Image: Michael Reaves/Getty Images
Check out my 2024 Season Preview Article for the Chicago White Sox here.
2024 Record: 41-121 (.253 win%, 5th in Division)
2024 Payroll: $133,797,547 (18th)
2024 Top 10 Players (by fWAR):
1. RHP Erick Fedde, 3.6 fWAR, 3.30 ERA, 21.2 K%, 7.2 BB%
2. LHP Garrett Crochet, 3.1 fWAR, 3.58 ERA, 35.1 K%, 5.5 BB%
3. RHP Jonathan Cannon, 1.2 fWAR, 4.49 ERA, 17.4 K%, 7.7% BB%
4. SS Paul DeJong, 1.0 fWAR, 95 wRC+, .227 AVG/.276 OBP/.427SLG
5. 2B/SS Nicky Lopez, 0.9 fWAR, 77 wRC+, .241 AVG/.312 OBP/.294 SLG
6. RHP Sean Burke, 0.8 fWAR, 1.42 ERA, 28.9 K%, 9.2 BB% (*in 4 games*)
7. RHP Davis Martin, 0.6 fWAR, 4.32 ERA, 21.4 K%, 10.5 BB%
8. CF Luis Robert Jr., 0.5 fWAR, 84 wRC+, 0.224 AVG/.278 OBP/.379 SLG
9. RHP Chris Flexen, 0.3 fWAR, 4.95 ERA, 17.4 K%, 8.9 BB%
10. RHP Prelander Berroa, 0.3 fWAR, 3.32 ERA, 31.3 K%, 15.7% BB%
M-SABR Predicted Record (60-102) vs. Actual (41-121):
If someone told me before the 2024 MLB season that the Chicago White Sox would be the worst team ever in the Modern Era of baseball, I would not believe them. We all knew that the White Sox were not going to be a competitive ball club, but to lose 121 games is completely absurd.
In my season preview for the team (and I am incredibly surprised to say this), I overestimated the White Sox by only predicting that they would lose 102 games and missed my prediction by 19 games. Even though this all seems and feels like such a shock, however, we should have seen this coming.
Before the 2024 season, we knew that the White Sox’ roster lacked the talent to win ball games. No player, except for Luís Robert Jr., was projected above a 2.0 fWAR. The club made no significant moves in the offseason to bring in talent. They also traded away Dylan Cease, their best player and ace of the pitching staff. The White Sox’ record in the 2023 season was 61-101, and despite all of these blatant and obvious downgrades and problems, I still projected the White Sox to win 60 games in 2024.
The White Sox’ record in 2024 is incredibly shocking, but, at the same time, they were expected to be one of the worst teams in baseball. At the end of the day, I think that it didn’t feel right or realistic to project a team to lose more than 100-ish games. For some reason, it felt too bold to say that the White Sox would win fewer than around 60 games. That fear or gut feeling is just completely irrational, and I should not have been so scared to make a projection about the White Sox being one of the worst teams in the MLB, even one of the worst teams in MLB history.
I think the important lesson here is that you can never be too “bold” or “outrageous” when talking about baseball because, simply put, anything can happen, and that is why we all love the game.
Regular Season Recap:
As stated before, the 2024 White Sox are the worst team in the Modern Era of baseball, and not much more has to be said to explain this season.
Offensively, the White Sox ranked last in the league for batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, on-base plus slugging percentage, home runs, runs-batted-in, hits, and runs scored. Practically, for every hitting statistic, the White Sox ranked dead last. To put things into perspective on how little the White Sox scored, their 507 runs were still 98 below the 604 scored by the next lowest-scoring Tampa Bay Rays.
On the pitching side, in the league, the White Sox ranked 28th in earned run average, 29th in walks and hits per innings pitched, and 26th for batting average against. From these team stats, it is clear that the season was a complete failure on both offense and defense.
Additionally, the fWAR for the top ten players (listed earlier in the article) clearly shows how bad this roster was in the 2024 season. No player exceeded a 4.0 fWAR, and only two players posted above a 1.2 fWAR. The fWAR of the top ten White Sox players adds up to 12.3. Aaron Judge, just by himself, almost outweighs the top ten White Sox players, with an 11.2 fWAR.
The only highlight of the White Sox’ season was Garrett Crochet’s performances on the mound. Per Baseball Savant’s 2024 MLB percentile rankings, Crochet ranked 89th percentile for pitching run value, 98th percentile for fastball run value, 91th percentile for xERA, 92nd percentile for fastball velocity, 98th percentile for K%, and 93% for whiff rate. Though his record was 6-12, the lefty is clearly talented. Crochet has an incredible fastball and a pitching arsenal to make batters consistently strike out. He ranked 7th in the MLB in strikeouts with 209 in the 2024 season.
Seeing a lefty consistently throw above 96-97 mph is rare in the MLB. Per Baseball Savant, the league average for left-handed pitchers is 93.2 mph, which crochet exceeds by nearly four mph.
The best part about Crochet is that he provided the White Sox with a blazing lefty fastball and tons of strikeouts for only $800,000 this season. The White Sox got tremendous value, considering that other pitchers in the league who had similar strikeout statistics were paid significantly more. (Yusei Kikuchi, 206 Ks – $3,387,097, Sonny Gray, 203 Ks – $10,000,000, and Michael King, 201 Ks – $3,150,000).
But, other than the success of Crochet, there was honestly not much else notable for the White Sox in 2024. What is worse is that he has already been traded away in the 2024-25 offseason.
Players We Watched #1: OF Luis Robert Jr.
As I stated in the season preview, Luis Robert Jr. is everything to this ball club and is the only sign of hope for any success for the Southside. Robert Jr. is an incredibly talented ball player with great pop, great base running, a quality glove, and approaching the prime years of his career at 27 years of age this season. He was projected by many to be the White Sox’ best player in 2024 who would produce significantly at the plate and lead the outfield on defense.
However, his season was incredibly unimpressive and disappointing. He posted a far-below-average slash line, a poor WAR, and provided little pop at the plate with 14 HR and 35 RBI. Simply put, Robert Jr. is not panning out, and White Sox fans should have no hope that he will produce in the future. He was an impressive and attractive prospect in previous years, but his injuries and poor performance have proven time and time again that he can’t produce for this ball club and should not be relied upon for the team’s success.
Player We Watched #2: IF Colson Montgomery
Montgomery had an incredibly impressive year in the Minor Leagues, playing for the Triple-A Charlotte this past season. He is also the no. 37-ranked prospect on MLB Pipeline’s list and is expected to reach the big leagues in 2025. There is no doubt about his ability to produce at the plate, as he posted a great slash line of .313 AVG/.511 OBP/.656 SLG in 2024.
However, the one area many were concerned with Montgomery’s game was his fielding and defensive capabilities. Additionally, there is a tremendous amount of pressure put on Montgomery and all of the prospects in the team’s system. If they cannot fix the problems of the White Sox, they will be in for years and years of failure. As woeful as it may seem, Montgomery and the rest of their farm system are the only hope left in this organization.
Player We Watched #3: 3B Yoán Moncada
Moncada only played 12 games for the Southside due to an injury to his left adductor in 2024. Additionally, the White Sox parted ways with him, a free agent, this offseason. Despite only playing 12 games, Moncada ranked 11th on the team for fWAR with 0.3. There is not much to say about Moncada, and the fact that he is a top fWAR player for the ball club speaks volumes about how awful the White Sox were this season.
Offseason Outlook:
Everything has gone wrong for the Chicago White Sox, and to solve these problems, a significant rebuilding effort needs to be made on and off the field. Statistically, the White Sox players are not good enough, as only three players have above a 1.0 fWAR. This ball club lacks the talent to win ball games and outplay the rest of the MLB. Additionally, a new manager is needed, new coaches, a new front office, a new general manager, a new owner… everything needs to be fixed and replaced.
The White Sox have failed across the board, and nothing will ever change if the leadership and talent on the field don’t change. That being said, this is a long-term project that needs incredible work, and no one should expect significant progress next season in 2025. And to be honest, it is hard even to picture a solution to help pull the White Sox out of their misery. However, bringing in new executives, coaches, and players is the right start to bring a new sense of life and identity to the team.
White Sox fans are used to hearing this, but they need another rebuild. Nothing before the 2025 season will be a significant move. Still, the general strategy for the White Sox is to invest in promising prospects and replace players and staff who are underperforming.
The White Sox seem already committed to this strategy by trading away Crochet to the Red Sox. In exchange for Garrett Crochet, the White Sox received Kyle Teel (no. 25 overall prospect), Braden Montgomery (no. 54 overall prospect), Chase Meidroth (CHW no. 13 prospect), and Wikelman Gonzalez (CHW no. 14 prospect).
By moving their best player, the White Sox are all-in on their future and have committed to the rebuilding process, and I would expect them to move their most valuable players for young talent. I would watch for trades involving Andrew Vaughn, Luis Robert Jr., and Andrew Benintendi. I would not expect the White Sox to spend any significant money this offseason in free agency. I would only expect them to pick up low-tier, low-salary, veteran players.
However, this problem becomes even more complex because the White Sox cannot fix this problem with money. Even though they are a big market team, it is hard to envision any player wanting to suit up for the White Sox because of their extreme lack of success and losing culture – unless they are willing to overpay for free agents significantly. Again, this means the White Sox must invest heavily in their prospects.
Making this problem even worse, the American League Central division is one of the best divisions in baseball, with the Cleveland Guardians, Kansas City Royals, and Detroit Tigers all making the playoffs in 2024 and expect to make similar appearances in 2025.
The White Sox have hit the reset button again, and the fans must simply wait for their prospects to save this franchise. As a very early prediction, I believe the White Sox will make a meager improvement to 45-117 in the 2025 MLB Season.
Categories: 2024 Season Review, Articles, Season Analysis
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