERA/1.25 WHIP, 3.2 fWAR
4. LHP Ranger Suárez, 167.0 IP/3.60 ERA/1.27 WHIP, 2.8 fWAR
5. LHP Jesús Luzardo, 161.1 IP/3.94 ERA/1.25 WHIP, 2.1 fWAR
Steamer 2025 Projected Top 4 Relievers:
1. LHP Matt Strahm, 67.0 IP/3.30 ERA/1.09 WHIP, 0.9 fWAR
2. RHP Orion Kerkering, 63.0 IP/3.20 ERA/1.16 WHIP, 0.8 fWAR
3. LHP José Alvarado, 60.0 IP/3.29 ERA/1.26 WHIP, 0.7 fWAR
4. LHP Tanner Banks, 68.0 IP/3.65 ERA/1.24 WHIP, 0.5 fWAR
What Does Baseball Mean to This City?
Philadelphia fans are some of the most passionate in sports, and while the city is still riding high from the Eagles’ Super Bowl victory, that doesn’t take the pressure off of the Phillies. With the Phillies recent playoff runs and the return of Red Octobers, excitement about baseball has been very high in Philadelphia.
After missing the playoffs for 11 straight years, attendance at Citizens Bank Park has taken a significant jump in the past 3 seasons since getting back to October baseball. Philly fans are known for their great passion for their teams, and with the Phillies coming up just short these past few years, they will be very disappointed with anything but a World Series title, especially with such a talented team.
In Which Direction is This Team Trending?
In 2022, Phillies fans were ecstatic just to be back in the postseason after an 11 year drought. And after an unexpected run to the World Series, fans became very excited for the future. 2023 was looking promising after taking a 3-2 series lead against the Diamondbacks in the NLCS, but ended in great frustration as the Phillies bats went cold and lost the last 2 games in Philly.
In 2024, the Phillies posted their best regular season record and first division title since 2011, but sputtered into the playoffs and lost in the NLDS to the Mets. The pressure is on the Phillies to bounce back from their disappointing finish and make another run while their core remains intact. This team is operating to win a championship, but with a powerhouse in the Dodgers and tough NL East rivals in the Braves and Mets, getting through the National League won’t be easy.
2024-25 Offseason Recap:
The Phillies bolstered their rotation by acquiring left-hander Jesús Luzardo from the Miami Marlins. The 5th spot of the rotation was a notable weakness last season, with Taijuan Walker making 15 starts in that role and posting a 7.10 ERA. Luzardo is coming off a season plagued by elbow and back issues and was only able to accumulate 66.2 innings and a 5.0 ERA. Yet, at only 27 years old, Luzardo has shown plenty of potential, especially in the 2023 season where he struck out 208 batters in 178.2 innings and had a 3.58 ERA.
The Phillies also added stability to the outfield by adding Max Kepler on a one year, $10 million deal. Kepler, who spent the first 10 years of his career in Minnesota, will likely be the Phillies’ primary left fielder. He hit a career-best 36 home runs in 2019, but since, he hasn’t been able to replicate that level of power.
If he can get some of that power back, he could provide a huge boost to the Phillies’ offense. Defensively, Kepler has consistently been among the top outfielders, ranking high in metrics like Outs Above Average and Defensive Runs Saved.
After losing relievers Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estévez in free agency, the Phillies added former Blue Jays closer Jordan Romano on a one year, $8.5 million deal. Romano only pitched only 13.2 innings last year while dealing with significant elbow issues. He had a 6.32 ERA in his limited season. The Phillies hope Romano’s elbow issues are behind him for the most part and that he is able to return to his prior form. In the three seasons prior to last season, he posted a 2.37 ERA overall and accumulated 95 total saves.
2025 Regular Season Preview:
After a very disappointing playoff performance, losing to the Mets in 4 games in the NLDS, the Phillies have brought back essentially all of their core players for 2025. With a very talented roster mostly locked in under contract, there weren’t many changes for the Phillies to make this offseason. The lineup is very good on paper, and the rotation should be one of the best in baseball this year.
This spring, there has been talk about changing the order at the top of the lineup. Schwarber has been the Phillies leadoff hitter, but manager Rob Thomson has indicated that the lineup order is fluid and that Trea Turner may take over the leadoff spot. Turner missed some time in 2024 due to a left hamstring strain, but in the games he did play, he was definitely better than he had been in his first season with the Phils.
After hitting for an uncharacteristic .266 average in 2023, he hit .295 in 2024, which is right around his career average. His wRC+ also increased significantly from 108 to 124. Turner also got his strikeout percentage down from 21.7% to 18.2%. The 21.7% strikeout rate of 2023 had been his worst since his rookie season, and played a major role in his struggles for most of the year. I expect Turner to have similar production this season as he did last season, while hopefully staying healthy throughout the year.
If Turner is leading off, the face of the franchise, Bryce Harper, will be batting second. I will talk more about Harper later as a player to watch.
The Phillies have had a lot of success with Schwarber as a leadoff man, so it is very possible that we still may see him be the primary player in that spot. Even though he doesn’t hit for a great average, he gets on base a lot because of how much he walks.
Last season, his walk rate was 15.3%, which was 3rd best in baseball, only behind superstars Juan Soto and Aaron Judge. As one of the top power hitters in baseball, he also hit 38 home runs and slugged .485. His BABIP took a significant jump from 2023 to 2024, rising from just .209 to .301. His overall average also improved significantly from .197 to .248. I wouldn’t be surprised if Schwarber’s production dipped slightly in 2025, but he is still a safe bet to hit 35+ homers if he stays healthy.
Playing the hot corner, Alec Bohm will look to replicate the start he had in 2024 again this season. Bohm was one of the best hitters in baseball to start the year, hitting .366 in the first month of the season. When the All-Star break came around, Bohm was hitting .295 and had 70 RBI’s, allowing him to make his first All-Star team.
Unfortunately, his second half did not go quite as smoothly. After slugging .482 in the first half, he slugged just .382 after the break. Bohm was even benched in Game 2 of the NLDS and was in some trade speculation over this offseason. Nonetheless, Bohm will be back with the Phillies and I expect him to have a quality year.
After a great 2023 season, Bryson Stott regressed significantly in 2024. After a slash line of .280/.329/.419 in ‘23, he went just .245/.315/.356 in ‘24. His fWAR dropped from 4.2 to 1.9 and his wRC+ dropped from 101 to 12 points below average at just 88.
It has been revealed that Stott had been playing through a nerve injury issue in his right elbow since a May game in Miami, so that may be part of the explanation for his regression. On the bright side, Stott remained a threat on the base paths, surpassing 30 steals for the second year in a row. A healthy Stott should be expected to have a bounce back season in 2025.
Catcher J.T. Realmuto, who just turned 34 on March 18th, is entering the final year of his 5 year, $115.5 million contract with the Phillies. Last season was not one of his best, where he played only 99 games due to right knee surgery in June. Realmuto posted an OPS of .751, which was his lowest since his first full season with the Marlins in 2015. The Phillies will certainly manage his workload this year as they look to keep him effective as possible and fresh for the playoffs.
Nick Castellanos, who played all 162 games in 2024, will be in right field for the Phillies. Castellanos had a very slow start last season, batting just .210 through the end of May. He slugged just .390 in the first half of the season, well below his career mark of .470. The second half went much better for him, where he hit .287 and slugged .494. Being an everyday player, the Phillies hope he can put up these kinds of numbers in 2025.
Max Kepler, playing left field, is set to be the only new regular in the Phillies lineup. If he stays healthy, he can be a great addition to the end of the Phillies lineup. Kepler has looked very comfortable with his new team so far, hitting .375 in 50 plate appearances through spring training.
With Castellanos in right and Kepler in left, Brandon Marsh will be the Phillies’ center fielder. After a career year in 2023, Marsh’s production dropped quite a bit in 2024. His OPS dropped by .82 points, from .829 to .747. Manager Rob Thomson has stated that he sees “superstar” potential in Marsh and that he wants to give him the opportunity to be an everyday player. Improving against lefties will be a key focus for Marsh, as he posted just a .552 OPS in such situations in 2024.
The Phillies rotation is spearheaded by one of the most dependable and complete pitchers in all of baseball, Zack Wheeler. Wheeler is coming off of a 2nd place Cy Young finish, the second time he has done so as a Phillie. He led the NL in WHIP (0.96), quality starts (26), and opponents’ batting average (.191) and on-base percentage.
Following Wheeler in the rotation, the Phillies have Cristopher Sánchez and Aaron Nola. The southpaw Sánchez posted a career-best 3.32 ERA in 2024. He was even able to take home National League Pitcher of the Month in June. The underlying numbers indicate that he slightly overperformed with an xERA of 3.56, so I think a slight regression in 2025 is possible. Nola put together a solid 2024 campaign, posting a 3.57 ERA after having a 4.46 ERA in 2023. Now going into his eleventh season with the Phillies, Nola will look to remain a valuable piece in the rotation.
At the back end of the rotation, we have Ranger Suárez and the new addition, Jesús Luzardo. Suárez was elite in the first half of 2024, posting a 2.76 ERA in 114 innings. The second half was a different story where he had a .311 batting average against and a 5.65 ERA. Suárez will start the season on the 15-day injured list with a back injury, which means Taijuan Walker will take his spot in the rotation for the time being.
Phillies top pitching prospect, Andrew Painter, is likely to join the Phillies rotation at some point during the season. When that happens, Thomson has said that the team would likely go to a 6-man rotation. The organization has set a target timeframe of “July-ish” for Painter to join the team.
The Phillies bullpen was very good for most of the 2024 season, finishing with a 5.8 fWAR, which was 6th in baseball. They have lost Jeff Hoffman, who was an All-Star last season, and Carlos Estévez, who was a good acquisition for the Phillies at the deadline. The bulk of the bullpen load this season is set to be handled by José Alvarado, Orion Kerkering, Matt Strahm, and Jordan Romano.
Alvarado, a hard throwing lefty, has had control issues at times, but can be very effective when throwing strikes. He has looked great this spring, striking out 20 batters through 9 innings with no runs allowed. Kerkering is someone I will talk about later as a player to watch.
Strahm was elite for the Phillies last season, posting a 1.87 ERA in 62 ⅔ innings. Romano, the newest addition to the bullpen, could possibly start the season as the Phillies primary closer, although they may opt for a closer by committee.
Player to Watch #1: 1B Bryce Harper
The Phillies’ superstar, Bryce Harper, will look to put together yet another elite season with the Phillies in 2025. In 2024, Harper won National League Player of the Month in both May and June and posted a 145 wRC+ on the season. He slugged .525, which was his best mark in that category since his MVP season in 2021. The Phillies will need Harper to have another great season, which is something they should definitely feel good about counting on. If the Phillies end up making a run in the playoffs in 2025, Harper is sure to be a big reason why.
Player to Watch #2: RHP Orion Kerkering
As a rookie in 2024, Kerkering posted a 2.29 ERA in 63 innings pitched. Kerkering had a 28.8% strikeout rate, thanks in large part to his elite sweeper, which had a whiff rate of 31.1%. With the loss of Hoffman, Kerkering will likely be taking over as the Phillies’ highest leverage right-handed arm. If he refines his command and continues to develop, Kerkering could emerge as one of the top relief pitchers in the National League, possibly pushing for an All-Star spot in 2025.
Player to Watch #3: LHP Ranger Suarez
Ranger Suarez has shown that he is capable of being an elite pitcher. He opened last season on fire, going 8-0 with a 1.37 ERA and a .171 batting average against. Beyond his stretches of regular season dominance, Suarez has consistently delivered in October, posting a 1.43 ERA over 37 ⅔ postseason innings in the last 3 years. Once he returns from injury, the Phillies will be counting on him to regain something close to his early 2024 form and provide stability in the rotation.
Position Group to Watch: Outfielders
The Phillies enter the 2025 season with some questions in the outfield. The outfield production has not been the greatest for the Phillies in recent years and it will be interesting to see if there is improvement this year. Last year, the primary outfielders were Brandon Marsh, Johan Rojas, and Nick Castellanos. This year, with the signing of Max Kepler, Marsh is set to move to center field and Rojas will no longer be an everyday player. Rojas is an elite defensive player but his struggles offensively have led to his demotion.
He has looked pretty good in spring training thus far, so it will be interesting to see if he shows improvement offensively in the opportunities he does get in 2025. Kepler will look to improve on his last season with the Twins, where he slugged just .380 in 105 games. His 2024 season was plagued with injury issues that resulted in him getting surgery to repair a partially detached abdominal muscle once his season ended. For his sake and the Phillies, hopefully he can have an effective and healthy 2025.
2025 Record Prediction: 92-70
I expect the Phillies to get close to the 95-win total they reached last season. They return a very similar lineup and they have an improved rotation with the addition of Luzardo. If they stay healthy, they should almost certainly be around 90 wins, but winning their second straight division title may be tough with heavy competition from the Braves and Mets.
Categories: 2025 Season Preview, Analysis, Articles, Season Analysis
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