Image: (Darren Yamashita/Imagn Images)
2024 Record: 83 -79 (.512 win%, 3rd in Division)
2025 Payroll: $183,625,000 (12th)
Steamer 2025 Projected Top 10 Hitter WAR
1. RF Kyle Tucker, .275 AVG/.365 OBP/.500 SLG, 4.1 fWAR
2. SS Dansby Swanson, .244 AVG/.315 OBP/.401 SLG, 3.4 fWAR
3. 2B Nico Hoerner, .278 AVG/.338 OBP/.387 SLG, 3.1 fWAR
4. LF Ian Happ, .245 AVG/.340 OBP/.424 SLG, 2.4 fWAR
5. CF Pete Crow-Armstrong, .243 AVG/.297 OBP/.404 SLG, 2.0 fWAR
6. 3B Matt Shaw, .245 AVG/.314 OBP/.402 SLG, 1.8 fWAR
7. DH Seiya Suzuki, .256 AVG/.339 OBP/.440 SLG, 1.6 fWAR
8. C Carson Kelly, .235 AVG/310 OBP/.383 SLG, 1.5 fWAR
9. 1B Michael Busch, .235 AVG/.321 OBP/.415 SLG, 1.2 fWAR
10. C Miguel Amaya, .243 AVG/.315 OBP/.394 SLG, 1.2 fWAR
Steamer 2025 Projected Top 5 Starting Pitcher WAR:
1. LHP Shota Imanaga, 178.0 IP/3.69 ERA/1.15 WHIP, 2.9 fWAR
2. LHP Justin Steele, 168.2 IP/3.58 ERA/1.21 WHIP, 2.7 fWAR
3. LHP Matthew Boyd, 134.0 IP/3.93 ERA/X1.25 WHIP, 1.7 fWAR
4. RHP Jameson Taillon, 167.2 IP/4.47 ERA/1.29 WHIP, 1.3 fWAR
5. RHP Ben Brown, 53.0 IP/3.42 ERA/1.19 WHIP, 0.8 fWAR
(RHP Javier Assad will open the season on the IL so Ben Brown will start the year as the 5th starter)
Steamer 2025 Projected Top 4 Relievers:
1. RHP Ryan Pressly, 61.0 IP/3.44 ERA/1.22 WHIP, 0.5 fWAR
2. LHP Caleb Thielbar, 56.0 IP/3.67 ERA/1.23 WHIP, 0.4 fWAR
3. RHP Nate Pearson, 63.0 IP/3.85 ERA/1.2 WHIP, 0.3 fWAR
4. LHP Luke Little, 40.0 IP/3.18 ERA/1.31 WHIP, 0.3 fWAR
What Does Baseball Mean to The Northside?
In another year removed from the 2016 World Series drought breaking run, the Cubbies continue to be a beloved part of Chicago summers despite their lack of postseason success since. They haven’t been to the playoffs since the expanded 2020 Wild Card, but Wrigley will always be packed when the Loveable Losers are in town. Cubs fans are some of the most dedicated fans in MLB, and it’s a shame that the team success hasn’t exactly backed up expectations, but that could all change this year.
In Which Direction is This Team Trending?
As the NL Central continues to get worse and worse, expectations rise for the Cubs every year. Over the past few years, Jed Hoyer has made some nice moves to add talent to the roster following the 2021 teardown. Seiya Suzuki, Dansby Swanson, Shota Imanaga, Michael Busch, and more were acquired to make a push for the playoffs. Despite finishing the last two seasons just short of this mark with an 83-79 record, the talent baseline is there to remain in contention for the NL Central
The young talent is also a huge point of emphasis for the Cubs. They have 7 Top 100 prospects according to MLB Pipeline, including 5 knocking at the doorstep of the Bigs in AAA, and one who made the big league roster, as well as Pete Crow Armstrong who graduated from the prospect list last year. With all this young talent, the Cubs are destined (hopefully) for an upward trajectory, whether it comes from these prospects producing at the big league level or more of them being traded for Major League talent.
2024-25 Offseason Recap:
In an interesting turn of events, the Cubs managed to cut payroll from the 2024 season, but still upgrade the roster. The expiration of Yan Gomes’ and Kyle Hendricks’ contract, as well as the trade of Cody Bellinger allowed for this, resulting in 50 million off the books compared to last opening day.
With all this money freed up, many fans expected moves for the top end free agents, and although none of those names came to the Northside, the Cubs still had a successful offseason. After being connected to names like Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso, and Tanner Scott deep into free agency, the largest contract given out by the Cubs this offseason was the 2 year 29 million deal they reached with Matthew Boyd to bolster the rotation.
They also added plenty of bullpen depth to a unit which struggled to find consistency last year, trading for Ryan Pressley, Eli Morgan, and Ryan Brasier, and signing lefty Caleb Thielbar to a one year deal. This was the biggest area of need coming into the offseason, and these veteran arms will hope to stabilize the ‘pen.
The biggest move of the offseason came from another trade with the Houston Astros. The lineup had been lacking a true star since the 2016 core, and Jed Hoyer added one of the better outfielders in baseball in Kyle Tucker. Despite the trade including high upside players (including Cam Smith who just made the Astros opening day roster), Tucker will provide much needed pop to the Cubs lineup. He is on the last year of his contract, and will likely test the market next year, but it’s too early to say if the Cubs will re-sign him or not.
2025 Regular Season Preview:
This is the best team the Cubs have rostered post 2021 teardown, and made enough moves to stay in contention in a weak NL Central that saw the Brewers lose another key piece, and the Cardinals start to tear down themselves.
Starting Rotation
The Cubs rotation will again be headlined by two lefties, Justin Steele and Shota Imanaga. Shota became a fan favorite during the 2024 season, riding his fastball and nasty splitter to a 2.91 ERA and 5th place Cy Young finish. He gets plenty of swing and miss (72nd percentile Whiff%), and doesn’t walk many (4% BB), but does allow some loud noises with a below average barrel rate and hard hit rate, which could lead to some regression for this year.
With Steele you know what you’re going to get, not as much whiff as from Shota, but weak contact on the ground will likely lead to good results from the biggest success in Cubs pitching development over recent years.
The rest of the rotation isn’t much to write home about, but Matthew Boyd, Jameson Taillon, and young arms such as Javier Assad and Ben Brown will contribute to a unit that is projected to be middle of the pack in 2025
Relievers
The Bullpen was a big point of emphasis for Jed Hoyer in the offseason, as he added many veteran arms. Ryan Pressley will likely start the year as the closer, but it is unclear how long he’ll hold that position as his fastball velocity has dropped every year along with his strikeout rate, and he allowed a 42% hard hit rate last year (though much of his contact allowed is on the ground). Ryan Brasier, Julian Merrryweather, and Eli Morgan provide solid options for the middle innings, and Caleb Theilbar will be the lefty specialist of the group, but there isn’t much upside with them.
Porter Hodge is an exciting young reliever out of this group, and I could see him taking over the closer role again by the end of the season. In a sample size of 43 innings last year, he finished with two plus pitches, his 4-Seamer with a run value of 4, and his sweeper with a run value of 9. Hodge gets elite 97th percentile extension when he pitches, making his 96 MPH fastball seem that much faster, leading to a sub .600 OPS against. Despite his electric fastball, he throws his sweeper even more, averaging about 17 inches of glove side movement in 2024. This nasty sweeper had a 51% whiff rate, better than Blake Treinen’s nasty sweeper. Hodge should take a step forward in 2025 and help eat some high leverage innings striking out 30% of batters again in 2025.
The Lineup
The top third of the lineup looks very solid coming into the season, with some questions surrounding the bottom half, especially if they hope to place better than the 6th fewest runs in baseball as they did last year.
Ian Happ will likely hold down the leadoff spot, and has consistently been a high walk 120 WRC+ hitter. His OPS dipped a little in 2024, but will continue to be a 20 home run threat. Kyle Tucker and Seiya Suzuki will follow him, a solid 2-3 punch. Suzuki has improved as a hitter every year of his career including a 150 WRC+ over the second half of the season. He will spend most of his time as a DH this season, and will likely finish near the top of the leaderboard as a hitter again, as he finished as the 16th best qualified hitter by WRC+ in 2024.
Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner will continue to provide elite defense up the middle with near league-average bats. Swanson particularly will hope to bounce back from his up and down season, particularly by elevating the ball more as his GB% rose to around 50% in 2024, a career high.
The Cubs will also be counting on the development of young players to add stability to the lineup, with PCA and Michael Busch looking to build on their rookie seasons, and Matt Shaw making the team out of camp. Shaw will be placed in the starting third base role to open the season, with every player who started at the hot corner in 2024 being off the roster. Shaw, a 2023 first rounder out of Maryland, flew through the minor leagues raking at every stop along the way. He has a solid power-speed combination for a third baseman, and will settle in defensively as he gets more reps under his belt, since he was drafted as a middle infielder.
Behind the plate, the Cubs will split reps between Miguel Amaya, and free agent signing Carson Kelly. Kelly is the better defender behind the plate, placing as an above average framer and catching plenty of base stealers, but Amaya is the younger option. Following a switch from a leg kick to a toe tap, Amaya also finished with a 113 WRC+ in the second half of the season compared to a mark of 70 in the first half, so it’s worth asking which version of Amaya we’ll see in 2025.
The Cubs started out the season in 2025 with two losses to the reigning Champion Dodgers in Japan, and their early schedule will not get any easier. They have the hardest March/April slate by strength of schedule, so we will get an early view at how these Cubs handle playoff competition, perhaps a preview of how the rest of the season will look.
Player to Watch #1: RF Kyle Tucker
Tucker provides the Cubs with much needed star power following what might’ve been the most dominant we’ve ever seen Tucker, though in an injury shortened season. Everything went right for Tucker, finishing with 4.2 fWAR in just 78 games, as he absolutely mashed, hitting 23 bombs and walking more than he struck out (16.5% BB vs 15.9% K). He did this with a career high average launch angle of 21 degrees, as well as significant improvements in average exit velocity (91.1 MPH) and 13% barrel rate.
Tucker had a career high flyball rate, hitting over 50% of his batted balls in the air, something that may hurt his offensive production at Wrigley. Last year, the Windy City (which doesn’t usually refer to weather) contributed to Wrigley being a top 10 pitcher friendly park with a park factor of 97. Moving away from Minute Maid Park, which is particularly short down the lines, could cause some issues for Tucker, but he’s a good enough hitter that I’m not too worried about significant regression.
With a year left on his contract, many have pointed to the price given up in the trade, especially now that Cam Smith has made the Astros’ opening day roster. Paredes, Smith, and Wesneski are all high upside players but Jed Hoyer said it well when interviewed about the topic: “You’re not going to acquire a guy like Tucker…without giving up real talent.” Losing Smith in particular hurts, but this staff clearly has a lot of trust in Matt Shaw’s development to move on from Smith who tore up his first taste of pro ball. Tucker has consistently been around 5 win player with the Astros since 2021, and will look to again have a dominant season with the Cubs in 2025 and hopefully beyond, anchoring this lineup in their playoff push.
Player to Watch #2: CF Pete Crow-Armstrong
Acquired for Javier Baez and Trevor Williams at the 2021 trade deadline, PCA has been the most electric player in the Cubs organization ever since. He played in MLB for most of the 2024 season, showing off his 80 grade fielding with 14 OAA, and his plus speed as he stole 27 bases and caused all kinds of chaos on the bases such as his 14.08 second inside-the-park home run (second fastest in the Statcast Era.)
These electric tools create a solid value baseline for PCA but he struggled at times with the bat. He seemed overmatched at the plate in the first half of 2024, posting a 64 WRC+ and making lots of medium contact to the pull side, rarely any high quality batted balls. In the second half, however, he looked completely different. From July first on, PCA accrued 2.3 fWAR, good for 33rd in the league over that span. He ended up posting a 104 WRC+ over the second half. This might not be much for your average hitter, but as demonstrated by his WAR total over this stretch, he just needs to perform around league average hitting to give you top 40 value.
When taking a dive into Statcast’s new batting stance feature, Mike Petriello revealed that PCA moved over a foot back in the batter’s box between June, where he was 21 inches back of the front of the plate, and August, where he was 34 inches back. This allows him to see the ball slightly longer out of the hand, which clearly worked for him.
Along with this stance adjustment came with a more spray approach, trying less to force it to the pull side. A 51.7% pull rate in the first half dropped by nearly 14 points over the second half, where PCA hit 38% of his batted balls to center field compared to 37.7% to right. This likely allowed him to avoid some of the weakly hit balls and instead go with the pitch back up the middle or to the opposite field.
Crow-Armstrong backed up his second half performance with an electric Spring Training, hitting .500 with an OPS of around 1.400 (the best mark in the league). I won’t buy too far into Spring stats, but a 2025 breakout from PCA would do wonders for the Cubs lineup.
Player to Watch #3: RHP Ben Brown
This will be my second consecutive year writing about Ben Brown in this spot, and I have no regrets about that. Last year, I saw him as a potential solution to bullpen issues, with his two plus pitches, but his value came as a starter in the 2024 season. Despite starting the year in the ‘pen, he had a 3.23 ERA in games he started compared to a 4.41 as a reliever. He pitched only 55 1/3 innings before his season was shut down due to a benign bone tumor in his neck, and the ensuing operation to remove it.
Brown will start the year in the rotation this year with Javier Assad on the IL, and offers a much different profile than the rest of the Cubs’ starters. Brown’s fastball averaged 96.4 MPH, 86th percentile in MLB, and over 4 MPH faster than any other Cubs starter averages on their 4-seamer. Combining this velocity with his 6’6 frame creates elite extension and a hard pitcher to make contact with. Combining this fastball with his nasty curveball comes elite swing and miss, a 31% whiff rate (88th percentile) and 28.8% K% (87th percentile) to be exact.
Even with the swing and miss, when he got hit, he got hit hard to the tune of a 51.4% hard hit rate. This comes from a lack of a true third pitch, throwing his curve 36% of the time and his 4-Seamer 63% of the time in 2024 (in his appearance in Tokyo, he actually threw his curve more but it’s unclear if that will continue throughout the season.) During the spring, he continued his development of a change-up, which he reportedly feels good about.
Depending on the status of that change, Ben Brown could be an X-Factor for this pitching staff which lacks upside outside of Imanaga and Steele. It is clear that many in the organization have faith in his stuff, giving him the 5th starter role over Colin Rea, and I believe in the vision too. Brown could swap just some of his elite swing and miss for more focus on soft contact, resulting in a breakout 2025 for the 25 year old righty.
Position Group to Watch: Third Basemen
As I mentioned earlier, all the players who received starts at 3B on the 2024 Cubs are no longer on the roster, leaving lots of playing time available for top prospect Matt Shaw, and Rule 5 pick Gage Workman.
Matt Shaw flew through the minor leagues following being selected 13th overall in the 2023 draft. In his first professional action, he played just 3 games in the Arizona Complex league before putting up a 197 WRC+ in A ball and reaching AA. 2024 was more of the same for Shaw, as he had an outstanding season between AA and AAA. He recorded an .867 OPS, including 21 home runs and 31 stolen bases demonstrating his power-speed potential. Additionally, he walked 11.9% of the time which would’ve been good enough for 93rd percentile plate discipline in the majors. He’ll likely have some growing pains at the Major League level, but has immense potential to hold down the hot corner for the long term on the Northside.
Backing him up is another intriguing option. Gage Workman was picked in the Rule 5 Draft from the Tigers and, despite never playing above AA, broke camp with the Cubs. He grades as an elite fielder at third with positional versatility, and dropping switch hitting during the 2024 season lead to improved results with the bat. He hit 18 homers to go alongside a 140 WRC+ to entice the Cubs to pick him up, and performed even better in Spring Training. Workman hit a team leading 4 home runs with an OPS over 1.100, and will get some regular playing time if Shaw struggles. It will be interesting to see if Workman sticks around when Vidal Brujan comes back from injury, as Brujan offers even more positional versatility and had a good camp of his own.
The two young third baseman will have a lot on their plates attempting to hold down the 3B role for this contending Cubs team, and it will be interesting to see how their playing time plays out throughout the season.
2025 Record Prediction: 89-73
I’m not as confident the Cubs will win the division as many others, as there are still plenty of holes in this roster, but I still believe they are better than the rest of the teams in the Central. They might not be as good as the rest of the contenders in the NL, which is stacked this year, but should have the talent to beat out the Brewers who are banged up and lost Adames to free agency. They should see some development from the young guys on the roster, and benefit from having an MVP candidate in the lineup, but even as a Chicagoan I don’t believe they’re a legitimate World Series contender as some would suggest
The 2025 season marks the last year of President of Baseball Operations Jed Hoyer’s contract, and thus a make or break year for the club. If they fail to reach the playoffs yet again, Hoyer could be out of a job, and there could be some significant changes at the top of the organization.
Categories: 2025 Season Preview, Analysis, Articles, Season Analysis
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