Image: Matt York/AP Photo
2024 Record: 80-82 (.494 win%, 4th in Division)
2025 Payroll: $157,584,523 (14th)
Steamer 2025 Projected Top 10 Hitter WAR
1. C Patrick Bailey, .238 AVG/.304 OBP/.371 SLG, 4.5 fWAR
2. 3B Matt Chapman, .240 AVG/.327 OBP/.434 SLG, 3.8 fWAR
3. CF Jung Hoo Lee, .293 AVG/.349 OBP/.437 SLG, 3.8 fWAR
4. SS Willy Adames, .239 AVG/.320 OBP/.426 SLG, 3.8 fWAR
5. 2B Tyler Fitzgerald, .229 AVG/.288 OBP/.395 SLG, 1.8 fWAR
6. 1B LaMonte Wade Jr., .247 AVG/.357 OBP/.403 SLG, 1.7 fWAR
7. LF Heliot Ramos, .247 AVG/.310 OBP/.427 SLG, 1.7 fWAR
8. RF Mike Yastrzemski, .224 AVG/.303 OBP/.407 SLG, 0.8 fWAR
9. OF Luis Matos, .250 AVG/.304 OBP/.400 SLG, 0.6 fWAR
10. 1B Wilmer Flores, .242 AVG/.318 OBP/.409 SLG, 0.4 fWAR
Steamer 2025 Projected Top 5 Starting Pitcher WAR:
1. RHP Logan Webb, 201.0 IP/3.43 ERA/1.22 WHIP, 3.6 fWAR
2. LHP Robbie Ray, 160.2 IP/3.91 ERA/1.21 WHIP, 1.9 fWAR
3. RHP Justin Verlander, 141.1 IP/4.21 ERA/1.24 WHIP, 1.4 fWAR
4. LHP Kyle Harrison, 116.1 IP/3.95 ERA/1.27 WHIP, 1.0 fWAR
5. RHP Jordan Hicks, 138.0 IP/4.07 ERA/1.39 WHIP, 0.9 fWAR
Steamer 2025 Projected Top 4 Relievers:
1. RHP Landen Roupp, 105.2 IP/3.78 ERA/1.32 WHIP, 0.9 fWAR
2. RHP Hayden Birdsong, 117.2 IP/4.01 ERA/1.33 WHIP, 0.7 fWAR
3. RHP Ryan Walker, 68.0 IP/3.05 ERA/1.03 WHIP, 0.7 fWAR
4. RHP Camilo Doval, 62.0 IP/3.16 ERA/1.23 WHIP, 0.5 fWAR
What Does Baseball Mean to This City?
San Francisco is a city with baseball heritage, home to legends like Willie Mays and Barry Bonds. The Giants built a dynasty in the 2010s with icons like Buster Posey, Madison Bumgarner, Tim Lincecum, and Matt Cain. However, the era now feels like a distant memory. What remains is a franchise at a crossroads between nostalgia and the need to rebuild.
Once a team that attracted the Oracle Park with over 40,000 fans per game, attendance has plunged to near 30,000. The magic of 2021’s division title turned out to be an anomaly rather than a resurgence. The question is whether the Giants can reestablish themselves as contenders or if they will continue to drift further into an 80-win mediocre team.
In Which Direction Is This Team Trending?
The recent years of the Giants have been total chaos. Player development is a clear weakness for the team. Over the past decade, the Giants rank 30th out of all 30 teams in cumulative WAR from first-round draft picks. Despite being a big market team, ownership has consistently avoided long-term contracts while refusing to rebuild.
Moreover, prospects like Joey Bart, Heliot Ramos, and Tyler Fitzgerald were not given meaningful opportunities or DFA’d. The team has been hesitant to tank but unwilling to invest at the level required to compete with rivals of the National League West.
The front office under Farhan Zaidi spent money in the worst possible ways by overpaying ‘mid’ players. Fans were devastated to see Brandon Crawford leave the team and instead sign Nick Ahmed and Otto Lopez.
Instead of signing stars like Aaron ‘Arson’ Judge, Carlos Correa, or Corbin Burnes, they threw $44M at Jordan Hicks, a reliever-turned-starter experiment, and $42M Jorge Soler, a DH with no defensive value. Blake Snell’s deferred money turned out to be a disaster, making him untradeable and preventing the team from acquiring prospects.
2024-25 Offseason Recap:
The Giants parted ways with Mark Canha, Curt Casali, Blake Snell, and Michael Conforto. Executives Farhan Zaidi and Pete Putilla were fired, and franchise legend Buster Posey took over the team. Whether Posey would be a savior of the Giants or just a familiar face to appease the fans still remains a question.
The team made several notable moves, starting with signing Willy Adames to a seven-year, $182 million contract. Although the price seems reasonable, there are concerns if he would be able to play shortstop in the long term. His 2024 season was a career-high, but his 27.2% career strikeout rate and .248 career batting average may turn into serious problems in Oracle Park’s pitcher-friendly environment.
Moreover, with the Giants having one of the worst farm systems in the league, sacrificing a qualified draft pick for a player who has never been an all-star or performed at an elite level is a questionable decision. However, his leadership qualities could help address the Giants’ chemistry issues.
Another major move was signing Justin Verlander to a one-year, $15 million deal. However, Verlander missed 2024 due to an injury. Instead of giving opportunities to pitching prospects like Mason Black and Carson Whisenhunt, the Giants decided to give a rotation spot to a 42-year-old. Additionally, Matt Chapman extended with the Giants with a six-year, $151 million deal. He is still one of the best defensive third basemen in baseball, and if he maintains his offense as last year, he will be the key player in the Giants’ 2025 season.
2025 Regular Season Preview:
The Giants are in a difficult position, where, despite having a roster that suggests they should rebuild, they have too many high-paid players. They are forced into a win-now approach, although their overall talent level is questionable. The projected batting lineup is 1. LaMonte Wade Jr. (1B), 2. Willy Adames (SS), 3. Jung Hoo Lee (CF), 4. Matt Chapman (3B), 5. Heliot Ramos (LF), 6. Patrick Bailey (C), 7. Wilmer Flores (DH), 8. Mike Yastrzemski (RF), and 9. Tyler Fitzgerald (2B).
Infield: The infield defense of Wade Jr., Adames, and Chapman seems solid, but offensive concerns remain. Wade Jr. has elite on-base skills but is one of the weakest-hitting first basemen in the league. Fitzgerald’s breakout last year might have been a fluke, making middle infield a potential weak spot in the lineup.
Casey Schmidt and Brett Wisely are infield backup options, and Wilmer Flores and Jerar Encarnacion will take turns as designated hitters. Top prospect Bryce Eldridge might be called up midseason if the offense struggles.
Catcher: Patrick Bailey is the undisputed starting catcher of the 2025 Giants, with elite defensive skills behind the plate. A Gold Glove winner, Bailey is ranked among the league’s best framing, pop time, and blocking efficiency in 2024. However, his offensive performance remains a concern, as he struggles with power and on-base consistency with an 81 wRC+ in 2024.
Despite his lack of offense, Bailey has one of the best defensive skills in the league, which has been crucial in stabilizing the Giants pitching staff. The Giants strengthened their depth by signing Max Stassi to a minor league deal and claiming Sam Huff from the waivers.
Outfield: Lee signed a massive contract last season but only played 37 games before suffering a season-ending injury. While he has the potential to develop into an all-star, it is uncertain if he would be able to apply his tools from KBO to the big leagues. Ramos had a strong 2024 season (120 wRC+), but concerns about the offensive sustainability linger.
Yastrzemski is aging and showing signs of decline. If all three perform well without injuries, this could be a competitive outfield, but the amount of uncertainty makes it a major risk. Grant McCray and Luis Matos are backup outfielders in case of injuries and underperformance.
Pitching: The starting rotation is led by Logan Webb. Followed by Justin Verlander, Robbie Ray, Jordan Hicks, and Hayden Birdsong, their success depends on them staying healthy. The bullpen features Ryan Walker, one of the best relievers of 2024, Tyler Rogers, Camilo Doval, Sean Hjelle, and Erik Miller.
For Doval to return to his prime season of 2023, he should improve his command to complement his dominant stuff. The whole pitching staff has a high ceiling but also carries significant risk.
Player to Watch #1: CF Jung Hoo Lee
In 2024, former KBO MVP and 5-time Golden Glove Award winner Jung Hoo Lee, also known as the Grandson of Wind, signed a 6-year, $113 million contract with the San Francisco Giants. Unfortunately, his debut season was cut short due to a shoulder injury after just 37 games, where he posted a very disappointing .262/.310/.331 slashline. However, Lee’s underlying metrics suggest a potential breakout for the 2025 season.
Despite his struggles, Lee had elite contact skills with a 93.4% Zone Contact rate, ranking third in the entire league only behind Luis Arraez and Steven Kwan. One notable thing is that he paired this contact tool with the highest barrel rate and fastest bat speed among these contact hitters, with an exit velocity of 3 mph higher. His strikeout rate was below 10%, with a walk rate similar to the strikeout rate, which demonstrates an elite plate discipline.
Lee’s career-high season in the KBO is 23 homers, 49 doubles, and 10 triples, which suggests that he could use his gap power in the Oracle Park’s vast outfield that is advantageous to left-handed batters. With a revised swing stance during the offseason and impressive Spring Training stats (.300/.400/.567 with 2 homers), Lee’s offense gives hope to the Giants lineup.
However, a major flaw of Lee’s offensive strategy is his inability to hit ‘meatballs’, or hittable pitches in the center of the zone. His meatball swing % was 48.9%, while the league average was 76.3%. His approach resembles that of a bad-ball hitter, as he chases pitches outside of the zone to put the ball in play and treats the pitches the same whether it is in or out of the zone. This focus on contact limits his game power, which needs improvement.
Defensively, Lee’s arm strength ranks 90th percentile in the leagues, and his speed allows him to cover the vast outfield of the Oracle Park. However, transitioning from the artificial grass and lighting of KBO’s dome stadium to MLB’s natural grass and day games posed challenges in 2024. While his speed helps cover his occasional misreads, refining his defense against higher exit velocities and making a quicker start to accurately follow the batted ball are crucial.
Regarding baserunning, Lee has impressive raw speed but needs to improve his baserunning strategy to minimize Caught Stealing. Lee’s offseason adjustments and his ability to translate his newly acquired skills are the keys to the offense and defense of the Giants in 2025.
Player to Watch #2: LF Heliot Ramos
Heliot Ramos is a player with power potential. His barrel rate of 14.5% ranks in the top 8% of MLB, while his .481 xSLG places him in the top 10%. Additionally, his bat speed of 75.2 mph is in the top 10%, and his average exit velocity of 91.5 mph ranks in the top 15%, with a max EV of 111.8 mph. These metrics suggest that Ramos possesses impressive raw power. His xwOBA of .338 puts him in the 74th percentile, which shows his ability to generate quality contact.
However, he has problems with plate discipline, as reflected by his 22.3% squared-up rate, 29.9% chase rate, 28.7% whiff rate, 26.1% strikeout rate, and a low 7.1% walk rate. Moreover, his average launch angle is just 10.4 degrees, limiting his ability to put raw power into play. His zone contact rate of 80.8% and chase contact rate of 46.9% lie below the league average, so he needs to adjust his launch angle and approach to reach his fullest potential.
Regarding defense, Ramos was forced to play center field in 2024 due to Jung Hoo Lee’s injury, which resulted in a poor -5 OAA. However, he is expected to return to left field this year, where his defensive metrics suggest he can be an above-average defender. His arm value ranks top 21%, while his arm strength ranks top 39%. In 2023, when he played two-thirds of his games in left field, he posted a run value of 1, compared to last season’s -3. This indicates that although he may not be an elite defender, he is capable of providing solid defense in left field.
Player to Watch #3: 1B Bryce Eldridge
Bryce Eldridge, ranked #12 by Baseball America and #24 by MLB Pipeline, is the top offensive prospect of the Giants organization. With a 70-grade raw power tool, Eldridge has shown rapid development since he was drafted in 2023. In just his second season using a wooden bat, he showed his power by hitting 12 homers with a .335/.442/.618 slash line in 48 games at Eugene Emeralds, the high-A organization. He had a sensational season, with 23 homers and .291/.374/.516 slash line, leaping from single-A to triple-A in just a single season.
Eldridge is expected to begin 2025 in Sacramento, where his performance in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League could accelerate his call-up. Last year in Sacramento, he recorded an average exit velocity of 91.6 mph and a hard-hit % of 55%, which ranks him third and second on the Giants major league roster. If the Giants move LaMonte Wade Jr. before the trade deadline, Eldridge could reach the majors as early as July.
While his power is immaculate and sometimes compared to other prospects with great power like Charlie Condon and Jac Caglianone, his contact skills and strikeout rate remain a concern. His whiff % was 31.9%, which ranks him in the 13th percentile of the big leagues, so getting used to upper-level breaking balls and improving his two-strike approach could unlock his full potential.
Defensively, Eldridge’s background as a two-way player gives him a plus arm (92-96 mph fastball in 2022), making him a fit for both first base and right field. Given that he only played first base in double-A and triple-A, he is expected to add a great amount of offense to the Giants organization.
Position Group to Watch: Starting Rotation
The 2025 Giants starting rotation represents the term ‘high risk, high return’. Logan Webb has been the definition of consistency, pitching over 200 innings in consecutive seasons while maintaining a career 58% groundball rate. Despite experimenting with changeups and sinkers in 2024, he remains the most reliable starter of the Giants pitching staff. His top 8% extension and elite command make up his lack of velocity, and his durability is key in a rotation filled with question marks.
After returning from Tommy John surgery, Justin Verlander’s velocity, where his fastball topped 96 mph in Spring Training, has given hope. Although he may not be the dominant ace of his prime, his ability to adapt to the Oracle Park’s pitcher-friendly environment accompanied by his leadership in the clubhouse will be valuable. Robbie Ray, the 2022 AL Cy Young winner, seems to have regained his strikeout ability after his injury, with an elite fastball and slider combination. However, his success depends on his command and maintain consistency on the mound.
Jordan Hicks transitioned from reliever to starter in 2024 and his transition seemed successful until April. However, despite his fastball velocity, he failed to stay healthy and generate strikeouts for the rest of the season. His success, just like other starters, heavily depends on his ability to stay healthy for the entire season.
Hayden Birdsong was the breakout star of Spring Training, posting a 0.75 ERA while pitching a fastball sitting at 96 mph with over 2,300 RPM. His curveball, slider, and occasionally used changeup have all been effective. Specifically, his fastball movement has improved, with an IVB increase from 16.4 to 17.2 and an HB decrease from 9.5 to 6.5. The biggest concern is his inconsistency in his delivery, sometimes leading to inconsistent command. With more experience on the mound, he will be the future of the Giants organization.
Kyle Harrison made his debut in 2023, with high hopes that he will be a savior to the Giants organization. However, he struggled in 2024, with a 10.1% barrel rate, 90.4 mph average exit velocity, and a 42.9% hard-hit rate. While his fastball is effective due to its vertical approach angle and horizontal movement, his breaking pitches were ineffective, all of them posting negative run values. Mason Black, the 12th prospect of the organization, is a good depth option, but his long-term option depends on the velocity and improved breaking balls.
A wildcard for the Giants rotation is Carson Whisenhunt. This lefty has one of the best changeups in baseball, generating a 49% chase rate and 47% whiff rate while recording 71 of his 135 strikeouts in triple-A. His 92-96 mph two-seam works well when commanded, but constantly struggles with location.
He has to work on his third pitch, neither his slider nor curveball stands out. Although the splits between home and road games in triple-A raise questions about his readiness, his changeup itself is highly effective enough to make him a mid-rotation starter in the near future.
2025 Record Prediction: 83-79
The 2025 season of the Giants depends on the health of veterans and the breakout of young players. With one of the strongest rotations in baseball, combined with the offense of the lineup, they have the potential to remain competitive in the NL West. However, there are still concerns about contact consistency, the team’s overall low meatball contact %, defensive adjustments, and the durability of pitchers. With the best possible scenarios, an 83-79 finish and a potential Wild Card slot seem within reach.
Categories: 2025 Season Preview, Analysis, Articles, Season Analysis
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