Check out my 2023 Season Preview Article for the New York Yankees here.

Image: ESPN

2023 Record: 82-80 (.506 win%, 4th in Division)

2023 Payroll: $173,583,333 (3rd)

2023 Lineup:

1. C Kyle Higashioka, .236 AVG/.274 OBP/.413 SLG, 1.7 fWAR

2. 1B Anthony Rizzo, .244 AVG/.328 OBP/.378 SLG, 0.9 fWAR

3. 2B Gleyber Torres, .273 AVG/.347 OBP/.453 SLG, 3.2 fWAR

4. SS Anthony Volpe, .209 AVG/.289 OBP/.383 SLG, 1.9 fWAR

5. 3B DJ LeMahieu, .243 AVG/.327 OBP/.390 SLG, 1.1 fWAR

6. LF Oswaldo Cabrera, .211 AVG/.275 OBP/.365 SLG, -0.6 fWAR

7. CF Harrison Bader, .240 AVG/.278 OBP/.365 SLG, 1.3 fWAR

8. RF Aaron Judge, .267 AVG/.406 OBP/.613 SLG, 5.3 fWAR

9. DH Giancarlo Stanton, .191 AVG/.275 OBP/.420 SLG, -0.8 fWAR

10. UT Isiah Kiner-Falefa, .242 AVG/.306 OBP/.340 SLG, 0.2 fWAR

2023 Rotation:

1. Gerrit Cole, 209.0 IP/2.63 ERA/0.99 WHIP, 5.2 fWAR

2. Clarke Schmidt, 159.0 IP/4.64 ERA/1.35 WHIP, 1.8 fWAR

3. Domingo Germán, 108.2 IP/4.56 ERA/1.08 WHIP, 0.9 fWAR

4. Luis Severino, 89.1 IP/6.65 ERA/1.65 WHIP, -0.6 fWAR

5. Carlos Rodón, 64.1 IP/6.85 ERA/1.47 WHIP, -0.2 fWAR

2023 Top 4 Relievers:

1. Clay Holmes, 63.0 IP/2.86 ERA/1.18 WHIP, 1.5 fWAR

2. Wandy Peralta, 54.0 IP/2.83 ERA/1.22 WHIP, -0.5 fWAR

3. Albert Abreu, 59.0 IP/4.73 ERA/1.48 WHIP, -0.4 fWAR

4. Ron Marinaccio, 47.1 IP/3.99 ERA/1.31 WHIP, -0.2 fWAR

Regular Season Recap:

Going into the end of July, the Yankees were within single digits of the AL East division lead and within a handful of games of the AL Wild Card. While the season was less than remarkable, they were a solid August and September from making the postseason. On August 12th, the Yankees were 60-57. Ten days later, they had lost nine straight, dropping down to 60-65. The nine-game losing streak was their worst skid since 1982. All hope for a successful season was lost. 

The Yankees turned into the Angels this season, as their two stars carried the team, with very little production from the rest of the team. An injury-riddled Aaron Judge, who only played 106 games, accumulated 5.3 fWAR, and Cy Young favorite Gerrit Cole put up a 5.2 fWAR season. Gleyber Torres’ 3.2 and Michael King’s 2.2 fWAR, respectively, were the only two other players to have above a two-win season for the Yankees. All of this to say, the supporting cast of the Yankees were pretty awful relative to expectations.

The pitching staff that was meant to be the most formidable in baseball regressed and battled injuries all season. Carlos Rodón and Nestor Cortes made 14 and 12 starts, respectively, and neither were impressive in their outings. Rodón will be discussed in further details in the “Player We Watched Section.” Nestor Cortes was not as bad, but he only played one game from June to October, dealing with a left rotator cuff strain. 

Adding onto the starting pitching disappointments, Luis Severino might have been the worst pitcher in baseball with a 6.65 ERA in 18 starts. The only brightside is he is a free agent in the offseason, so the Yankees can easily cut ties with Severino if they want. 

Domingo Germán might have had the weirdest seasons by a pitcher in recent memory. On June 28th, he threw the 24th perfect game in MLB history against the lowly Oakland Athletics, followed by an abundance of criticism for his off-the-field problematic character. He did not prove the haters wrong as only a month later he was placed on the restricted list to attend inpatient treatment for alcohol abuse. 

The decision came after Germán was belligerently drunk and apparently caused a fight in the Yankees clubhouse. Now, there is definitely an uncertainty whether Germán will ever pitch again in an MLB uniform.

Clarke Schmidt and Jhony Brito showed flashes of light at points this season. In May and June, Schmidt posted a 3.52 and 3.04 ERA respectively. The rest of the year, Schmidt gave up over five runs per game. Brito, similar to young Yankees pitching prospects before him Deivi García and Luis Gil, looked incredible in his first two starts, allowing only one run in ten innings pitched. 

He came back to reality, being tagged for seven runs before finishing the first against the Twins in his third outing. The rest of the season he was used as a spot starter or long reliever and performed decently. Both Schmidt and Brito will have an opportunity to be a part of the backend of the starting rotation.

In the bullpen, once again was not the problem for the New York Yankees. Clay Holmes was once again shut down after some rough patches. Wandy Peralta, Ian Hamltion, Nick Ramirez, and Tommy Kahnle all pitched to sub-three ERAs in around 50 innings each. While Albert Abreu did not continue his dominance from last year, there was no shortage of arms coming up from AAA to eat innings. 

The offense was abysmal and not near the high expectations. As a team, they ranked in the bottom half in almost all offensive statistics. With a .701 OPS, the Yankees ranked seventh worst, resulting in the sixth worst run scored total. Although batting average’s value has been diminished in the Moneyball era, the Yankees ranked second to last with a .227 average, finishing above only the 50-win Athletics. 

Even though the Yankees are filled with sluggers to counteract this, they only finished ninth-highest in home runs with 219. While the pitching was decent, the Yankees need their lineup to be top five, or at least top ten, if they are going to be competitive. 

Only Aaron Judge and Gleyber Torres had an above average OPS+. Although he only played 106 games due to a nagging toe injury, Judge was fantastic when on the field, accruing 5.3 fWAR or 16th best in MLB. Gleyber Torres once again was a solid bat while playing an average defense. With one more year left on the contract, Torres’ future with the Yankees is in question.

Everyone else on the Yankees roster was disappointing on the offensive front. The expected middle of the order sluggers of Anthony Rizzo and Giancarlo Stanton both had their worst seasons in their long tenures. In late May, Rizzo suffered a concussion that went undiagnosed for months. In June and July, Rizzo was atrocious with a sub .200 batting average and a sub .500 OPS, hitting a single homerun in almost 200 plate appearances. Finally in August, he was shut down, not playing another game for the season. 

Giancarlo Stanton was not much better, unfortunately. Yet again, Stanton missed substantial time due to lower body injury. Evident in his sloth-like baserunning, Stanton’s mammoth body is breaking down rapidly, and the Yankees still owe him at least another $128 million over the next four years. Although peak Stanton is probably the most formidable hitter in baseball, he was far from that form in 2023 and might not be for the foreseeable future.

Former MVP, Josh Donaldson had a weird season. In 33 games as a Yankee, he had only fifteen hits but ten of them were home runs. While battling injuries, the Yankees elongated his rehab and eventually cut ties with him in August. Donaldson’s tenure as a Yankees was one to forget on both sides. Although Cashman was insistent on Donaldson’s ability, he would love to have Gio Urshela back, especially considering their price tags.

In addition to JD, the Yankees cut ties with Aaron Hicks and Harrison Bader this season. While he was one of the longest tenured Yankees, Aaron Hicks showed once again he was a liability at the plate without providing unbelievable defensive value. Of course, Hicks filled in well for 65 games for the division winning Orioles. Hicks is yet another example of a player who flourished immediately after leaving the negativity of the New York media and fans. 

Throughout his career, Bader has been one of the best defensive outfielder with a subpar glove. After his heroics last postseason, the expectations for Harrison Bader’s bat were high in his first full season as a Yankee. In 2023, Bader’s bat was worse than his career average but not much worse. By the end of August, Bader was placed on waivers to make room for young prospects to play since he was set to be a free agent in the winter. 

The transaction led to an interesting interaction where Bader was confused about the waiver process. Turns out MLB players are just like us! After landing on the Reds, Bader barely missed out on the playoffs. Watching Jordan Montgomery thrive in the playoffs and Harrison Bader get cut left a sour taste in Yankee fans’ mouths.

After an incredible 2020 season, the Yankees inked DJ LeMahieu for the next six years. Since his MVP finalist season, LeMahieu’s production has slowly ticked down each of the last three years. While he still provides utility in the field at three infield positions, he is no longer the middle of the lineup presence he once was for the Yankees. Even though 45 million dollars over the next three years is not substantial, the Yankees need more offensive production from DJ to solidify their lineup.

Last season, management decided to completely punt on offense at the catcher position, favoring a good defender who can frame well, and it could not have gone better as Jose Trevino won the Platinum Glove. This year, Trevino’s wrist injury ended his season in late July, only playing 55 games. 

Kyle Higashioka got the majority of the playing time at catcher, and both him and Trevino ranked top ten in catcher framing runs saved. In total, the Yankees’ catching core saved them 14 runs with framing alone. Behind the duo, Ben Rortvedt was unimpressive as the backup catcher amidst injuries. 

While the Yankees need more lefty hitting, Rortvedt’s sub .500 OPS is not fixing the problem. With these three catchers, plus top prospect Austin Wells, the Yankees will have to decide which two catchers make the Opening Day roster.

After brief stints in 2022, Yankee fans were excited about the two young infield prospects Oswald(o)s. While originally a shortstop, Oswaldo Cabrera quickly took the utility role for the Yankees, playing all positions but pitcher and catcher in 2023. Since there are glaring holes in the outfield, Cabrera played 92 of his 115 games in the outfield.

In his first full season, Cabrera did not cease the opportunity given to him, playing average defense while looking lost at the plate. His only OAA positive position was third base, and he couldn’t hit righties or lefties well. While he is still extremely young, he did not cement himself onto the 2024 roster. 

After Anthony Volpe won the starting shortstop job, Oswald Peraza was optioned to AAA to start the season. Coming up and down all year, Peraza did not get consistent MLB playing time until late August. In 52 games, Peraza showed that his short hot streak at the plate in 2022 was not the standard. 

The Yankees once again tanked a top prospect’s value by not trading them before reaching the big leagues and not giving them enough playing time to develop. While there is still time for Peraza, there must be consensus on how he will be deployed.

For the second straight year the Yankees were resistant to signing a lefty outfielder, so instead the Yankees tried to squeeze every ounce of value out of AAAA players, including Jake Bauers, Willie Calhoun, Billy McKinney, and Franchy Cordero. 

While each showed flashes in short spurts, none of the four provided a long term solution. Since all of these players are cheap, one or more of them could be features of next year’s bench, but they should not get as significant time as they did this year. 

In September when the season was out of hand, the Yankees called up top prospects Jasson Domínguez, Everson Pereira, and Austin Wells. Jasson Domínguez is one of the most hyped Yankees prospects in the last decade. At age sixteen, he was receiving comparisons to Mike Trout and Mickey Mantle. If that does put pressure on a young man, I’m not sure what would. 

In an eight game preview, Domínguez absolutely mashed, hitting four home runs and accumulating eight hits. Unfortunately, the Yankees’ dreams of their future center field was too good to be true as Domínguez needs Tommy John surgery. Missing a large portion of the 2024 season, the Martian hype will have to wait. 

In nineteen games at catcher, Austin Wells hit about league average and did not show any clear weaknesses on the defensive side. Joining an already crowded catcher’s depth chart, it will be interesting to watch how much the Yankees play Wells next year in the bigs. 

Not all three September call ups were going to exceed expectations, so we saw Pereira outmatched in his limited time as the Yankees left fielder, as he almost struck out 40 percent of the time. When he did make contact, Pereria hit the ball pretty hard, but the Yankees will need to improve his contact for him to be a factor. 

M-SABR Predicted Record (95-67) vs. Actual (82-80):

Along with the White Sox, Mets, Cardinals, Padres, and Guardians, the Yankees’ prediction was one of M-SABR’s most overconfident pre-season picks. While some of those teams performed more than twenty games under their expectation, the Yankees still won thirteen games fewer than anticipated.

The goal for the Yankees was to beat the Astros in the playoffs and win a World Series, and they came nowhere close to this goal. The Yankees never put things together. Most of the season they were waiting for the return of Aaron Judge. While Judge’s return added one awesome bat to the lineup, it did not magically fix all of their problems. If they want to bounce back to championship hopefuls, the Yankees need to make some structural changes that haven’t been seen in years.

Surprise of the Season:

Michael King was electric once again in 2023. In 2022, the Yankees bullpen took a massive hit when fireman Michael King ended his season with elbow surgery. While there was concern he would not be the same, he once again showed why he is one of the Yankees most valuable assets. In the beginning of the year, he often threw multiple innings out of the bullpen, similar to previous years. 

At the end of the year, the Yankees started him for nine games. In those nine games as a starter, he gave up one or fewer runs in the first eight of nine of those starts, leading to a 1.88 ERA as a starter. The only point of concern is King threw 104.2 innings this year, more than double his two previous years. If King becomes a starter, he is going to be asked for much more length than 100 innings.

Players We Watched: 

Player We Watched #1: Carlos Rodón 

Watching Carlos Rodón this year was not fun for Yankees fans. He gave up an ERA of 6.85, and his underlying statistics were not promising. His strikeouts were down, his walks were up, and he gave up over two home runs per nine innings. 

There were only a few starts where he actually looked like what the Yankees paid for. While there was excitement in the offseason for the newly signed southpaw, there must be drastic change for Rodón in 2024.

Player We Watched #2: Anthony Volpe

It is hard to judge Anthony Volpe’s season. Even the two major baseball websites cannot agree on Volpe’s WAR, with FanGraphs claiming he was a 1.9 win player and Baseball Reference stating he was worth 3.2 wins. While there is some understood error bar in the WAR calculation, no other player on the Yankees had over a one-WAR difference. 

At the plate, Volpe was disappointing in most aspects. As a speedy player, he should be getting on base at a higher rate than 0.283. Interestingly, he showed a lot of pop, hitting 21 home runs. On the basepath, he was successful on over 80 percent of his stolen base attempts, racking up 24 swipes. 

On defense, there is much controversy about his ability. He won the Gold Glove over Bobby Witt Jr., Wander Franco, and Javier Báez. The analytical community’s favorite defensive statistic, OAA, suggested he was only slightly above average at one out above average. Defensive Runs Saved, DRS, suggested he was worth over fifteen runs, only trailing Wander Franco. 

Regardless of how he grades out, Boone loves his defense and will continue to play him as the everyday shortstop for the foreseeable future. To have a successful 2024, Volpe will need to improve his contact and get on base more, so he can be even more of a disruptor on the basepath.

Player We Watched #3: Ron Marinaccio

Ron Marinaccio fell back to Earth in 2023. Last year he only gave up two home runs in 44 innings in comparison to six this year in an almost identical number of innings thrown. Expectations will have to be tempered for Marinaccio as an end of the bullpen dude for the Yankees in 2024.

Offseason Outlook:

The Yankees have an interesting offseason ahead of them. They find themselves at an unusual crossroads between retooling and shoving the chips in for a championship. Prior to last season, they had made the postseason six straight years, reaching the ALCS in three of those years. 

Nonetheless, it has been fourteen years since the Yankees have even reached the World Series. Last season almost everyone under performed. Before deciding an offseason plan, they must ask themselves whether they think the likes of Giancarlo Stanton, DJ LeMahieu, Anthony Rizzo, Carlos Rodón, and Nestor Cortes will bounce back to peak form despite aging. 

Given the Yankees put extreme faith into Josh Donaldson and other aging stars in the past year, the Yankees will try to push for another competitor this offseason.

The hottest name in the Yankees offseason rumor mill is Yoshinobu Yamamoto. For those who are not familiar with international baseball, Yamamoto is only 25 years old, but he is probably the best pitcher to make the transition to MLB.

In seven seasons, he only allowed a 1.82 ERA. He has won the last three Sawamura Awards (Japan’s equivalent of the Cy Young Award). Brian Cashman has already shown his hand, stating he wants to make Yamamoto a Yankee, regardless of the price. Yamamoto would solidify last year’s shaky starting rotation behind Gerrit Cole.

In addition to Yamamoto, expect the Yankees to sign a back end of the rotation pitcher. With only five MLB experienced pitchers with Germán and Severino off the team, the Yankees will like to bring in at least seven starters into Spring Training to have appropriate depth. This could come in the form of a one-year prove it deal for Frankie Montas or aged veterans, such as Carlos Carrasco, Lance Lynn, or Wade Miley. 

The Yankees infield is likely remaining the same. With DJ LeMahieu, Anthony Volpe, Gleyber Torres, and Anthony Rizzo from third to first, there is not much wiggle room for moves. Although there has been some discussion about a Gleyber Torres trade, his value with only one year remaining is likely not enough for the Yankees to move him. Expect this group to include Oswald Peraza, over Isiah Kiner-Falefa, on the bench to make a five man rotation. 

Behind the plate, the Yankees likely won’t make any external moves, but they do have some internal decisions. With Kyle Higashioka and Jose Trevino on the roster and Austin Wells and Ben Rortvedt ready to see MLB playing time, the Yankees can only really afford to keep three of them. Since Jose Trevino is a defensive wizard and the controllability of Wells and Rortvedt, Higgy might be the odd man out. Higashioka is the longest tenured Yankee, and he has been with the team since they drafted him in 2008.

The largest question is who the Yankees will add in the outfield. With Jasson Domínguez sidelined until at least June, Aaron Judge is the only starting outfielder penned into the starting lineup. Currently, the Yankees have Jake Bauers, Estevan Florial, and Oswaldo Cabrera to fill in at the other two spots, so they need to upgrade in center and left field. 

The biggest question is whether the Yankees will splash to get Juan Soto or Cody Bellinger. Since Soto only has one more year left and the price tag would still be tremendous, the Yankees will likely pass on him again. Bellinger, on the other hand, only costs money, which the Yankees have. Even though Brian Cashman would love to have a power lefty bat in the middle of the order, this decision comes down to whether Hal Steinbrenner wants to go above and beyond with his spending. 

If they do not go after the top two guys, expect older veterans such David Peralta and Kevin Kiermaier to be stop gaps until Domínguez returns. 

In the bullpen, the Yankees probably will not go after top guys Josh Hader or Liam Hendriks but lesser pieces. They will likely bring back Wandy Peralta but not Keynan Middleton. Also, in classic Brian Cashman, he will probably get some valuable arm in a trade.

What to Pay Attention to in the Future:

In 2022 and 2023, the Yankees promoted a lot of young prospects, especially on the hitting side. While Volpe’s starting position is fairly cemented, Oswaldo Cabrera, Oswald Peraza, Austin Wells, Ben Rortvedt, Everson Pereira and possibly Jasson Domínguez will be fighting for playing time in 2024. 

While it is unknown how the Yankees’ roster will shape out on the fringes, Boone and the front office will have a difficult time deciding how to manage these young players. In an ideal world, they could all get playing time to develop at the major league level, but this will not happen if/when the Yankees try to compete next year.

 The 2024 Yankees are at a potential turning point and the usage of the rookies will be emblematic of the direction of the franchise.

Categories: 2023 Season Review, Articles, Season Analysis

Tags: 2023 Season Review, New York Yankees