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2024 Record: 93 – 69 (.574 win%, 1st in Division)
2025 Payroll: 95,541,136 (23rd)
Steamer 2025 Projected Lineup
1. RF Jackson Chourio, .270 AVG/.327 OBP/.471 SLG, 3.2 fWAR
2. C William Contreras, .275 AVG/.356 OBP/.466 SLG, 4.8 fWAR
3. LF Christian Yelich, .267 AVG/.362 OBP/.431 SLG, 1.9 fWAR
4. 2B Brice Turang, .255 AVG/.323 OBP/.373 SLG, 2.3 fWAR
5. 1B Rhys Hoskins, .224 AVG/.311 OBP/.432 SLG, 0.6 fWAR
6. CF Sal Frelick, .264 AVG/.331 OBP/.375 SLG, 1.1 fWAR
7. DH Garrett Mitchell, .237 AVG/.319 OBP/.406 SLG, 1.6 fWAR
8. SS Joey Ortiz, .253 AVG/.325 OBP/.404 SLG, 1.9 fWAR
9. 3B Oliver Dunn, .212 AVG/.301 OBP/.363 SLG, 0.6 fWAR
10. INF Vinny Capra, .233 AVG/.309 OBP/.332 SLG, 0.2 fWAR
Steamer 2025 Projected Top 5 Starting Pitcher WAR:
1. RHP Freddy Peralta, 178.0 IP/3.76 ERA/1.20 WHIP, 3.1 fWAR
2. RHP Brandon Woodruff, 156.2 IP/3.76 ERA/1.17 WHIP, 2.6 fWAR
3. LHP Nestor Cortes, 142.0 IP/3.96 ERA/1.19 WHIP, 1.8 fWAR
4. RHP Aaron Civale, 149.0 IP/4.33 ERA/1.28 WHIP, 1.5 fWAR
5. RHP Tobias Myers, 145.0 IP/4.35 ERA/1.30 WHIP, 1.2 fWAR
Steamer 2025 Projected Top 4 Relievers:
1. RHP Trevor Megill, 64.0 IP/3.45 ERA/1.16 WHIP, 0.7 fWAR
2. LHP Bryan Hudson, 60.0 IP/3.51 ERA/1.24 WHIP, 0.5 fWAR
3. RHP Abner Uribe, 55.0 IP/3.47 ERA/1.35 WHIP, 0.5 fWAR
4. LHP Jared Koenig, 62.0 IP/3.58 ERA/1.25 WHIP, 0.4 fWAR
What Does Baseball Mean to This City?
Baseball is an important part of a Milwaukee summer, especially between Bucks basketball and Packers football. Given the upward trend of the Brewers over the past few years, attendance has been high despite being in the smallest television market in the league. Recently, the Wisconsin government signed a bill sending around $500 million over the next 30 years to help repair and upgrade American Family Field, so the Brewers should remain in town for some time.
In Which Direction is This Team Trending?
The Brewers have been playoff contenders for the past few years but have struggled to find postseason success, posting a 2-10 record in the postseason since 2019. Milwaukee’s front office has been successful in reloading on the fly and quickly replacing key losses both by finding value in trades and developing talent from within. Given a strong farm system and a proven front office, Milwaukee should be competing for the postseason this year and in the upcoming years as well. Whether or not they go far remains to be seen, though.
2024-25 Offseason Recap:
Milwaukee had a relatively quiet offseason, but not one without significant losses. Star shortstop Willy Adames departed to San Francisco in free agency, where he received a 7-year, $182 million contract. This is a statistical loss, as Adames hit 32 home runs, posted a .462 slugging percentage, and missed only 1 game for Milwaukee in 2024. However, losing Adames is also an emotional loss, as he was arguably the heart and soul and one of the most important leaders in the clubhouse. The only other major loss on offense was catcher Gary Sanchez.
Milwaukee’s pitching did not remain as stable. Starting pitcher Colin Rea signed a 1 year deal with the rival Cubs. Deadline acquisition Frankie Montas departed to the New York Mets. In the bullpen, Joe Ross and Hoby Milner went to free agency as well. However, the big bullpen move was the trade of Devin Williams to the New York Yankees in exchange for infield prospect Caleb Durbin and starting pitcher Nestor Cortes.
Despite missing the majority of the year, Williams still lived up to his excellent standard in 2024, with a 1.25 ERA and 14 saves, but he gave up a backbreaking home run to Pete Alonso in the 9th inning of Game 3 in the Wild Card round against the Mets, which ultimately led to Milwaukee’s early exit.
The Brewers did not do much to replace these losses. Their only signings consisted of pitcher Tyler Alexander and the conversion of an infamous Brewer slayer in José Quintana. Both pitchers will help eat innings, as Alexander threw 107.2 innings in 2024 (combining starting and relief), while Quintana started 170.1 innings with a 3.75 ERA. Otherwise, Milwaukee’s replacements will come from within the organization.
Finally, I would be remiss if I did not mention the tragic passing of Milwaukee’s famed broadcaster Bob Uecker. Since 1971, Uecker delivered radio broadcasts for Brewers fans everywhere and was one of the most beloved figures by players and fans league-wide. Milwaukee will soldier on and continue in its quest for a World Series without their beloved commentator, but his impact on the organization will always remain.
2025 Regular Season Preview:
The Brewers’ main goal this season is to stay atop the NL Central and go on a postseason run that does not conclude after 3 days. Despite their losses in free agency and their seemingly lackluster additions to replace them, they still have a roster that can contend for the division.
At catcher, William Contreras will take the majority of the starts, while Eric Haase will back him up. Contreras was one of Milwaukee’s stars in 2024 and will be one of their main bats in the lineup. His defense took a step back as his catching statistics (framing and pop time) were average. Haase will be the primary backup and look to slot in on games against lefties, which would move (the superior) Contreras to DH.
At first base, Rhys Hoskins will attempt to rebound from his 2024 season, during which he posted a .214 batting average and -0.2 WAR. He had a great spring training with 6 home runs. The remainder of the infield will consist of Brice Turang, Joey Ortiz, and Oliver Dunn. Turang is the most recognized commodity of the three infielders here, as he had a fantastic sophomore season and held an above .300 batting average deep into the summer, along with the glove to match.
Joey Ortiz will make the switch from third base to shortstop to fill the gap left by Willy Adames. Oliver Dunn will start the season at third base, another Brewer sophomore whose start was derailed by injuries. Andruw Monasterio and Vinny Capra, and potentially Caleb Durbin, will provide the depth around the infield. A common theme among the Milwaukee infield is great defense and getting on base, but a lack of consistent power.
The outfield corners of Jackson Chourio and Christian Yelich will prove to be the core of Milwaukee’s offense. Chourio is expected to continue his surge from June 2024 and could blossom into a superstar for many years to come. On the other hand, Yelich is a banged-up superstar who is hoping to repeat his great year, but he is still recovering from back surgery and won’t play as much at the beginning of the season.
Sal Frelick and Garrett Mitchell will most likely share the center field spot to start off the year, but Milwaukee is hoping for at least one of them to emerge as a franchise player. Mitchell has the power for big moments and speed on the basepaths, but he needs to stay healthy. Frelick has a fantastic glove and put on over 20 pounds this spring training, which should help him to improve from his dead-last hard-hit percentage. Blake Perkins fractured his shin during spring training, but he, along with Isaac Collins, will round out the remaining outfield depth.
Milwaukee improved its starting pitching depth during the offseason, but their rotation doesn’t appear to strike as much fear into opponents as it did in 2021. Freddy Peralta will remain the ace of the staff, but there are many more question marks to follow. The newly acquired Nestor Cortes will look to use his fastball to recapture the magic from his fantastic 2022. Aaron Civale will return for his first full year in a Brewers uniform, along with the currently injured Tobias Myers.
Jose Quintana is a new acquisition, but he is very familiar with pitching in Milwaukee. Brandon Woodruff is still recovering from back surgery, but his reemergence will be a welcome sight to the Brewer faithful. Aaron Ashby represents yet another injury in the pitching department, but his starting role was most likely limited anyway. Overall, the starters are either new or injured, so expect a new face in Chad Patrick to slot in during the interim.
The bullpen will have a new closer in Trevor Megill, who stepped into the closer role while Devin Williams was injured. Megill was excellent and used his 99 mph fastball to record 50 strikeouts last year. The remainder of the high-leverage innings should be handled by Abner Uribe, Bryan Hudson, Jared Koenig, Nick Mears, and potentially with Triple-A prospect Craig Yoho, who has a changeup to rival that of the now departed Devin Williams. Milwaukee has a reputation of developing excellent relievers out of castaways, and I expect that to continue, even without their former closer.
Player to Watch #1: RF Jackson Chourio
Chourio had a breakout rookie season, slashing .275/.327/.464, and emerging down the stretch as Milwaukee’s potential superstar in the making. He has a 97th percentile sprint speed and a hard hit percentage of 44.7, on top of 21 home runs, proving that he is a threat both in terms of power and on the basepaths. If he continues to improve, he could blossom into a dark-horse MVP contender and help propel Milwaukee back to the postseason.
Player to Watch #2: SP Tobias Myers
I had the pleasure of attending a Tobias Myers start last July when he threw 8 shutout innings against Pittsburgh. Myers was an amazing story last year, as he was just 2 years removed from posting a 1-15 record and a 7.82 ERA in the White Sox organization.
He was originally just used as a spot starter when Milwaukee’s pitching suffered an onslaught of injuries but quickly proved to be an important starter, holding a 3.00 ERA and throwing 143 innings, 5 of which were shutout innings in Milwaukee’s winner-take-all Game 3 against the Mets. He suffered an injury against the Angels in spring training and will start the season on the IL. If he can recover quickly and pick up where he left off, he will be an important cog in the Brewers’ pitching machine.
Player to Watch #3: INF Joey Ortiz
Milwaukee acquired Joey Ortiz last year in the deal that sent Corbin Burnes to Baltimore. His first full year in the majors had mixed results. Like many other Brewers players, his defense was fantastic, but his offense left something to be desired. Ortiz posted 11 outs above average (OAA) in the field, playing mostly at 3rd base, but he will move to shortstop to fill the gap left by Willy Adames. On the offensive side, Ortiz has a decent hard hit percentage of 38.4% but lacks significant power with his bat. However, he is good at drawing walks and above average in avoiding strikeouts. Ortiz is under team control through 2030, and Milwaukee is counting on him to have a sophomore jump.
Position Group to Watch: Starting pitchers
Outside of Freddy Peralta, there are quite a few unknowns. Milwaukee has clearly emphasized depth over stardom, and this approach will be especially useful given how banged up the rotation is. Will new acquisitions in Cortes and Quintana prove to be useful throughout the season, or will a pitcher like Woodruff, Myers, or Robert Gasser masterfully return from injury? And who’s to say that Milwaukee doesn’t find another Tobias Myers-like diamond in the rough who emerges to be a key contributor?
2025 Record Prediction: 90-72
For the past few years, analysts and fans have projected Milwaukee to step back from their previous year’s success and hover right around .500, and each year, the Brewers have defied these expectations to win the division.
As mentioned earlier, I believe Milwaukee can replace Devin Williams with Trevor Megill. He has had 4 months of closer experience, and the Brewers have a history of developing relatively unknown relievers. I additionally think their starting pitching will be sufficient enough, even while injured, to carry the load during the season.
I also believe that Joey Ortiz can have a good year and help replace some of Willy Adames’ offense and defense. However, there’s no way around Adames’s 32 home runs. The growth of Jackson Chourio and a potential bounce-back from Rhys Hoskins should help. However, Milwaukee still lacks significant power at the plate.
I believe 90 wins is an appropriate estimate for this year’s team. It is 3 wins below the 2024 Brewers, accounting for the player losses and the new additions that don’t quite make up the gap left. But it is also much higher than many sportsbooks that have Milwaukee projected around 81 wins. Milwaukee has consistently defied expectations, and I expect them to do so again this year.
With the NL Central being relatively weak this year, 90 wins should be enough for a playoff return. The main competition is the Chicago Cubs, who improved with the addition of Kyle Tucker but still have work to do on the pitching side. The Reds and Pirates both have young cores with a superstar apiece in Elly De La Cruz and Paul Skenes, while the Cardinals appear to bring up the rear (love to see it) with a talented infield. You can make an argument for any team winning the division, but I believe Milwaukee will capture their 3rd consecutive division title. Playoff success is the true objective for this team, though.
Categories: 2025 Season Preview, Analysis, Articles, Season Analysis
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