2025 MLB Season Review: New York Yankees

Check out my 2025 Season Preview Article for the Yankees here.

Image: (Al Bello/Getty Images)

2025 Record: 94-68 (.580 win%, 2nd in Division)

2025 Payroll: $304,091,683 (4^th)

2025 Top 10 Players (by fWAR):

1. RF Aaron Judge, 10.1 fWAR, 204 wRC+, .331 AVG/.457 OBP/.688 SLG

2. LF/CF Cody Bellinger, 4.9 fWAR, 125 wRC+, .272 AVG/.334 OBP/.480 SLG

3. SP Max Fried, 4.6 fWAR, 2.86 ERA, 8.71 K/9, 2.35 BB/9

4. SP Carlos Rodón, 4.5 fWAR 3.09 ERA, 9.35 K/9, 3.36 BB/9

5. 2B Jazz Chisholm Jr., 4.4 fWAR, 126 wRC+, .242 AVG/.332 OBP/.481 SLG

6. CF Trent Grisham, 3.2 fWAR, 129 wRC+, .235 AVG/.348 OBP/.464 SLG

7. 1B/C Ben Rice, 3.0 fWAR, 133 wRC+, .255 AVG/.337 OBP/.499 SLG

8. C Austin Wells, 3.0 fWAR, 94 wRC+, .219 AVG/.275 OBP/.436 SLG

9. SP Cam Schlittler, 2.1 fWAR, 2.96 ERA, 10.36 K/9, 3.82 BB/9

10. DH Giancarlo Stanton, 1.9 fWAR, 158 wRC+, .273 AVG/.350 OBP/.594 SLG

M-SABR Predicted Record (90-72) vs. Actual (94-68):

As it turns out, my preseason prediction was mostly on-point.  I must admit that the torrent of Yankee-bashing last offseason influenced my prediction to some degree. Prevailing sentiment said that the offensive production would drop off without Juan Soto, yet my stance was that the Yankees’ new additions lengthened and diversified the lineup – as the Moneyball saying goes, creating Soto in the aggregate. I was initially going to give them a couple more wins to put them at ~92 and ended up dropping that to 90, but even still they slightly surpassed my expectations. The offense scored the most runs by a decent margin, the rotation put up a solid performance, and they contended as a top 1-3 team in the AL. 

My pessimism largely lied not with their regular season potential, but in their playoff chances without the steadying presence of Gerrit Cole and a Judge-Soto-Stanton trio.  This eventually manifested itself in the Yankees’ demise. 

Regular Season Recap:

This season’s arc was yet another strange déjà vu. The Yankees followed a similar trajectory as many of the ones in the recent past: a hot start, followed by a summer swoon where they appear dead in the water, a September stabilization, and an invariable postseason disappointment. 

The Yankees’ penchant for collapse under Aaron Boone has become more than a worrying trend. In modern baseball, it is difficult to discern the true impact of a manager, but one theory of estimation is looking at how a team responds to poor performance. While slumps are inevitable for all teams, responsiveness to these slumps are more measurable, and for the Yankees, these slumps have spiraled, nearly leading to the destruction of the season. 

In 2022, they went 64-28 in the first half and dropped to 35-35 in the second half (while playing to a .357 winning percentage in August). In 2023, their record going into June was 35-24. They ended the year 82-80, playing under .500 for every remaining month except September. In 2024, they went into June 40-19, and then hovered around .500 for the next three months until September arrived. This year was more of the same: they excelled for every month of the year except for June and July, where they played to a .480 winning percentage. It is unlikely that the Yankees are the only team that this happens to, but for the past few years, these spirals have become a consistent, clearly demarcated trend.

What can this be ascribed to? Is it the mentality of the leadership? By all accounts, the clubhouse adores Aaron Boone and Aaron Judge. Rumors of clubhouse fractures or egotism occasionally seen with other teams are never present with this current Yankees team. 

Part of it may lie in the Yankees’ steadfast loyalty to their players, which likely plays a part in the reciprocated loyalty that Aaron Boone has earned from his players. They were slow to make some changes that many were slamming the table for, including the release of DJ LeMahieu and Jazz Chisholm’s return to second base, removing Devin Willaims from high leverage scenarios when he was clearly mentally compromised, and benching Anthony Volpe in favor of Jose Caballero. To his credit Boone himself has admitted that he was slow on some of these. 

The perceived lack of urgency led to losses, only one of which ended up being the difference between winning the division and homefield advantage throughout the playoffs and having to play in the Wild Card round. This “missed opportunities” statement can be said for any team, but the point that games in June have the same weight on the final record as those in September remains. 

The trade deadline on paper was a massive success for the Yankees.  The acquisitions of David Bednar, Camilo Doval, Jose Caballero and Ryan McMahon all addressed needs with good players without giving up too much in return. Catcher Rafael Flores was the best prospect they relinquished, and it was in exchange for Bednar. 

Thus, the deadline was poised to be the spark to coax them out of their summer malaise. But the very first game after the trade deadline, the Yankees pulled off one of the most astounding losses one will ever witness in a 13-12 game against the Marlins. The cherry on top was that every single player they had traded for the day prior was instrumental in the collapse. It was a foreboding omen of both the promise and disappointment that was to come. 

New York Yankees vs Miami Marlins – FULL GAME HIGHLIGHTS | August 1, 2025 MLB Season

Frustrations notwithstanding, this Yankees season was also filled with positive developments, possibly more so than previous years. Included in this category is the surprise season of Trent Grisham, who came into the season as the fourth outfielder but worked his way into the starting lineup consistently. He ended the season with 34 home runs, remarkable for a player who had been a fringe starter for most of his time in the big leagues. In June 2024 he altered his stance to be slightly more open, and since then, he has seen a dramatic uptick in both power and contact. 

Cody Bellinger also returned a season better than his previous one (4.9 fWAR), acting as a stabilizing force in the lineup for much of the year. His adaptive plate approach proved to be a large boon to the Yankees, diversifying a generally whiff-prone lineup with someone who can make contact and extend at-bats. I went more in depth about Bellinger’s approach here. Grisham was just brought back on the 1 year, $22 million qualifying offer, but Bellinger declined his option and is now a free agent. 

On the pitching front, Carlos Rodón reinvented himself, integrating a new sinker that revitalized the rest of his repertoire. His year-end 3.09 ERA and 1.05 WHIP was a culmination of his evolution from a flamethrower, fastball-slider pitcher to a complete pitcher, one who can both overpower and also deceive a batter. He was one of the biggest X-factors heading into the season, especially considering that Max Fried and Will Warren generally pitched to expectations.

Most promising was the emergence of Cam Schlittler down the stretch after being called up in July. He added much-needed overpowering velocity for the Yankees and continued to get better as the season progressed, and proceeded to end the season of his hometown Boston Red Sox in embarrassing fashion. His 2025 season has had Yankee fans salivating over his potential heading into next year, especially considering the regression of Luis Gil and the uncertainties around the returns of Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodòn. 

The bullpen, while projected to be a strength (especially the back-end of Luke Weaver and Devin Williams) turned out to be inconsistent. Devin Williams, while his underlying numbers stayed mostly the same, dealt with frequent meltdowns in important situations, and Luke Weaver faltered at the end of the season. Other factors like Fernando Cruz and Jonathan Loaisiga were a mixed bag. 

The lineup actually improved this year, led once again by Aaron Judge. The more surprising stories involved the supporting cast, though: Giancarlo Stanton returned from injury midway through the year looking like his 2017 MVP self, while Jazz Chisholm and the aforementioned Grisham and Bellinger all had 2025s that were a step up from their 2024. This led to a much deeper lineup than the top heavy Judge-Soto combo of 2024, hence the result: the Yankees led the league with 274 home runs (next closest: Dodgers with 244) and a 119 wRC+ (next closest: Dodgers with 113). 

The homegrown offensive youth such as Austin Wells, Anthony Volpe, and Jasson Dominguez all underperformed in the batter’s box, prompting speculation about their status for next year. Upgrading any of these positions, especially shortstop, could propel this team even further, yet the Yankees still seem to believe that these players will develop, and do not want to stunt their growth by acquiring someone to block them. A right-handed platoon catcher would be useful to give Austin Wells a break behind the plate, though. Volpe has been unable to capture a balance of both power and contact, leading to zero offensive growth over his first three seasons. 

Players We Watched: 

Player to Watch #1: RF, Aaron Judge. 

Is there anything more that can be said about Aaron Judge? The now 3-time (should be 4-time) MVP turned out another unreal season, hitting .400 through the first couple months of the season and hitting 50+ home runs once again. He is the engine of this team, and seems to be always improving no matter how mind-boggling his previous season was. Although his age is climbing, I have no doubts that he will stay his dominant self. 

He disabused the notion that he was a playoff dropper this year as well, getting the monkey off his back by hitting .500 in the postseason. The rest of the lineup may have let him down, but he at least has something to be proud of.  He is now, in my estimation, the greatest right handed hitter of all time, and is debatably having the best offensive peak of all time, considering the steroid usage of Bonds and McGwire and the less competitive eras of Ted Williams, Mickey Mantle, and Babe Ruth. The only thing missing from his resume now is a ring. 

Player to Watch #2: LF, Jasson Dominguez

Jasson Dominguez turned out an unremarkable rookie season. Despite being one of the pre-season Rookie of the Year favorites, he struggled mightily on defense, with -10 OAA (2nd percentile) in left field, and also had issues as a right-handed hitter with a .569 OPS. Nevertheless, his left-handed at bats were promising, landing at a .768 OPS, and his aforementioned two major flaws seemed to improve over the course of the year. 

His issues could be ascribed to his lack of reps as a result of his youth and his injury history – further, being supplanted by Trent Grisham in the starting lineup this year certainly did not help. He may have benefitted from being sent down to get more playing time and work on his issues in AAA this year, or possibly reconsidering his being a switch-hitter and shifting his focus to left-handed hitting. Even still, he is young and has shown the ability to improve. 

The Yankees should either give him extended run next year or trade him for a win-now asset.  His being on the trading block may be a possibility considering that he was rumored to be in deals around the trade deadline, in addition to the outfield logjam that could occur if they want to call up Spencer Jones while also bringing back Bellinger or signing Tucker. His baserunning, raw power, and general proclivity toward walks are a plus, but he was brought down by a lack of contact ability, something he will have to improve to fulfill his potential. 

Player to Watch #3: SP, Clarke Schmidt 

Clarke Schmidt was on this list because I did not account for the emergence of Cam Schlittler. Schmidt’s season-ending  elbow injury paved the way for Schlittler’s call-up, and he managed to turn out a similar ERA to Schmidt’s in the first half. Clarke Schmidt’s stellar performance has been flying under the radar for the Yankees for the past couple seasons because of his frequent injuries, yet when he has been on the field, he has been very effective. Although his 2025 ERA of 3.32 is higher than his 2024 ERA of 2.85, his WHIP was lowered to 1.09. If he had pitched enough innings, this would have been 14th in MLB. This is the result of his increased proclivity for inducing soft contact, tied to an introduction of a slider in 2025. 

He threw his cutter more this year, and then threw all three of a curve, slider, and sweeper equally. This may seem to create a redundant repetoire, but throwing pitches, especially breaking pitches, that look similar but are slightly different create a deceptive tunneling effect and prohibit the batter from identifying the pitch as quickly. Something similar could be seen in Michael King, who had to introduce a slider in 2024 to aid the effectiveness of his sweeper. Schmidt’s slider was utilized more frequently against righties, as his cutter and curveball was used more against lefties. His new slider had a run value of 7, the highest single season marke for any pitch of his career. 

Against lefties, Schmidt was still less effective than he is against righties, yet he was able to get righties out even more effectively this year than he had in the past. He had the internal brace surgery instead of the regular Tommy John which calls for a short recovery time, so he said that he expects to be a factor sometime (likely late) next year. 

Playoff Recap:

The narrative going into the playoffs was that the Yankees could not beat non-AL Central teams, and they disabused that notion, but only to a certain extent. They drew Garrett Crochet and the Red Sox in the first round, and after narrowly losing the first game, they managed to take the next two. The second game was the closest, and on the brink of elimination, Jazz Chisholm scored from first on an Austin Wells single in the eighth inning, propelling the Yankees to a win. 

The most electrifying aspect of this series, though, was Cam Schlittler’s 12 strikeouts and 8 scoreless innings in game 3 to send the Red Sox packing. After a span of several years where the Yankees have more often than not been embarrassed by their rivals in big games, it was a refreshing sight to be on the opposite end for once. Even so, this was a series they had to win: aside from the Garrett Crochet factor, the Yankees were a better roster than the Red Sox in nearly every fashion. 

On first glance, the Blue Jays series was a different story going into the series,  as they ostensibly matched up evenly with the Yankees. This turned out not to be the case, as the Yankees got dismantled in every facet of the game. The pitchers were unable to strike anyone out and the hitters, except for Judge, looked hapless. There is simply not much to say about this series, except to to bring back and cherish the isolated memory of that one glorious night where Aaron Judge turned on a 100 MPH Louis Varland fastball at his hands and hit it off the foul pole to give them their one win. Other than that – it was pretty dismal. 

It is worth it, though, to evaluate the respective approaches of the Yankees and Blue Jays, as they could not be any more different. The Blue Jays enforced hard and frequent contact as their modus operandi, whereas the Yankees preached selectiveness, patience, and power.  The Yankees were more effective in the regular season, scoring the most runs by a wide margin, but in the postseason, the Yankees appeared entirely outmatched. Here are a sample of regular season stats for the Yankees, Blue Jays and Dodgers, and their postseason equivalents: 

Blue Jays: 

Yankees: 

Dodgers: 

The Blue Jays enormously outperformed their regular season performance, especially when compared to the rest of the postseason field. The Jays’ playoff wRC+ was 128, whereas it was 112 in the regular season. Their regular season mark was 4th in the league, while their postseason mark was first by an enormous margin: only one other team had a postseason wRC+ above 100, and that was Seattle with a 101 wRC+. Is there anything particular about Toronto that made them severely outperform their regular season wRC+ in the postseason? 

I would suspect that the largest factor in this by far is simply small sample size variation. Perhaps their method of preparation, advance scouting, mental fortitude, or particular approach of prioritizing contact and avoiding strikeouts works particularly well in the postseason (this idea may be necessitate some more scrutiny, although at first glance there is no real reason why that would be the case) is superior to that of every other team, but these things are not likely to comprise of such a large disparity. 

Although it is frustrating to hear some, particularly baseball executives, claim that the postseason is a “crapshoot,” there is some truth to the notion that a <20 game sample size has MUCH more variation than a 162 game sample size. While it is not entirely a “crapshoot” (i.e. the better a team is in the regular season/on paper, the higher the chance they have of winning in the postseason) sometimes postseason success can simply be chalked up to their players getting hot at the right time. 

This idea is even more plausible when considering the fact that a hitter does not always hit to their average. For example, a .300 AVG hitter rarely hits exactly around .300 for a short span. Instead, for one 15 game span they will hit .200, while for another they will hit .400, averaging out over 30 games to a .300 average. This can also be applied to a pitcher: a 3.00 ERA pitcher does not pitch to an exactly 3.00 ERA on any given start. There is very little rhyme or reason to when these streaks occur, increasing postseason unpredictability. For next season, the Yankees simply have to hope that their players get hot at the right time. 

Offseason Outlook:

The most difficult part to grapple with in relation to the postseason loss to the Blue Jays was that there was not one glaring weakness to which the loss can be ascribed. Their offense, which was 1st in runs scored in the regular season, no-showed in the playoffs (except for Aaron Judge).  Max Fried and Carlos Rodon, who had pitched to ace-levels for most of the season, got shelled. The bullpen, which had been shaky at points, was exposed by their lack of true depth. The outfield has the most vacancies, allowing for possible additions, yet some of their most important contributors are the ones creating this vacancy.

One option is to reinforce the infield. With Anthonly Volpe sidelined for the first few weeks of the season from shoulder surgery, the left side of the infield projects to be Ryan McMahon and Jose Caballero. Even when Volpe returns, the left side of the infield is somewhat dubious offensively, so a righty third baseman or shortstop could be a worthwhile addition to either platoon with or replace McMahon or Volpe. This could come in the form of Kazuma Okamoto, the third baseman for the Yomiuri Giants of the NPB. There are some concerns about his defense, but offensively he is impressive, with a .327/.416/.598 slash line and a 1.014 OPS last year. A righty, he offers a strong contact tool that would round out the bottom of the lineup. 

A recent criticism of the Yankees’ lineup construction has been that the bottom of the order (Volpe, Wells, McMahon) was too whiff-prone and on a day-in day-out basis would rarely contribute to the overall offense. This idea has some credence: looking at a team like the Blue Jays, the bottom of their lineup was geared less towards players who can offer 20 yearly home runs and not much else, and instead towards higher OBP, contact-focused players. Thus, they would turn the lineup over to the sluggers at the top with more frequency and with more men on base. The defense the Yankees’ bottom of the order players provide is valuable, but it is fair to wonder whether they could find players who complement the top of the lineup yet provide similar defense. While the Yankees’ team approach is effective, it can become monotonous and repetitive if there are not any other players approaching their at-bats in a different way. The Yankees appear reluctant to move off any of these players, though, and there is no clear-cut improvement that is a reasonable target. 

The other big story is the outfield. Kyle Tucker is set to be the premier free agent, but the bidding is not supposed to be quite as intense as the Juan Soto sweepstakes last year. The estimates of his contract have been upward of 10 years and $400 million, which sounds steep, but may be necessary to woo a 28 year-old elite hitting outfielder. Compared to Cody Bellinger, he would provide more certain and superior offensive output. Since 2020, he has had an OPS+ of 143, and he is almost a Juan Soto-lite, with his 98th percentile chase% and 92nd percentile xwOBA.  His numbers last year were brought down by Wrigley Field, which we have seen with Cody Bellinger to be unfriendly to lefty pull hitters. The questions with Tucker are his durability – he has been injured over the past couple years – and his defense. 

Although typically a right fielder, that post is occupied for the foreseeable future by Aaron Judge, who plays a defensively-sound right field. Tucker’s range was ranked in the 25th percentile last year by OAA, and this would not be aided by a move to Yankee Stadium’s cavernous left field. There is also the question of Jasson Dominguez, who the Yankees have tried as a left fielder in the majors despite also playing center field in the past. A Tucker-Dominguez-Judge outfield defense would be shaky, while the DH spot is occupied by Giancarlo Stanton. 

Cody Bellinger, on the other hand, was integral to the Yankees for his defensive versatility and range, with a 93rd percentile OAA and innings played in left field, center field, and first base. His pull approach was a perfect fit for Yankee Stadium, and his number should come out to be possibly $10 mil of AAV below that of Tucker, allowing Brian Cashman to allocate more money to other parts of the team like the bullpen. But Bellinger is coming off his best year perhaps since his MVP season, so it is fair to wonder whether this was an aberration or his new norm. 

There are points in favor of either option, but it is important to note some similar decisions in the past. The Yankees have opted for the cheaper, less certain option before, notably in the case of the Yankees choosing Anthony Rizzo over signing Freddie Freeman or trading for Matt Olson. This did not work out in favor of the Yankees, with Olson and Freeman still being elite for their position and Rizzo retiring early this year after a year of struggle.  

This situation is not exactly analogous, but it is worth it to note that part of the premium teams pay for a player like Tucker or Juan Soto or Freddie Freeman is the certainty that comes along with them. Tucker is unlikely to lose his elite offensive status for another few years, while Bellinger is two years older, has a spottier history, and less of an outlier in terms of bat speed and other raw underlying metrics. Overall, I would say I lean towards signing Tucker, as a Judge-Tucker combination would be lethal over the next few years, but I would not be too disappointed with retaining Bellinger and then using the difference to add to other parts of the team. 

As demonstrated by the Dodgers in the postseason, pitching is of the utmost importance when winning championships. While the Yankees have a strong staff on paper, there are some question marks, including the returns of Cole and Rodòn from injury and Luis Gil after a down year. They may do well to acquire another arm to insure against another injury. There has been conjecture surrounding Tatsuya Imai, a pitcher from the Seibu Lions of the NPB who pitched to a 1.92 ERA last season. 

The bullpen also needs to be revamped, given the impending free agencies of Luke Weaver and Devin Williams. The back end is in a good spot with Bednar, but the rest of the bullpen lacks depth, and for once, the Yankees were unable to discover depth arms for the greater part of the 2025 season. I would be in favor of bringing back Devin Willaims; despite his struggles for a large part of the season, every underlying number suggested that he should have been better than what he was, meaning he is a strong 2025 positive regression candidate. 

Weaver, on the other hand, lost some of his location at the end of the year, but as a result his price may be lower and the Yankees could try to regain his 2024 postseason form. Even if they do that, they should go out and acquire more bullpen arms in the event of injury or any other form of regression. The lack of very many other roster holes should allow them to do so.  

My prediction is that the Yankees will re-sign Bellinger, get some bullpen help (none of the big fish – as in no Edwin Diaz) and perhaps some infield help, but nothing earth-shattering. The more plausible big moves are Imai, and to a lesser extent Tucker, who in the end I don’t believe the Yankees will be willing to pay given the existence of Bellinger. This strategy would not leave me distraught, but I would prefer a Dodgers-like aggressiveness, especially considering the big picture of this team. 

Just as I finished writing this, the news came out that Trent Grisham accepted the qualifying offer. This complicates plans for the Yankees – they likely would not have extended the qualifying offer if they did not want him to accept it, but paying him $22 million means their budget is severely hampered for the remainder of the offseason. If they want to acquire one of Tucker or Bellinger, they will have to go near the third luxury tax threshold of $304 million. Currently, Spotrac has their projected payroll at $259 million with the Grisham re-signing, meaning this makes Tucker much more unlikely and also to a lesser extent Bellinger. I question this decision to extend the qualifying offer, but the Yankees must think that Grisham’s 2025 was not a fluke. 

This leaves them with a tough decision. If they roll out an outfield of Dominguez-Grisham-Judge, that is a clear step down from their outfield last year, and I would be sorely disappointed with this result. If they bring Bellinger back for ~30 million, then they will be limited in getting bullpen and infield help to around $15 million. In this scenario, they would also have to manage the Dominguez situation, in the form of either trading him or sending him down for more development, as limiting his playing time for another year could hinder his development and decrease his value further. In the interest of aiding the Yankees’ current window, I would support bringing in one of Tucker or Bellinger, (preferably Tucker) and trading Dominguez for either an infielder or pitcher. 

The Yankees could very well stand pat and limit the spending this winter and have reasonable explanations, yet doing so may be more detrimental than it may seem on the surface with the impending 2027 lockout. Aaron Judge will be 34 in April. Gerrit Cole is 36. Other core players, such as Max Fried, Carlos Rodon and Giancarlo Stanton are all in their 30s. It would be unrealistic to expect any of these players to be better in the future than they are in the present. The clock is ticking on all of their careers, and if the 2027 season is lost due to a CBA negotiation-rooted strike, then 2026 may be their only true shot before this window expires. 

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