Image: (Leigh Bacho/MLB Photos)
2024 Record: 86-76 (.531 win%, t-2nd in Division)
2025 Payroll: $145,693,333 (18th)
Steamer 2025 Projected Top 10 Hitter WAR:
1. LF Riley Greene, .269 AVG/.349 OBP/.459 SLG, 4.4 fWAR
2. 2B Gleyber Torres, .260 AVG/.335 OBP/.407 SLG, 3.2 fWAR
3. C Jake Rogers, .213 AVG/.278 OBP/.382 SLG, 2.9 fWAR
4. 1B Colt Keith, .265 AVG/.327 OBP/.431 SLG, 1.8 fWAR
5. CF Parker Meadows, .235 AVG/.307 OBP/.398 SLG, 1.8 fWAR
6. RF Kerry Carpenter, .255 AVG/.317 OBP/.461 SLG, 1.5 fWAR
7. SS Trey Sweeney, .224 AVG/.295 OBP/.363 SLG, 1.4 fWAR
8. C Dillon Dingler, .227 AVG/.293 OBP/.384 SLG, 1.3 fWAR
9. UTL Matt Vierling, .253 AVG/.316 OBP/.395 SLG, 1.1 fWAR
10. SS Javier Báez, .234 AVG/.278 OBP/.374 SLG, 1.0 fWAR
Steamer 2025 Projected Top 5 Starting Pitcher WAR:
1. LHP Tarik Skubal, 198.0 IP/2.81 ERA/1.05 WHIP, 5.6 fWAR
2. RHP Jack Flaherty, 164.0 IP/3.79 ERA/1.22 WHIP, 2.4 fWAR
3. RHP Reese Olson, 134.0 IP/3.91 ERA/1.28 WHIP, 1.8 fWAR
4. RHP Alex Cobb, 95.0 IP/3.82 ERA/1.28 WHIP, 1.4 fWAR
5. RHP Casey Mize, 118.0 IP/4.22 ERA/1.30 WHIP, 1.2 fWAR
Steamer 2025 Projected Top 4 Relievers:
1. LHP Tyler Holton, 63.0 IP/3.46 ERA/1.22 WHIP, 0.6 fWAR
2. RHP Will Vest, 68.0 IP/3.48 ERA/1.22 WHIP, 0.5 fWAR
3. RHP Beau Brieske, 66.0 IP/4.01 ERA/1.28 WHIP, 0.2 fWAR
4. RHP Tommy Kahnle, 61.0 IP/3.85 ERA/1.33 WHIP, 0.2 fWAR
The Return of the October Tigers
October 8th, 2013: The game was tied heading into the seventh inning of game four of the ALDS at Comerica Park. My mom leans to me, yelling over the screaming crowd. Is that Max Scherzer? It was, indeed. I was too small to see over the crowd of standing adults waiving white playoff towels. My dad held me up to his shoulder, though, and there he was. Scherzer was coming out of the bullpen after starting game one and picking up the win in a tight 3-2 contest.
Here we were, in need of yet another excellent performance. Now Guardians manager Stephen Vogt hit a single just past the outstretched arm of second basemen Omar Infante to lead off the inning. After a sacrifice bunt (a rare occurrence nowadays!) by Eric Sogard, Coco Crisp singled in the A’s catcher to take a one-run lead. Was Scherzer faltering in the biggest moment of the season? If the A’s win this game (series was in a 2-1 Oakland advantage), the season is over. The greatest Tigers roster since 1984 would be downed in the ALDS, just like that.
The Tigers displayed their grit, though. Scherzer held Oakland for the rest of the inning, then Victor Martinez re-tied the game with a leadoff home run off of Sean Doolittle – who had been excellent all year – to open bottom seven. Jhonny Peralta followed with a double, was pinch ran for with Andy Dirks, and driven in by Austin Jackson to move ahead 5-4.
Onto the eighth. Surely Jim Leyland wouldn’t put Scherzer back into the game on few days rest after looking shaky in the seventh. This could very well be the last game of Skip’s managing career. He can’t make such a brutal error. The crowd erupted, though. Scherzer emerged from the dugout for another inning.
Walk. Brandon Moss heads to first. Double. Yoenis Céspedes pulls into second base after driving a ball to right field. Intentional walk. Seth Smith loads the bases up with no outs. Jim, you have to pull him.
This is Max Scherzer we’re talking about, though. More importantly, this is Tigers baseball. This is Detroit sports. Max Scherzer shuts down Josh Reddick with a two-strike back-foot changeup. Then, he blows a 98 mph fastball by the bat of Vogt for a second straight strikeout. Then Alberto Callaspo rips a line drive to center, Jackson tracks it down, and the crowd (along with Scherzer) goes nuts.
I recall being both stunned and overjoyed. There was an understanding in my household, though, that this is what we do in Detroit. When hope is all but lost, we push through.
This type of mindset has been reclaimed in recent years. Maybe it’s the Dan Campbell effect, pushing GRIT as the expectation in order to be a Detroit Lion. It appears to have rubbed off.
On August 11th of last year, the Tigers were given a 0.2% chance of making the playoffs. Detroit was eight games below .500, and the fanbase was low on hope. The organization had just traded away a number of veteran pieces, including Jack Flaherty who would go on to win a World Series with the Dodgers.
I remember sitting back and thinking about the state of the team around that time of the summer and looking back on game four of the 2013 ALDS, Scherzer pushing through, the Tigers winning the game, taking game five in Oakland, and advancing to the ALCS. Why couldn’t we push through, even when given a 0.2% chance?
And so, the Tigers did. After finishing the season with a 31-11 record – the best in baseball –, Detroit would go on to take the Wild Card series from Houston, who hadn’t missed the ALCS since 2016, despite being doubted again.
I was lucky enough to return to Comerica Park for another playoff game 11 years later, game three of the ALDS. Again, we certainly didn’t play perfect, but we did enough to win. Throughout the season, and especially in the final two months, the Tigers seemed to adopt the mentality of doing just enough to scrape by. They were 37-26 in one-run games and in games which went to extra innings throughout the season.
Image: Jack Reinhart
Though the Tigers were downed in game five by rival Cleveland, the season certainly left a great taste in the mouths of fans in the Metro Detroit area. Overall, the roster certainly didn’t get any worse in the offseason that followed. It’s go time in Detroit, as fans long for a championship. It’s been 40 empty seasons without a Tigers championship, and 17 years since a Detroit core-four team was crowned with its respective league’s title (2008 Red Wings). Are the Tigers ready, though, to take that next step?
2024-25 Offseason Recap:
With a deeper free agent market available in the 2024-25 offseason as compared to the year prior and coming off a playoff berth, the Tigers appeared to be in a position to spend. And so they did, just maybe not in the way fans expected.
First, let’s get the elephant out of the room. I couldn’t write on the Tigers’ offseason without discussing the Alex Bregman saga. Between Detroit’s third base opening on the roster and Bregman’s apparent strong relationship with his former manager, it seemed like the Tigers would be the team to land the star corner infielder.
Let’s be frank, however. The asks reportedly coming out of Bregman’s camp early in the offseason for a $200 million deal seemed misguided. Heading into his age-31 season, coming off a year which showed his first signs of offensive regression, this number seemed like a stretch. Nonetheless, if a team were to fork over the dollars, it should have been the Tigers.
And it was. By all accounts, Detroit offered Bregman what ended up being his largest total-money contract – $171.5 million over six years. In the last moment, the Red Sox swooped in and offered a three-year, $120 million deal with two opt-outs, one of the most player-friendly deals signed in league history. It’s difficult to be upset with the final outcome. Would it have been nice to have Bregman in Detroit? Sure. Would six years of Bregman be ideal? Probably not.
So, we move on. Infield solutions in the offseason mainly lay in developing talent like Jace Jung, Trey Sweeney, and Hao-Yu Lee but were supplemented with the signing of Gleyber Torres to a one-year, $15M deal. This acts as a prove-it deal for Torres, as he hopes to earn a multi-year contract next offseason. Where did he want to prove himself? After having conversations with Gio Urshela, Miguel Cabera, and Victor Martinez, Torres decided to come to Detroit.
Image: Junfu Han/USA Today Network
This brings about a particularly important point. Players want to come to Detroit. Despite not playing in a hitter friendly stadium, Torres still made the decision to become a Tiger because he sees the opportunity to improve.
The Tigers organization has established a culture of development which appears headed towards Rays-land. Erik Neander and co. prioritized this corner of their organization in Tampa when it was clear spending on big-named free agents wouldn’t be possible. Detroit is following suit.
To this point, right-hander Jack Flaherty returned even after being dealt away at the deadline. This is usually a death sentence for a team-athlete relationship, but in this case, Flaherty appeared more than thrilled to return to Detroit. His presence in the front-end of the rotation will certainly be welcome. And so, the Tigers have in the organization’s No. 5-ranked prospect Thayron Liranzo what the Yankees had in Torres when they dealt Aroldis Chapman in 2016 and re-signed him a few months later.
Key Acquisitions:
- RHP Jack Flaherty
- 2B Gleyber Torres
- RHP Alex Cobb
- RHP Tommy Kahnle
- RHP John Brebbia
- LHP Andrew Chafin
- OF Manuel Margot
Key Subtractions:
- RHP Alex Faedo
2025 Regular Season Preview:
Gleyber has a beard…the biggest news out of Tigers Spring Training! I wish that were the case. Unfortunately, Detroit’s Lakeland trip was marred by injuries to three key pieces on the team’s offense.
Parker Meadows, who finished strong in 2024 to post a 109 OPS+ on the season, was recently placed on the 60-day IL with a nerve issue in his arm. Matt Vierling, a key utility piece, is progressing to soft toss while dealing with a rotator cuff injury in his throwing arm. Finally, Wenceel Pérez will miss at least a month with a back issue.
With these injuries, it leaves Tigers fans wondering what the team will do with its lack of outfield depth to open the year. Infielder Ryan Kreidler has apparently smoothly transitioned into the center field role he has been tasked with during Spring Training, though his bat remains a major question mark, producing a career .405 OPS over 167 plate appearances on various major league stints.
The Tigers also signed Manuel Margot, a veteran outfielder who is likely to be a placeholder until any one of the three injured players returns. While fans question the offensive depth the organization put together this offseason, it remains reasonable to understand the predicament the Opening Day squad finds itself in when considering the three unexpected injuries.
Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter, the Tigers other outfield options, are about as reliable as they come at the plate. With OPS figures of .827 and .932 in 2024, respectively, there isn’t much to worry about in terms of the corner outfield. One issue which remains, however, is Carpenter’s inability to show consistent offensive production against left-handed pitching.
Carpenter’s 176 wRC+ against righties ranked sixth in baseball a year ago, behind the likes of Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Kyle Tucker, Juan Soto, and Bobby Witt Jr. – whom you could make an argument for the best five hitters in baseball. Against lefties, however, he was dismal, posting a .408 OPS and .107 batting average. However, this was only over 31 plate appearances. Put simply, A.J. Hinch chose to not play Carpenter against lefties.
This, in turn, hurt Carpenter’s development and value moving forward. He doesn’t profile as a strong defender in right field and is seen as unable to hit against lefties; thus, he can be profiled as a one-dimensional player. Though, this could be far from true. With consistent plate appearances against lefties, it is possible for Carpenter to find some success. Will he ever hit against left-handers in the same way he does against righties? No. There is room to improve, though, and solidify himself as one of the best hitters in the league.
Image: Lindsey Wasson/AP Photo
Another key to the Detroit offense will be its second-year bats. Between Colt Keith (.689 OPS in 2024), Wenceel Pérez (.683 OPS in 2024), Jace Jung (.665 OPS in 2024), Justyn-Henry Malloy (.658 OPS in 2024), Trey Sweeney (.642 OPS in 2024), and Dillon Dingler (.505 OPS in 2024), there is certainly immense potential and room for improvement.
Though Pérez is opening the season injured and Malloy and Jung failed to make the Opening Day roster, there is no doubt the Tigers will maximize their 40-man roster yet again this season. Between injury risk and poor performance, the Tigers will find ways to improve throughout the season as a result of their organizational depth.
Where this shows up the most is in the pitching staff. Tyler Holton became the poster boy for pitching chaos in 2024, Detroit’s response to injuries and arm fatigue down the latter stretch of the season. The Tigers not only enter 2025 with a healthy rotation of Tarik Skubal, Jack Flaherty, Reese Olson, Casey Mize, and Jackson Jobe, but they have various arms who can pitch more than one inning.
Some of these names include Holton (2.19 ERA in 2024), Kenta Maeda (6.09 ERA in 2024), Brant Hurter (2.58 ERA in 2024), Beau Brieske (3.59 ERA in 2024), Brenan Hanifee (1.84 ERA in 2024), Ty Madden (4.30 ERA in 2024), Keider Montero (4.76 ERA in 2024), Sawyer Gipson-Long (DNP in 2024), and Matt Manning (4.88 ERA in 2024).
This is not to mention offseason acquisitions Alex Cobb and José Urquidy, who both enter the season injured but with significant major league starting experience.
A personal favorite of these long-relief arms and potential starting pitchers is Hanifee. After putting on a show in his 29.1 major league innings in 2024, the Tigers righty entered the offseason in lieu of whether he would earn a spot on the Opening Day roster. He did just that, however, as his stuff is udderly undeniable.
Hanifee throws a 95-mph sinker with excellent run (hitting 20 inches of horizontal break often), mixing in a firm 87-mph gyro slider, 96-mph four-seamer, and 89-mph changeup which tunnels off of the sinker. This collection of pitches allows Hanifee to attack righties and lefties with nearly separate arsenals. I see no reason to predict regression from Hanifee in 2025 as long as his execution remains in tact.
Image: Robert Edwards/USA TODAY Sports
I would be remiss not to further mention AL Cy Young Award winner and pitching Triple Crown recipient Tarik Skubal. Leading American League pitchers with 18 wins, a 2.39 ERA, 228 strikeouts, and a 5.9 fWAR, Skubal was undoubtedly the best arm in the league in 2024. With his commitment to his craft, inclination to attack hitters with some of the league’s best stuff, and a relentless attitude towards improvement, there is no reason to believe Skubal couldn’t be a repeat Cy Young in 2025. He’s got my pick!
In addition to Skubal, the return of Flaherty, and a potentially lethal rotation are one-inning guys Will Vest, Tommy Kahnle, and John Brebbia. These three have shown nothing but consistency throughout their careers. Though Hinch doesn’t like to name a closer, Vest appears to be the leader in the clubhouse for the role.
Kahnle, an MLB bullpen stalwart, is a model of performance. His career 3.47 ERA over 373.2 innings should carry over to the Tigers in 2025, if not better, as he works with Chris Fetter and co. Notable is Kahnle’s changeup, a pitch which ranked the best in the offspeed category in all of baseball a year ago. He used it at an absurd 73% rate last year, including a stretch of 61-straight (it somehow induced 10 strikeouts in that span!). Its horizontal depth, running an average of 12 inches with a frisbee-like shape, causes for swings and misses for hitters from both sides of the plate.
The Tigers will be tested early in the season, opening the year with three-game sets against the 2024 World Series Champion Dodgers and one of league’s best pitching staffs in the Seattle Mariners. Expect some pitching duels out of the gates during the season, but keep your eye on the Tigers’ offense. They will be tested early, and if they show signs of life, even in the face of injuries, there will be plenty to be optimistic about as the season progresses.
Player to Watch #1: LF Riley Greene
I was talking with a friend recently on who the face of Detroit sports is right now. And no, I am not going to say it’s Riley Greene…yet. In my opinion, Cade Cunningham takes that title (with a shoutout to Jared Goff since fans will be frustrated with me if I don’t).
However, this title feels in reach for Greene. He has shown clear improvements each year since he arrived in the bigs, particularly in barrel rate, chase rate, and launch angle. All three of these are the subjects of points Greene has verbally made in interviews. He’s not only identifying where he needs to improve, but he’s actually executed such improvements up to this point in his career.
Barrel Rate: 60th percentile (2022) → 74th percentile (2023) → 90th percentile (2024)
Chase Rate: 61st percentile (2022) → 64th percentile (2023) → 85th percentile (2024)
Launch Angle: 2.8 degrees (2022) → 6.6 degrees (2023) → 12.2 degrees (2024)
With another round of improvements similar to those he has previously shown, Greene would be in line with the best hitters in baseball. While naturally barrel rate will increase with a stronger launch angle, the improvements appear intentional (Hinch’s favorite word). And with those improvements have come results, increasing his wOBA from .303 to .344 to .355 over the past three years.
There is no reason to believe Greene won’t be an All-Star yet again in 2025.
Player to Watch #2: RHP Jackson Jobe
For MLB’s No. 5-ranked prospect, let’s do a deep dive into what makes Jackson Jobe so good and what type of potential he really has.
Now that we have publicly accessible pitch data on Jobe due to his small stint in the big leagues in 2024, we can dig into his mix. However, understand that this was late in the season and followed over 91 innings in the minor leagues, so there is certainly more ability in the tank.
Right out of the gate, it’s clear Jobe has an elite fastball. He sits 97mph with an ability to get up to low 100s, nearly reaching 23 inches of induced vertical break (if you’re unfamiliar, IVB represents the amount the pitch would move upwards if there were no gravity at play OR the pitch’s theoretical rise). He averaged 17.3 inches of IVB in his four innings at the MLB level, an above average figure. This combination of velocity and vertical movement represents a four-seamer in the same realm as Taj Bradley, Dylan Cease, and Gerrit Cole.
His second-most thrown pitch is a gyro-spin cutter, which plays well alongside his sweeper. Coming out of nearly an identical tunnel, the cutter often sees hitters miss over top of it after seeing his above-average IVB fastball. This is followed up by a hitter’s adjustment downward (to cutter level) before dropping the sweeper which falls off the table. With such a high spin (2500 rpm on the cutter, 3000 rpm on the sweeper) and identical release angles, the two pitches remain in each other’s tunnel until the last possible moment.
The fastball and sweeper alone would be enough to generate swings and misses, but Jobe’s cutter takes his arsenal to a different level, not allowing hitters to adjust towards one pitch or the other.
Jobe’s sweeper isn’t fair, put simply. It ranks within the top 21 in horizontal break (17.3 inches on average) in the MLB. Among the other 20 pitchers, only Lucas Sims (WAS), Ethan Roberts (CHC), and Brooks Raley (free agent) have higher average sweeper spin rates.
While there are various angular components which determine late break, high spin certainly helps with the feature. As a result, Jobe’s combination of late break and amount of break on this pitch is in the very upper echelon of pitchers in the world.
Finally, Jobe mixes in a changeup. Visually, the pitch has so much vertical depth that it appears almost as a curveball. It breaks 14.4 inches horizontally on average, marking nearly a 32-inch difference in break from his sweeper. Though maybe not his best weapon, Jobe’s changeup still profiles as above average.
What does this analysis mean? Jobe should rank high in Stuff+ in the majors in 2025, he will induce whiffs, and will strikeout hitters at an elite rate.
These components of Jobe’s profile appear clear. What remains unanswered is his ability to stay healthy, especially as a starter in the throes of a lengthy MLB season. In his professional career, the righty has already dealt with two season-shortening injuries (luckily, they haven’t involved his arm specifically). If he can find health and length, there is no reason Jobe couldn’t be one of the better pitchers in baseball with time and experience.
All said, Jobe was rewarded for his efforts in Spring Training with a spot in the rotation to open the 2025 season. More importantly, he is healthy to start the year. Expect a strong Rookie of the Year campaign from Jobe (and be sure to bet the over on 0.5 Red Sox/Tigers to win ROTY).
Player to Watch #3: RHP Casey Mize
Coming off of a season in which Casey Mize finished in 11th percentile for pitching run value, it seems unlikely that the Tigers former first rounder will ever be able to capture a level of play which corresponding with his draft stock. However, a Spring Training in which Mize was forced to compete for a spot in the Opening Day rotation and allowed only four earned runs over 19 innings with 25 strikeouts led to a lot of media attention surrounding the 27-year-old’s potential in 2025.
Mize earned his spot and looks primed to start in either game three or game four of the season. How good could Mize be, though, as he enters this season healthy as opposed to last?
On Opening Day a year ago, Mize was still recovering from Tommy John surgery and pitched in a very limited fashion early on. Even as he regained health, he never really appeared to get into a groove throughout the season. Not one of his pitches stood out as above average, but frankly, he may have never been fully healthy.
With a full offseason under his belt, Mize enters 2025 with routine under his belt and a bid of confidence. Though I am still skeptical of his ability to wipe out hitters with amazing stuff, both Mize’s splitter and slides looked a lot sharper than in years past this Spring Training. His fastball also appeared a bit firmer, and Mize attacked hitters with the four-seamer more than he did in 2024.
Listening to Jobe discuss the mentality which Skubal brings to the pitching staff, of coming after hitters and trusting in his stuff, led me to wonder if this type of mentality would benefit Mize. Could Mize still be a power arm who relies on his stuff or does he have to be a bit more crafty and focus on painting the corners?
Just like much of the 2025 Tigers, Mize remains a bit of a question mark. Nonetheless, Detroit fans will be eager to see just what kind of potential Mize has in the tank. In a world where he suddenly turns into the first overall pick he was expected to be, the Tigers would not be far from compiling a top-three pitching staff in baseball.
Position Group to Watch: Right-Handed Batters
With a lockdown pitching staff, Tigers fans will be keeping their on the offense in 2025, particularly right-handed bats. Last year, Detroit posted a .693 OPS against right-handed pitchers and a .659 mark against lefties. To further this disparity in terms of right-handed hitters, lefties Greene and Keith produced fairly well against same-sided arms. As a collective, Tigers right-handed hitters were poor.
Wild Card hero Andy Ibáñez was one of two bright spots, hitting .292 with an .802 OPS against lefties. Given the Tigers will show down against Blake Snell to open the season, expect Ibáñez to be the Opening Day leadoff man and to take on that role against left-handed starters throughout the season.
The other was Spencer Torkelson, whose .798 OPS against lefties was nothing mind-blowing but still a reliable figure, considering the Tigers’ former first overall pick had a clear down year.
Even in the farm system, the Tigers have a shortage of right-handed bats. Top hitting prospects Max Clark, Kevin McGonigle, and Bryce Rainer are all left-handed, while the next three hitters as ranked by MLB Pipeline are either switch hitters or lefties (Liranzo, Josue Briceño, and Jung). Outside of Hao-Yu Lee, the Tigers’ right-handers are few and far between.
Image: LM Otero/AP Photo
What Detroit will need heading into the 2025 season is better production from returning right-handers, first and foremost. Jake Rogers (.499 OPS against lefties in 2024), Dillon Dingler (.360 OPS against lefties in 2024), and Javier Báez (.423 OPS against lefties in 2024) will be key pieces who must improve in this department. Last year’s production from these three, who will remain contributors in 2025, was unacceptable.
The addition of Gleyber Torres should certainly help (.811 OPS against lefties in 2024), who has mashed lefties throughout his career. Overall, however, there is no reason to believe Detroit will make any significant improvements against left-handed pitchers if the former three don’t improve.
2025 Record Prediction: 84-78
Even with Detroit’s offseason additions, we must recognize that many of the Tigers’ 86 wins in 2024 came from the final 31-11 stretch, something which will be difficult to repeat. The team improved this offseason, but early Spring Training injuries on the offensive side of the ball also leave Detroit in a difficult to position to improve their record.
That said, 84 wins feels like a complacent take on the Tigers’ win total for 2025. With a pitching staff that could be the best in baseball, 90 wins seems in reach, which would guarantee a playoff spot.
It’s clear early on, however, that Detroit will have to fight for wins yet again. The offense will need to continue hitting in the clutch if the Tigers are to make the playoffs. Though my season prediction model has them missing the playoffs by two games, I see the Tigers as having the most upside to make a run of any of my non-playoff teams. A World Series berth may seem out of reach, but in a weak American League, the pennant is up for grabs. Expect the Tigers to remain competitive and give the Guardians and Twins a run for their money at the top of the AL Central.
Categories: 2025 Season Preview, Articles, Season Analysis
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