Image: Brace Hemmelgarn/Minnesota Twins/Getty Images
2023 Record: 56-106 (.346 win%, 5th in Division)
2024 Payroll: $96,083,853 (24th)
2024 Projected Lineup:
1. LF MJ Melendez, .245 AVG/.329 OBP/.446 SLG, 0.9 fWAR
2. 1B Vinnie Pasquantino, .278 AVG/.358 OBP/.484 SLG, 2.4 fWAR
3. SS Bobby Witt Jr., .277 AVG/.326 OBP/.492 SLG, 4.6 fWAR
4. C Salvador Pérez, .259 AVG/.301 OBP/.457 SLG, 1.1 fWAR
5. 2B Michael Massey, .254 AVG/.305 OBP/.416 SLG, 1.2 fWAR
6. RF Hunter Renfroe, .250 AVG/.312 OBP/.445 SLG, 0.8 fWAR
7. DH Nelson Velázquez, .238 AVG/.303 OBP/.435 SLG, 0.3 fWAR
8. 3B Maikel García, .264 AVG/.325 OBP/.371 SLG, 1.8 fWAR
9. CF Kyle Isbel, .252 AVG/.311 OBP/.402 SLG, 1.6 fWAR
10. UTL Garrett Hampson, .244 AVG/.309 OBP/.351 SLG, 0.2 fWAR
11. OF Dairon Blanco, .259 AVG/.323 OBP/.389 SLG, 0.3 fWAR
2024 Projected Starting Rotation:
1. RHP Brady Singer, 167.0 IP/4.44 ERA/1.34 WHIP, 2.2 fWAR
2. LHP Cole Ragans, 165.0 IP/4.00 ERA/1.33 WHIP, 2.5 fWAR
3. RHP Seth Lugo, 152.0 IP/4.40 ERA/1.35 WHIP, 1.8 fWAR
4. RHP Michael Wacha, 151.0 IP/4.59 ERA/1.35 WHIP, 1.5 fWAR
5. RHP Alec Marsh, 122.0 IP/4.92 ERA/1.46 WHIP, 0.7 fWAR
2024 Projected Top 4 Relievers:
1. RHP James McArthur, 66.0 IP/4.35 ERA/1.36 WHIP, 0.2 fWAR
2. LHP Will Smith, 64.0 IP/4.40 ERA/1.32 WHIP, 0.3 fWAR
3. RHP John Schreiber, 63.0 IP/4.11 ERA/1.33 WHIP, 0.4 fWAR
4. RHP Jordan Lyles, 87.0 IP/5.33 ERA/1.42 WHIP, 0.2 fWAR
What Baseball Means to Kansas City?
Kansas City was on top of the baseball world not too long ago when they won the World Series against the Mets in 2015. Since then, the Royals have not enjoyed much success. Typically, season attendance numbers are low, but in 2015, when the team was winning, Kansas City ranked in the top 10 in all of Major League Baseball in home attendance.
Kansas City may be considered a small market, but when the team is rolling, the fans will show up. Even back in 1955, when the Royals didn’t even exist yet, it was the Kansas City Athletics that were the baseball team in town, and they drew 1.2 million fans in their first year. This is a lot of people, especially considering that the seating capacity in Municipal Stadium (their home field) was only 31,000.
The Royals have been in Kansas City since 1969, and it looks like they will remain there for a long time to come, but a move to within the city may be prevalent. This could prove to be a dicey situation given that the citizens of the city would need to pay more in taxes for this move to occur.
Anyway, fans of the team are passionate about baseball, and they hope to have something to cheer about soon. In a weak American League Central, they look to build around young shortstop Bobby Witt Jr.
2023-24 Offseason Recap:
The biggest thing the Royals did this offseason was sign Bobby Witt Jr. to an 11-year, $288.7 million contract extension which could max out at 14 years and $377.7 million with options. This is the largest contract the Kansas City Royals have ever given to a player, and with many teams now locking in their younger guys, this move was not very surprising, even for a small market club.
In fact, I would say that this move was even more warranted as a small market organization as you wouldn’t want to be outbid by another team with more resources in the near future. Now, you have him locked in for the better part of his career. The only drawback of this contract would be a case of significant, career-altering injury.
The Royals added some veteran pieces this offseason, like OF Hunter Renfroe and 2B Adam Frazier to give them more depth and leadership. They also signed catchers Austin Nola and Sandy León, traded for relievers John Schreiber and Nick Anderson, signed relievers Chris Stratton and Will Smith, signed starting pitchers Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo, and Luis Cessa, and signed utility man Garrett Hampson.
All in all, the Royals made a lot of small moves this offseason to increase their depth in pretty much every position on the roster. They clearly want to improve on their record from last season, but I do believe they will sell some of these pieces at the trade deadline for prospects if they are not in contention for the postseason.
2024 Regular Season Preview:
This might be harsh, but I would not expect much from the Royals this season. It’s not a bad thing. This team has a lot of guys on the roster with potential, but those players are just not quite there yet. I believe this will be a year of growth for Kansas City and hopefully a step in the right direction for this franchise.
As mentioned before, they do now have some veteran players that fill some holes in this roster. Hunter Renfroe will most likely start in the outfield and guys like Will Smith and John Schreiber will be vital pieces in the bullpen. Maybe Salvador Pérez can muster up another solid season. The offense and relief pitching should be better this year. The starting pitching should also improve this season with the additions of Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo.
Some of the young guys on this roster may also take a step forward in 2024, possibly keeping the Royals in the hunt for longer than what people expect.
I also believe that Matt Quatraro will be more comfortable as the manager of this squad now that he is in his second year and probably has a much better handle on the clubhouse.
However, the club is not talented enough to be taken seriously as I expect their batting and pitching to rank near the bottom of the league this season. But again, as Giannis Antetokounmpo would say, “There’s no failure in sports. It’s not a failure, it’s steps to success. There’s good days, bad days. Some days you are able to be successful, some days you are not… and that’s what sports is about. You don’t always win.”
Player to Watch #1: SS Bobby Witt Jr.
The man, the myth, the legend. I’m not sure how many people have called him that, but that’s what Kansas City will need him to be for at least the next decade. This year is the start. I really like baseball because, unlike basketball, for example, one player cannot carry you throughout the season. Not even two players can carry a team as we’ve seen with the Los Angeles Angels for the past few years. The point is, the Royals are going to need more around Witt Jr. to win games.
But, before considering that, we have to think about Bobby Witt Jr. himself. He looks like he’s going to be a superstar, but he’s not there yet. He had a great season in 2023, but can he keep it going? It’s good that he doesn’t strike out much (17.4% K rate) and that he hits the ball hard (45.6% hard-hit rate), but can he increase his walk numbers (5.8% BB rate)? Can he get on base more (.319 OBP)? One year will not determine if the contract extension was worth it or not, but the shortstop does have a lot on his shoulders. In my books, the man still has a lot to prove.
Player to Watch #2: SP Cole Ragans
I like this guy’s name. Cole Ragans. Never seen a guy with the last name “Ragans.” Maybe that’s just me, but I digress. Mr. Ragans is 26 years old, has two years of Major League experience, and he will get the chance to start once again for the Kansas City Royals. After being traded from Texas to Kansas City in the Aroldis Chapman deal at last year’s deadline, Ragans looked terrific, with an ERA of 2.64 and FIP of 2.49 in 71.2 innings. He wasn’t very good in his previous 64.1 innings with Texas over the last two seasons, but he was able to flip the switch once he got to the Royals. The question is, can he keep it up? Can he be a starter for the future? I think we’ll get a good idea of that this season.
Player to Watch #3: 1B Vinnie Pasquantino
I liked the name Ragans, but the name Vinnie Pasquantino has got to be my favorite one on this team. Maybe I’m missing someone. I don’t know, but Vinnie also happens to be one of my favorite players in the game. He might not be the best fielder, but he is a great batter. I truly believe this. He’s only gotten 588 plate appearances over the last two seasons, and in that time, his walk, strikeout, and exit velocity rates are all above average. Last season, Pasquantino had to get right shoulder surgery in June, which, in turn, cost him the rest of the season. Hopefully, we get to see him on the field for the entire 2024. I think he has a real shot at being an All-Star and a key offensive piece for the Royals this year.
Position Group to Watch: Starting Rotation
The Royals ranked fourth-to-last in 2023 with a wins above average of -3.4 for their starters. Although the bullpen sees more work than ever before in today’s game, you can’t win without having at least solid starting pitching. They have a couple of young guys and a few veterans mixed into the rotation this year. It will be interesting to see if these guys can keep their offense in the game. I would also love to see some of the veterans helping out the younger starters. I think the starting pitching can be closer to league average this year, and it may set the tone for years to come.
2024 Record Prediction: 73-89
The Royals will significantly improve from last year. I predict that they will win 17 more games, which is a lot, but I have faith in the young guys, and I like the free agency pickups they made. I also believe Matt Quatraro is a smart guy. I mean, he’s from the Rays. I still believe this will prove to be a good hire.
Obviously, 73 wins will not be good enough for a playoff spot, but it will be enough to warrant attention around the league. After this season, the league will know that the Royals are coming. Kansas City may not have the best farm system, and I’m not saying the farm system doesn’t matter, but I believe the team has enough resources to make a run in the next couple of years. This season will reveal where the Royals stand.
Categories: 2024 Season Preview, Articles, Season Analysis
M-SABR 
Leave a comment