Image: Jay Biggerstaff, USA TODAY Sports
The Kansas City Royals have not made the playoffs since they won the World Series in 2015. In the last nine seasons, the Royals have only won 80 games twice and have not finished above 3rd place in the AL Central Division. During these years, the performance of this ball club has been poor and below average. And, many fans believed that the 2024 season would be another year of struggle and mediocrity for the Royals.
Nobody thought that the Royals would have a shot at making the playoffs this season. There was a consensus opinion that this ball club was full of promising talent for the future, but not quite ready to compete at a high level in 2024. The only highlight of their roster was Bobby Witt Jr., and no one else was expected to produce great numbers.
Nothing great was expected out of this 2024 Royals squad. To put it in perspective, the Royals ranked 19th in batting average and 24th in OPS in 2023. On the mound, they ranked 23rd in WHIP and 28th in ERA. With bottom tier hitting and pitching and not much talent being added this offseason, there was no logical reason to think that the Royals would be in contention in 2024. And reasonably so, in our 2024 Season Preview, we predicted that the Royals would have a 73-89 record.
But, so much has changed since Opening Day.
Kansas City currently has a record of 43-37, are third in the AL Central, and are half a game back out of a Wild Card spot. Offensively, the Royals rank 16th in batting average and 16th in OPS. Considering pitching, they rank 12th in ERA and 16th in WHIP. Additionally, they are now projected to win around 84 games and are not too heavily threatened by other ball clubs that sit below them in the Wild Card standings. The Royals are no longer a mediocre ball club but rather performing at a very high level.
Even though we have not quite hit the halfway mark on the season, I believe that the Royals will win the American League and make the World Series. Here’s why:
Elite Talent
The Royals may not have the deepest team in the league, but their stars are at the top of their game. Witt Jr. is having an incredible season and is producing amazing numbers. If the season ended today, he would be the American League batting champion, currently posting a slash line of .312/.361/.533 while contributing 12 HR, 53 RBI and 4.5 fWAR. Additionally, he is a top five American League MVP candidate across all platforms. Salvador Pérez is also excelling at the plate with a slash line of .280/.352/.462, 12 HR and 46 RBI.
Ace Cole Ragans is having a phenomenal year on the mound. In 17 starts this season, he has a 3.03 ERA, 2.54 FIP, 1.15 WHIP and 3.0 fWAR. He is also a top five American League Cy Young Award candidate across most platforms.
The Royals are definitely top-heavy. However, with three elite players (including two major award candidates), it is clear that the Royals have the star power to drive in runs and limit others’ production.
Well-Rounded Ball Club
Though the Royals are top heavy, they are still a very well-rounded ball club with a number of players who have been successful this year.
On offense, the Royals have four players hitting above league batting average (~.240), they have four batters hitting above league average for xwOBA (~0.317), and they four producing above a 100 wRC+. As I mentioned before, in the league, the Royals rank 16th in batting average and 16th for OPS. This is not the best lineup in the MLB, but it is definitely average/above average, and this team knows how to put runs on the scoreboard (they are 5th in the MLB in runs scored).
As aforementioned, this pitching staff is performing above-average, ranking 12th in ERA and 16th in WHIP. Outside of their ace Ragans, Seth Lugo has been particularly good, winning 10 games for the ball club and posting a 2.42 ERA and 2.1 fWAR. Michael Wacha has also been solid, with a 4.07 ERA and 1.4 fWAR.
Outside of Witt Jr., Pérez and Ragans, this roster lacks elite talent, but the Royals still have many above-average players to make this club competitive. When October comes, the Royals will have Ragans throwing in many of these games, and then on offense, they have Witt Jr. and Pérez absolutely killing the baseball. On top of that, they have these solid and above-average pieces that make this team even better. With this mixture of talent, the Kansas City Royals can become a very potent and formidable force in the American League.
2023 Arizona Diamondbacks Comparison
No one thought that the Arizona Diamondbacks would make the World Series in 2023 for all of the same reasons that people are counting the Kansas City Royals out of making a major run in the playoffs this season.
The year before they made their World Series run, in 2022, the Diamondbacks had an unimpressive season, finishing fourth in their division. Going into 2023, they were seen as lacking talent to win ball games in the present and that it would be years until we saw the Diamondbacks at a competitive level.
Arizona was not a very impressive squad throughout the season. Compared to the league, they ranked 14th in batting average and 17th in OPS, while finishing 20th in ERA and 19th in WHIP. And they were very top heavy, relying on rookie Corbin Carroll to carry the offense and Zac Gallen to do the same for the pitching staff. Carroll had an amazing year, winning NL Rookie of the Year and finishing 5th in NL MVP voting with a 5.4 fWAR. Gallen also finished 3rd in NL Cy Young voting with a 5.2 fWAR.
When they shocked everyone and made the playoffs, people thought they were going to lose early on due to their youth and inexperience in playoff games. The D-Backs were the #6 seed in the National League and went on to upset the #3 Brewers, #2 Dodgers, and #3 Phillies to make the World Series and ultimately lose to the Rangers.
Now, let’s compare this 2023 Arizona Diamondbacks squad to the 2024 Kansas City Royals. Both were considered non-contenders to start the season. Both are considered inexperienced and too young to win significant ball games. Both have a top heavy roster. Both have an MVP candidate. And both have a Cy Young candidate. And, the Royals are even posting better team stats and rank better in the league than last year’s D-Backs. The 2024 Royals remind me so much of the 2023 Diamondbacks, which is why I think they have the opportunity to make such a big run this year.
Also, the Diamondbacks making this huge run in the playoffs shows us that anything is possible. If you make it to October, anything can happen. We all know at this moment the Yankees are the overwhelming favorite. But, if last year taught us anything, both of the #1 seeds in the American and National League lost their first round matchup in the divisional round.
However, there is a major concern about the Royals thus far in the season…
Performance against elite teams.
Against the top 10 teams in the MLB, the Royals have a record of 12-19, good for a 38.7% win percentage. Against the top seven in the American League, the Royals have a 9-16 record, a 36% win percentage. If the Royals continue to struggle against these top teams that are bound to make the playoffs, it is a significant indication that they may struggle in the playoffs. So hopefully, as October approaches, the Royals can figure out how to beat the better teams in the league.
Even though it is early and that there are some major concerns, there is so much to like about this Royals squad and they have lots of potential to make a major and shocking run in the playoffs this October.
If the Royals do make the World Series and shock the baseball world, remember this article written all the way back in June.
M-SABR 
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