2023 Record: 83-79 (.512 win%, 2nd in Division)
2024 Payroll: $215,480,000 (8th)
2024 Projected Lineup:
1. 2B Nico Hoerner, .278 AVG/.338 OBP/.398 SLG, 3.7 fWAR
2. RF Seiya Suzuki, .268 AVG/.349 OBP/.469 SLG, 2.4 fWAR
3. CF Cody Bellinger, .263 AVG/.325 OBP/.447 SLG, 2.6 fWAR
4. LF Ian Happ, .250 AVG/.345 OBP/.433 SLG, 2.9 fWAR
5. SS Dansby Swanson, .252 AVG/.323 OBP/.424 SLG, 3.7 fWAR
6. 3B Christopher Morel, .243 AVG/.311 OBP/.466 SLG, 1.6 fWAR
7. 1B Michael Busch, .243 AVG/.325 OBP/.428 SLG, 1.0 fWAR
8. DH Mike Tauchman, .238 AVG/.340 OBP/.365 SLG, 0.8 fWAR
9. C Yan Gomes, .251 AVG/.297 OBP/.394 SLG, 0.9 fWAR
10. UTL Patrick Wisdom, .210 AVG/.296 OBP/.445 SLG, 0.8 fWAR
2024 Projected Starting Rotation:
1. LHP Justin Steele, 177.0 IP/3.67 ERA/1.25 WHIP, 3.2 fWAR
2. LHP Shota Imanaga, 169.0 IP/3.70 ERA/1.21 WHIP, 3.4 fWAR
3. RHP Kyle Hendricks, 152.0 IP/4.60 ERA/1.33 WHIP, 1.6 fWAR
4. LHP Jordan Wicks, 119.0 IP/4.39 ERA/1.35 WHIP, 1.2 fWAR
5. RHP Hayden Wesneski, 68.0 IP/4.44 ERA/1.32 WHIP, 0.5 fWAR
Note – SP Jameson Taillon projected to start the year on the IL: 141 IP/4.52 ERA/1.28 WHIP, 1.6 fWAR
Note – Drew Smyly could take the 5th starter job to open the year, but it is unlikely they carry four LHP in the rotation.
2024 Projected Top 4 Relievers:
1. RHP Adbert Alzolay, 67.0 IP/3.69 ERA/1.16 WHIP, 0.9 fWAR
2. RHP Héctor Neris, 70.0 IP/4.01 ERA/1.26 WHIP, 0.7 fWAR
3. RHP Julian Merryweather, 63.0 IP/3.76 ERA/1.26 WHIP, 0.8 fWAR
4. RHP Mark Leiter Jr., 62.0 IP/4.09 ERA/1.27 WHIP, 0.2 fWAR
What Baseball Means to the Northside?
The lovable losers are trying to work their way back towards the playoffs for the first time since the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, and for the first time since their fire sale at the 2021 trade deadline that saw Jed Hoyer deal away Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, and Javy Báez, key parts of the 2016 World Series core.
The fanbase is much more impatient in recent years, hoping for big moves to work quickly through the rebuilding process, and Hoyer has obliged for the most part. The Cubs have picked up Seiya Suzuki, Jamison Taillon, Dansby Swanson, Cody Bellinger, and more in free agency to build a solid core for a hopeful contender.
Although Cubs fans will show out to Wrigley no matter the state of the team, this seems to be a make or break year for the club. The Cubs barely missed the playoffs last year following a cold September, but the division is as weak as it could be with question marks surrounding the Cardinals and the Brewers seemingly entering a fire sale. If they fail to take advantage, fans could be frustrated, especially with how slow the offseason went compared to expectations.
Even if the Cubs fail to make the playoffs, however, their big strength is one of the best farm systems in MLB, and definitely their best since before the 2015 season which eventually led to the Cubs’ first World Series win in 108 years. A key difference with their 2024 system is higher profile arms in the farm which was missing with the 2015 core, a big reason why that team didn’t turn into a dynasty despite many young lineup pieces.
2023-24 Offseason Recap:
The offseason started hot with the team swooping in to sign Craig Counsell out of nowhere to the largest managerial contract ever. This signaled to fans that the Ricketts would be willing to spend, and with rumors swirling about Ohtani and other big name free agents, expectations were sky high.
Despite the fast start, it would take the Cubs two months to make their big move. In early December, they acquired their big name starter, signing lefty Shota Imanaga to a four-year deal. Though they missed out on the big names they were connected to early on, Imanaga is a solid consolation prize, looking to be a good 2/3 starter.
Four days later, Hoyer swung a deal with the Dodgers for power-hitting corner infielder Michael Busch and bullpen depth in Yency Almonte. It came at the price of a couple young, high-upside talents (Jackson Ferris & Zyhir Hope), but with the influx of quality arms at the top of their farm system, the Cubs could afford to part ways with Ferris in particular. Busch can bring much needed power to the lineup and playing time that he wouldn’t otherwise be able to get with the Dodgers.
As February rolled along, fans were getting impatient, particularly with Cody Bellinger going unsigned to that point. Hoyer and Scott Boras were at a standstill. During the wait, the Cubs picked up a solid addition Héctor Neris, hoping to improve the inconsistent performance of the ‘pen from 2023.
Late into February at 2am, Cubs fans finally got the news they were waiting for, Cody Bellinger had re-signed with the club for 3 years, $80 million. This would be another pillow contract for Bellinger who failed to get the long term deal he was hoping for, thought he does have another opt out after this season if he wants to test the market once again. This was a win-win contract for both parties. The Cubs won’t have Bellinger locked up with top prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong knocking on the door to the majors, and the star outfielder will get a chance to test free agency once again if he can repeat his production from last season.
Key Acquisitions:
- Shota Imanaga, LHP – four years, $53 million
- Michael Busch, DH/1B – traded from LAD
- Yency Almonte, RHP – traded from LAD
- Héctor Neris, RHP – one year, $9 million
- Cody Bellinger CF/1B – three years, $80 million (re-signed)
Key Departures:
- Marcus Stroman, RHP – two years, $37 million with NYY
- Michael Fulmer, RHP – two years, 1.5 million with BOS
- Jeimer Candelario, 3B (acquired at 2023 trade deadline) – three years, $45 million with CIN
- Brad Boxberger, RHP – one year, $2.8 million with TBR
2024 Regular Season Preview:
Despite a worse offseason compared to expectations, the Cubs roster still projects to contend in the NL Central, a division with plenty of uncertainties. They finished one game out of the playoffs last year and will look to actually finish the job this season.
The Central could really go any way in 2024, with the Cardinals potentially returning to pre-2023 form, the Reds making plenty of offseason moves, and the Brewers treading water after signing Rhys Hoskins despite trading Corbin Burnes away.
The core of this Cubs lineup has stayed the same, hoping to replicate their top 10 2023 finish by OPS. The key difference is adding Michael Busch, hoping to have a reliable hitter at first base when Belli patrols center field. Last year, first base was a lacking position for the Cubs, rotating through a few below average bats (Trey Mancini, Eric Hosmer, etc.) before trading for Jeimer Candelario at the deadline as a rental.
Additionally, the Cubs are hoping that Christopher Morel will be able to man the hot corner this season. For Morel, there is no question with the bat. He hit 26 home runs last season with a 116 OPS+, but performed much better or far worse at times as he has a tendency to get streaky. He can play all over the diamond, without a position he really excels at; with Morel’s rocket arm, however, Counsell hopes he can fill a third base position that was mostly manned by the sub-standard Nick Madrigal and Patrick Wisdom in 2023. If Morel can improve his glove, he will add to an already solid infield headlined by two of the best defenders in baseball, Nico Hoerner and Dansby Swanson.
Both Hoerner and Swanson collected over 15 outs above average and finished with an above-average WRC+, but both have some space to improve in that regard. Swanson is already a 4+ WAR player, but if he can find his 2022 form at the plate again, particularly improving his performance on the road (87 WRC+ in 2023), this lineup will look much more solid.
Wrapping up the position players, this is a key season for Cody Bellinger. He had a resurgent year in 2023 thanks to an improved approach at the plate, focusing more on cutting down whiffs at the sacrifice of some power. Bellinger dropped his K% to 15.6% but surprisingly still slugged at a solid rate. This is where some questions arise. Bellinger finished in the bottom 10% of the league in hard hit rate last season and was one of the luckiest hitters in the league, greatly outperforming his expected slugging numbers. He still profiles as a plus bat, but it remains to be seen if he will repeat his 134 WRC+ from last season.
As for the pitching staff, the starters are led by a couple of high-profile lefties, and the bullpen looks to be better with the addition of Héctor Neris.
Justin Steele broke out in a big way in 2023, finishing in the top five of NL Cy Young voting with a 3.06 ERA in 173 IP, with over 9.0 K/9. Steele is a unique starter in the league as he only relies on two pitches, his “Mississippi fastball” and a slider. The fastball, despite sitting around 92 MPH, performed exceptionally well last year and was a big reason for his success. He has drawn plenty of comparisons to fan favorite Jon Lester and will hope to continue his success in 2024.
Behind Steele is Shota Imanaga, the “throwing philosopher” coming over to MLB after eight seasons in NPB. The 30-year-old had a great career in Japan and will look to replicate his success with the Cubs. He has a solid pitch mix headlined by a high spin fastball and a nasty splitter common of Japanese arms. His only issue could be the home run ball, after allowing 17 in his last NPB season, second-most in the league. Moving to hitter-friendly Wrigley Field could require Imanaga to change his approach in some situations.
The rest of the Cubs rotation isn’t much to write home about. They’ll hope for a bounce back season from Kyle Hendricks and Jamison Taillon once healthy, but young depth could play a big role in the back half of the rotation. Guys like Jordan Wicks, Hayden Wesneski, Javier Assad, Caleb Kilian, Ben Brown, and eventually top prospect Cade Horton could contribute to this rotation if filling in for injury or underperformance.
Player to Watch #1: RF Seiya Suzuki
Although his season was largely remembered for a dropped fly ball against the Braves that lost the Cubs a game, the team wouldn’t have been that close to the playoffs without Seiya. After David Ross made the choice to bench Suzuki for a couple games in August, the outfielder was one of the best hitters in MLB, putting up a .938 OPS in the second half. This was great progression to see in his second season with the Cubs and was backed up by a lot of red on his Baseball Savant page, finishing above the 70th percentile in seven hitting categories. If he keeps up the production with the bat he’s shown in spring training and continues his progression in the field (-4OAA in 2022 –> 2OAA in 2023), Seiya could find himself on an All-Star team as a key part of the Cubs.
Player to Watch #2: Christopher Morel
Over his two seasons in the bigs, Morel has already become a fan favorite in Chicago. His big pop and passion on the field (and his swing and miss) remind many of Javier Báez, bringing smiles and lots of homers to the Cubs lineup. Morel hits the ball as hard as anyone in baseball, and a full season in the bigs this year could result in a 30+ homer season. The true question, however, comes with his defense. Morel will start the year at 3B following an offseason of trade rumors, and Counsell hopes he’ll find a home there. Keeping Morel’s bat in the lineup without locking up the DH spot will be important for the team, especially after the addition of Michael Busch.
Player to Watch #3: Ben Brown
A prospect acquired for David Robertson at the 2022 deadline in the middle of a breakout season, Brown continued that upward trend in the Cubs system. This may be a hot take since Brown will start the year in the minors, but the upside is there. Placed as the 11th-best Cubs prospect per MLB Pipeline, he would likely be ranked higher if not for a rough go of things at AAA last season that resulted with him ending the year in the bullpen. Brown had an uncharacteristic drop in command, walking six batter per nine innings, but the stuff was still there. Brown struck out 31% of batters at AAA thanks to a 60-grade fastball and breaking ball.
Although he’s still a SP prospect, I see a lot of Adbert Alzolay in Brown. Alzolay was a starter with control issues and plus stuff before being moved to the bullpen and thriving. The difference is that I doubt Brown will have the same transition from four-seamer to sinker. Nonetheless, I could see the move happening, and he could make an impact at the big league level in the bullpen.
Position Group to Watch: Catchers
The Cubs will rely on two catchers for the 2024 season, Yan Gomes and Miguel Amaya. Both are similar batters, sitting around a 95 WRC+ last year and hitting better against lefties (though Gomes has the edge in that regard). They also both have their advantages behind the plate, with Gomes as a better blocker and Amaya as a plus pitch framer. The main thing to watch here is if one catcher pulls away from the other, particularly if Amaya takes the next step and live up to his hype as a top prospect.
2024 Record Prediction: 85-77
I see a slight improvement for the Cubs in 2024 and expect them to be firmly in the wild card/division chase for the entire year. As a Cubs fan, I just fear that they didn’t improve enough to pull away from the rest of the crowd in the division, with an absence of quantity in additions and returning mostly the same core. I’m remaining optimistic that they’ll pull out a wild card appearance even if they don’t win the division. The talent is there for a playoff push, and in my eyes it depends on if the Cardinals return to form this season.
Additionally, with the strength and depth of the farm system, the Cubs could be very active at the trade deadline if they are within striking distance of a playoff spot. Overall, this is a team on the rise, and even if it’s not this year, they’ll be back in the playoffs with another solid core before you know it.
Categories: 2024 Season Preview, Articles, Season Analysis
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