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It’s that time of year again. The postseason is long gone, World Series celebrations have concluded, and free agent rumors have started to swirl. It’s also roster crunch season. Teams had up until the November 14th deadline to tender contracts to players, in addition to deciding which Rule 5 eligible prospects will be protected from selection in the draft on Wednesday (Dec. 6). 

Now that teams have decided on the makeup of their pre-free agent rush rosters and the Winter Meetings are rapidly approaching, it’s up to us to determine which unprotected prospects have the best chance of being taken in the Rule 5 Draft and providing an immediate impact with their new club. 

Before looking at the players hand-picked from this year’s crop, let’s dig deeper into the Rule 5 Draft. Different from its distant cousin, the more well known Rule 4 First-Year Player Draft, the Rule 5 Draft is a miniature version of the former which takes place every winter with the intention of giving MLB-ready prospects a chance to play at the big league level. To determine eligibility for this draft, a player must not currently be on their team’s 40-man roster, and one of two guidelines below must be followed:

These guidelines prevent teams with deeper farms from hoarding and preventing players in their system who deserve a chance to play at the big-league level from having this opportunity.

The caveat for teams selecting unprotected Rule 5 prospects is that they are immediately placed on the 26-man active roster (or injured list), and the team cannot option them to one their minor league affiliates without offering them back to the team they were initially selected from.

If the player is currently injured or incurs an injury during the season, they are allowed to be placed on the Injured Reserve but must spend 90 days on the active roster to relinquish their Rule 5 status. 

Once a player has spent at least 90 days on the active roster and has not been designated for assignment, they lose their Rule 5 status and can be optioned freely without risk by the team that selected them.

A Rule 5 player may be traded to another team, but their status remains unchanged. If the team that traded for this player eventually opts to designate them for assignment, they must first offer them back to the team that initially selected them.

Due to the commitment a prospective team faces when the Rule 5 Draft is upon them, they may opt to “pass” and forgo taking a player that year. Competitive teams with more depth on their active roster are more apt to going this route, while rebuilding and uncompetitive teams are more likely to take a flier on a prospect. Who knows, maybe the next Roberto Clemente (1954 Rule 5 Draft selection) is hiding amongst the ranks of players hoping for a team to take a chance on them!

Without further ado, let’s look at some of the most notable names for 2023 Rule 5 Draft.

BOS RHP Angel Bastardo

Future Tools (aggregated across Fangraphs and MLB.com):

After going unselected in last year’s Rule 5 Draft, 21-year-old right-hander Angel Bastardo was left unprotected again this year and looks primed to be one of the players with the best chances of being selected.

The on-paper results this year don’t do him justice (4.68 ERA and 4.16 FIP across A+/AA), but there’s a lot to like, particularly his arsenal. Bastardo possesses an average fastball velocity that sits at 93-97 mph and tops out at 98 mph, but his bread and butter really lies in his secondary pitches. 

His calling card is a plus changeup which he uses to steal strikes on the outer edge of the plate against right-handed hitters while keeping hitters off balance, forcing a ground ball rate of over 45%.

Additionally, his average slider with two-plane break and above-average hammer curve can be relied upon to keep hitters guessing. As a prospect, he currently has a starter’s profile due to his so-so fastball, large repertoire, and reliable secondary pitches. 

In 2023, Bastardo started all 24 games he played in, but if he was to be selected in the Rule 5 Draft, he would likely be stashed at the back of a bullpen as a long relief option. This would keep him out of situations that aren’t overly crucial while using his ability to throw for multiple innings.

Bastardo’s big issue, likely the reason the Red Sox left him unprotected, is his shaky command. Across A+ and AA in 2023, he exhibited a high 10.8% walk rate, which does not project well at the big-league level. If this trend continues, he may become a long-term middle-relief option, but even then, the odds of sustained success will be stacked against him. 

If a team selects Bastardo and is able to improve his command of the strike zone, he may be a solid relief option or even a backend starter at the major league level.

TEX RHP Justin Slaten

Future Tools (aggregated across Fangraphs and MLB.com):

Another Rule 5-eligible pitcher worthy of a selection is Texas Rangers farmhand Justin Slaten. A 6’4″, 220-lb. righty, Slaten is a power arm who easily had the best 2023 and possibly the loudest tools of the all the prospects outlined here.

He exhibits an electric fastball that may already be a 65-grade at this point, sitting 94-97 mph and topping out at 98 mph. His plus slider also is a big player for him as well in his arsenal. 

After the Rangers decided to transition Slaten to a full-time reliever role in 2023, he has excelled greatly and projects as a late-inning relief option long term. Starting the year in AA, Slaten cruised to a great 3.16 ERA, 3.95 FIP, and 2.82 xFIP. He was easily able to overpower his competition, striking out 37.4% of batters and allowing just a 7.9% walk rate.

After being promted to AAA for his efforts, Slaten added a 1.08 ERA and 4.55 FIP in 8.1 innings. He was still able to overpower hitters, albeit a little less, posting a 31.3% K-rate and allowing the free pass 12.5% of the time.

At 26 years old, it may be valid to say Slaten is becoming a journeyman minor-league arm, but his stuff certainly above average. At the very least, I can see Slaten becoming an average middle-relief option for an extended period of time. If Slaten finds continued success at the big-league level and refines his command in coming seasons, he could lock himself into a set-up or closer role long term. He is easily my favorite arm available in this year’s Rule 5 Draft.

SEA RHP Taylor Dollard

Future Tools (aggregated across Fangraphs and MLB.com):

Of the arms available to be selected in this year’s Rule 5 Draft, 24-year-old right-handed pitcher Taylor Dollard emerges as another great option. After throwing only eight innings in 2023 before undergoing season-ending shoulder surgery, Dollard was forced to vacate a great opportunity after earning himself a promotion to AAA in 2022. That season, he threw 144 innings while producing a stellar 2.25 ERA, 3.60 FIP, and 4.66 xFIP. 

While the injury clouds his outlook on the next year or so, Dollard’s arsenal may still give teams reason to believe he can be a backend starter or middle-relief option long-term.

Dollard primarily relies on a plus slider, which he commands excellently, allowing him to work off of it and pitch backwards to hitters. Additionally, he throws an average fastball that sits 90-93 mph, sometimes touching 94, while also mixing in a decent changeup and mediocre curveball. 

What makes Dollard stand out, however, is his excellent command. He posted 5.4% BB-rate in 2022, giving him a high floor and a great chance of taking on a long-reliever role with the possibility of being a backend rotation guy.

If a team decides to take a chance on him, they will likely have to place him on the IR to start the 2024 campaign, but there will be more than enough time for him to relinquish his Rule 5 eligibility and spend 90 days on the active roster before season’s end.

TBR OF Kameron Misner 

Future Tools (aggregated across Fangraphs and MLB.com):

We all know how great the Rays are at turning trash into treasure, particularly with pitchers, but also possess great minor league hitting depth in their consistently top-10-ranked farm system. This year, some of that depth may be leaking out, as 25-year-old outfielder Kameron Misner may be in play to get taken in the Rule 5 Draft. 

Misner exhibits an exciting power-speed combination as an outfielder, as he went on to rake 25 doubles and 21 homers, while stealing 21 bases in 130 games at AAA this year. Although he struck out a whopping 35.8% of the time, he was still an above-average hitter, generating a 107 wRC+.

Misner exhibits a high-risk hit tool, but his great power potential, average-to-above-average defense at the corners (preferably RF), and great speed makes him a high-ceiling platoon option against righties. Think Joey Gallo but with less power and more athleticism.

PHI OF Carlos De La Cruz 

Future Tools (aggregated across Fangraphs and MLB.com):

The player here with the highest ceiling – and lowest floor – is Phillies outfielder Carlos De La Cruz. After going undrafted as a high schooler in the 2017 MLB Draft, he was scooped up by the Phillies and quickly became a feel-good story among the prospect community. 

De La Cruz has a hulking frame, standing at 6’8″ and weighing 210 pounds. He is lean with more room to fill out but already has 70-grade raw power that could very well could blossom to 80-grade. De La Cruz’s power potential is elite, utilizing his plus-plus levers to turn pitches within the inner half of the plate around with ease. Those levers and frame, however, can also lead, understandably, to great swing and miss problems. Think Elly De La Cruz or Oneil Cruz (a lot of tall Cruz’s out there!) but as an outfielder. 

In 2023, De La Cruz posted 25 doubles and 24 homers in 129 games at AA, good for a promising 118 wRC+.  While this came with a rather high 27.5% K-rate, it’s important to note that he has been able to cut his strikeouts down across every level he has played at thus far, a good sign in his development.

The lanky outfielder already displays extremely simple mechanics at the plate, helpful in improving his timing and hit tool, but there may be more room to tinker in an effort to eliminate some swing and miss. 

On defense, De La Cruz has reportedly been playing primarily in center field, where he can take advantage of long strides to cover a lot of ground. He may not be a plus runner by default, but once he gets going, his speed can carry him across the expanse of the outfield at an above-average level. Long-term, he likely won’t be able to stick at center field assuming the bat plays, but he could likely find a home in left if his arm remains mediocre.

If De La Cruz can solidify his hit tool at the next level, he has a similar ceiling to Jordan Walker, while carrying a slightly bigger frame.

HOU OF Colin Barber 

Future Tools (aggregated across Fangraphs and MLB.com):

The last player being outlined here as a Rule 5 Draft prospect to keep an eye on is outfielder Colin Barber. Barber lacks any loud tools when he plays but has an indisputably solid hit tool.

In 79 games at AA this year, Barber racked up 16 doubles, 11 homers, and a .244/.358/.433 slash line, good for an 111 wRC+. While the batting average might not be as high as you would imagine for a hit-first prospect, Barber’s excellent 14% walk-rate carries the brunt of that grade, along with his smooth and balanced stroke from the left side of the plate. 

While this profile lacks any major upside, it is held up with a reasonably high floor. Due to the balance in most of his tools, Barber seems destined for left field long-term if given the opportunity. I would be surprised if he isn’t at least offered that chance, as lefties that can hit usually find a way to make it into the lineup in a platoon or pinch hitting role.

A team with poor outfield depth would be the best fit in Barber’s case, as the young bat projects to be an average big leaguer at the position long-term. Who knows, he could even have a Michael Brantley-type ceiling.

Categories: MLB Draft

Tags: Rule 5 Draft