Image: Ashley Landis / Associated Press
2022 Record: 111-51 (.685 win%, 1st in Division)
2023 Payroll: 217,612,634 (5th)
2023 Projected Lineup:
1. RF Mookie Betts, .272 AVG/.355 OBP/.494 SLG, 6.1 fWAR
2. 1B Freddie Freeman, .300 AVG/.389 OBP/.494 SLG, 5.0 fWAR
3. C Will Smith, .252 AVG/.342 OBP/.466 SLG, 4.3 fWAR
4. 3B Max Muncy, .235 AVG/.352 OBP/.438 SLG, 3.1 fWAR
5. DH J.D. Martinez, .251 AVG/.318 OBP/.434 SLG, 1.0 fWAR
6. LF David Peralta, .252 AVG/.315 OBP/.406 SLG, 1.0 fWAR
7. CF Trayce Thompson, .215 AVG/.295 OBP/.418 SLG, 1.1 fWAR
8. 2B Miguel Vargas, .259 AVG/.328 OBP/.414 SLG, 1.7 fWAR
9. SS Miguel Rojas, .256 AVG/.307 OBP/.372 SLG, 1.8 fWAR
10. UTL Chris Taylor, .227 AVG/.308 OBP/.374 SLG, 1.3 fWAR
2023 Projected Starting Rotation:
1. Julio Urias, 190.0 IP/4.04 ERA/1.23 WHIP, 2.8 fWAR
2. Clayton Kershaw, 172.0 IP/3.53 ERA/1.16 WHIP, 3.4 fWAR
3. Tony Gonsolin, 141.0 IP/4.38 ERA/1.33 WHIP, 1.3 fWAR
4. Dustin May, 128.0 IP/3.66 ERA/1.22 WHIP, 2.3 fWAR
5. Noah Syndergaard, 157.0 IP/4.83 ERA/1.35 WHIP, 1.2 fWAR
2023 Projected Top 4 Relievers:
1. Evan Phillips, 66.0 IP/3.55 ERA/1.22 WHIP, 0.7 fWAR
2. Brusdar Graterol, 62.0 IP/3.45 ERA/1.24 WHIP, 0.6 fWAR
3. Alex Vesia, 63.0 IP/3.53 ERA/1.23 WHIP, 0.5 fWAR
4. Daniel Hudson, 55.0 IP/3.76 ERA/1.19 WHIP, 0.4 fWAR
What Does Baseball Mean to Los Angeles?
These days, fans of the Dodgers have grown accustomed to 100-win seasons and division titles. Los Angeles has boasted the highest attendance in the league every year since 2012. Now riding a streak of ten straight postseason appearances, expectations have turned towards the Dodgers’ play in October. To this extent, the team has been underwhelming, winning only one championship during their current run.
Los Angeles, at this point, has built up a reputation of losing to less talented squads in the playoffs. To fans, it feels like the same story every year: run away with the division just to fall short in the postseason. This year, the team on paper doesn’t seem to live up to the juggernauts of recent seasons. If the Dodgers were to finally have a down year in 2023, would this reset expectations or would it only heighten the urgency to win another title? Only time will tell.
2022 Offseason Recap:
After countless winters of big signings and blockbuster trades, the Dodgers chose to take their foot off the gas this season. Huge contributors to the 2022 squad walked away in free agency to find success with other clubs.
This group of departures is headlined by superstar Trea Turner, who signed a massive $300 million, 11-year deal with the Phillies. Longtime fan favorites Justin Turner and Cody Bellinger also found new homes this winter, and patched-up starters Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney chose to capitalize on their Dodger production and lock up multi-year deals for AL West teams. Some other names of guys who won’t be returning to Los Angeles in 2023 are Craig Kimbrel, Joey Gallo, Edwin Rios, Chris Martin, and Tommy Kahnle.
With all these key players leaving, the Dodgers had a plethora of holes to fill this winter, and, to some, their efforts to fill these holes may seem underwhelming. On the pitching side, Los Angeles took a flier on Noah Syndergaard, just like I said they should, and re-signed Clayton Kershaw, filling out the rotation. Shelby Miller and recovering arms J.P. Feyereisen and Alex Reyes were added for depth in the bullpen as well.
Turning to the offense, the Dodgers acquired Miguel Rojas and Yonny Hernandez in order to add depth to the infield, which later turned out to be solid moves with the injury to Gavin Lux. Additionally, Los Angeles signed designated hitter J.D. Martinez to a one-year deal to fill the role left by Justin Turner and picked up David Peralta and Jason Heyward to add some much needed left-handed depth to the outfield.
Although these players have had their fair share of major league success, one can understand why it’s hard to believe that they will be able to replace the production left by guys like Anderson, Heaney, Bellinger, and the Turners. However, the Dodgers have shown year after year that they have some secret voodoo magic, so don’t be surprised if you see a couple of these guys in the All-Star game this summer.
2023 Regular Season Preview:
On paper, the Dodgers’ lineup looks much weaker than it has in previous years. However, there are still some studs here in Los Angeles, and, although the batting order is a bit top-heavy these days, this team’s offensive firepower should not go overlooked.
Starting with the position group that has remained unchanged for the fourth straight year, the catching corps will be headlined by Will Smith, who somehow has never been an all-star despite a career 129 OPS+. Smith has posted back-to-back seasons of an fWAR around 4 and seems poised for another huge offensive campaign in 2023.
Behind him is Austin Barnes, who is everything you’d want in a backup catcher. Barnes hit around league average in 2022 while providing some solid defense and pitch-calling behind the plate as well. One of the longest-tenured players on the roster, he will be looked at for leadership in the locker room.
Barring injuries, these will likely be the only two guys you see catching for Los Angeles this season. However, there is an outside chance top prospect Diego Cartaya gets the call to the majors at some point. Whether he sees the bigs or not in 2023, this is a kid you’ll want to remember going forward, as his arm and power potential could make him one of the better backstops in the league in a few years.
The infield group features another pair of returners at the corners. First baseman Freddie Freeman is coming off a fantastic debut season for Los Angeles, slashing .325/.407/.511 and leading the National League in runs, hits, doubles, and on-base percentage to name a few. This production led Freeman to earn his sixth All-Star nod and finish fourth in NL MVP voting. Expect him to perform near this level of success once again in 2023.
On the other side of the diamond is Max Muncy, whose 2022 campaign was a tale of two halves. Prior to June 15th, Muncy was one of the worst everyday players in the league, hitting an atrocious .156 and striking out at the highest clip since his first season in Los Angeles. However, as the second half of the season progressed, he began to turn things around, and a mid-season swing adjustment led him to finish with a 106 wRC+ and 2.4 fWAR on the year.
The middle infield was looking to be anchored by Gavin Lux, who had put on about fifteen pounds of muscle mass over the winter and seemed poised to take the next step in his development. However, in an early Spring Training game, Lux went down while running the bases and it was later revealed that he had torn his ACL. Thus, Los Angeles will have to get through the 2023 season without their shortstop, turning to other options.
Slated to start the majority of games at second base for the Dodgers is rookie Miguel Vargas. Vargas, who is one of my players to watch below, has arguably the biggest expectations out of any of the youngsters on the roster. In a small sample size in 2022, he was unable to produce in the bigs to the extent that he was in the minors, but the front office and coaching staff are insistent on him playing a key role for the club this summer.
Next up is Vargas’s double-play partner, Miguel Rojas. Rojas, who was once a Dodger back in 2014, was reacquired this offseason to add depth and solid defensive play to the infield. Now, with the injury to Lux, Rojas has been thrusted into a starting role. Not much should be expected from Rojas on the offensive end, as he has a career .672 OPS. However, despite now being in his mid thirties, he is still performing at an elite level defensively, finishing the 2023 season in the top ten in outs above average in the National League.
The Dodgers’ infield depth seems to be weaker than usual these days. The first in line to replace any injured player is Yonny Hernandez, who was purchased from the Athletics this offseason after bouncing around from the Rangers to Diamondbacks. Hernandez’s career numbers are nothing to write home about, but he provides some defensive versatility, which the team values.
One last infielder worth mentioning is prospect Michael Busch. Busch was one of my players to watch in last year’s edition of this article, but never got his shot in the bigs in 2022 due to a trade for Joey Gallo and being outperformed by Miguel Vargas in the minors. Nonetheless, Busch is in a much better position this year to get some major league at-bats. His ability to hit for power from the left side combined with his defensive experience at first and second base naturally draw comparisons to Max Muncy, and he will be one of the first internal bats Los Angeles will lean on if injuries or struggles arise.
In the outfield, the only position locked down is in right via superstar Mookie Betts. Betts had another sensational season in 2022, in which he finished with a 144 wRC+ and 6.6 fWAR, grabbing another gold glove as well. Betts took a trip to Driveline this offseason and came back to Spring Training and the World Baseball Classic with more muscle and an increased bat speed. Thus, don’t be surprised if Betts puts up career slugging numbers and cements himself in the MVP race once again this season.
The rest of the outfield looks to be a huge platoon based on handedness matchups and riding hot hands. Expected to get the first look in centerfield as the Cody Bellinger replacement is Trayce Thompson. Thompson was picked up last summer from the Tigers and immediately started hitting, ending the season with a .268/.364/.537 slashline. Thompson cooled off a bit once playoffs came around, and he likely won’t be able to match this production across the entire 2023 season, but his defense is solid enough to keep him in the lineup for the time being.
James Outman was originally projected to begin the 2023 campaign in the minor leagues, but forced his way onto the Opening Day roster due to a hot Spring. Outman was a force in AAA last year, slashing .292/.390/.627 and hitting for the cycle twice in one week before getting a handful of productive plate appearances for the big league club. If Outman can keep up tearing up pitching, he may quickly become the everyday guy in center for Los Angeles.
Another notable name slated to get a shot in the outfield is veteran Jason Heyward. Heyward has struggled mightily in recent years, but came into Spring Training with a revamped swing and impressed the coaching staff enough to earn a spot on the Opening Day roster. It remains to be seen whether or not Heyward can actually revitalize his career, but any success would provide quite the feel good story.
Slated to get starts in left field is David Peralta. Peralta is a familiar face for the Dodgers, having played his first eight and a half seasons for the Diamondbacks. Peralta was an above average hitter during his time in Arizona and has a career .836 OPS against right-handed pitching. His left-handed bat will look to fill the hole in the lineup left by Joey Gallo and Cody Bellinger.
Filling in the utility role for the Dodgers once again is Chris Taylor. After earning his first All-Star nod in 2021, Taylor was underwhelming in 2022, struggling to the tune of a 93 wRC+ and the highest strikeout rate of his career. Dodgers fans are hoping he can turn things around this summer, as his right-handed bat and defensive versatility will be needed more than ever.
One more guy to keep an eye on down the stretch in the outfield is Jonny DeLuca. Currently slated as Los Angeles’ 22nd ranked prospect, DeLuca finished the 2022 season with a 136 wRC+ in AA. Although he is likely still another year away from getting his shot in the bigs, his presence on the 40-man roster means there is an outside chance that he gets called up at some point in 2023 to fill in depth.
Last, but not least, in the offense is designated hitter J.D. Martinez. Martinez was signed this offseason to fill the hole left by long-time Dodger and clubhouse leader Justin Turner, who, coincidentally, left for Martinez’s former club. Martinez’s offensive production has slowed down significantly since his first couple years in Boston, but he was still an All-Star in 2022 and ended the campaign with a 117 OPS+. Martinez joined Betts and company at Driveline this winter to work on his swing in hopes that he can become an elite slugger again in 2023.
Making his first career Opening Day start for Los Angeles this season is Julio Urias. Urias established himself as the Dodgers’ ace last year, putting up career bests in ERA, WHIP, and opponent average. I give a further breakdown of Urias below in my players to watch, but all eyes will be on the young superstar as he tries to solidify himself as one of the best pitchers in the game in a contract year.
Alongside Urias in the rotation is face of the franchise Clayton Kershaw. Kersh signed another one-year deal this winter to return to the only team he’s ever played for. Only making 22 starts for the second straight season, Kershaw still dominated, ending the campaign with a 2.28 ERA, 2.57 FIP, and 0.942 WHIP. The long-time ace also checked off another box on his Hall of Fame resume, starting the All-Star game at Dodger Stadium. At this point in his career, Kershaw isn’t expected to stay healthy for the entire season, but the Dodgers would love another twenty or so productive starts.
Next in the rotation, Dustin May is a guy I’m high on for the 2023 season and the Fangraphs projections seem to agree with me, giving him the second lowest ERA and WHIP of the starters. May made his return from Tommy John surgery in late 2022 and flashed good stuff, but struggled with his command. Once a top prospect for Los Angeles, May was formerly considered the future of the Dodgers’ rotation and his electric stuff still gives him the potential to prove that this year.
After May is Tony Gonsolin, who is set to begin the season on the injured list and miss at least the first couple turns through the rotation. Gonsolin had a monster breakout in 2022, going 16-1 with a 2.14 ERA and 2.7 fWAR. His expected stats imply that he may have benefitted from some luck last season, but he was still in the top quarter of the league at limiting hard contact. If he is able to do this again, he will provide Los Angeles with another solid arm to rely on every fifth day.
Filling out the rotation is a new face to the organization in Noah Syndergaard. Syndergaard provides us with one of the more intriguing stories on the roster. After dominating hitters with velocity early in his career, injuries have taken the steam off his pitches and he has struggled as of late. Being my last player to watch below, it will be interesting to see if the Dodgers can tap into his stuff and mechanics in a similar fashion to what they did with Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney.
With Gonsolin starting the season on the injured list, Ryan Pepiot is set to take his place in the rotation. Pepiot, who is currently ranked 70th on MLB’s prospect rankings, saw time for Los Angeles last season both as a starter and reliever. His usage of a solid collection of pitches has resulted in tons of swings and misses, but his command issues have also led to a fair share of walks. If he and the Dodgers can clean this up, he may become a problem in the majors.
Another name to know for the rotation is Michael Grove. Grove, like Pepiot, saw time for the big league club last season, making seven appearances and finishing with a 4.60 ERA. As it stands currently, Grove seems to be next in line to be added to the rotation if another player were to get injured. However, as these next two guys develop, they may jump him.
Gavin Stone is a guy I’m excited to see get his shot for this Dodger ballclub. Ranked the 56th best prospect in the league, he casually struck out 168 hitters in 121.2 innings across High-A, AA, and AAA last season, ending with a 1.48 ERA in the process. He then carried that momentum into this Spring, striking out 14 of the 27 hitters he faced, not allowing a single run. When he inevitably cracks the bigs, he is going to be somebody you’ll want to watch.
Stone isn’t the only top prospect pitcher Los Angeles has on the way, as Bobby Miller is also expected to make an impact sometime this summer. Despite an unimpressive 4.25 ERA in the minors last year, Miller has an electric collection pitch arsenal, headlined by a fastball that tops out at 101 miles an hour and a plus slider and changeup. Miller seems to be the furthest away from reaching the majors out of the guys mentioned, but is still expected to earn his call-up in 2023.
Although he most likely won’t pitch for the Dodgers in 2023, it is worth mentioning that Walker Buehler is still on this team. Buehler was a Cy Young candidate before going down with his injury and now, having the second Tommy John surgery of his career, it’s feared that he may never be the same pitcher again. Buehler will surely be missed in this rotation and, hopefully for his sake, he can beat the odds and dominate again when he does eventually come back.
Los Angeles’ bullpen in 2023 is going to be run differently than in previous seasons. Without a set closer, the Dodgers are going to lean on matchups more than ever, using a collection of different arms in high leverage situations.
The first of these is Evan Phillips. Phillips, who had a career 6.68 ERA coming into last season, turned things around in 2022, putting up a historical 1.14 ERA. He wasn’t getting lucky either, as he finished in the 92nd percentile or better in every expected stat and hard hit metric. Phillips will have huge expectations of him in 2023 as he looks to spearhead this Dodger pen.
Another guy expected to get a lot of innings is Brusdar Graterol. When Graterol was first acquired by the Dodgers, many deemed him the successor to Kenley Jansen. However, Graterol has had some ups and downs and hasn’t been able to fulfill a closer role like it was originally anticipated he would. However, his 2.95 FIP and 21.8% strikeout rate in 2022 were his best as a Dodger, and he still has the stuff to develop into a premier reliever.
The premier lefty out of the pen for Los Angeles this season will be Alex Vesia. Vesia has a 192 ERA+ and 12.7 strikeouts per nine across his two seasons with the Dodgers. Specifically against lefties in 2022, he held opposing hitters to a .130 batting average and .173 wOBA. Another dominant campaign would certify Vesia as one of the premier left-handed relievers in the game.
Currently on the injured list, Daniel Hudson had a 2.22 ERA for the Dodgers last season before tearing his ACL. Since then, the veteran reliever has struggled with a variety of setbacks in his recovery and it may take longer than originally anticipated for him to get back on the mound. However, when he does get healthy, he will be thrusted into high-leverage and late game situations.
Yency Almonte was another surprise breakout reliever for the Dodgers in 2022. After alternating between spectacular and awful seasons for the Rockies, Los Angeles took a flier on him last spring and it paid dividends. In 33 games, Almonte recorded a 1.02 ERA, 3.17 FIP, and 0.792 WHIP. This summer will be Almonte’s chance to prove that last season wasn’t a fluke, and that he can be a reliable arm for the foreseeable future.
Caleb Ferguson is the only other left-handed reliever on the Opening Day roster. Ferguson has struggled with injuries throughout his big league career, including a Tommy John surgery that cost him the entire 2021 season. However, in 34.2 innings last season, he recorded a 232 ERA+. With him and Vesia being the only lefties in the pen, Ferguson will be relied on heavily by the Dodgers to begin the season.
The only new face to this Opening Day Dodger bullpen is veteran Shelby Miller. Miller, who began his career as a successful starting pitcher, has struggled mightily in recent seasons. Los Angeles took a chance on him this past winter, inking him to a one-year, $1.5 million deal. It’s fair to wonder what the Dodgers want with a guy who hasn’t had a 1+ fWAR season since 2015, but you can never count this team out with their work on pitchers.
Phil Bickford is another player to watch for this Dodger pen in 2023. After a successful 2021 in which he finished with a 2.81 ERA, Bickford took a step back last season, giving up 32 runs in about twice as many innings. Due to his struggles and the fact that he is out of minor league options, Bickford will likely be designated for assignment sooner rather than later if he can’t figure things out.
The last relief arm to make the Opening Day roster is Andre Jackson. Jackson has seen limited time in the majors in each of the last two seasons with success in a small sample size of innings. Jackson is going to fill a multi-inning role and will likely be sent down once Hudson returns from the injury list, but he will be given a chance to prove himself in the meantime.
Moving to guys who didn’t make the roster, Victor Gonzalez performed well for Los Angeles in their World Series season as well as in 2021, but didn’t pitch for them in 2022 for various reasons. Gonzalez still has the tools to be a quality major league reliever and the Dodgers’ lack of left-handed depth means he will be needed. Expect him to get some valuable innings in 2023.
Justin Bruihl is the other notable southpaw worth mentioning for this club. Bruihl has been slightly less successful than Gonzalez in his major league experience, but should still not be overlooked. This is an organization that likes to rotate around relievers and, thus, Bruihl will get his fair share of innings.
Jimmy Nelson was brought back to the Dodgers this offseason after not pitching for them since 2021 due to Tommy John surgery, when he had a 1.86 ERA in 29 innings. However, he has struggled mightily thus far in Spring Training and will begin the year on the injured list.
Also on the injured list is Blake Treinen, who will sit out the majority, if not entirety, of the season after getting shoulder surgery. Treinen has been arguably Los Angeles’ best reliever over the past few seasons, posting a 214 ERA+ and 10.6 strikeouts per nine since the beginning of 2021. If he does return, he will be a huge supplement to this Dodger pen.
Los Angeles also has some new additions who are expected to return from injuries at some point this year. The first of which is J.P. Feyereisen, who hadn’t allowed a single run in 22 appearances last season for the Rays before going down. Feyereisen isn’t expected to be back until well into the second half of 2023, but is under club control for a few more years.
Last, we have Alex Reyes, who is now the third guy in a row mentioned who is currently recovering from a shoulder surgery. Reyes, after being an All-Star for the Cardinals in 2021, didn’t pitch at all for them in 2022 due to his injury. Expected to return around the midseason break, Reyes could provide Los Angeles with another high-end arm if he can return to his pre-injury form.
Player to Watch #1: LHP Julio Urias
Urias broke out in 2022 as the Dodgers’ certified ace. Finishing with a NL lead 2.16 ERA, he spearheaded Los Angeles’ dominant rotation, earning himself a third place Cy Young finish and even some MVP votes. Behind a solid fastball-slurve combination, Urias ended the season in the 83rd percentile or better in average exit velocity, hard hit percentage, xERA, xBA, and xSLG.
Currently slated to be the Opening Day starter, all eyes will be on Urias in the Dodgers’ 2023 rotation, which now looks a bit depleted with the departures of Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney, as well as injuries to Walker Buehler and Tony Gonsolin. If he is able to repeat his success from a year ago, he will provide stability to a pitching staff that suddenly has a ton of question marks after the quiet offseason.
Player to Watch #2: 2B Miguel Vargas
There were a ton of different guys to choose from here, as the Dodgers are expected to give a lot of playing time to top prospects this year. Miguel Vargas and James Outman are two rookie hitters on the Opening Day roster and both are expected to rake, while Ryan Pepiot and Gavin Stone are going to get turns in the rotation and bring nasty stuff to the table. I chose to go with Vargas, as he looks as if he is going to get the biggest opportunity to make an impact out of this group.
Ranked 37th on the league’s top prospect list, Vargas tore through the minor leagues, slashing .304/.404/.511 in AAA last year. However, after getting his call to the bigs, he struggled, recording a 26 wRC+ in 50 plate appearances. This shouldn’t be too discouraging for Vargas, as he still has the tools that some scouts say could make him one of the best pure hitters in the league soon. He will get a chance to prove that this year, as the Dodgers are granting him the starting second base job.
Player to Watch #3: RHP Noah Syndergaard
Syndergaard is not the same player he once was when he was a youngster lighting up radar guns in Queens. His fastball, which once sat around 99 miles an hour, averaged 94.1 in 2022, and the dip in his velocity has correlated to a decrease in production. Syndergaard’s 4.43 xERA last season put him in the 26th percentile, and he was in the bottom quarter of the league in strikeout rate, fastball spin, and curve spin as well.
This past winter, Syndergaard inked a one-year $13 million deal with the Dodgers, citing their ability to revitalize the careers of starting pitchers as his reason for choosing them. If and how Los Angeles is able to do that remains to be seen, but Syndergaard still has intriguing aspects of his game they can work with. He still has good command of all five of his pitches and his sinker has a -12 run value in 2022. It will be interesting to see what the Dodgers can do with Syndergaard and whether or not he can regain at least some velocity in Los Angeles.
Position Group to Watch: The Bullpen
Due to a lack of big names and the absence of a true closer, the Dodger bullpen has been a bit underrated going into this season. However, this group could very well perform at an elite level once again in 2023 and should not be overlooked. Despite starting the season with some of their better arms on the shelf, Los Angeles has enough depth to be able to mix and match with hitters and make scoring runs late in games difficult for opposing teams.
One interesting thing to note about this group is that, with the exception of Phil Bickford, every single returning member to the Opening Day bullpen had an ERA+ above 125 last season. There are a plethora of arms here to be excited about and even more on the injured list expected to make their returns sometime this season.
Evan Phillips will be looking to continue the success of a monster season where he only allowed 8 runs in 63 innings. Alex Vesia and Brusdar Graterol have established themselves as reliable arms for this club as well. Yency Almonte and Caleb Ferguson are both making their case to become more involved in high-leverage situations. Guys like Shelby Miller, J.P. Feyereisen, and Alex Reyes shouldn’t be underestimated either. Then, to top it all off, there’s a chance we see the return of Blake Treinen to this bullpen sometime late this season too. This Dodger pen may not be ranked too highly in pre-season lists, but don’t be surprised if they finish top 3 in the league in every statistic when it’s all said and done.
2023 Record Prediction: 96-66
If you were to take the Dodgers roster and copy and paste it onto another team, I would tell you they would be lucky to get to 90 wins. This roster just has way too many question marks and the Padres loaded up this offseason. There’s no way they can win this division again, right?
Well, we’ve seen time and time again that this team has magic powers. Whether it’s converting washed up pitchers into All-Stars or bringing plus offensive production out of guys plucked from other teams’ AAA affiliates, this organization always seems to have something up their sleeve. Thus, don’t be surprised if Los Angeles figures it out and finds a way to cruise to the postseason once again.
Categories: 2023 Season Preview, Articles, Season Analysis
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