Image: (New York Yankees/Facebook)
2024 Record: 94-68 (.580 win%, 1st in Division)
2025 Payroll: 309, 434 ,607 (2nd)
Steamer 2025 Projected Top 10 Hitter WAR
1. RF, Aaron Judge, .276 AVG/.402 OBP/.584 SLG, .412 wOBA 6.7 fWAR
2. SS, Anthony Volpe, .244 AVG/.312 OBP/.404 SLG, .312 wOBA, 3.7 fWAR
3. C, Austin Wells, .233 AVG/.316 OBP/.417 SLG, .320 wOBA, 3.6 fWAR
4. 2B, Jazz Chisholm Jr., .248 AVG/.316 OBP/.453 SLG, .330 wOBA, 3.3 fWAR
5. CF, Cody Bellinger, .256 AVG/.319 OBP/.444 SLG, .327 wOBA, 2.7 fWAR
6. LF, Jasson Dominguez, .252 AVG/.328 OBP/.423 SLG, .327 wOBA, 1.9 fWAR
7. 1B, Paul Goldschmidt, .254 AVG/.328 OBP/.437 SLG, .331 wOBA, 1.9 fWAR
8. UTIL, Oswaldo Cabrera, .245 AVG/.307 OBP/.400 SLG, .308 wOBA, 1.2 fWAR
9. CF, Trent Grisham, .213 AVG/.312 OBP/.387 SLG, .308 wOBA, 0.9 fWAR
10. INF, Oswald Peraza, .233 AVG/.303 OBP/.380 SLG, .300 wOBA, 0.8 fWAR
Steamer 2025 Projected Top 5 Starting Pitcher WAR:
1. LHP Max Fried, 176.0 IP/3.42 ERA/1.23 WHIP, 3.3 fWAR
2. LHP Carlos Rodon, 178.2 IP/3.97 ERA/1.19 WHIP, 2.7 fWAR
3. RHP Clarke Schmidt, 147.0 IP/4.08 ERA/1.28 WHIP, 1.9 fWAR
4. RHP Marcus Stroman, 162.2 IP/4.55 ERA/1.43 WHIP, 1.2 fWAR
5. RHP Will Warren, 121.0 IP/4.13 ERA/1.32 WHIP, 1.1 fWAR
Steamer 2025 Projected Top 4 Relievers:
1. RHP Fernando Cruz, 61.0 IP/3.63 ERA/1.18 WHIP, 0.7 fWAR
2. RHP Devin Williams, 63.0 IP/3.52 ERA/1.22 WHIP, 0.6 fWAR
3. RHP Mark Leiter Jr., 58.0 IP/3.52 ERA/1.23 WHIP, 0.5 fWAR
4. RHP Luke Weaver, 68.0 IP/ 3.74 ERA/1.18 WHIP, 0.4 fWAR
What Does Baseball Mean to This City?
The passion of a fanbase is inexorably tied to expectations. Within the fanbases of bottom dwellers, apathy permeates all sentiment, drowning away misfortune with a lack of hope. When the team is expected to be bad, it is easy to build up guardrails, emotional barriers to any form of failure. After witnessing a blown save, or game-altering error, one can always fall back on “well, they weren’t expected to be good, anyway”. But as a team improves, passion inflames a fanbase, as hopes and expectations are built up.
No franchise has higher expectations than that of the New York Yankees, conditioned to expect perfection by years of storied history, which could only be characterized as Yankee Exceptionalism. The Yankee fan expects – demands – to win the World Series every year as they once did in the 50s, 70s, and 90s, bolstered by the prestige and wealth of the organization, which far surpassed any other franchise in Major League Baseball pre-private equity and hedge fund money.
These expectations have only amplified the sting of the past 15 years, which has seen the Yankees reach the playoffs 11 times, each trip invariably ending with a crushing defeat. The Yankees have not had a losing record since 1992, allowing the fanbase to be hopeful for every season as a possibility to re-establish the glory of old, only for that hope to be extinguished year after year.
None of these defeats were as devastating as last year’s, though, and even more so in retrospect. The Yankees had prime Aaron Judge, the only year of Juan Soto, and a healthy Gerrit Cole and Giancarlo Stanton for the playoffs, yet still could not get over the hump.
2024’s World Series loss was not only crushing in circumstance, but in fashion; the pictures of Aaron Judge’s dropped fly ball and the miscommunication between Gerrit Cole and Anthony Rizzo at first base will be images seared into the baseball fanbase for the foreseeable future, recognized as the epitome of choking on the biggest stage.
The offseason was just as tumultuous; Juan Soto’s defection to the Mets only served as a kick-me-while-I’m-down moment for the Yankees, who then had to pivot to various other options to replace nearly half of their lineup.
Paired with the injuries that have struck the pitching staff in Spring Training, the sentiment of Yankee fandom has wildly swung from mourning over losing Soto, anger directed towards the front office, anger towards Soto, melancholy over the missed opportunity from 2024, hope for the Yankees’ new additions, to despair over the injury bug that has already taken hold in the 2025 Yankees. All of this sets the stage for what feels like the sequel to a movie that ends with the main party scattered and defeated, forcing them to regroup under completely different circumstances; like the ending to the Empire Strikes Back, or the Fellowship of the Ring.
Despite the superstitions about the baseball gods, though, baseball is not a deterministic sport; there is no omniscient entity controlling outcomes. The Yankees control their own destiny; for them to throw the Ring into the fires of Mount Doom and victoriously sail off to the Undying Lands, they must recover from the sting of recent events.
In Which Direction is This Team Trending?
The span of months reaching from the beginning of the World Series to the end of the offseason in some ways turned out to be one of the most pivotal in the modern history of the Yankees. The team went from a run to the World Series, carried by Giancarlo Stanton and Juan Soto – breaking an 15-year long drought, and going the farthest a they have gone in the Aaron Judge era – to suffering a brutal loss to the Dodgers, having Soto lured away by the Mets, losing Gerrit Cole to Tommy John Surgery, Giancarlo Stanton for most of the season, and remaking the identity of the team in the process.
This remaking was direly needed, as the team had gotten rigid and unathletic, without much versatility. They were carried by the all-time duo of Judge and Soto last year, but the rest of their offense was pitiful for a large portion of the season. If they had stayed the course, they would have turned into the old, stagnant Yankees of the early 2010s.
The Yankees have a solid young core, but their true championship window lives and dies with the fate of their older players, like Aaron Judge and Gerrit Cole. Judge is entering his age-33 season, while Gerrit Cole, who is 34, will miss the year in its entirety. If any of their young offensive players like Jasson Dominguez, Austin Wells, or Anthony Volpe pan out, then the Yankees are in a much better shape.
Furthermore, with the signing of Max Fried and emergence of Luis Gil and Clarke Schmidt as rotation options, this current window may have been extended a year or two, as the Yankees are not as reliant on Aaron Judge and Gerrit Cole to perform at MVP/Cy Young levels.
While Aaron Judge somehow seems to get better every year, one cannot expect him to produce 11 WAR year after year well into his mid-30s. Their current championship window likely encompasses the next three years, where Judge is expected to still be an elite contributor. This year’s chances are already severely dampened with the Cole injury, who provided much-needed postseason stability for the Yankees.
2024-25 Offseason Recap:
Much of the offseason focus has been placed on Soto, and rightly so. His combination with Judge was lethal last year; having the greatest right-handed hitter of all time batting behind a .419 OBP will do that. I for one never expected him to leave the Yankees. Soto seemed to be a player who relished the spotlight, the pressure that comes with being a Yankee, and his desire to win and get paid handsomely were standards that no team had a better track record of than the Yankees.
Ultimately, he opted to go for the Mets on a 15-year, $765 million deal, with escalators that will likely take the deal to $805 million. The Yankees’ offer was 16-years for $760 million – more than fair, considering it was still the biggest sports contract ever, and in terms of monetary value, negligible to the Mets’ offer (what is the difference between having $760 million and $805 million?). If I was told before free agency that these would be the final offers, I would have said that he would accept the Yankees’ offer.
Yet, he did not, and many have tried to nail down the reason for this, from the money, to the story about the Yankees’ security guard, to the Yankees’ unwillingness to give him a complimentary family suite, and other ideas, like the Mets giving a clothes allowance to his mother. In the end, though, my guess is that it had to do with the structure of each franchise.
Soto and Scott Boras seemed to want to make the teams and owners acquiesce to their every demand, from keeping the teams in the dark about other offers, making them fly to meet them in California, and to demanding a suite and other perks. Soto wanted his status to essentially be on the level of the owner, and Hal Steinbrenner and the Yankees, an “old-money” franchise rooted in tradition and custom, refused to give it to Soto – just as they had not given the same status to Derek Jeter or Aaron Judge.
Steve Cohen is one of the newer owners in baseball, and the Mets do not have the same deeply-ingrained tradition to uproot. His relationship with the players is more hands-on and involved, while Hal Steinbrenner tends to be removed and give the players space. Another aspect to this is money; Steve Cohen has a massive, $20 billion hedge fund fortune unmatched by Hal Steinbrenner, whose money mostly comes from the team itself, giving more certainty to the ability to spend in the future.
It is hard to fault the Yankees for losing out on Soto, and their pivot was equally quick. They signed Max Fried to a 8-year, $218 million contract from the Braves, a $27 million AAV. While this is a long deal for a 31 year-old pitcher who has had injury concerns (he had a forearm strain last year, sometimes a predictor of an elbow injury), his repertoire relies on deception and soft contact, not maximizing velocity and whiff rate.
If he stays healthy (which is unlikely – I expect all pitchers to eventually get Tommy John/internal brace eventually) Fried should age well, as velocity is what typically fades as a pitcher ages, not deception. There is a chance they signed Fried because of the concerns about Cole’s elbow, but either way, it is good they have another ace-caliber pitcher to fill in (3.07 career ERA).
After the Fried signing, the Yankees continued to bolster the pitching, trading Nestor Cortes and prospect Caleb Durbin for closer Devin Williams. Williams only has one year left before free agency, but the back end of the bullpen needed another piece with the departure of Clay Holmes, and Williams provides a major upgrade. As one of the dominant closers of recent years, he comes with a devastating changeup known as the Airbender.
This pitch has earned its infamy, as it may be the best in the game. Last year, it averaged 19.4 inches of horizontal break towards the batter, and paired with a fastball that he likes to use up in the zone, the changeup does even more damage.
Outgoing were Caleb Durbin and Nestor Cortes; the former had been getting some buzz about being in the Yankees’ infield to start 2025, and the latter had been on the ropes for a while, being pushed out of the rotation towards the end of last year. Cortes will be remembered for the walk off grand slam he gave up to Freddie Freeman in game 1 of the World Series, yet by all accounts, he was a good Yankee, providing multiple years of being an above average starting pitcher. With their newfound starting pitching depth, the Yankees had pitching to spare.
Next was the acquisition of Cody Bellinger, who the Cubs gave to the Yankees essentially for free – they pried Cody Poteet, a quadruple-A starter, and $5 million in salary from the Yankees. I wrote about Bellinger here, but in short, his profile calls for some positive regression in Yankee Stadium. He had to sacrifice exit velocity for contact to salvage his career, leading to his 2023 success, but fly balls proliferated for him last year, disadvantageous for Wrigley Field.
He seems to be trying to up his hard hit metrics, which will be a positive if his K% does not rise back up to the upper 20s, as it did before his swing change. A possible reason for his decline pre-swing change was a shoulder injury he suffered with the Dodgers, so if he is fully healthy and can regain some harder contact without completely sacrificing contact, he will be better for it. Yankee Stadium’s short right field porch means more home runs and less average, as fewer line drives will be able to land in the outfield.
They rounded out their acquisitions by bringing in Paul Goldschmidt, the 37-year old first baseman, for one year and $12.5 dollars. This is a relatively low-risk signing, but at this stage, it is not a very high reward one either. Last year saw significant regression, particularly against right handed pitching – the Yankees’ hope is likely that he will provide a steady, defensively-sound presence at first with a league-average bat. Many of the projections say he can be more than that, and he did show promise with a strong second half last year while maintaining a high Hard-Hit%.
Other moves included moving off backup catcher Jose Trevino, sending him to the Reds for reliever Fernando Cruz and catcher Alex Jackson. Cruz’s splitter is the best in the league; its 59.3% whiff% is the highest in the league out of any pitch. (Mark Leiter Jr.’s splitter was actually second out of any pitch, with a 56.5% whiff rate). Cruz has struggled putting everything together, though, particularly struggling with giving up home runs. The Yankees have shown proficiency in harnessing the potential within pitchers, so this move was likely prudent, given the catching depth of the organization.
Given the circumstances, the offseason was very good for the Yankees, who filled out their team with depth that they have not had in many years. They remade their identity from an un-athletic, old, defensively inept team with two elite talents at the top pulling all the weight to a team with variety around the lineup; versatility, speed, and the ability to manufacture offense outside of Aaron Judge. The feeling around non-Yankee fans is that the team will be worse because Soto left, but very few realize how bad the rest of the team was last year, and how much of a difference their new additions will make.
2025 Regular Season Preview:
An element of the missed opportunity of last season was that the Yankees were relatively free of injuries, really for the first time of the Judge era. Gerrit Cole missed the first half of the year, Clarke Schmidt most of the second half, and Stanton missed a month in the summer, but otherwise, they were healthy. Before the 2025 season has even started, the same cannot be said, as Cole, reigning rookie of the year Luis Gil, and Giancarlo Stanton all suffered significant injuries.
Cole is done for the year, and Gil and Stanton will probably be sidelined for the majority of the season. But the Yankees’ organizational depth seems to be in a better spot than it has in past years, and they will get a chance to showcase this.
Firstly, Ben Rice has appeared to have won the DH role in Spring Training, and I am a zealous believer in Ben Rice. While his numbers from last season appear poor on the surface, the underlyings tell a different story. His weighted on base average (wOBA) was .269, while his xwOBA was .340, the large disparity indicating that for the quality of contact he made (launch angle, exit velocity) he should have been much more successful. Furthermore, he exhibited elite place discipline, with a low 20.6% chase rate, and he barreled balls at a high rate.
This did not translate into success, indicating bad luck, but he added muscle in the offseason and has come into Spring Training hitting the ball harder than ever – he has had career high exit velocities 5 different times this spring, meaning some of those balls that he hit hard last year but were caught may turn into doubles or home runs this year. His versatility is important as well; he can provide another option at catcher, and a lefty option at first base, in case Goldschmidt’s struggles against righties continue.
Rice continues a theme of young, homegrown players stepping into important roles on the team, which also includes Anthony Volpe and Austin Wells. Offensively, Volpe has not lived up to expectations in his first two seasons, hitting 20 home runs in his rookie year, only to focus on contact in his sophomore season, but failing to maintain either. In the playoffs, he began to swing harder, and saw results. Volpe has carried this over so far in the spring, showcasing harder contact, which leads to more pulled balls. The common denominator in his struggles has been his plate discipline, though; he actually regressed in 2024, swinging at more pitches out of the zone and less in the zone, his O-Swing% rising by 2% and Z-Swing% dropping by 3%. He would often go weeks without walking; this is a pivotal year for him to take a jump to being more than a glove-first shortstop.
Austin Wells broke out last year with a stretch of performance in the middle of the year that rivaled any other catcher in the game. Paired with elite framing and above average blocking, he has already turned into an extremely valuable player, despite his 2024 being bookended by slumps. What’s more, he will lead off this year against right handers.
A leadoff catcher may seem odd at first glance – the old-school baseball mindset goes that a speedy, middle infielder or outfielder should lead off – but Wells provides on-base, with a 89th percentile walk rate. Getting on base in front of Aaron Judge is much more important than having speed in front of him. In fact, having a base-stealer hit in front of the best hitter of the lineup essentially just neutralizes their speed; a stolen base in front of Judge could incentivize the opposition to pitch around him, and if the runner is caught stealing, then that is one less RBI opportunity for Judge. Interestingly, after I wrote this, Aaron Boone echoed this sentiment in his March 25th interview with Talkin’ Yanks.
In a team trying to reinvigorate itself with youth, Jazz Chisholm perfectly embodies this transition, with his athleticism, defensive versatility, and electric bat. The Yankees acquired him at the deadline last year for a package centered around catcher Agustin Ramirez, and he immediately made an impact. While last year was his best overall season of his career (2.7 WAR), there is clearly more potential in his bat.
He provides plus power and speed yet often struggles with plate discipline and contact, resulting in high strikeout rates. Moving back to second base, his best position, and finding stability both in the lineup and within the clubhouse should set Jazz up to have a better year once more; after all, he is entering his age-27 year. The best bet for the Yankees is to leave Jazz in the 5-6th spot in the lineup, allowing him to showcase his power and his speed.
Out of the positions that have not yet been discussed and do not feature a player on the Player to Watch list is third base, and rightly so, as it has not been determined who will be the third baseman. This has been a point of contention among Yankee fans, who believe the front office should have been more aggressive in acquiring another right handed infielder. The current plan is ostensibly a platoon between Oswaldo Cabrera and Oswald Peraza, a fine defensive combination, but offensively leaves something to be desired.
It is unclear whether the Yankees’ refusal to pursue a third baseman was born out of austerity or fear of the competitive implications of the CBT threshold. The Yankees are brushing right near it, and staying under means they do not have to face as harsh financial and competitive penalties (e.g. losing international bonus pool money, draft picks).
If you are going to go over the tax, then you should go over it by a lot, and there aren’t any options available to warrant that expenditure. Even so, the decision to wait until the deadline to see if anything opens up can often bite teams in the back. Last year, the deadline prices were sky-high, as buyers were more desperate for players. Executives such as Andrew Friedman recognize this, hence the Dodgers’ offseason aggressiveness.
The rotation will also be open for new opportunities. Fried, Rodon, and Schmidt are guaranteed spots. Carlos Rodon bounced back last year after a rough 2023, but to live up to his contract, he will be expected to do more. He seems to have introduced a sinker this spring, a pitch that could complement his heavy 4-seam and slider usage. The difference between his two middling Yankee years and his dominant years in 2022 and 2021 in San Francisco and Chicago was his fastball, which had run values of 19 and 29, respectively.
His fastball run value dropped to -4 in 2023 and 1 in 2024. The velocity has not dropped off, yet its effectiveness has, forcing him to reevaluate his pitch mix. His changeup actually had the highest run value of all his pitches, yet he only threw it 13%; part of this may be due to the batter’s expectancy of a fastball, but either way, he should consider throwing it more.
Meanwhile, Schmidt will begin the year on the IL, but is only due to miss a start. If not for a lat injury in the middle of last year, Clarke Schmidt would have cemented himself as one of the better starters in the AL; he had seemed to finally get over the humps of his struggles with third time around the order and against lefties. His OPS against left-handed hitters dropped from .875 in 2023 to .689 in 2024, and before getting injured, he had a 2.52 ERA. His repertoire utilizes a lot of side-to-side movement, and he does not blow anyone by with velocity, but he still manages to create whiffs.
The rest of the rotation is not in as good of a spot, though. Marcus Stroman had a difficult season last year, and as a contact pitcher, he was hurt by the Yankees’ porous infield defense. The OAA of the defense behind Marcus Stroman in 2024 was -16, the worst out of any pitcher in the entire league.
As a result, there may be some reason to expect improvement, but even still, Stroman still has trouble missing bats, which is integral for pitchers in this day and age. Will Warren has been a good story of the spring; after he got roughed up last year, he seemed to have refined his arsenal. He has drawn comparisons to Michael King this year as a result of his pitch mix and arm angle, and could be a possible breakout candidate this year.
The bullpen lost Tommy Kahnle and Clay Holmes, but the addition of Devin Williams and emergence of Luke Weaver and Tim Hill late in the year may counteract these losses with a steadier late-game combo. There are other wild cards, including Jonathan Loaisiga, Fernando Cruz, and Mark Leiter Jr., all of whom have potential (all of them grade out highly stuff-wise) but have struggled with putting it together. There are some other younger pitchers like Clayton Beeter and Yoendrys Gomez who have shown promise in the spring. Knowing the Yankees, the bullpen will round into shape as the season progresses.
Player to Watch #1: RF, Aaron Judge
This preview has not yet mentioned Aaron Judge, despite his importance to the team. The only thing that matters for Judge is if he stays healthy, and he has in recent years, his only missed time being because of a freak injury at Dodger Stadium. Moving back to right field should help him defensively, as his arm can now be more in play, and he does not have to cover as much ground. He played a serviceable center field, but only did so out of necessity.
The Yankees cannot push him in the field considering the importance of his bat. He has nothing left to prove in the regular season, but he likely has a chip on his shoulder about the postseason, where he was clearly pressing to perform. Without him hitting in the postseason, the Yankees can all but kiss their World Series chances goodbye. Last year, it took lights-out performances from Giancarlo Stanton and Soto to overcome his postseason struggles. Despite this, the future hall of famer seems to get better every year, and now has Cody Bellinger for protection behind him in the lineup, setting him up for another big season.
Player to Watch #2: LF, Jasson Dominguez
Despite suffering from a case of prospect fatigue across the general MLB discourse (he made his debut in 2023, remember), the performance of Jasson Dominguez might turn the fortunes of the Yankees by the greatest magnitude, whether positive or negative. If he fulfills his potential, he can turn this lineup from being above average to truly dangerous. If he does not, though, the lineup can quickly begin to resemble that of last year, with bottom of the order that is completely lifeless.
Dominguez’s importance for the Yankees’ long term plans cannot be overstated; including him, Judge, Wells, and Volpe are the only hitters who are under contract for more than a couple years. Judge is getting up there in age, and Volpe and Wells are not elite offensive contributors, so if Dominguez can turn into a legit bat while making pre-arb salary, it will keep their current window open slightly longer and allow for more financial flexibility.
Throughout his career, in both the minors and his stints in the majors, he has displayed elite walk rate, while hitting the ball hard and providing plus baserunning. There have been questions about his fielding, yet those concerns are likely overblown, and there is no reason to think he will not grow accustomed to left field eventually.
Player to Watch #3: SP, Clarke Schmidt
Simply put, Clarke Schimdt has to pitch well and stay healthy for the Yankees to get through the regular season in good playoff position. Max Fried and Carlos Rodon’s performances are somewhat predictable if they stay healthy, but Schmidt has the ability to give the rotation a semblance of the depth the Yankees thought it would have before the latest wave of injuries. If he carries over his proficiency in putting away lefties and going deep into games that he had in the first half of the season, Clarke Schmidt could be looking at a trip to the All-Star game.
Part of his success against lefties last year was his increase in cutter usage when facing a left handed hitter. He threw it 42% of the time against lefties, while only 27% of the time against righties, instead opting for his sweeper more often. Changing pitch usage based on the handedness of the batter is something that the Yankees have utilized recently, helping elevate pitchers such as Schmidt, Michael King, and Will Warren.
In the second half of last year, he saw a general decline in effectiveness, walking more batters and giving up harder contact. As a result, his post-injury ERA was 3.65, which, while solid, would not make the same difference in the Yankee rotation as a 2.52 would.
Position Group to Watch: Starting Pitchers
With Cole and Gil down, the starting pitching went from being this team’s biggest strength to possibly its greatest vulnerability. Now, there is much more pressure on the trio of Fried, Rodon, and Schmidt, as the rest of the rotation will be rounded out with wildcards such as Will Warren, Carlos Carrasco, and Marcus Stroman. The rotation had guys step up last year, and the Yankees always have a knack for finding pitching, but any more injuries will be difficult to surmount.
In addition, one aspect of the Cole injury that has been overlooked will be its impact on the playoffs. It may cost give-or-take 3 wins in the regular season (Cole’s projected 3-4 WAR minus his replacement’s 0-1 WAR), but in the playoffs, Cole was the steadying presence, the only starting pitcher who could truly be relied on for a solid outing. Without him, it becomes all the more difficult to defeat gauntlet lineups they may encounter, such as the Dodgers or the Rangers.
2025 Record Prediction: 90-72
Writing this preview has left me more optimistic about the future, and to a certain extent, the present of the Yankees. They may not be world-beaters this year, but will still be able to contend in the AL, which, while improved, is still weak compared to the NL. The team, as currently constructed and barring any breakouts, does not have an overwhelming strength in any area with the injuries to the rotation; the lineup will be better than most expect after losing Soto, but likely not such a strength that it can carry them to a World Series.
Even so, the Yankees should not be completely counted out. I expect the battle with Boston for the division to come down to the last few games of the regular season, but the Yankees do have the strength to win the AL East once again this year. They are still a top 5-7 team in the league and a top 1-3 team in the AL, and with the variance of the small sample size postseason, anything can happen. Here’s to our hopes being fulfilled this time.
Categories: 2025 Season Preview, Analysis, Season Analysis
M-SABR 
Great post!