Image:(Brad Penner/Imagn Images)
2024 Record: 89-73 (.549 win%, 3rd in NL East)
2025 Payroll: $312,071,720 (2nd)
Steamer 2025 Projected Top 10 Hitter WAR:
1. OF Juan Soto, .283 AVG/.422 OBP/.541 SLG, .411 wOBA 6.0 fWAR
2. SS Francisco Lindor, .258 AVG/.336 OBP/.454 SLG, .342 wOBA, 5.3 fWAR
3. 3B Mark Vientos, .250 AVG/.314 OBP/.472 SLG, .337 wOBA, 3.3 fWAR
4. C Francisco Álvarez, .238 AVG/.315 OBP/.442 SLG, .327 wOBA, 2.6 fWAR
5. 1B Pete Alonso, .239 AVG/.330 OBP/.476 SLG, .345 wOBA, 2.5 fWAR
6. OF Brandon Nimmo, .253 AVG/.348 OBP/.418 SLG, .336 wOBA, 2.5 fWAR
7. 2B/OF Jeff McNeil, .272 AVG/.333 OBP/.398 SLG, .320 wOBA, 1.4 fWAR
8. OF Jose Siri, .207 AVG/.266 OBP/.386 SLG, .283 wOBA, 1.0 fWAR
9. OF Jesse Winker, .244 AVG/.356 OBP/.399 SLG, .334 wOBA, 1.0 fWAR
10. C Luis Torrens, .229 AVG/.290 OBP/.374 SLG, .290 wOBA, 0.9 fWAR
Steamer 2025 Projected Top 5 Starting Pitcher WAR:
1. RHP Kodai Senga, 163.1 IP/3.78 ERA/1.28 WHIP, 2.6 fWAR
2. RHP Clay Holmes, 160.2 IP/3.57 ERA/1.35 WHIP, 2.2 fWAR
3. LHP Sean Manaea, 162.1 IP/4.04 ERA/1.27 WHIP, 1.8 fWAR
4. LHP David Peterson, 152.2 IP/3.72 ERA/1.34 WHIP, 1.7 fWAR
5. RHP Frankie Montas, 105.0 IP/4.08 ERA/1.30 WHIP, 1.2 fWAR
Steamer 2025 Projected Top 4 Relievers:
1. RHP Edwin Díaz, 65.0 IP/2.94 ERA/1.09 WHIP, 1.0 fWAR
2. RHP Reed Garrett, 66.0 IP/3.45 ERA/1.25 WHIP, 0.6 fWAR
3. LHP A.J. Minter, 57.0 IP/3.34 ERA/1.17 WHIP, 0.5 fWAR
4. RHP Dedniel Núñez, 49.0 IP/3.46 ERA/1.21 WHIP, 0.4 fWAR
It’s All About the Mets!
New York is irrefutably a Mets town. You’d be hard-pressed to even name another team in the city. Besides, where would they even put such a thing? The Bronx? I don’t think so! It’s all about the Mets, baby. In fact, New York is such a Mets town that after the team lost the NLCS four-games-to-two to the Los Angeles Dodgers, they didn’t even hold the World Series. Don’t believe me? Check for yourself. Google is free (for now).
Optimism is high after last season’s surprise run to game 6 of the NLCS. Following a June 2nd loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks put their record at an uninspiring 24-35, the team flipped a switch, and with the aid of many gimmicks and superstitions, ended up doing just enough to sneak into the dance. As a Mets fan myself, it felt like we were that year’s chosen “team of friendship” (though there were no shortage of candidates). The expectation for the 2025 Mets is to contend for the franchise’s first World Series title in 39 years. Last season was fun and all; now it’s time to prove that it wasn’t a fluke.
2024-25 Offseason Recap:
The Mets’ biggest offseason move was one that was a year in the making. Ever since we learned the Yankees’ trade for superstar outfielder Juan Soto wasn’t going to include an extension, it was speculated that the Mets would be major players in his free agency.
It’s exceedingly rare that a player of Soto’s caliber hits free agency at such a young age (26), but then, nothing is ordinary about Juan Soto’s baseball career. Called up by the Washington Nationals in 2018 at age 19 after just 8 games at the AA level, Soto made an immediate impact; putting up a 146 wRC+ in 119 games, and finishing 2nd in National League Rookie of the Year voting to fellow wunderkind and Atlanta Braves outfielder Ronald Acuña Jr..
He did all of this while not being old enough to legally consume alcohol in the United States (old enough in Ontario, though). Since then, Soto has proven that his right-out-of-the-package elite approach was legit, and has fulfilled his promise to become one of the very best bat-swingers (and sometimes non-swingers) around.
All of that being said, it was still something to see the final numbers. 15 years, $765 million, with all the bells and whistles. Soto’s contract comes with a full no-trade clause, and an opt-out after 5 years which the Mets can void. Voiding this opt-out (and let’s be honest, the Mets will) would raise the average annual value of the final 10 years of the contract to $51 million, and would bring the total value of the deal to $805 million. None of it will be deferred. Steve Cohen went deep-sea fishing with an AK-47, and he sure as shit didn’t miss.
Of course, that’s not all that Cohen and GM David Stearns have been up to since meaningful baseball was last played. I think most, including myself, expected the Mets to land one of the big-time starting pitchers available this past offseason: whether that was Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Blake Snell, Roki Sasaki, or one of Garrett Crochet/Dylan Cease via trade. This, as anybody reading likely knows, did not happen.
I guess it’s not surprising, given the enormity of the Soto contract, that the rest of the Mets offseason could be described as “quiet”. To address their biggest question mark, which in my estimation would be the rotation, the Mets brought in a motley crew of names: Clay Holmes from the Yankees, Frankie Montas off of a rough season spent between the Cincinnati Reds and Milwaukee Brewers, and Griffin Canning off of a disastrous season with the Los Angeles Angels.
The team also re-upped 2024 standout Sean Manaea on a 3-year, $75 million deal. These moves, in addition to 2023 rookie stud Kodai Senga returning from missing nearly the entire 2024 season due to various injuries, and despite the losses of Luis Severino and José Quintana should ensure the Mets rotation has the depth to survive the grind of an MLB season.
In what was likely the next-biggest offseason move after Soto, Pete Alonso is back! For a long time, it appeared the Mets’ stalwart power bat was destined to finish out his career outside of Queens, but throughout the offseason, the market for the first baseman dwindled to the point that his camp was making offers to the Mets instead of the other way around. In the end, Alonso and the Mets agreed on a 2 year, $54 million contract, with the second year being a player option. One of the great power hitters in franchise history returns for at least one more season with eyes on the franchise career home run record.
The team let Adam Ottavino, who’d been a staple of the bullpen in each of the last three seasons, walk. After diminishing returns since his first season in Queens in 2022, it was probably time for both parties to start fresh. They’ll look to replace some of his production with former rival southpaw reliever A.J. Minter. Another loss was fan-favorite, Latin pop star and utility infielder Candelita to the San Diego Padres.
Many (including myself) speculated he would be brought back after the season-ending shoulder injury sustained by new acquisition Nick Madrigal, but the team seems content to stick by prospect Luisangel Acuña. The team also said good-by to ace defensive outfielder Harrison Bader, who signed with the Minnesota Twins.
2025 Regular Season Preview:
2024 was the most fun I’ve ever had as a Mets fan. Now, I’m only 23 years old, so I wasn’t around for 1986, but I was around for 2015, and 2022; those seasons were fun, too. 2024, however, was the perfect storm.
It had plenty of drama. As I mentioned earlier in the article, the Sun rose over the western hemisphere on June 3, 2024 with the Mets sitting at 24-35, staring another lost season in the face. Unlike in previous years, the Mets would respond to this adversity by immediately rattling off wins in 11 of their next 13 contests, fueled by McDonald’s icon Grimace throwing out the first pitch on June 13. I love to consume.
The team continued to win. Sean Manaea found major success from July onwards thanks in large part to his efforts in becoming Chris Sale. David Peterson caught fire and brought stability to the patchwork rotation. Mark Vientos broke out to provide a much-needed infusion of offense from the hot corner. José Iglesias turned in the best season of his career at age 34, all while providing the team’s rally song, OMG.
And then there was Francisco Lindor. The current face of the Mets, who has a tendency towards slow starts to the season, once again started slow, sporting a .197 batting average, .639 OPS, and 83 wRC+ by the end of April. However, if there’s one thing I’ve learned about Francisco Lindor in the four seasons he’s donned the orange and blue, it’s to never doubt Francisco Lindor. After a soft-rebound in May, where he put up a 114 wRC+, Lindor hit at the highest level of his career the rest of the way. He put up a wRC+ of over 140 in each of the final four months (144, 164, 163, and 176 respectively).
Pushing aside all of the hoopla about Grimace, or our Latin pop star utility infielder, Francisco Lindor was the beating heart of this surge.
Lindor left the Mets’ 11-3 win over the Phillies on September 13 with an apparent back injury. After an aborted early comeback attempt two days later which lasted one inning, Lindor would miss the next 8 games. Awful news for a team locked into a tight race for one of the final two NL Wild Card spots. Lindor, not one to adhere to caution when his team needed him, came back with just five games to go in the regular season.
The team had held up rather well in his absence, going 6-2 in the 8 games their leader was gone. And after winning just one of the three games since his return, the Mets needed to win only one game of the MLB regular-season closing doubleheader against the Atlanta Braves on September 30 (pushed to this date following Hurricane Helene effecting the Atlanta area the prior week) to qualify for the postseason.
Down 3-1 in the 8th inning, Lindor came up with runners on 1B and 3B against Joe Jiménez and delivered a single up the middle to cut the lead to 3-2. Later in the inning Brandon Nimmo would launch a two-run home run off of Raisel Iglesias to cap off a 6-run 8th inning and give the Mets a 6-3 lead. In the bottom of the inning the Braves would storm all the way back to take a 7-6 lead, punctuated by an Ozzie Albies bases-clearing three-run double off of Edwin Diaz.
Just as all hope felt lost, Starling Marte delivered a one-out single in the top of the 9th to bring up, who else, but Francisco Lindor. And then this happened.
Franciso Lindor WINS it with a Two-Run Homer in the 9th
Edwin Diaz would shut the door in the bottom of the inning, and the Mets were back in the postseason; after all of the ups and downs of this very strange season.
The postseason had it’s share of “holy shit” moments (Pete Alonso go-ahead three-run blast to fade the Brewers, anyone?), but that game is perhaps the most memorable Mets game of my baseball-watching life.
What does that mean for the 2025 season, though?
The expectations for the 2025 Mets are the highest that I can remember in my 15 years of following them. Higher than 2016, after they had just been to the World Series, and certainly higher than 2023, after their 101-win regular season in 2022. I never had much faith in that 2023 team.
This iteration of the Mets has gone out and built an offense that should be one of the most formidable in all of baseball. Francisco Lindor is fresh off of a career year, one in which he finished runner-up to Shohei Ohtani in NL MVP voting. They went out and got a top 5 hitter in the sport in Juan Soto. They re-signed Pete Alonso, who is just 27 home runs from overtaking Darryl Strawberry as the Mets’ career leader. These three are complemented by the Mets’ longest tenured player and steady outfield bat, Brandon Nimmo. Nimmo had a down year by his standards (109 wRC+, 2.7 fWAR) last year while dealing with injuries, but now that he’s suposedly healthy, I don’t see any reason he can’t go right back to his ~130 wRC+ norm. Mark Vientos looks to prove to the doubters that his breakout 2024 was no fluke, and that he’s one of the best 3B in baseball. We’re all still waiting on catcher Francisco Álvarez to break out and fulfill his great promise on offense; though we’ll have to wait while he recovers from his fractured left hamate bone.
There are some question marks that would prevent me fom being too bullish on the 2025 Mets if I were a betting man. The rotation is solid enough on paper (though certainly not elite), but I would be lying if I said I wasn’t worried about Clay Holmes flaming out as a starting pitcher, or Frankie Montas’s ability to stay healthy and productive (he’s already starting the season on the injured list with a right lat strain). I like the process David Stearns has taken with pitchers over the last two seasons; signing high-upside, high-risk arms to short-term deals. Montas hasn’t pitched at his peak level since 2021, but in his 11 starts following his trade to the Brewers last season, his K/9 sat at 11.0, which was his first time over 10.0 K/9 since the 2020 season. All I’m saying is there’s a chance this works out.
Clay Holmes also fits the “high-upside flier” bill. The Yankees’ primary closer of the last three seasons, Holmes is attempting to become the latest success story in the trend of teams converting relievers to starters. Though there is precedent for this practice working very well (Garrett Crochet, Reynaldo López), it has also backfired (Jordan Hicks, A.J. Puk). Holmes will rely heavily on his excellent sweeper, but to find real success as a starter, I believe his sinker needs to return to its pre-2024 effectiveness. Holmes was outstanding in the spring, posting a 0.93 ERA and 23 strikeouts across 19.1 IP, so there’s reason to be optimistic.
The rotation will be bolstered by the re-addition of a healthy Kodai Senga, who faced just 20 batters in the 2024 regular season. Last time Senga was healthy for a full season, he finished runner-up in the NL Rookie of the Year race to Corbin Carroll, and received Cy Young votes. Sean Manaea will also look to repeat the success he had in the second half of the 2024 season, when he decided his new strategy was to become Chris Sale. Manaea will start the 2025 season on the injured list, but given that his success was not reliant on overpowering stuff, it’s reasonable to expect him to provide crucial stability to the rotation upon his return.
David Peterson will start the season as the 5th (well, 3rd, for now) man in the rotation, with Tylor Megill and new signing Griffin Canning providing depth.
Player to Watch #1: OF Juan Soto
The $765 million man himself. One of the best hitters on the planet is a Met for life. I’ll be honest, I don’t see a way this goes anything other than very well. Soto’s floor is an All-Star caliber player. His disciplined approach figures to age very well, even when his elite swing speed declines in his 30s (Soto is still 26, by the way). I don’t even care that he’s a minus-minus defender. That’s not why you give Juan Soto $765 million.
Player to Watch #2: 3B Mark Vientos
Mark Vientos was a pivotal part of the Mets’ success in 2024. He finished the year with a 133 wRC+; good enough for 3rd among all third basemen with at least 450 PA. He also showed signs for concern, especially in the second half of the season, where his K% jumped from 23.1% in the first half, to an alarming 33.7%. His BB% also dropped from 8.0% to 6.7% over the same span. Vientos will need to show more of the improved approach he showed in the first half of 2024 if he wants to continue his ascent up the ranks of the game’s premier third basemen.
Player to Watch #3: RHP Clay Holmes
Clay Holmes is the biggest wildcard in a Mets rotation full of them. He’s got the potential to be a real difference-maker for the team, as shown by his excellent spring, but if he flames out, the Mets could have a real problem on their hands. Even if he fails as a starter, Holmes should at least be a solid addition to the bullpen given his prior experience and success in that role.
Position Group to Watch: The Rotation
In my opinion, the Mets’ season is going to live and die on their starting rotation. If they can squeeze as much value out of that group as they did last season, then there is no limit to how far this team can go. If they struggle with injuries, or if their experiments with Clay Holmes and Frankie Montas fail, or if neither David Peterson nor Tylor Megill can step-up, then there’s a chance this team doesn’t sniff the postseason.
2025 Record Prediction: 90-72
I do think the Mets’ roster has improved from last season, and for that reason, I’m going to set my 2025 record prediction one win ahead of what they were able to achieve in 2024. The rather precarious rotation situation gives me pause on being any more bullish than that, and I wouldn’t call myself an optimist.
Categories: 2025 Season Preview, Analysis, Season Analysis
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