Image: (Jeff Chiu/Associated Press)
When you hear the name Kyler Murray, you think of the NFL star who was picked 1st overall in the 2019 draft by the Arizona Cardinals. The 2018 Heisman Trophy winner has been the starting quarterback for the last six years, displaying his talent on Sundays, and has also proven to be an elite fantasy football pick due to his raw athleticism and speed. To add to that, he has won the 2019 AP Offensive Rookie of the Year award and is a two-time Pro Bowler. But what people often forget is that Kyler was a top baseball prospect.
For the Oklahoma Sooners in his junior year (2018), Kyler played 51 games and posted a batting average of 0.296, with 10 Home Runs, 47 RBIs, and stole 10 bases. His elite speed, great hands, raw athleticism, and being a multi-sport athlete competing at high levels in both football and baseball piqued scouts’ interest. MLB scouts saw Kyler as a future piece in the outfield with tremendous upside to wreak havoc with his ability to run the bases and cover a wide range of ground in the outfield.
MLB Pipeline, at the time, had his scouting grades as follows: Hit: 50 | Power: 50 | Run: 70 | Arm: 40 | Field: 55 | Overall: 50.
Teams knew Murray was not a completely polished player and was not an elite hitter. However, they knew Murray was a generational prospect because of his athleticism and his potential to develop into a truly one-of-a-kind player. If Murray could develop his power in particular throughout his time in the Minor Leagues, teams knew that he would soon shine and take the field for their ball club.
However, as we all know, despite being selected ninth overall by the Oakland Athletics, Kyler chose to play football for the Arizona Cardinals. And ever since that day, I’ve always wondered, scouts have always wondered, teams have always wondered, and fans have always wondered what he would’ve done if he had chosen to play baseball.
We will never know, but I ran a simulation on ChatGPT based on his scouting reports, sabermetric analysis, realistic data of how similar prospects have panned out over the years, and other such criteria.
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So with the help of ChatGPT, here is a detailed, realistic, and nuanced sabermetric simulation of Kyler Murray’s full MLB career:
Minor League
After being drafted ninth overall by the Oakland Athletics, the 20-year-old, 5-foot-10, outfielder began his journey in the Minor Leagues. MLB Pipeline immediately had him as the number thirty-one overall prospect in Minor League baseball. Murray started his time in the Minor Leagues with the A’s Rookie affiliate, the AZL Athletics, and worked his way up throughout the farm system, all the way up to the Triple-A affiliate, the Las Vegas Aviators. In the 2021 season, in his third year of the Minor Leagues, Murray went on an absolute tear, posting a slash line of .302 AVG/.375 OBP/.502 SLG for the Aviators and caught the attention of the A’s manager Bob Melvin. With Kyler finally proving his elite ability to drive the baseball with power in Triple-A, Bob knew it was his time and that he needed to play with the show’s finest.
Major League
2021 Season: Kyler made his debut in mid-June, at 22 years old, for the Oakland Athletics and was eager to prove himself and showcase his elite athleticism and his newly developed power. As a rookie, Kyler had to get used to playing at the highest level and struggled a bit on both sides of the ball. At the plate, he had issues with the elite velocity of MLB starters and chased high pitches. In the outfield, Kyler wasn’t yet acclimated to the pop of MLB hitters and was not taking the best routes to the ball. However, Kyler did have success at the plate.
Within 90 games, he punished pitchers’ mistakes and posted a .243 AVG/.312 OBP/.399 SLG slash line, with 8 HRs, 26 RBIs, and 18 SB. Kyler had a wRC+ of 94, a 0.301 xwOBA, and an fWAR of 1.5.
The A’s finished in 4th place in the AL West, but due to this low-pressure environment, Kyler was able to develop and build confidence and gain valuable experience to set him up for the next year.
2022 Season: At age 23, Kyler became the full-time starter of the Oakland Athletics in center field. This season, he proved why scouts were so high on his speed, finishing 5th in the AL for stolen bases, had a 6.4 BsR, and finished 3rd in AL Rookie of the Year voting. At the plate, with more experience, Kyler learned to shorten up his swing path and improve his timing to make significant strides in his batting ability.
In 151 games, he posted a slash line of .264 AVG/.334 OBP/.427 SLG, with 15 HRs, 49 RBIs, and 41 SBs. He finished with a wRC+ of 108, an xwOBA of 0.313, and an fWAR of 3.7.
In his sophomore MLB season, Kyler improved significantly at the plate. He produced at a statistically high level and helped the As win more ball games, trending the ball club upwards, finishing 76 and 86. Kyler proved to scouts, teammates, coaches, fans, and the media why he was a top prospect and was the highlight of the ball club’s year.
2023 Season: At age 24, the 2023 season looked promising after his breakout 2022 season. He was the starting centerfielder again, and everyone was expecting Kyler to take his game to the next level. Unfortunately, in June, he suffered a brutal hamstring strain and was left on the injured list for a significant period of time. His hamstring injury not only kept him off the field for a long time of five weeks, but when he returned, his speed had significantly declined.
In 114 games, he posted a slash line of .251 AVG/.309 OBP/.391 SLG, with 12 HRs, 30 RBIs, and 25 SBs. He finished with a wRC+ of 95, an xwOBA of 0.286, and an fWAR of 1.9.
It was definitely a step down from his sophomore season, and this injury raised doubts and lots of uncertainty about whether Kyler would become a ball player held back by horrible injuries. His athleticism was key to his performance, and without a healthy body, he could not display his speed and perform consistently.
2024 Season: At age 25, Kyler was ready to come back stronger and put his hamstring injury behind him. He had high hopes to perform well and take his game up a notch, and that is exactly what he did. Kyler destroyed the baseball and hit for a high average and a high slugging percentage, and he wreaked havoc on the basepaths with his speed. At the trade deadline, however, the Oakland Athletics realized that their organization was not in the best position to keep Murray on their roster since they needed to do a full rebuild. They traded away Murray to the San Diego Padres at the deadline for 2 top-20 prospects. With the Padres, Murray moved all around the outfield and was an excellent addition to share the outfield with Fernando Tatis Jr., Jurickson Profar, and Jackson Merrill.
In 154 games, Murray posted a slash line of .271 AVG/.339 OBP/.441 SLG, with 17 HRs, 54 RBIs, and 40 SBs, with a 113 wRC+, 0.316 xwOBA, and a 4.1 fWAR.
The Padres advanced to the playoffs, and in Murray’s postseason debut, he was elite for the Padres, hitting .304 AVG and was an absolute menace on the bases with 6 stolen bases within 9 games. Unfortunately, the Padres lost in the NLCS, but Murray was shining on the biggest stage in October baseball, and he was determined to come back and win it all.
2025 Season: At age 26, Kyler was entering the prime of his career and had proven himself to be an elite ball player. The Padres recognized his talent as well, with his raw athleticism and speed, and Mike Shildt decided to stick Kyler at the top of the lineup. Kyler was any coach’s dream leadoff hitter and did not let the skipper down throughout the year.
Throughout 160 games, Murray posted a stat line of .279 AVG/.357 OBP/.464 SLG, with 21 HRs, 66 RBIs, and 38 SBs. Murray also had a wRC+ of 124, a 0.327 xwOBA, and an impressive 5.1 fWAR.
Murray was selected as a first-time All-Star, won a Gold Glove for centerfield, and finished 9th in NL MVP voting. And after this truly elite season from Kyler, the Padres knew that they had to lock him up and offered Kyler a $108M extension for 6 years. Kyler signed the new deal and knew that San Diego was where he wanted to be and that this was his best shot at winning it all, even though they had just missed the playoffs.
2026 Season: At age 27, Kyler proved to be an elite leadoff hitter again, posting a slash line of .281 AVG/.348 OBP/.447 SLG, with 18 HRs, 59 RBIs, 36 SBs, with a 115 wRC+, a 0.319 xwOBA, and a 4.4 fWAR. Kyler was truly one of the best batters in the MLB, being able to consistently produce around 20 Home Runs and steal almost 40 bases year in and year out.
However, Kyler’s fielding regressed in centerfield and his ability to track down the ball was not at the level as in the past years. And that was the story for the Padres as a whole ball club; their hitting was elite, but they could not keep it together in the field.
In the postseason, Kyler and the Padres fell in the NLDS, and Kyler had a solid slash line of .278 AVG/.362 OBP/.417 SLG. And with the defense declining, and Kyler nearing the middle to end of his prime years, many wondered if this was the Padres’ last shot at winning a World Series for a long time.
2027 Season: At age 28, the leadoff Padres hitter posted a slash line of .266 AVG/.335 OBP/.432 SLG, with 17 HRs, and 30 SBs, with a wRC+ of 109, and a fWAR of 3.7 within 148 games. Another great year at the plate for Kyler Murray, as everyone had expected. However, many started to realize that Murray was regressing as a player, as his hamstring issues resurfaced in July and his exit velocity was trending downwards.
2028 Season: At age 29, at the end of his prime, Murray produced consistently for the Padres lineup, posting a .255 AVG/.322 OBP/.413 SLG, with 15 HRs, 23 SBs, a 101 wRC+, and a 2.6 fWAR. Kyler was an above-average and consistent player, but he was clearly regressing. He was not close to the 20+ HR, 40+ SB player that we all once knew.
But as we all know, with age comes more inconsistency and a lower level of play. Kyler’s power was declining, and his speed (his #1 asset) was declining as well. The Padres also ended up missing the playoffs, and many other star players were traded at the deadline, but Murray remained on the Padres roster. From a management standpoint, it was clear that the Padres were starting to hit the rebuild button, and Kyler was stuck there under contract.
2029 Season: At age 30, we saw a significant regression of the level of play for Kyler Murray, with his swing speed dropping, exit velocity dropping, power dropping, and various other attributes declining. His decline in speed moved him over to the left side of the outfield, and he posted a negative four outs above average. At the plate, over 133 games, Kyler posted a slash line of .248 AVG/.308 OBP/.384 SLG, with 13 HRs, 17 SBs, a 94 wRC+, and a 1.9 fWAR. It was clear that Kyler was becoming a below-average batter and fielder, and he was becoming a veteran and role player for the Padres.
2030 Season: At age 31, Kyler lost his best asset of elite speed, and without his elite speed and raw athleticism, it was hard for the management to put him in the starting lineup. Murray declined throughout the season as a role-player and became a part-time outfielder by August. Throughout 118 games, Murray posted a .244 AVG/.299 OBP/.372 SLG, with 11 HRs, and 12 SBs, a 90 wRC+, and a 1.2 fWAR.
2031 Season: At age 32, everyone knew that Kyler was approaching the end of his career, due to the lack of his speed and defensive production. Throughout 102 games, he posted a slash line of .239 AVG/.294 OBP/.363 SLG, with 9 HRs, 6 SBs, and a 0.8 fWAR. Kyler could not help this Padres roster win ball games, and struggled himself on both sides of the ball. His contract officially ended at the end of the season, and he became a free agent.
2032-2034 seasons (Ages 33-35): At this point in his career, Kyler Murray became a journeyman and was open to playing for whatever ball club that could use his talent. In 2032, Kyler played for the Tigers on a one-year contract, posting a .232 AVG/.289 OBP/.354 SLG, with 6 HRs and 2 SBs, as a platoon left fielder. In 2033, Murray signed a one-year contract with the Rays, and now played a pinch runner role and an extra outfielder, posting a slash line of .228 AVG/.275 OBP/.341 SLG within 64 games. And in his final season in 2034, Murray signed a one-year deal with the Braves, and in 41 games, he had a slash line of 0.217 AVG/.260 OBP/.323 SLG.
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Career Summary:
After the 2034 season, Kyler Murray retired from baseball. In a total of 1,684 games, Murray posted a slash line of .260 AVG/.328 OBP/.421 SLG, with 163 HRs, 428 SBs, a 103 wRC+, and a 36.5 fWAR. In the postseason, Murray posted a slash line of .273 AVG/.341 OBP/.456 SLG, with 4 HR and 14 SB in 33 games. Murray was a 1x All-Star, 1x Gold Glove, 1x T-10 MVP Finisher, and finished 5 seasons with a 4+ fWAR.
With this ChatGPT simulation, we estimated what Kyler’s career would have looked like if he had chosen baseball. Though he was not one of the all-time greats, he proved to be an amazing draft pick by the Oakland Athletics and was a good player with an All-Star peak, and contributed meaningfully as a leadoff hitter with great speed. Murray was a respectable veteran and a fan-favorite. He was someone fans were incredibly excited to watch every day at the ball park due to such insane raw talent, athleticism, and speed. In the prime of his career, he was a very impactful player, and even when he lost his speed, he found ways to contribute in other ways as a role-player, a pinch runner, and a bench veteran. The factors that limited Kyler’s greatness were his hamstring injuries, defensive decline over time, and power decline over time.
Additionally, I believe that in this simulation, Kyler did not have an incredibly successful career because the MLB values power way more than anything else. In the minds of many front office officials, if you cannot hit home runs, then you are not an elite player. Therefore, players with other such talents like athleticism and speed, and stealing bags are not as valued and are overlooked. Kyler was an elite player, but perhaps he was born in the wrong generation, as his more small-ball style would have worked better in the 1960s or the 1980s.
And with regards to Kyler’s decision between baseball and football, it is clear from this simulation that Kyler chose the right career path. As Kyler’s most recent contract is $230M over 5 years (which is $150M+ more than what he earned in his whole estimated baseball career). Additionally, Kyler is already a 2x Pro Bowler and was the Offensive Rookie of the Year in his football career thus far, which already tops a fully estimated and simulated baseball career.
Even though Kyler chose football, it is still an interesting thought experiment to see what would’ve happened on the diamond for him. This ChatGPT simulation gives us a good estimate of what could’ve been.
Categories: Analysis
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