Image: (Stephen Brashear/USA TODAY Sports)
Check out my 2024 Season Preview Article for the Seattle Mariners here.
2024 Record: 85-77 (.525 win%, 2nd in Division)
2024 Payroll: $148,318,884 (16th)
2024 Top 10 Players (by fWAR):
1. C Cal Raleigh, 5.4 fWAR, 117 wRC+, .200 AVG/.312 OBP/.436 SLG
2. SP Bryce Miller, 4.5 fWAR, 2.94 ERA, 24.3 K%, 6.4 BB%
3. SP Logan Gilbert, 3.9 fWAR, 3.23 ERA, 27.4 K%, 5.3 BB%
4. CF Julio Rodriguez, 3.8 fWAR, 116 wRC+, .273 AVG/.325 OBP/.409 SLG
5. SP Bryan Woo, 3.2 fWAR, 2.89 ERA, 21.4 K%, 2.8 BB%
6. OF Victor Robles, 3.2 fWAR, 154 wRC+, .328 AVG/.393 OBP/.467 SLG
7. SP George Kirby, 3.1 fWAR, 3.53 ERA, 23.0 K%, 3.0 BB%
8. SP Luis Castillo, 2.9 fWAR, 3.64 ERA, 24.3 K%, 6.5 BB%
7. SP George Kirby, 3.1 fWAR, 3.53 ERA, 23.0 K%, 3.0 BB%
8. SP Luis Castillo, 2.9 fWAR, 3.64 ERA, 24.3 K%, 6.5 BB%
9. UTIL Dylan Moore, 2.4 fWAR, 105 wRC+, .201 AVG/.320 OBP/.367 SLG
10. INF Luke Raley, 2.3 fWAR, 129 wRC+, .243 AVG/.320 OBP/.463 SLG
M-SABR Predicted Record (87-75) vs. Actual (85-77):
While the record prediction was close, and the Mariners were one spot and two games out of the playoffs, I don’t think the final record necessarily reflects the true trajectory of their season. They were hanging in the back of the playoff race field for the majority of September, more treading around a .500 winning percent than earnestly competing for a playoff spot. A late surge in which they went 8-2 in their final 10 games saved my prediction, but watching the team felt nothing like the 87 win team I was expecting.
Ultimately, the moves made by the team were relatively lateral, and arguably negative. Contrary to my predictions, hitting became a major weak point for the team, as they were 22nd in team OPS of .687, compared to 16th in 2023 with a team OPS of .734.
Out of the players who departed, Jose Caballero led the American League in steals with 44 after seeing an increased role with the Rays in 2024. Jarred Kelenic had an up and down year filling in for the injured Braves outfielders. Eugenio Suarez logged 158 games for the Diamondbacks and swatted 30 homers. It isn’t like any of these players had an incredible breakout season, but their presence was definitely missed, as their replacements struggled to fill their shoes.
Regular Season Recap:
The Mariners got off to a middling start in 2024, beginning 4-8 before going on a nice streak for the remainder of April. By the end of the month, the Mariners had claimed the division lead, albeit their record was worst among division leaders. What was supposed to be an AL West with high-end competition looked weak, as both the Mariners and Rangers sat just above .500. The Angels looked destined for another bad season, and while the A’s were holding on, it wouldn’t last for long. The biggest surprise, however, was that the Astros sat in last place at 10-20. All of the sudden, the division seemed open for the taking.
This sentiment was strengthened by a May in which the Mariners were the only team in their division to remain above the .500 mark. Poor pitching performance by just about everybody not named Bryan Woo, Luis Castillo, and Andres Munoz paralleled with a few injuries led to very up and down days.
The saving grace really came at the end of the month, where the Mariners took 3 of 4 close games from the rival Astros. This included an extra inning walk-off by JP Crawford, a feat that Mariners fans would get to experience quite a few times this season. Players like Mitch Haniger and Cal Raleigh were able to deliver some exciting finishes for the club throughout the year.
Their division lead would hold through the All-Star break, albeit by a slim margin. There was continued success in June by players like Logan Gilbert (1.51 ERA), Luke Raley (.857 OPS), and George Kirby (1.74 ERA). However, one of the most impactful moves came on the first day of the month, when the Mariners signed former top prospect and World Series Champion Victor Robles after he was designated for assignment by the Washington Nationals, the team he spent his whole MLB career with.
Robles had been notably struggling for quite some time and had been performing at a replacement level for a number of years. The change of scenery ended up being amazing for him though, as he posted 3.1 fWar with the Mariners across 77 games, earning himself a spot in the everyday lineup. While Robles wasn’t the only success story for the club in 2024, he was certainly the most unexpected one.
After sending Logan Gilbert and Andres Munoz (as his replacement) to the All-Star Game, the Mariners sputtered up to the trade deadline, now effectively in a dogfight with the Astros for the division title. With top players J.P. Crawford and Julio Rodriguez hitting the injured list, they needed to reload, and that is exactly what they did.
Veteran Blue Jays RP Yimi Garcia and INF Justin Turner were acquired in separate trades. RP JT Chargois was acquired for bullpen depth. The only non-rental was OF Randy Arozarena, a surprise move in which the Mariners were able to buy low. He provided a spark, as his production ticked up with the Mariners, compared to his time in 2024 with the Rays. A return to form in future years would be outstanding.
By August 11th, the Mariners were 63-56, tied with the Astros for the division lead. By August 21st, they were 64-64. This disastrous skid dropped them way behind in the division race, playoff race, and practically killed what had been a solid season up to that point.
The collapse ultimately led to the end of the tenure of manager Scott Servais. Servais at that point was the longest tenured manager in the American League, accumulating a record of 680-642 over 9 seasons. He also had brought the Mariners to their first postseason in over 20 years, and won a wildcard series over the Toronto Blue Jays. With the season now in a terrible spot, they had to turn to somebody else, which ended up being Dan Wilson. Wilson led the team to a 21-13 finish, and will likely manage the team for the foreseeable future.
Players We Watched:
#1: CF Julio Rodriguez
The Mariners fan-favorite seemingly delayed his sophomore slump to his junior year, missing out on accolades like a Silver Slugger, MVP votes, and All-Star Game appearance for the first time in his career. Just about everything hitting-wise declined, as J-Rod saw increases in categories like chase rate and strikeout rate as well as a decrease in average exit velocity.
Much of this can be attributed to a decline in ability to hit the fastball and slider, the two pitches he sees most often. His expected numbers against the fastball were actually higher than last year, but the tangible results were down, with high whiff rate on fastballs being the main culprit.
Of course, a down season does not equal a bad season. Julio still posted a 116 OPS+ and was in the 80th to 90th percentile in many statistical categories regarding expected batting statistics, hitting the ball hard, fielding, and running.
To put metrics aside for a moment, it is very difficult to try and lead a whole offense without much support from teammates, especially for a younger player. It does not have to be that the lights were too bright, but poor team morale or being surrounded by poor performance can bring down better players. He’s still a one-man show, but another superstar friend might help to alleviate some pressure and elevate his game even further.
#2: SP Bryan Woo
Bryan Woo delivered the exciting season I was hoping for at the beginning of the year. Through 121.1 innings, he posted a 2.89 ERA (127 ERA+). He demonstrated excellent control over the strike zone with a 2.8% walk rate, better than teammate George Kirby, who is notorious for keeping a low walk rate. His fastball usage ticked up and simultaneously increased in run value. He threw all of his off-speed pitches around 9% of the time, with the best one being a sweeper thrown (mainly to righties) 156 times with only 4 singles allowed.
Based on this, it isn’t surprising that Woo finished in top percentiles for fastball and overall run value, walk rate, expected ERA, and barrel rate. Some keys to a better 2025 would be avoiding injury and improving his slider in order to pick up the strikeout rate. If he could put that together, his 2025 could be special.
#3: 1B Ty France
Unfortunately, the production for Ty France worsened in 2024. His OPS+ dipped below league average for the first time since his debut year, the strikeout rate was around career-worst, and trends of low average exit velocity and barrel rate continued.
Paired with a -12 OAA in the field and poor baserunning, France dipped below replacement level. As such, what I stated in the preview came true: the Mariners began to look elsewhere. The day before the trade deadline, the fan-favorite was dealt to the Cincinnati Reds, and Justin Turner was brought in as a replacement.
Offseason Outlook:
The Mariners have had a quiet offseason, contrary to trade-heavy offseasons of years past. The first move worth noting is the signing of veteran Donovan Solano to a 1 year, $3.5 million contract to bring back a little of the infield depth they lost to free agency.
Josh Rojas, Justin Turner, Luis Urias, and Jorge Polanco hit free agency, and they only brought Jorge Polanco back on a 1 year, $7.75 million contract to play third base. So, it will be interesting to see how they fill these holes for 2025. Look for hopefully one or two more budget veteran signings to shore up the roster, but it is very possible that at this point, they are just about done.
While few big-name free agents remain, one has been garnering almost no interest but would be a great fit for the Mariners: Pete Alonso. The market for him has been dry, but there still appear to be other suitors like the Blue Jays and Mets as favorites.
The need for a strong first baseman is critical without Ty France and Justin Turner. Last year, Alonso hit 34 home runs and played all 162 games, and that is the kind of consistency that the Mariners are missing in their lineup. One could point to prospect Tyler Locklear to potentially platoon with Luke Raley, but Alonso would be much better if the focus was to make the postseason.
The rotation does not have much room to give by way of improvement, but my concern is how easily injury could derail their season. If any of their top five guys went down their replacements would pale in comparison. Similar to the lineup, temporary veteran depth does not seem like a bad idea while top prospects continue to develop.
There are still plenty of cheap starting pitching options available, and while they might not have an immediate impact at the start of the year, their services could wind up being very valuable in the later months.The bullpen could also look to sign a couple of veteran names along the line of guys like Andrew Chafin or Keynan Middleton. They could use a couple of these reliever-for-hire type players, since Yimi Garcia has returned to the Blue Jays, they traded Ryne Stanek to the Mets, and the bullpen as a whole took a step down in 2024.
They are still solid and expect Matt Brash and Gregory Santos to return which will be a significant boost, and signing a couple of these options could bring the Mariners back to having a top 5 bullpen. Obtaining strong set-up men and middle relievers should be a focus for the Mariners. Their league-lowest 490.1 reliever innings in 2024 shows that pairing their already strong performances from starters with good relievers to finish games could create a winning formula that could easily frustrate their opponents.
Categories: 2024 Season Review, Analysis, Articles, Season Analysis
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