Image credit: (Sue Ogrocki / Associated Press)

Check out my 2024 Season Preview Article for the Yankees here.

2024 Record: 94-68 (.580 win%, 1st in Division)

2024 Payroll: 309,434,607 (2^nd)

2024 Top 10 Players (by fWAR):

1. CF Aaron Judge, 11.2 fWAR, 218 wRC+, .322 AVG/.458 OBP/.701 SLG

2. RF Juan Soto, 8.1 fWAR, 180 wRC+, .288 AVG/.419 OBP/.569 SLG

3. C Austin Wells, 3.4 fWAR, 105 wRC+, .229 AVG/.322 OBP/.395 SLG

4. SS Anthony Volpe, 3.4 fWAR, 86 wRC+, .243 AVG/.293 OBP/.364 SLG

5. SP Nestor Cortes, 3.3 fWAR, 3.77 ERA, 22.8 K%, 5.5 BB%

6. SP Luis Gil, 3.2 fWAR, 3.50 ERA, 26.8 K%, 12.1 BB%

7. SP Carlos Rodón, 2.5 fWAR, 3.96 ERA, 26.5 K%, 7.7 BB%

8. 3B Jazz Chisholm Jr., 2.3 fWAR, 132 wRC+, .273 AVG/.325 OBP/.500 SLG

9. SP Clarke Schmidt, 2.1 fWAR, 2.85 ERA, 26.3 K%, 8.5 BB%

10. SP Gerrit Cole, 2.0 fWAR, 3.41 ERA, 25.4 K%, 7.4 BB%

On the 4 train heading to Yankee Stadium for game five of the World Series, well knowing that the end of the season was nigh, I was considering how to lead off this article. What game more encapsulates the season, I thought to myself, than the Yankees’ loss to the Orioles on July 14th, the last day before the All-Star break? To refresh everyone’s memory, this game took place in the midst of the Yankees struggles, when they were finding any way possible to lose games. After winning the first two of the series, they entered the ninth inning of game three down a run and facing Oriole closer Craig Kimbrel. But then, recent rookie call-up Ben Rice proceeded to hit a massive three run home run, putting the Yankees in prime position to secure the sweep and possibly snap out of their skid. Yet in the bottom of the ninth inning, out came Clay Holmes, despite the fact that he had given up runs in five out of his ten appearances prior to this game.

Characteristically, Holmes walked batters and induced ground balls, one of which went for a single, and the other a fielder’s choice. The bases were loaded with two outs when a ball was grounded to the shortstop, a relatively routine play that should have ended the game. Alas, Anthony Volpe mishandled it – a typically sure-handed defender making a mistake in a big moment on a normally routine play. The next batter, Cedric Mullins, flied a ball out to left field that had a 99% catch probability – but Alex Verdugo, the Yankees’ other Gold Glove nominee, took a false step in, stumbled, and fell down, the ball landing behind him and the runners scoring, winning the Orioles the game. This game, I believed, perfectly summated the Yankees this year – the big moments, the high hopes, and the talent, but also the questionable decisions, the poor fundamentals, and the penchant for collapse. A deductive reader can clearly see where this is going. At that time, though, I didn’t have the slightest clue that game five of the World Series would usurp this one’s place and more. 

M-SABR Predicted Record (96-66) vs. Actual (94-68):

Overall, many of the talking points I discussed in my season preview turned out to be major factors in the 2024 season. There was ample reason to be optimistic for this team because of the elite players (Judge, Soto), and many of the unknowns came through, in the form of Nestor Cortes, Giancarlo Stanton, and Carlos Rodón. For the first season in a long time, the Yankees were mostly spared of injuries, although the absences of Clarke Schmidt and Giancarlo Stanton coincided with the falloffs of both the pitching staff and the offense. Even with their stark periods of dominance and lowliness, a weak American League and the talent of the Yankee roster won out, resulting in the best record in the AL and a World Series berth. My prediction was not particularly bold or subversive of the prevailing narrative, but I was certainly much closer than Baseball Reference’s prediction of 71.6 games won, so I guess I deserve some credit. 

Player We Watched #1: Aaron Judge

After the shoddy architecture of Dodger Stadium robbed him of his follow-up campaign to his 62-home run 2022 season, he began his age-32 season with a month of mediocrity. Through April, he had only hit 6 home runs, batting .197 and with a .725 OPS. Yet, on May 4th, umpire Alan Porter ejected the typically mild-mannered Judge for daring to utter a word of dissent against his abysmal strike zone. Maybe it was his anger towards the umpire (a Yankee Captain had not been ejected since Don Mattingly in 1994) that re-awoke something inside Judge, because his next 100 games … may have been the greatest 100 game stretch by any hitter – ever. That is not an exaggeration: per Baseball Reference, from April 27th to August 26th (103 games), he hit .376 with 47 home runs, 109 RBI, a .504 on-base percentage, and an .837 SLUGGING percentage. On a per 162 game basis, that would be 74 home runs and 171 RBI. He did this during a period where the hitters behind him struggled, so he would rarely get a pitch to hit, making it all the more impressive. In September, he slowed down, going sixteen games without a home run until his go-ahead grand slam against the Red Sox at Yankee Stadium. He ended the year with 58 home runs, shy of his 62 in 2022 but with better overall numbers; his wRC+ of 218 was the tenth-highest single season mark ever, with only Rogers Hornsby, Ted Williams, Babe Ruth, and Barry Bonds above him, according to Statmuse. Those seasons were either pre-1958 or marred by steroid usage, making Judge’s 2024 campaign arguably (I would argue) the greatest single offensive season ever. 

Player We Watched #2: Anthony Volpe

After a 20/20 rookie season, Anthony Volpe entered his sophomore campaign with an emphasis on getting his average up. In the end, he did so, but at the expense of slugging, his 2024 OPS of .657 actually being lower than his rookie .666 mark. Two years in a row, he seemed to have been worn down by the length of the season. He started on a tear; through his first month, he was one of the team’s best hitters, and was tried in the leadoff spot. His production tapered off until the All-Star Break, after which he got into a groove once again, only for him to go back to flailing at the plate shortly after. In his slumps, his major flaw was plate discipline– he would often go weeks without walking, chasing pitches out of the strike zone, while not swinging on counts where he was likely to get a pitch to hit. When he did make contact, it would not be hard contact. He seemed to be cognizant of his lack of walks, but instead of cutting down his chase rate, he would reduce his zone swing%; on hitter’s counts, he would often stare down strikes, trying to walk instead of drive the pitch, exacerbating the problem. With a week off between the regular season and the start of the postseason, he came back rejuvenated, leading to a strong postseason. Volpe credits his playoff success to “swinging harder,” which should be something, along with the better plate discipline he showed in his hot streaks, he should try to carry over to next year, an integral one in turning him from a glove-first shortstop to a real offensive contributor. 

Player We Watched #3: Carlos Rodón

Although his six-year, $27 million AAV already looks to be an overpay, Rodón still rebounded after a rough first year in pinstripes, taking his ERA from 6.85 in 2023 to 3.96 in 2024 while raising his K/9 and lowering his BB/9. Importantly, he pitched a full season of 175 innings, the second most of his career, and turned out some important starts down the stretch and at the beginning of the season. He faltered when the rest of the team did in the middle of the summer, having a string of disastrous starts that ballooned his ERA. In the playoffs, he turned out a good start in the ALCS but two other below average ones in the World Series and ALDS. Despite him likely not returning to his Cy Young candidate form of a couple years ago, he is still forecasted to be one of the steadier presences in the rotation. 

Regular Season Recap:

The 2024 Yankees’ season was jam-packed with as much triumph, tumult, storylines, hope, and in the end, catastrophe, as any in recent memory. Appropriately, it began with a four-game sweep of the hated Astros, bookended by a Juan Soto outfield assist to end game one and a Juan Soto go-ahead single to complete the sweep. The Yankees appeared to be a team on a mission after their dismal 2023 season, revitalized by the additions of Juan Soto and Alex Verdugo. Despite Gerrit Cole’s elbow injury and Aaron Judge’s April malaise, the Yankees were easily dispatching of the teams ahead of them, powered by the best starting rotation in baseball, Clay Holmes’ dominance, and production throughout the lineup. On June 12th, the Yankees held a 49-21 record: a .700 winning percentage. 

Many have pointed to the series against the Red Sox at Fenway which began the Yankees’ stark downturn – the one where Alex Verdugo hit a first inning home run, taking a long trot around the bases to stock it to the team that traded him. But it was the game before that which first penetrated the Yankees sense of invincibility. The Bombers had appeared to be heading to an easy four-game sweep of the Royals until Clay Holmes, who had yet to allow an earned run on the season, allowed runners to reach on soft contact, including one play where Anthony Rizzo and Holmes failed to execute a toss to the pitcher at first base. Maikel Garcia proceeded to walk them off with a double. As it turns out, that was all it took for the 2024 Yankees to go from looking like the ‘98 Yankees to the 2023 Yankees. 

The next month and a half was nothing short of a complete meltdown. In the next 35 games, they were 14-21. The starting pitching, which had been one of the best in baseball collapsed, even with the return of Gerrit Cole; Clarke Schmidt got injured, Carlos Rodón had a string of catastrophic starts, Luis Gil faltered, and Marcus Stroman regressed. Furthermore, the lineup depth disintegrated; players who had gotten off to torrid starts, including Anthony Volpe and Alex Verdugo, seemed to fall off a cliff, and suddenly, the lineup was reduced to Soto, Judge, and seven automatic outs. The ship was partly righted after the trade deadline acquisition of Jazz Chisholm, but even still, in the 67 games after reaching 49 wins, they went 30-37. 

As bad as the Yankees were during the summer, fortunately for them, the Orioles and the rest of the AL were no better. The Bombers managed to retain their lead down the stretch, while regaining key players from injury. They cruised into the playoffs nearly fully healthy and as the first seed, priming them for a deep run. While the team had ups and downs, the final team stats were all-around above average; per Fangraphs, they ranked 8th in the league in team ERA, 3rd in batting WAR, 2nd in team wRC+, and 3rd in total defense (this was largely bolstered by having elite defenders at prime positions, including catcher, shortstop, and to a lesser extent left field). Meanwhile, they ranked dead last in baserunning, a flaw that later turned out to be fatal.  

Playing the Gehrig to Judge’s Ruth, offseason trade acquisition Juan Soto met every expectation and more. Batting in front of Judge, Soto racked up the best numbers of his career: his 41 homers was a career high, as was his WAR of 8.1 and his slugging percentage (excluding 2020) of .569. While Judge’s production fluctuated throughout the year, Soto’s stayed constant, providing much needed stability to the Yankee lineup. His impending free agency was the discussion point since the season first began, resulting in chants for his re-signing becoming commonplace in Yankee Stadium. Soto always played it close to his vest, though, refusing to give too much away, acting in a similar manner as Aaron Judge did in his 2022 season. Soto showed a level of calm in big moments not exuded by any other current Yankee, possibly except for Giancarlo Stanton – a trait much valued by a fanbase so championship-minded. Soto seemed to be a perfect fit in pinstripes, yet his leaving in free agency is a real possibility, as I will get to in the offseason section. 

The rest of the lineup showed flashes, but was overall a source of much frustration for a large part of the season. Veteran first baseman Anthony Rizzo, after a 2023 season disrupted by a concussion, never got himself going. His power seemed to have been sapped away, and he eventually missed a couple months when he broke his wrist trying to brace his fall after a collision running to first base at Fenway Park. He broke his hand again, getting hit by a pitch later in the year and was serviceable for the playoffs, but the Yankees bought out his option and he seems unlikely to return.

Somehow, 36 year-old DJ LeMahieu was even worse. He played both third base and first, never getting going until a hip injury ended his season. The Yankees continued to give him playing time though, possibly because he has two years and $30 million remaining on  his contract. At this point, he is a sunk cost, but the Yankees will likely give him a chance to rework himself over the offseason and make one last counteroffensive against Father Time. 

Gleyber Torres, in a walk year of his own, got off to a horrid start, looking like a shell of himself for the first half of the season. Per the New York Post, after hitting to a .654 OPS before the All-Star Break, something clicked in a workout session with Yankee legend Gio Urshela and Gleyber’s personal hitting coach – he credits his success to placing more of an emphasis on going to the opposite field. Paired with a move into the leadoff spot, Gleyber once again became a threat in the Yankees lineup. Down the stretch and into the playoffs, his bat was indispensable for the Yankees, with a near .300 average and a .780 OPS. Even with this resurgence, his overall numbers on the season are not pretty, and paired with possibly the worst second base defensive metrics in the league, he may be seeking a short-term deal to re-establish his market. 

While Gleyber Torres eventually put the revolving door at the leadoff spot to rest, there was no resolution to the cleanup spot going into the playoffs. Originally, Alex Verdugo took up that role, having a first month that was characteristic to his past self, but went quickly downhill afterwards. Some may be quick to lambaste Brian Cashman for this acquisition, but to be fair, on paper, he was a perfect fit: a lefty bat entering his age-28 contract year who had an OPS+ of 100 or more in all of his full seasons, who had hit 39 and 37 doubles in his past two years (some of which would turn into home runs with the Yankee Stadium short porch), strong defense to combat the cavernous Yankee Stadium left field, and exiting a situation where both parties had grown tired of each other for his former team’s biggest rival. Inexplicably, he posted career worst numbers, with a WAR lower than ever single one of his previous full seasons, (including the 2020 COVID year) and an OPS+ of 83. He maintained his strong defense and seemed to be beloved in the clubhouse, but he struggled at the plate for most of the year, and the Yankees refused to call up top prospect Jasson Dominguez to try to put even a little pressure on him to perform. He was relegated to the bottom of the lineup by the end of the year, even when Dominguez had gotten called up. 

Throughout the year, other players were tried out in the cleanup spot, one of them being rookie catcher Austin Wells. Despite being touted as an offensively-minded catcher as a prospect, his defense is what popped the most upon his call-up, his final Fangraphs defense score being 5th in the league. After platooning with Jose Trevino at the beginning of the year, his bat came along after Trevino got injured, resulting in Wells being placed in the cleanup spot; in the months of July and August, he hit near a .900 OPS, and was the all-around best catcher in the league in that span. Although his season was dragged down by an awful final month, where he slugged .194, he still proved to be a valuable player when he wasn’t hitting, given his defense and 11.4% walk rate. For what it’s worth, his offensive drop off coincided with being hit by a pitch in the hand, although there were no reports of him being severely injured. Even still, he was nominated for Rookie of the Year, and considering the flashes of offense and valuable defense, it was a very promising rookie season for Wells. If he continues on this trajectory, it would be one of the biggest position player development triumphs for the Yankees in recent memory. 

Giancarlo Stanton also had a renaissance after a dismal 2023, after which many, including myself, figured him to be done. After hitting to career worst stats and dealing with injuries, coming into his age 34 season, he slimmed down a bit in the offseason to stay healthier and more limber. He still has his unmistakable raw power (first in the league in bat speed, even at his advanced age), yet that is about all he has left. As Bob Costas pointedly and repeatedly remarked during the ALDS broadcasts, Stanton is a glass cannon: he cannot run, he cannot field, and his body is on the verge of falling apart, but when he connects with a ball, he does damage. He missed a month after suffering a hamstring injury jogging to home plate in the summer, but when he was healthy, he was very effective, hitting 27 home runs in 114 games, with a wRC+ of 116, thirty points higher than his 2023 mark. Despite his up-and-down Yankees tenure, his postseason heroics have cemented his eminent status on the team. 

Trade deadline acquisition Jazz Chisholm Jr. provided an immediate spark to a Yankees team mired in a slump, hitting nine home runs and to a 1.014 OPS in his first 24 games with the team. The Yankees acquired him from Miami, with catcher Agustin Ramirez being the centerpiece of the trade. Ramirez had been raking in AA and showed signs of being a MLB bat, but giving him up is what it takes to get a strong bat and versatile defender. Chisholm infused the team with some much needed athleticism, shown in his base-stealing proficiency and his overall strong defense at third base, a position which he had never played before. Infield seems to be his strength; in Miami, he played second base, where he excelled, and this year had mostly played center field, where he was not as sure-handed. Despite slowing down at the end of the year and throughout the postseason, he is under control for another two years and will be a useful piece going forward, whether he stays at third or moves back to second, which he may, as he is not as experienced with the mental aspect of playing third base. 

As a group, the starting pitching seemed to thrive together, yet also languish together. When Gerrit Cole was out for the first part of the year with an elbow injury, the entire rotation pitched well. Once he came back, the rest of the rotation seemed to regress; Clarke Schmidt, who had an ERA in the mid-twos, landed on the IL with a lat strain, taking him out for three months, while Carlos Rodón, Luis Gil, Nestor Cortes, and Marcus Stroman all seemed to get worse.

This downturn lasted for a while, but they initially regained their footing, with Gil establishing a slider, leading him to a 3.50 ERA and an AL Rookie of the Year win, and Cole slowly returning to resembling his Cy Young self, finishing the year with a 3.41 ERA. Otherwise, the starting pitching stayed mostly free of injuries until Nestor Cortes landed on the IL with an elbow flexor injury a few days before the postseason, only returning for the World Series. With Schmidt returning, Cortes and Stroman became the odd men out of the playoffs rotation. 

The relievers were a similar story, in that the bullpen sorted itself out by the end of the year. By the end of the year the most effective relievers were Luke Weaver, a converted starter, Tommy Kahnle, a free agent signing, Tim Hill, picked up off waivers, and Clay Holmes, who started the year as the closer but promptly lost his job. Despite starting the season with complete dominance (20 outings before a blown save), he quickly deteriorated, eventually blowing 13 saves before the Yankees decided to try him in another role. Luke Weaver took over his role as the lead guy in the bullpen, and he was a revelation in the postseason. He continues the Yankees’ trend of reviving pitchers in the bullpen, in his case caused by an adjustment to his changeup grip, turning it into a weapon. The bullpen was not one of the dominant ones in the league, but at the end of the year it ranked 6th in the league with a 3.62 bullpen ERA per Covers, and was brilliant for most of the postseason. 

Playoff Recap:

Entering the postseason, the Yankees were set up as well as anybody. All of their key contributors save Nestor Cortes and to some extent Jake Cousins were healthy, and they had clinched the division with a series left in the regular season, giving them a bye past the wild card series and some time to reset. On top of that, with the dreaded Astros being eliminated by the upstart Tigers, and the division rival Orioles, who had been a thorn in their side all season, being eliminated by the Royals, only the notoriously weak AL central was left, making the pathway to the World Series as easy as it had ever been for them.

They dispatched of the Royals fairly easily in the first round, taking four games to do so. This series was relatively ho-hum, in that there were not many reversals in any trends. Aaron Judge continued his postseason struggles, while Giancarlo Stanton and Juan Soto picked up his slack. The starting pitching fared mostly well with Cole starting twice, having some struggles in game 1 but dominating game 4, Rodón having one rough outing leading to a game two loss, and Schmidt having one mediocre one in game three. But it was the bullpen, led by closer Luke Weaver and new set-up man Clay Holmes that shined, completely shutting down the Kansas City offense, not allowing an earned run. Aaron Boone deserves some credit for his bullpen deployment in this series; despite some questionable decisions later on, he mostly knew when to go to his top guys in the first two rounds. Facing off against a formidable Royals pitching staff, the offense provided just enough to get by, priming them for an ALCS matchup with the AL Central champion Cleveland Guardians. 

Against Cleveland, the Yankees held the edge in the lineup and starting pitching, but a deficit in the bullpen, of which the Guardians had the best in the league. The suspense of the ALCS surpassed the previous round; the Yankees took the first two games, in game one propelled by Juan Soto and Giancarlo Stanton home runs, and a strong 6.1 inning from Carlos Rodón. They took game two fairly easily as well, with Cole going 4.1 innings and Judge hitting a home run to cement their lead. In the series, the Guardians did not play their representative baseball, making uncharacteristic fielding errors and getting hurt by some of AL Manager of the Year Stephen Vogt’s decisions.

They struck back in game 3, though; after Judge and Stanton went back-to-back off shutdown closer Emmanuel Clase to take the lead, seemingly putting the nail in the Guardians’ coffin, the Yankee bullpen finally cracked with Jhonkensy Noel’s game-tying home run off Luke Weaver in the 9th, followed by a David Fry walk off homer against Clay Holmes in the next inning. The stress did not abate in the next game; after Stanton hit a massive three-run homer off Cade Smith to take the lead in the sixth, the Yankees coughed up the lead again, only for them to retake the lead off Clase in the top of the ninth. 

Game 5 provided the signature moment of the playoff run. Up 3-1 in the series but down 2-0 in the sixth inning, Giancarlo Stanton drilled a Tanner Bibee breaking ball into the left field bleachers, tying the game. Then, in the top of the tenth with the game still tied, Juan Soto, facing one of the top relievers in the game in Hunter Gaddis, put up one of the greatest at-bats in recent memory, fouling off pitch after pitch until he got a fastball up and on the outside part of the zone. He drove into right center for a three-run home run, all but sending the Yankees to the World Series. It was only fitting that in his first year in the Bronx, Soto would provide the Yankees with their greatest postseason moment since Mark Teixeira caught Robinson Canó’s throw on November 4th, 2009. Giancarlo Stanton deservedly won ALCS MVP, his four home runs, along with Soto and to a lesser extent Gleyber Torres, keeping the Yankees offense alive in the series. 

In the World Series, the step up in the Yankees’ opposition was plainly visible. The Yankees had not seen anything like the Dodger offense for nearly the entire year, but they had the healthier and more consistent starting pitching, an advantage they had to exploit. This edge quickly vanished when they lost the first Cole game, game one, as a result of a walkoff Freddie Freeman grand slam. After the game, Aaron Boone was ripped by fans for bringing in Nestor Cortes to face the top of the Dodger lineup instead of Tim Hill. Boone had already taken out Cole with only 88 pitches and used his two top options, Weaver and Holmes, forcing him to put in Jake Cousins to try to close out the game. Cousins walked the bottom of the lineup, putting two men on base for Ohtani.

Boone opted for Cortes, who had not pitched in nearly a month, thinking that Hill, a sinkerballer, would induce soft contact against the speedy Shohei Ohtani. In terms of the matchup with Ohtani, Cortes likely was the right move. Yet, against the next two batters, the matchup was much worse. Cortes got Ohtani out, assisted by a magnificent Alex Verdugo catch, but they intentionally walked Mookie Betts to get to the hobbled Freeman, who Cortes left a first-pitch down-and-in fastball to (this was the worst possible pitch to throw; he missed his spot), which Freeman rocketed into the right field stands for the win.

Looking back now, this was the moment that decided the World Series. But what was less talked about is how they reached this position in the first place; Soto misplayed multiple balls in right throughout the game, one leading to a Kiké Hernández triple (who later scored) and the other an Ohtani double in the eighth, who eventually scored the run to tie it. Torres also failed to pick the ball at second base on the throw-in, allowing Ohtani to reach third. Against a better team, little fielding and management errors on the margin cost them. 

After being mostly shut down by Jack Flaherty, who the Yankees had a deal in place for at the deadline but backed out of because of medicals, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who had turned down their offer for the Dodgers, dominated them in game two. Aside from a Juan Soto home run and a Stanton RBI, the Yankee offense was nowhere to be seen until a desperate rally that came up short in the ninth, while Freeman and the Dodger offense got to Carlos Rodón for four runs early.

Game three at Yankee Stadium was much of the same, with Freddie Freeman hitting another home run, this time off Clarke Schmidt, and the Yankees offense being held to nothing until a meaningless Alex Verdugo home run with 1 out left in the game. All of a sudden, they were down 3-0, the series all but over. 

Game four, while it could have been the start of a legendary comeback, turned out to be the Yankees’ last gasp. For once, they played like the team with less pressure on them; combined with the insane Mookie Betts fan interference play, the feel of the series began to turn from doom to aggression. The night was marked by an Anthony Volpe grand slam, which took the momentum back after another Freddie Freeman home run. Later, Gleyber Torres put the game out of reach with a three run home run, giving the Yankees a glimmer of hope in the series. No team had ever taken a 3-0 deficit in the World Series to a game six. They had one more game to win, and then they were in uncharted territory. 

Their journey towards uncharted territory went less like Neil Armstrong’s and more like that of Captain Cook. In the first inning of game five, Aaron Judge awoke, hitting a two-run home run off Jack Flaherty. Jazz Chisholm followed him up with a home run of his own. By the fifth inning, the Yankees had a five run lead, and with Gerrit Cole cruising, game six was looking like a real possibility. That was until Aaron Judge dropped a fly ball, with one man on base, leading to a Dodger rally. Some said that this was a choke, but I find it hard to believe he was thinking about the gravity of the situation while running to catch the ball. It was simply a one-in-a-million type play that happened at the wrong time, but in a similar category to other mistakes made by the Yankees far too often.

Later in the inning, a ball was grounded to Anthony Volpe’s right, which he grabbed, and threw to third to get the force, but the throw was low, and Jazz Chisholm couldn’t pick it, extending the inning. Then, Mookie Betts cued one to first base – the spin prevented Anthony Rizzo from being able to charge it, while Gerrit Cole did not cover first, leading to Betts reaching. Soon after, the game was tied. The Yankees Bill Buckner’d themselves three times in one inning. 

Watching from the third base side of Yankee Stadium, I vividly remember each of these blunders and the moments directly after. When Judge dropped the ball, the entire stadium tensed up; everyone, including me, realized the first few innings were too good to be true. Gerrit Cole was soon taken out, and the Dodgers rallied to get two more runs, while the Yankees could only muster up one more. By the end of the night, the Dodgers were celebrating their championship on the Yankees’ home field. 

In the end, the Yankees were doomed by the issues that plagued them all year. The lineup, prone to swings in performance, went dormant, while the defense and base running failed them at crucial moments. In Joel Sherman’s recap of the World Series in the New York Post, he claimed the Dodgers’ scouting report of the Yankees detailed “talent over fundamentals,” a phrase, along with the images of the Yankees’ preposterous fielding errors, will be etched into the memories of Yankees fans. 

The remaining question is: who is the most to blame?  The front office and management certainly could have done more; Brian Cashman could have been more aggressive at the deadline, and Aaron Boone could have managed the team better at times. Even still, given the nature of sample sizes, the main job of the front office is to get the team to the postseason in a good position, where the burden then falls on the players to perform to the back of their baseball cad. And ultimately, they made it to the Fall Classic, and in that series, the person who shares the largest part of the blame is Aaron Judge. Sadly, while Aaron Judge had a season for the ages, its memory will be tainted by his postseason performance, where he was pressing, and looked unrecognizable to his regular season self. While his teammate Giancarlo Stanton is approaching Bernie Williams’ all-time Yankee franchise record in postseason home runs in 22, Judge is the all-time postseason leader in strikeout rate. Without Judge hitting, the Yankees were doomed.

Offseason Outlook:

The major storyline of the offseason is Juan Soto’s free agency.  There is no question that retaining him should be the Yankees’ first priority, yet it is no sure thing. The market is a perfect storm for Soto; he just had his best season of his career, he is only 26, Ohtani just got $700 million last offseason, and the teams in the running for him either desperately need him or have hoards of money to spend.

From the beginning, the Mets have been the major threat to the Yankees’ pursuit of Soto considering Steve Cohen’s vast personal wealth and the $150M coming off the Mets’ books, but I also wouldn’t discount the reports that the Dodgers and the Red Sox are in on Soto. The deferrals in Ohtani’s contract means the Dodgers are only paying him $2 million per year, allowing them financial flexibility. Ohtani’s contract is also relevant in that it will be the precedent for Soto’s contract. The present value (accounting for the inflation in the $68 million he is receiving 10+ years from now) of Ohtani’s contract is $46 million, which is the number that counts against the luxury tax. 

Knowing Soto’s agent Scott Boras, he and Soto will likely try to break either the present AAV of Ohtani’s contract, and possibly even the total of $700 million. Considering that the market is already set for Soto and the debacle of last year, where the main Boras clients in Cody Bellinger, Jordan Montgomery, and Blake Snell stayed unsigned until spring training and had to settle for lesser deals, Soto will be trying to ink a new deal sooner rather than later, with reports saying that he could have a new deal as soon as the Winter Meetings.

In the end, I think he gets over the $46 million marker of the Ohtani contract present value; in terms of pure value, Soto is not worth more AAV for longer years than Ohtani, but the market for his services is not competitive whatsoever, meaning that the price can easily be run up by circumstance. He should be the first priority of the Yankees, as he is nearly guaranteed star production for the next eight-plus years.

With the right amount of pressure, Hal Steinbrenner has shown a willingness to spend on free agents; in 2022, he eventually gave Aaron Judge the last year on his contract to seal the deal, and went out and got Gerrit Cole after the 2019 season when in desperate need for an ace. In the cases of the free agents they’ve lost out on like Yamamoto, they did not feel nearly the same need and pressure to acquire. Juan Soto is already familiar with the Yankees, and he still fits into this franchise and city perfectly, given his preference for a team with a winning pedigree.

The Yankees still make more money than just about any other team; ultimately, I think they are the favorites to re-sign him, but it depends on if Steve Cohen really decides to flex his spending muscles, going past a certain point that gives the Yankees cold feet. Locking up Soto would extend this current Judge-Cole-Stanton window of contention and provide a seamless transition into the next one, after the veteran core retires. 

One of Soto’s questions for Hal Steinbrenner during their recent meeting was about their plans to improve the team for next season around him and Judge. This will be difficult if they pay Soto upwards of $45 million per year, as Hal Steinbrenner has expressed concern over the sustainability of this year’s payroll. Even so, there are still options that could keep them below a $300 million payroll, which seems to be the upper limit of the luxury tax. 

The major non-Soto pending free agents all seem likely to depart. Alex Verdugo is surely gone given Jasson Dominguez’s need for major league run, Clay Holmes will likely get paid handsomely by a reliever-needy team, which the Yankees rarely seem to be (or a team looking to convert him to the starting rotation), and in all likelihood, Gleyber Torres’ time in pinstripes is done as well.

Considering the lackluster infield defense, the Yankees will be reluctant to commit long-term to Torres, who graded out as the worst defensive second baseman in baseball. A lot of his mistakes seem to stem from a lack of focus, whether it’s slumping during trade rumors and during contract years, or his baserunning and fielding blunders. In the past, he has expressed his love for being a Yankee, and he also may be trying to reset his market with a short term deal. If he is trying to do so with a one-to-two year deal with player options, this would be the only way the Yankees would hypothetically bring him back.

This is still extremely unlikely, especially considering the recent comments by Aaron Boone and Brian Cashman touting infield prospect Caleb Durbin’s performance this year and hinting at an upcoming role for him to play this season. Seemingly, they are planning to let Gleyber walk, re-sign Soto, and fill the infield gap with Caleb Durbin, who can play both third and second base. Durbin, despite only standing at 5’6”, posted a .867 OPS with the AAA Scranton Wilkes-Barre Railriders this year, finding success with speed and strong defense. In addition, he actually began to show some power in AAA as well. Durbin outperforming some of his underlying metrics like xWOBA and exit velocity is not simply because of good luck; it is because he pulls a higher amount of fly balls than most other players, which is the batted ball type that typically results in the best possible outcome (seen in stats like weighted on base average).

In AAA, he had a pull rate of 56.4% (for reference, Isaac Paredes’ pull rate was 53.7% this past year). Stats like xWOBA do not account for where the ball was hit, only the launch angle and exit velocity. Yet, he did not completely sell out for power, as he had a .287 average, low strikeout rate and high walk rate. If he sustains some of this performance in the majors, it seems like he can contribute to some degree, but even so, starting a prospect, and not a particularly highly rated one in a win-now year is a risky move. 

If they re-sign Soto, they may have too many other holes to fill with the remaining money, likely making Durbin the infield plan-A. If Soto does not come back and they have more money to spend, their options open up to free agents Alex Bregman, Willy Adames, and Ha-seong Kim. Bregman may be the one most connected to the Yankees, as giving Adames shortsop money to not play short, where he is a very capable defender, would not be a smart allocation of resources. Ha-seong Kim, though, would quietly be a good option for the Yankees to replace Gleyber Torres. He is a much better defender, would not cost very much (Spotrac has him projected at around $12 million AAV), and with his skillset could solve the leadoff spot.

Although he had a down year offensively in 2024, Kim still walks a lot, rarely chases or strikes out, is fast, and has a high contact% of 85.7%. Importantly,  he can play shortstop, second base, and third base; with him and Jazz in the lineup it provides Aaron Boone with great positional flexibility. Despite his average being .233, his low BABIP of .261 indicates an element of bad luck being in play; yet, his low BABIP may also partially be caused by his low hard hit% and exit velocity, which also result in weak slugging numbers. He is also coming off a season-ending labrum tear, an injury that often lingers in hitters.

As a result, the Yankees could opt to trade for Nico Hoerner from the Cubs, who has a very similar profile to Kim but with a higher average and less walks. A more aggressive approach to hitting is something the Yankees actually need in order to balance the lineup, as they rank in the bottom three in nearly every swing% statistic on Fangraphs. 

Alex Bregman is seeking a big-money contract around $30 million per year, meaning he is likely a non-Soto option. Despite coming off his worst season OPS-wise of his career, he is only 30 years old, defense is still strong, and he racked up 4.1 WAR. The main concern about him is that a large portion of his slugging output was from home runs into the Crawford Boxes in Houston, and he does not have the same type of power to the rest of the field as someone like Christian Walker.

Also, his righty/lefty splits are abnormal; for the past few years, he has been much better against right-handed pitching than left-handed pitching, making him slightly redundant in the lineup. I would not be completely opposed to Bregman, but considering his price, there are better value options. Nolan Arenado has been discussed as a trade candidate, but his recent down offensive seasons may be a signal of age-related decline. 

This leads me to the next major hole of the offseason: first base, where there are a multitude of directions to go. There has been speculation around trading for Cody Bellinger from the Cubs, Paul Goldschmidt from the Cardinals, Yandy Diaz from the Rays, and signing free agents Pete Alonso, Carlos Santana or Christian Walker. Goldschmidt and Alonso I am completely out on– Goldschmidt is old and declining, while Alonso will be very expensive (Spotrac projection $29 million AAV), is a poor defender, and would be redundant with Giancarlo Stanton. While Bellinger’s outfield and first base versatility may be useful, his salary is $26 million, and his production has varied wildly from year to year. His production is equal-to-worse than some of the other options and his salary is higher, but that also means he could be acquired for cheap.

For Christian Walker, while I do think he is a good player, his entering next season at the age of 34 and his 2024 being a step down from his past two years gives me some pause. The Yankees just saw the riskiness of signing a player going into their mid-30s with DJ LeMahieu, and while there aren’t any glaring underlying metrics suggesting step regression is coming with Walker, he has mildly declined the past couple years, and power hitters always become more fickle with age.

Yandy Diaz, while he cannot lift the ball, still hits the ball with force, but he is a bad baserunner and defender. His OPS took a dive in 2024 but the underlying metrics stayed the same, so they may be able to get him for below his value. The Rays are typically not easily fooled, though, so it would likely take haul to pry him from them. While the image of him hitting in front of Soto and Judge may be attractive, he doesn’t fill some of the other needs of the team, making him an imperfect acquisition. That does not mean the Yankees should be out on him, though; none of the options on here are perfect. For the right price, I would be happy if they traded for him, more so than most other first base candidates. 

An option that has not been talked about as frequently is trading for Nathaniel Lowe from the Texas Rangers. The Rangers seem to be in the market for pitching and dumping some salary, and Lowe was a name being thrown into the trade rumor mill this past deadline. He is only 29 years old with another year of team control and is an equally stout defender at first base compared to Walker, while having more bWAR than him. (Walker eclipsed him in fWAR, though). 

Lowe also adds some more left-handed balance to the lineup and in 2024, actually had a better OPS against left-handed pitching than right handed pitching (another weakness of the lineup) but does not hit for as much power as Christian Walker, only having 16 home runs to Walker’s 26. Even so, Lowe has power to all sides of the field, In most of their statistics, they are fairly similar. Controlling for salary (Lowe is making 10.7 million next year, while Walker is projected to make around 20 million), in terms of pure production for next year, Walker may be the better option, but considering salary and age, I would prefer Lowe.

Another factor to consider is Walker being a short-term commitment provides a pathway to moving Aaron Judge or Juan Soto to first base once he is gone, solving the outfield logjam. The same could be said for Diaz and 38-year old Carlos Santana, the switch hitting first baseman who seems to never stop producing. Despite being old, he will likely come cheap and on a short term deal, and somehow not shown signs of decline so he is an option not dependent on the status of Soto, albeit less attractive than the other two options. If they don’t bring back Soto, they likely make the splashier move and sign Walker, but if they do bring him back, they may look into trading assets like Nestor Cortes or prospects for Lowe or Diaz, which is more likely the prudent move as well. 

Once the first priorities of free agency are resolved in Soto and the infield, the Yankees can turn their attention to the rest of the team. Firstly, they should bring back Tim Hill and Tommy Kahnle, both of whom provided admirable efforts down the stretch for the team and should not cost very much. Jonathan Loaisiga is a free agent as well, and although he is often injured, re-signing him is a low-risk but with the possibility of a high reward. Recent history has shown that giving relievers long term, big money deals is often a fool’s errand; Josh Hader, after pitching to a 1.23 ERA in 2023 and signing to a $19 million AAV contract with the Astros, had a 3.80 ERA this year. In 2022, the Yankees paid Aroldis Chapman $18 million to pitch to a 4.46 ERA. The Mets are in a similar predicament with Edwin Diaz, who has not been as dominant since signing his big extension.

That being said, three of the top relievers in the league are available in free agency or in a possible trade, in Tanner Scott, Ryan Helsley, and Devin Williams. Williams and Helsley have one more year of control, so it may not take much to acquire them from the Brewers and Cardinals respectively, but if they trade for them, it would be for the purpose of re-signing them. Therefore, they should look to get a free agent reliever without giving up assets before trading for one.

Getting a more established reliever would provide more stability to a Yankee bullpen that has relied mostly on reclamation projects. While they have found plenty of success doing it, getting one of the top options like Scott, Jeff Hoffman, or Carlos Estévez would provide more stability and afford more leeway for the typical Matt Blake reclamation project to develop. Prospects such as Clayton Beeter or Yoendrys Gómez could factor into the bullpen equation this year, so signing a reliever is not as much of a priority given their success with elevating them in the past. If they did sign one of the top ones, though, going for one of the most expensive ones brings more risk, so they may gravitate towards one year deals. 

The same could be said for the starting pitching. The Yankees overpaid Marcus Stroman last year by giving him $18 million, even though he pitched essentially to the back of his baseball card. He did a serviceable job eating innings, although they did not seem completely content with their pitching staff, seen in their pursuit of Jack Flaherty and rumored shopping of Nestor Cortes at the trade deadline.

Aces Max Fried and Corbin Burnes are available, but it would likely come at a steep price, making both of these options one of the non-Soto possibilities. Thinking in terms of the playoff rotation, acquiring a top pitcher that is substantially better than one of Clarke Schmidt or Luis Gil may be worth going out and getting. But in a market where Yusei Kikuchi, who had an ERA above 4 last year, got $21 million per year, it may not be worth it to pay a mid-level starter that money to only be a marginal upgrade over what they already have. If they do not trade both of them, they can use Marcus Stroman and Nestor Cortes as their fifth starter while supplementing cheap pitchers or prospects like Will Warren for depth. 

If I had to predict what the Yankees would do, it would go: re-signing Soto,(~$46 million AAV) trading for Cody Bellinger, starting Durbin at second base, and signing some cheap relievers (Hill, Kahnle, someone like A.J. Minter) while dumping Marcus Stroman’s salary. Although I am not dead set on it, my offseason plan, taking into account that the Yankees want to keep payroll below the $300 million mark, would be: sign Soto, trade for Hoerner and Bellinger (I am not in love with Bellinger but to get Hoerner, the deal may have to include his salary) dump Stroman’s salary somewhere, sign the relievers mentioned above, and get a cheap pitcher like Mike Soroka to fill the depth starter/long reliever role along with Cody Poteet. If the Yankees can just get Hoerner from the Cubs, then I’d rather them trade for Lowe to fill the first base gap.

This offseason is obviously a pivotal one for the Yankees, with the Soto question and the urgency brought by having aging star players in Judge and Cole. Brian Cashman is still a very polarizing figure even after this year’s World Series berth.  Given that the regular season, being a larger sample size, is a better representation of the team and efforts of the GM overall, it is reasonable to conclude that he is certainly an above-average executive, and the Yankees a good operation  – but at this point, below the level of Andrew Friedman and the Dodgers. While there is a higher degree of variability in the playoffs, there are definitely ways for a front office to put themselves in a better position to succeed, and in that respect, the Dodgers were clearly better than the Yankees, seen in their respective processes.

Going through a month-long stretch with Soto, Judge, and Austin Wells being the only capable hitters while having the highest payroll in the league is an indictment on the Yankees’ hitting depth and development. They have generated many hyped prospects over the past decade, but compared to the other top franchises, very few have panned out. The only one who has both become a long term contributor and surpassed their initial hype is Aaron Judge, and he even credits his swing to an outside hitting coach (I believe Caleb Durbin has the same hitting coach). Volpe and Wells look promising, but so did Gary Sanchez and Miguel Andujar, and nameless other hitting prospects who never met expectations.

To the Yankees’ credit, they are very successful at developing pitchers, but this quality does not completely set them apart from their competition either; the Dodgers had multiple rotations worth of MLB-caliber pitchers on the injured list and still won the World Series. The Dodgers continue to add players, even when they feel as if they have a strength in that area, because they know a strength can become a weakness quickly (see: Tommy Edman, Teoscar Hernández acquisitions). The Dodgers, as do teams like the Padres, are willing to trade top prospects to get proven talent, while also developing prospects to fill those gaps.

At this point Brian Cashman is as much a part of the institutions of the Yankees as Hal Steinbrenner. He defines the “Yankee Way,” which, while still one of the premier operations in baseball, has fallen behind in some regard. The Yankees are not the richest anymore, and many teams are just as if not more savvy in their development and acquisitions as they are. The competition has now caught up, with some teams even passing them. 

As much as fans are upset with the Yankees’ regular postseason failures, there is still a lot going for them. If they keep Soto, combined with many of their young pieces, there is a pathway to contention for the next decade. Nevertheless, the options not including Soto are not as impressive, and with the league becoming even more competitive and the Judge-Cole window nearing its final years, there is not as much leeway for missteps. 

Categories: 2024 Season Review, Articles, Season Analysis

Tags: 2024 Season Review, New York Yankees