Image: Andy Lyons/Getty Images
Check out my 2024 Season Preview Article for the Diamondbacks here.
2024 Record: 89-73 (.549 win%, 3rd in Division)
2024 Payroll: $124,725,000 (12th)
2024 Top 10 Players (by fWAR):
1. 2B Ketel Marte, 6.3 fWAR, 151 wRC+, .292 AVG/.372 OBP/.560 SLG
2. CF/RF Corbin Carroll, 4.0 fWAR, 107 wRC+, .231 AVG/.322 OBP/.428 SLG
3. 3B Eugenio Suárez, 3.8 fWAR, 115 wRC+. .256 AVG/.319 OBP/.469 SLG
4. SP Zac Gallen, 3.2 fWAR, 3.65 ERA, 25.1 K%, 8.7 BB%
5. RF/CF Jake McCarthy, 3.0 fWAR, 110 wRC+, .285 AVG/.349 OBP/.400 SLG
6. 1B Christian Walker, 3.0 fWAR, 119 wRC+, .251 AVG/.335 OBP/.468 SLG
7. DH Joc Pederson, 3.0 fWAR, 151 wRC+, .275 AVG/.393 OBP/.515 SLG
8. C Gabriel Moreno, 2.5 fWAR, 107 wRC+, .266 AVG/.353 OBP/.380 SLG
9. LF Lourdes Gurriel Jr., 2.2 fWAR, 108 wRC+, .279 AVG/.322 OBP/.435 SLG
10. SP Ryne Nelson, 2.1 fWAR, 4.24 ERA, 20.0 K%, 5.4%
M-SABR Predicted Record (87-75) vs. Actual (89-73):
Considering the randomness of baseball compounding with the unpredictability of younger teams, I will take being off by two games from my preseason prediction. Although I may seem close to what I originally thought about the Diamondbacks’ fortunes for this season, there was a lot I missed the mark on.
In my preview, I first noted that the Diamondbacks had an offense with only “one obvious below-average hitter.” This was on the mark, as only one player with at least 200 plate appearances for the D-Backs had a sub 100 wRC+, Kevin Newman (88). The rest of their offensive core was as good as it gets, as all seven of their players with at least 400 PAs cleared the 100 wRC+ threshold, making them above average hitters, and five of those seven were securely above average, with figures over 110. The unit as a whole was elite, ranking 1st in runs and 4th in wRC+ in 2024.
Additionally, I stated the Diamondbacks had “a stable rotation that should eat innings proficiently.” Boy was I wrong. In 2024, the D-Backs ranked 19th in innings pitched by starters, as projected workhorses Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Jordan Montgomery only posted 73, 50, and 104 innings, respectively. The trio as a whole drastically underperformed as well, as they contributed to only 1.7 fWAR and a 5.33 ERA across those 227 innings. While Zac Gallen and Brandon Pfaadt did what they could to hold the pitching staff together, the aforementioned trio’s abysmal performance in 2024 was likely what kept the Diamondbacks from winning 95 games.
Lastly, I mentioned the D-Backs had an improved bullpen. While the acquisition of Paul Sewald encouraged my opinion of the Diamondbacks bullpen at the time, it later proved inconsequential to the improvement of the unit. Sewald only recorded 16 saves in 2024 in 42 appearances, largely due to enduring four separate stints on the injured list. While rookie Justin Martinez’s breakout greatly helped the struggling unit, they still ranked 22nd and 25th in fWAR and ERA.
Regular Season Recap:
After a busy offseason, the Diamondbacks looked poised on Opening Day, March 28th, to make another playoff run following their magical 2023 season. These ambitions seemed valid, as the D-Backs torched the Rockies, scoring 32 runs in the opening set of the 2024 season. They stood confident at 3-1, and looked to keep their offense rolling into April.
Unfortunately, this hot start quickly fizzled out, as the Snakes put up an uncompetitive 11-16 record over the next month. They ranked 18th in wRC+ (92), with the pitching staff in a similar position, posting a 4.03 FIP, also good for 18th across the span. Was it a hangover of sorts? Did their offseason acquisitions end up being duds? Not necessarily.
This slow start was the result of a number of unfortunate circumstances, namely Corbin Carroll’s early struggles. After winning the NL Rookie of the Year Award and making an All-Star appearance, showcasing his electric skillset to all baseball fans in his first full season, Carroll’s inability to hit for power and steal bases prolifically in the beginning of 2024 was a massive hit to the D-Backs’ offense, and a sophomore slump seemed like a possibility. Many suspected he was playing through a shoulder injury. This slump lasted the entire first half of the season, with his attempts to break out of it thwarted by a nagging rib injury suffered in mid-June.
Not to mention, the top of the starting rotation was in shambles during the first month of the season. The acquisition of Jordan Montgomery the day after Opening Day granted him no ramp-up period during spring training, and he was forced to start his year at AAA Reno until the latter half of April. As a result of being thrown off his typical preseason routine, Montgomery struggled mightily, posting a 6.58 ERA and 4.78 FIP through his first 10 starts.
The primary suspect of Montgomery’s regression was a noticeable drop in his pitch shapes, making his arsenal less effective and margin for error much smaller while on the mound. Across the board, Montgomery lost velocity, his fastball lost almost an inch of ride, and his curveball shape trended towards league average. He did ditch the cutter for a slider that wasn’t a bad offering in the limited time he threw it, but it wasn’t close to enough to improve his fortunes, as he was sent to the bullpen while turning in a year everyone would rather forget.
But the pitching problems didn’t stop there. Eduardo Rodriguez, an additional big free agent acquisition with big expectations for 2024, had an unfortunate start to his season. On opening day he was placed on the IL with a left shoulder strain, and would not return until August. Throw in a month long IL stay for ace Zac Gallen and the D-Backs had blinked and found themselves at 25-32 after May, a long way away from where they expected to be at the start of the season.
The Snakes did their best to patch up the rotation and survive until everyone was fully healthy, starting Ryne Nelson, Slade Cecconi, and Tommy Henry a combined 19 times before the month of June. Let’s just say it did not go swimmingly. If you’re wondering how the team was able to stay remotely close to .500 amid this turmoil, consider it a minor miracle because the team ranked only 22nd in wRC+ (93) through May as well. A lot had to go right for the Diamondbacks to get back into it and, well, it did.
Over the next six weeks, the D-Backs went on a run, winning 24 of their next 40 games, just in time to find themselves at 49-48 before the All-Star break. A bevy of Diamondbacks hitters had found themselves scorching hot, but no more than Ketel Marte. Over the 36 games to close out the first half, Marte dominated, posting 176 wRC+, 9 homers, 6 doubles, and 2.2 fWAR, good for 2nd in the National League in that span.
The Diamondbacks were rolling, and with a 17-8 July and 18-9 August in hand, they sat at 76-60, poised to close in on the second wild card down the stretch. Corbin Carroll was back. Zac Gallen was holding the rotation together. Ketel Marte looked like an MVP candidate. It was their spot to lose.
While the Snakes had taken care of business against the majority of the teams they had faced up until this point, a couple of crucial matchups with the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets did not go their way earlier in the season. Arizona held 2-5 and 3-4 records against both teams, respectively, an important detail should both teams be vying with the D-Backs for the final two playoff spots.
Well, this is exactly the situation they found themselves in. With a month to play, they held a four game lead over the Mets and a two game lead over the Braves. All they needed to do was play better than them or even just post the same record as them, and their ticket to October would be stamped.
As September wore on, the Mets’ magic continued, as they won 17 of 26 to close the year, finishing 89-73. The Braves similarly had found a groove that was missing most of the season, and they closed out 15 of their last 26 to also finish 89-73.
The Diamondbacks? They faded down the stretch, and were riddled with inconsistencies as they desperately tried to stay in the race. There were two separate three-game winning streaks, and two separate three-game losing streaks in September alone. They limped to the finish line, winning only half their games in September. They finished the year… 89-73. They found themselves in a three-way tie with the Mets and Braves, a tie where they were the odd man out. They were the best team to miss the playoffs since the 91-win Blue Jays and 90-win Mariners both came up short in 2021.
Player We Watched #1: OF Corbin Carroll
The first player we had our eyes on was Corbin Carroll. The sophomore outfielder had hefty expectations placed on him before his second season following his dominant rookie year which resulted in the franchise’s first Rookie of the Year Award win. He was expected to be the heartbeat atop the Snakes’ lineup where he could hit 25 home runs and steal 50 bags in a given season.
Unfortunately for Carroll this season, he missed both of those benchmarks that he had surpassed just one year earlier. A struggle that lasted until the All-Star break led to many questions, primarily surrounding his shoulder which had been operated on in the past, and whether this sophomore slump was representative of who Carroll truly was as a player.
Out of the All-Star break however, Corbin silenced these questions as he underwent a torrid stretch to close out the season where he posted a 147 wRC+, 8 triples, and 17 homers in the final 63 games of the season. Whether he can carry this second half production into 2025 remains to be seen, but for now Carroll has reestablished himself as the crowning jewel of the franchise.
Player We Watched #2: SP Brandon Pfaadt
After Carroll, we chose to watch young right-hander Brandon Pfaadt. Entering 2024, Pfaadt had only logged 96 innings over 18 starts. This workload increased by nearly twice the amount as he accumulated 181 innings over 32 starts. While he only posted a 4.71 ERA during his time on the mound, many numbers suggest a positive regression for Pfaadt in 2025. With an xERA and xFIP below 3.8, a whole run below his 2024 total, it appears he allowed runs at a marginally higher rate than expected, evidenced by his lower than average and “unlucky” 64.5 Left on Base Percentage, with 72% being roughly average league-wide.
In addition to a higher level of experience, Pfaadt benefited in 2024 from an upgraded sweeper, where he added a full mile per hour without sacrificing much of its shape to raise the offering to 84.8 mph, a full 2.5 above the average slider from right handers in 2024. He relied on it frequently (27%), only being used less often than his fastball (33%).
Player We Watched #3: RP Paul Sewald
The last Diamondback we watched this season was Paul Sewald. After his acquisition in 2023, it was clear the Diamondbacks had moved on from an aging Mark Melancon and had found their closer through the 2024 season. Well, life, and baseball in this case, is full of surprises.
Entering 2024, Sewald was poised to help the Diamondbacks defend their National League Title in the closer role just as he did the year before, where he came up huge through nearly the entirety of their improbable 2023 playoff run. These dreams were cut short though, as he missed the start of the season with an oblique injury.
After his return, however, Sewald went on a run, posting a minuscule 0.54 ERA through his first two months back. Unfortunately, this run came to a screeching halt as he was overworked, his velocity was down, and this success was deemed to be unsustainable. He lost the closer job to rookie flamethrower Justin Martinez, and his Diamondbacks career is all but over.
Offseason Outlook:
After leading baseball in runs in 2024, I believe the emphasis of this offseason should be placed on pitching. As it stands right now, the Diamondbacks have a rotation full of big-named veterans, most of which are bounce-back candidates, with a collection of younger arms among the likes of Drey Jameson and Blake Walston waiting in the wings to prove themselves at the Major League level should someone in the rotation go down for an extended period.
Given this context, I believe an emphasis should be placed on bullpen depth. The emergence of Justin Martinez helps shore up some of the backend questions of the unit, but finding the bridge between the starter and Martinez in close ball games is imperative to maintaining a competitive team in 2025.
Given this need and a relatively short budget, veterans Yimi García and Chris Martin could both be good fits to shore up the bullpen.
García, 34, is coming off of a solid season with the Mariners where he posted 0.4 fWAR, a 3.13 xERA and 3.63 xFIP in 39 innings. The decreased workload in 2024 was due to a setback suffered in a bullpen while rehabbing from an elbow injury, which does not immediately appear to need a UCL repairment procedure. This should allow García to be an affordable depth option for the D-Backs with the ability to slide into a setup role should he be needed there.
Martin, 39, is a similar potential acquisition. After a dominant season in 2023 where he posted a near sub-one ERA and 1.5 fWAR, a performance garnering him Cy Young votes, Martin followed that up with a more typical year to his standards. He was quietly dominant in a late inning role for the Red Sox, posting a 2.78 FIP, a dominant 27.8 K%, and a minuscule 1.7 BB%. If it weren’t for an inflamed elbow that cost him almost the entirety of July, Martin likely would have cleared his 51-inning total from the previous year.
Martin’s fastball mix is on the inspiring side, a four-seam and sinker which hover around 85 stuff+ with a cutter coming in at 101. If he had any offering that he could dial up in velocity similar to the likes of other lockdown relievers, he would be considered a closer. Luckily for him he can still carve up hitters while relying on his great splitter and elite command. Until his velocity, specifically for his splitter, tapers below the threshold that can still be effective when accurately located, Chris Martin will be a great get for a team like the D-Backs who are looking for a fairly-priced, small-name, reliable arm to steady the back-end of the bullpen.
Categories: 2024 Season Review, Articles, Season Analysis
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