Check out Cam Cain’s 2023 Season Preview Article for the Cincinnati Reds here.

Image: Dylan Buell / Getty Images

2023 Record: 82-80 (.506 win%, 3rd in Division)

2023 Payroll: $96,327,288 (23rd)

2023 Lineup:

1. C, Tyler Stephenson, .243 AVG/.317 OBP/.378 SLG, -0.7 fWAR

2. 1B, Spencer Steer, .271 AVG/.356 OBP/.464 SLG, 2.1 fWAR

3. 2B, Jonathan India, .244 AVG/.338 OBP/.407 SLG, 1.2 fWAR

4. 3B, Nick Senzel, .236 AVG/.297 OBP/.399 SLG, -0.3 fWAR

5. SS, Elly De La Cruz, .235 AVG/.300 OBP/.410 SLG, 1.7 fWAR

6. LF, Will Benson, .275 AVG/.365 OBP/.498 SLG, 1.8 fWAR

7. CF, TJ Friedl, .279 AVG/.352 OBP/.467 SLG, 4.3 fWAR

8. RF, Jake Fraley, .256 AVG/.339 OBP/.443 SLG, 1.4 fWAR

9. DH, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, .270 AVG/.328 OBP/.477 SLG, 0.5 fWAR

10. UTL Kevin Newman, .253 AVG/.311 OBP/.364 SLG, 0.0 fWAR

2023 Rotation:

1. Graham Ashcraft, 145.2 IP / 4.76 ERA / 1.37 WHIP, 1.5 fWAR

2. Brandon Williamson, 117.0 IP / 4.46 ERA / 1.28 WHIP, 1.8 fWAR

3. Hunter Greene, 112.0 IP / 4.82 ERA / 1.42 WHIP, 1.9 fWAR

4. Andrew Abbott, 109.1 IP / 3.87 ERA / 1.32 WHIP, 2.2 fWAR

5. Luke Weaver, 97.0 IP / 6.87 ERA / 1.64 WHIP, 0.2 fWAR

2023 Top 4 Relievers:

1. Alexis Díaz, 67.1 IP / 3.07 ERA / 1.19 WHIP, 1.7 fWAR

2. Ian Gibaut, 75.2 IP / 3.33 ERA / 1.28 WHIP, 0.9 fWAR

3. Buck Farmer, 75.0 IP / 4.20 ERA / 1.16 WHIP, 0.6 fWAR

4. Lucas Sims, 61.0 IP / 3.10 ERA / 1.18 WHIP, 0.8 fWAR

Regular Season Recap:

While the anticlimactic ending left Reds fans with a bitter taste, the 2023 season represented important progression by the ball club. 

Going into the season, expectations for the Reds were far from high, pegged by many as a 90-plus loss ballclub, and an under-.500 April reinforced the misery to which Reds fans have become accustomed.

However, towards the end of April, the tides began to shift. Coming into a series against the Texas Rangers, the Reds were on a seven-game losing streak, capped by a four-game sweep at the hands of the division rival Pittsburgh Pirates. 

Going into the bottom of the ninth of game one, the Reds found themselves tied, 6-6. A lead-off walk by Jonathan India and a passed ball left a runner on second for breakout star, TJ Friedl. Friedl proceeded to deposit a Will Smith fastball into the right-field gap, giving the Reds a key walk-off win. 

Most fans, Reds fans included, wrote it off as a one-off win by a bottom-feeder, but it was far from it. To most fans’ credit, following the win, the Reds were still an 8-15 team. 

However, Reds were able to spring that win into a five-game win streak, which featured another walk-off vs. the Rangers, this time by way of a Nick Senzel two-run home run. 

Cincinnati were able to convert these moments into prolonged success, posting an incredibly impressive 42-24 (.623 win%) record between April 24th and July 6th, highlighted by an impressive twelve-game win streak from June 10th to the 23rd.

Vibes in Cincinnati were at an all-time high, and the “100-loss” Reds were leading the NL Central, having a prime opportunity to shock the world.

Wrapped around the All-Star break, the Reds had six games vs. the then-second-place Milwaukee Brewers. Six games that would prove pivotal in deciding the NL Central. 

To keep it short, it didn’t go the Reds way; five losses out of six against Milwaukee, three of which were shut-outs. It was utter domination on the part of the Brewers pitching staff.

Morale was obviously low after these two series, but the Reds were still only two games back of the Brewers, and still firmly in the NL Wild Card hunt, and a series with the Giants was next. The Reds lost the first two, bringing their current losing streak to six games. The vibes in Cincinnati, at this point, were not great.

The Reds were able to salvage the last two of the four-game series and were able to cobble together another 5-game win streak with a sweep of the fellow Wild Card contender Arizona Diamondbacks, restoring the excitement from the past couple of months.

Going into August, with the help of some Brewers’ losses, the Reds were actually back in first with a 59-50 record.

August didn’t go to plan.

It began with a six-game losing streak at the hands of the rival Cubs and bottom-feeding Nationals. The streak spiraled into a dismal 10-17 monthly record. By September 1, the Reds sat in third place, 6.5 games back in the NL Central with a 70-67 record, but Cincinnati was firmly in the NL Wild Card race, one game back of the last spot. 

The Reds started September in solid shape, going 9-6 between the 1st and the 16th, where they found themselves back in a wild card spot, tied with the Diamondbacks.  

However, maybe due to youthful inexperience, the Reds went 4-7 over the next 11 games and were officially eliminated on the penultimate day of the season, ultimately finishing with an 82-80 record.

While an ending like that will leave Reds fans heartbroken, as well as anyone who loved their exciting style of play, there’s no doubt they drastically exceeded expectations, including those of M-SABR. 

M-SABR Predicted Record (70-92) vs. Actual (82-80):

To our previous writer’s credit, Reds fan Cam Cain, no one in the baseball world had the Reds pegged as an above-.500 ballclub. In fact, M-SABR’s predicted record was on the higher side of the overall consensus. 

Nonetheless, the Reds ended the season as one of the biggest surprises of the season, even if the end was unfortunate. The Reds overperformed their Vegas projected win total by 16 games, and saw some important young player and prospect development along the way. 

Interestingly, Cam pegged the Reds’ rotation as a team strength, but it ended the season 25th in MLB with a 4.83 ERA. Lack of progression from young players, combined with injuries, left the Reds’ rotation as a major weakness, despite it being pegged as a pre-season strength. 

In the long run, the Reds just finished year two of a long rebuild, and are far ahead of schedule, with young talent still on the rise. While the result is intriguing, young player progression is paramount, and we’ve seen some serious glimpses of it in 2023. 

Surprise of the Season:

The Reds’ season as a whole has been one massive surprise, and as a result, the Reds have a multitude of “Surprise of the Season” candidates, but two really stuck out. 

Ranked as the Reds’ third best prospect and 90th-best in MLB, Matt McClain still wasn’t the Reds’ most highly touted shortstop talent, yet he was the most impactful. Called up on May 15th, McClain hit the ground running, slashing .328/.379/.516 with a 137 wRC+ over his first month in the majors. 

Unfortunately, his season was cut short in Early September due to an Oblique strain. Nonetheless, his final slash line was .290/.357/.507 with a 128 wRC+ over 89 games. He was an engine for the Reds while healthy, and his injury was likely a contributing factor to the Reds’ late-season collapse.

An incredibly unique story, TJ Friedl went from a complete afterthought to the most valuable player on a Major League ball club in seven short years. Despite having an OPS of 1.058 in his last season at the University of Nevada, Friedl somehow managed to fall out of the then-forty round 2016 MLB draft, but it wasn’t for a lack of talent.

The Reds realized the huge mistake on the part of MLB teams and swooped in to sign Friedl for a $732,500 signing bonus, the largest ever for an undrafted player. 

Friedl rose through the minor league ranks, debuting for the Reds in 2021, and while his Major League time prior to 2023 suggested Friedl was an average major leaguer, 2023 was remarkable.

Over 138 games, Friedl slashed .279/.352/.467 with a 116 wRC+ and an impressive 4.4 fWAR, the Reds’ most valuable player. Throughout the Reds’ tumultuous season, Friedl was a steady rock in Center Field and at the top of the lineup.

Players We Watched: 

Looking back at Cam’s Players to Watch in the Season Preview, there were some mixed results, most of which were poor.

Player to Watch #1: SP Hunter Greene

One of the most highly touted recent pitching prospects, Hunter Greene has struggled to establish himself in the majors but has flashed serious frontline ace potential. Despite boasting one of the most devastating fastballs in baseball, Greene was unable to parlay it into success in his rookie season. 

Despite the poor 2022, expectations for Greene were still high.

Greene unfortunately missed a large chunk of 2023 due to a hip injury, but when he was on the mound he still struggled immensely. In 112.0 innings, Greene posted a 4.82 ERA, 4.25 FIP, and 4.01 xFIP. Greene once again struggled with walks and home runs, allowing 3.86 walks and 1.53 long balls per nine. 

On a more positive note, Greene continued to flash his strikeout prowess, averaging 12.21 strikeouts per nine. 2024 will ultimately be a critical season for Greene’s development.

Player to Watch #2: SS Elly De La Cruz

One of the most highly touted prospects in MLB, Elly De La Cruz finally got his shot in the big leagues in 2023. 

“La Cocoa” took the majors by storm, slashing .325/.361/.544 with a 136 wRC+ over his first month in the big leagues. 

Beyond his impressive slash line, De La Cruz became an icon because of his incredible speed, arm strength, and absurd raw power. Between 100-mile-per-hour infield throws and beating out ground balls to first base, De La Cruz was primetime TV for sports fans. 

De La Cruz unfortunately failed to maintain his hot start, posting a dismal .191/.271/.355 slash line with a 62 wRC+ over the second half of the season. Struggles like these are expected for rookies, especially for someone who’s as young as De La Cruz.

Despite the rookie struggles, there’s virtually no doubt that De La Cruz will soon become a star, and will galvanize sports fans for years.

Player to Watch #3: SP Graham Ashcraft

Ashcraft has been one of the most interesting pitching profiles in his short major league stint. Despite possessing a triple-digit fastball, he works like a finesse, pitch-to-contact type guy. 

Before the season, Ashcraft tweaked his arsenal, and there was hope for some development with swings and misses. 

Over 26 starts, Ashcraft compiled a 4.76 ERA and 5.06 FIP in 145.2 innings. His season was unfortunately cut short in early September due to a toe issue, but he racked up a large enough sample over the season to make a conclusion.

The raw results are discouraging, and the peripherals tell the same story. Ashcraft saw a step back in xFIP, strikeout rate, walk rate, groundball rate, hard-hit rate, and barrel rate. Most concerningly, Ashcraft saw his home runs per nine jump from 0.94 to 1.42, concerning for a pitcher who relies on weak contact.

Offseason Outlook:

This off-season has the opportunity to be a pivotal one for the Reds, and there are major questions the Reds’ brass need to answer. 

Is it time to start to accelerate the rebuild? Or, do we play the long game? 

Ultimately, the Reds were ahead of schedule in 2023, and are still only in the second year of their rebuild. The Reds could easily be content to stay put in the offseason and let young players develop, but is that the right thing for Reds fans who’ve lived through misery? Should the Reds make a major splash to try and compete again, or will they be content with mediocrity at best?

If they choose to make a splash, a goal should be controllable starting pitching. After trading away Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle, and Luis Castillo, the Reds put all their faith into the development of guys like Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo, and it hasn’t necessarily succeeded yet. But ultimately, if they are serious about competing in the next couple years, another young, controllable starter is ideal. 

A trade for a starter could make sense. A player like Dylan Cease could be a fantastic option for the Reds. As for a return, the Reds could try to offload one or more of their middle-infield prospects, with the exception of Elly De La Cruz, to acquire a starter like Cease. Whether it be Noelvi Marte, Edwin Arroyo, or Matt McClain, the Reds could use one of them as a headliner for an impact starter, ideally with control.

If the Reds wanted to go the Free Agency route, there are some intriguing options. A perfect option for the Reds could be Japanese sensation, Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Coming over from NPB, Yamamoto could fit the Reds’ timeline extremely well. The competition for his signature will be difficult, with most major market MLB teams monitoring Yamamoto, but he should be a target. 

Another intriguing option could be a pair of reunions: Tyler Mahle and Michael Lorenzen. Both have been proven to have success in Cincinnati, and would be likely cheaper than the top of the pitching market. 

However, any discussion over free agency has one major roadblock: the Castelleni family. Since acquiring the team in 2006, the family has shown little interest in spending on free agents, instead keeping payroll low to generate profits. Unfortunately, all signs point to that trend continuing, so any target GM Nick Krall will need approval from ownership, which is an uphill battle.

Ultimately, the Reds offseason rests on two main questions: Does the front office accelerate the rebuild? And if yes, do the Castellenis’ pockets approve? 

What to Pay Attention to:

Ever since his debut in 2007, Joey Votto has been synonymous with the Reds franchise. Over the course of his seventeen-year career, entirely with the Reds, Votto slashed .294/.409/.511 garnering six total All-Star appearances and winning the NL MVP in 2010.

In recent years, Votto has struggled with injuries, and many have hypothesized that his career could be close to its end. 

When asked about retiring, Votto was noncommittal on his decision.

If this truly ends up being the end, Votto will go down as one of the greatest Reds of all-time, and should be a first-ballot Hall of Famer, and a player that baseball fans will forever cherish.

Categories: 2023 Season Review, Articles, Season Analysis

Tags: 2023 Season Review, Cincinnati Reds