2023 Record: 82-80 (.506 win%, 3rd in Division)
2024 Payroll: $84,648,333 (26th)
2024 Projected Lineup:
1. 2B Jonathan India, .254 AVG/.348 OBP/.419 SLG, 1.4 fWAR
2. SS Elly De La Cruz, .244 AVG/.308 OBP/..439 SLG, 2.1 fWAR
3. LF Spencer Steer, .258 AVG/.340 OBP/.443 SLG, 1.8 fWAR
4. RF Jake Fraley, .249 AVG/.341 OBP/.432 SLG, 1.2 fWAR
5. 3B Jeimer Candelario, .255 AVG/.332 OBP/.455 SLG, 1.9 fWAR
6. CF Will Benson, .226 AVG/.339 OBP/..412 SLG, 1.3 fWAR
7. 1B Christian Encarnacion-Strand, .265 AVG/.325 OBP/.493 SLG, 1.5 fWAR
8. DH Nick Martini, .240 AVG/.331 OBP/.396 SLG, 0.0 fWAR
9. C Tyler Stephenson, .255 AVG/.331 OBP/.406 SLG, 1.0 fWAR
10. OF Stuart Fairchild, .229 AVG/.313 OBP/.397 SLG, 0.4 fWAR
2024 Projected Starting Rotation:
1. RHP Frankie Montas, 147.0 IP/4.53 ERA/1.32 WHIP, 2.1 fWAR
2. RHP Hunter Greene, 148.0 IP/4.27 ERA/1.21 WHIP, 2.6 fWAR
3. RHP Graham Ashcraft, 156.0 IP/4.80 ERA/1.40 WHIP, 2.2 fWAR
4. RHP Nick Martínez, 138.0 IP/4.36 ERA/1.38 WHIP, 1.8 fWAR
5. LHP Andrew Abbott, 102.0 IP/4.39 ERA/1.31 WHIP, 1.7 fWAR
2024 Projected Top 4 Relievers:
1. RHP Alexis Díaz, 68.0 IP/4.11 ERA/1.27 WHIP, 0.8 fWAR
2. RHP Emilio Págan, 66.0 IP/4.58 ERA/1.28 WHIP, 0.5 fWAR
3. RHP Lucas Sims, 64.0 IP/4.84 ERA/1.39 WHIP, 0.2 fWAR
4. LHP Brent Suter, 70.0 IP/4.64 ERA/1.43 WHIP, 0.2 fWAR
Expectations on the Rise
Last season, the Reds posted their best ticket sale numbers since 2014. This is largely due to the excitement Cincinnati fans have for the young talent making up the club’s new core. Though they still profile as a middle-of-the-pack ball club and winning is the key to bringing in fans, the flashy play of Elly De La Cruz will do so as well.
Reds fans are certainly tired of seeing their team as unable to get over the hump into the postseason. They made the playoffs in the expanded 2020 format and hadn’t made it since 2013 before that. Their last playoff win came in 2012 in the first ever Wild Card game before losing to San Francisco in the NLDS, the team which went on to win the World Series. To find the Reds’ last World Series appearance and victory, you have to go back 34 years to 1990. Though Cincinnati fans know not to grow their expectations too high for this upcoming season, excitement surrounds how the organization is building toward success in the foreseeable future.
2023-24 Offseason Recap:
The Reds lost a franchise staple in Joey Votto this past offseason. The future Hall of Famer will certainly be missed in the locker room; however, his declining bat and questionable health will not be. Despite this loss, Cincinnati’s young core group of hitters buoyed the organization towards a pitching-focused offseason.
Right-handed starter Frankie Montas had a very short 2023 with the Yankees but has a ton of upside coming into this season. It was announced the veteran will be getting the ball on Opening Day for the Reds. Nick Martínez adds a consistent arm in the rotation as well with Nick Lodolo’s health in question. Martinez has posted ERA’s in the mid-3.00s the last two seasons and will be looking to do the same with this squad. However, he will be making a transition back to being a full-time starter after opening only nine games in 2023 on the mound.
Offensively, corner infielder Jeimer Candelario brings another slugger to the lineup who can certainly drive in runs. Before being dealt to Chicago, in 99 games with the Nationals, he posted 53 RBIs in a breakout first half. At first, the addition of Candelario to the infield seemed strange, given the depth the organization already had. However, losses of top prospect Noelvi Marte (80-game PED suspension) and breakout star Matt McLain (shoulder injury) justify the signing. Additionally, outfielder TJ Friedl is to miss extended time with a wrist fracture. Despite the promise of this young squad, injuries are already beginning to pile up.
Key Acquisitions:
- Jeimer Candelario, 1B/3B – three years, $45 million
- Frankie Montas, RHP – one year, $16 million
- Nick Martínez, RHP – two years, $26 million
- Brent Suter, LHP – two years, $6.2 million
- Emilio Págan, RHP – two years, $16 million
- Santiago Espinal, INF – traded from TOR
Key Departures:
- Joey Votto, 1B – one year, $2 million with TOR
- Hunter Renfroe, RF – two years, $13 million with KC
- Harrison Bader, OF – one year, $10.5 million with NYM
- Nick Senzel, UTL – one year, $2 million with WAS
- Derek Law, RHP – signed minor league contract with WAS
- Daniel Duarte, RHP – claimed off waivers by MIN
2024 Regular Season Preview:
The analysts and sports books are fairly low on the Cincinnati Reds coming into the 2024 baseball season. Currently, Vegas has them as the third favorite to win the NL Central and the first team to be left out of the playoff party. However, I am here to tell you why there should be some more optimism coming into this season. The Reds made a giant leap forward in 2023, winning 20 more games than the previous season. I believe the momentum will continue with their slightly rearranged lineup and new pitching additions.
First off, the Reds have one of the most exciting players in baseball in Elly De La Cruz. While Elly’s .300 OBP may not have been what the Reds were looking for exactly, he was certainly able to drive in runs and fly around the bases. Elly is just getting used to the MLB and could be poised for a far better sophomore season.
The Reds will be rolling out Jonathan India at second base, a former Rookie of the Year who missed some time last season. He can certainly bring positive numbers to the table if healthy. Other young lineup options include Spencer Steer, Will Benson, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and Tyler Stephenson. Options like Nick Martini and Stuart Fairchild are also likely to see more time due to the unfortunate losses of Marte and McLain.
The Reds’ President of Baseball Operations Nick Krall has built a young nucleus of talent for the organization to build around in the future. Also, rather than jumping the gun and signing long, expensive contracts, the team has grown its nucleus and signed guys who are on prove-it now contracts. This particularly includes Montas on a one-year deal coming off an injury.
If the Reds can put together a strong first half of the season, then they could be in serious contention for a guy like Shane Bieber. This will be a priority if the team is off to a solid start given their staff had the sixth-highest ERA in the majors at 4.83 a year ago.
At the top of the pitching staff, a guy like Hunter Greene has the potential to win Cy Young Awards. After coming into the league as a top prospect, the 24-year-old has posted a combined 4.62 ERA over his first two seasons. If the Reds are going to make another leap, Greene will have to as well.
The Reds season looks as if it could go one of two ways. They could continue on the momentum of the previous season by relying on their young core and making some mid-season moves. Or, the team will significantly regress due to pitching inconsistency.
Player to Watch #1: SS Elly De La Cruz
There is a lot to be excited about watching Elly De La Cruz play baseball. Elly has the potential to be a five-tool player at shortstop and take over the game with his wheels. Elly didn’t have the strongest finish to the season last year but will be looking to improve upon his impressive rookie year. Be on the lookout for a lot of velocity off his bat and in the field.
Player to Watch #2: RHP Frankie Montas
Frankie Montas is someone who could benefit this squad dramatically. By simply looking at the names on the roster, you can tell that pitching has the potential to be a problem for this team. If Montas is able to be a steady arm in the middle of the rotation, it will ease the pressure off the rest of the staff.
Player to Watch #3: LF Spencer Steer
Spencer Steer put up impressive numbers during his first full season in the majors. Steer is a guy who has the potential to drive in 100+ runs and become an All-Star.
Position Group to Watch: RHP Nick Martínez
Nick Martínez is slated to be a key component in the Reds starting rotation due to Nick Lodolo’s questionable health. He adds another steady arm every fifth day with the potential to break out.
2024 Record Prediction: 84-78
The Reds should not be projected to win the NL Central; however, I believe that they will build on last year and give the Cubs and Cardinals some tough competition at the top of the NL Central. Last Season, the Reds were able to stay close to .500 against both clubs. In 2024, they could definitely come out on top in the end.
Bold Prediction: Nick Martínez ends the season with the best ERA in the starting rotation.
Categories: 2024 Season Preview, Articles, Season Analysis
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