Check out my 2023 Season Preview Article for the Dodgers here.
Image: (Ross D. Franklin / Associated Press)
2023 Record: 100-62 (.617 win%, 1st in Division)
2023 Payroll: $240,278,296 (6th)
2023 Lineup:
1. RF Mookie Betts, .307 AVG/.408 OBP/.579 SLG, 8.3 fWAR
2. 1B Freddie Freeman, .331 AVG/.410 OBP/.567 SLG, 7.9 fWAR
3. C Will Smith, .261 AVG/.359 OBP/.438 SLG, 4.4 fWAR
4. 3B Max Muncy, .212 AVG/.333 OBP/.475 SLG, 2.9 fWAR
5. DH J.D. Martinez, .271 AVG/.321 OBP/.572 SLG, 2.2 fWAR
6. LF David Peralta, .259 AVG/.294 OBP/.381 SLG, 0.1 fWAR
7. 2B Miguel Vargas, .195 AVG/.305 OBP/.367 SLG, 0.1 fWAR
8. CF James Outman, .248 AVG/.353 OBP/.437 SLG, 4.4 fWAR
9. SS Miguel Rojas, .236 AVG/.290 OBP/.322 SLG, 0.6 fWAR
10. OF Jason Heyward, .269 AVG/.340 OBP/.473 SLG, 2.2 fWAR
2023 Rotation:
1. Clayton Kershaw, 131.2 IP/2.46 ERA/1.06 WHIP, 2.3 fWAR
2. Bobby Miller, 124.1 IP/3.76 ERA/1.10 WHIP, 2.8 fWAR
3. Julio Urias, 117.1 IP/4.60 ERA/1.16 WHIP, 1.2 fWAR
4. Tony Gonsolin, 103.0 IP/4.98 ERA/1.22 WHIP, 0.3 fWAR
5. Michael Grove, 69.0 IP/6.13 ERA/1.48 WHIP, 0.8 fWAR
2023 Top 4 Relievers:
1. Evan Phillips, 61.1 IP/2.05 ERA/0.83 WHIP, 1.2 fWAR
2. Brusdar Graterol, 67.1 IP/1.20 ERA/0.97 WHIP, 1.4 fWAR
3. Caleb Ferguson, 60.1 IP/3.43 ERA/1.44 WHIP, 1.3 fWAR
4. Alex Vesia, 49.2 IP/4.35 ERA/1.39 WHIP, 0.7 fWAR
Regular Season Recap:
The regular season included a plethora of highs and lows for Los Angeles. Some young players had breakout performances while some veterans had some resurgences. There were also a collection of players who didn’t live up to expectations. All in all, the positives trumped the negatives, as the Dodgers scratched their way to their fifth 100-win season in the past seven years.
The rotation in Los Angeles had many more question marks than many previous renditions of the squad. In a year that featured a multitude of injuries to the pitching staff, the Dodgers’ most reliable starting pitcher was actually Clayton Kershaw. Despite his fastball having plummeted in velocity in recent years, Kersh was stellar again in 2023 posting a 2.46 ERA in 24 starts, his most since 2019.
Second behind Kershaw in innings pitched for Los Angeles was standout rookie Bobby Miller. Beginning the season as the 24th best prospect in baseball, Miller made his Major League debut in late May and didn’t look back. Finishing the season with a 3.45 xERA and 119 strikeouts in 124.1 innings, Miller made a fantastic impression on the organization and Dodgers’ fanbase.
Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May were two players expected to make large contributions on the mound for Los Angeles in 2023, but had both their seasons cut short due to injuries. Gonsolin’s season was the worst of his career, allowing almost twice as many earned runs as he had in any previous season. He was in the bottom quarter of the league in a number of statistics, including walk rate, strikeout rate, and barrel rate.
May, on the other hand, was in the midst of establishing himself as one of the best hitters in baseball before injuring his flexor tendon. Before hitting the shelf, his ERA+ and WHIP stood at 167 and 0.938, respectively, despite posting a career low in strikeout rate.
Slotting in fifth in innings pitched for the Dodgers was Michael Grove. Grove served as the fifth starter for much of the season due to various injuries to the rotation and wasn’t very impressive. Grove produced a 6.75 ERA across twelve starts before finishing the season in the bullpen.
Perhaps a bigger disappointment than Grove was free agent signee Noah Syndergaard. Syndergaard came to Los Angeles expecting to regain some of the velocity that made him so intimidating on the mound in previous years. However, he struggled to attain this and was traded to the Guardians at the deadline, ending his Dodgers tenure with a 61 ERA+ and 5.52 FIP.
On the contrary to Syndergaard, Lance Lynn was acquired from the White Sox at the deadline and served as yet another reformation project for Los Angeles. After a disastrous first half with Chicago, Lynn posted a comparatively-impressive 4.36 ERA with the Dodgers. However, he continued to struggle keeping the ball in the park, as his league-leading home run rate wound up costing the Dodgers down the stretch.
Emmet Sheehan was a surprise bright spot for Los Angeles in 2023. After being called up straight from AA, Sheehan pitched eight full innings before allowing his first hit in the major leagues. For a guy who initially wasn’t expected to make an impact at all, Sheehan was largely impressive outside of a rough July, finishing with a 1.193 WHIP and 64 strikeouts in 60.1 innings.
Ryan Pepiot was another Dodger rookie worth mentioning. After spending the majority of the season struggling with injuries, Pepiot balled out during the home stretch for Los Angeles. Across eight appearances, one of which a perfect game bid lost in the seventh inning, Pepiot recorded a 2.14 ERA and 0.762 WHIP.
The last of the notable starting pitchers used in Los Angeles in 2023 was, predictably, a rookie, Gavin Stone. After a Spring Training in which Stone was nearly unhittable, he struggled mightily during the regular season. In 31 innings for the Dodgers, he allowed a 13.4 hits per nine, the highest figure of any season at any level during both his collegiate and professional careers.
Moving to the bullpen, Evan Phillips served as the “closer” for Los Angeles, leading the team in saves and games finished. Building off a breakout 2022 campaign, he was stellar once again this season, finishing with a 212 ERA+.
Brusdar Graterol was even more impressive for the Dodgers, as he turned in definitively the best season of his career. His 1.20 ERA led all Major League pitchers with a minimum of 60 innings pitched.
The best lefty out of the pen for Los Angeles was Caleb Ferguson. Ferguson, who occasionally served as an opener for this Dodger ballclub, registered a 1.3 fWAR and 3.34 FIP. Interestingly enough, Ferguson had reverse splits in 2023, as left-handed hitters fared better against him than right-handed hitters.
Alex Vesia struggled to an extent, unable to replicate his elite 2022 season. His 4.35 ERA, 1.389 WHIP, and 9.4 H/9 were all career worsts as a Dodger. However, according to ERA+ he was still a slightly above average pitcher.
Like Vesia, Yency Almonte also could not repeat the success of the previous season. In 49 appearances, he allowed 43 hits, 24 walks, and 27 earned runs. His rate statistics were almost double what they had been in 2022.
Los Angeles raised some eyebrows when they signed Shelby Miller to a major league contract over the offseason. Having not recorded an ERA under 4 since 2015, Miller was fantastic for the Dodgers. His 1.71 mark was the best out of any of the team’s relievers not named Brusdar Graterol.
Phil Bickford struggled mightily once again for Los Angeles in 2023. After two and a half seasons with an ERA+ under 100 out of the bullpen, the Dodgers shipped him off to the Mets at the deadline for cash.
One of the bigger surprises of the season for this team was Ryan Brasier. Picked up after being released by the Red Sox, he had a complete turnaround for the Dodgers, going from a 7.29 ERA in Boston to a 0.70 mark in Los Angeles.
Other notable names out of the bullpen were Ryan Yarbrough, Victor Gonzalez, and Justin Bruihl, who all had mediocre seasons. Overall, the bullpen took a step down in 2023, but still featured great performances from some big names and its fair share of surprise standouts as well.
Offensively, Will Smith led the way behind the dish, finally earning his first All-Star nod. Despite this, Smith actually subtly had his worst season thus far, with a career low 0.797 OPS. Some of this may be attributed to injury, as Smith dealt with concussion issues and scares throughout the season.
Smith’s backup, Austin Barnes, was just that. A backup. Seeing his offensive performance reach unbearable lows and his arm unable to keep up with the league-wide increase in base stealing, the Dodgers couldn’t help but keep him off the field as much as possible.
Freddie Freeman picked up right where he left off in 2022, with another MVP-caliber season. Freeman accumulated a whopping 7.9 fWAR, driving in 102 runs on 29 home runs and a league-leading 59 doubles. His 163 wRC+ ranked third in the National League and sixth amongst all qualified Major League hitters.
Miguel Vargas played the majority of games at second base for Los Angeles, having been given the job to start the season. However, Vargas struggled mightily down the stretch, batting under .200 during his time in the majors. He was demoted to AAA in July and his play improved from there, but wasn’t given another opportunity with the Dodgers.
The everyday third baseman for this ballclub was Max Muncy. Muncy, whose 2022 had a multitude of ups and downs, was much more consistent this past season. His 36 home runs and 105 runs batted in were both career highs, while his defense at the hot corner continued to be sub-par.
Due to an early season-ending injury to Gavin Lux, Miguel Rojas was thrusted into the starting shortstop role for Los Angeles. Not expected to do much offensively, his 6 outs above average were in the 91st percentile, all while playing a premium position. Rojas also served in a leadership role for the Dodgers, mentoring many of the rookies on the team.
The anchor of the outfield (and sometimes infield) was superstar Mookie Betts. If it weren’t for Ronald Acuna Jr.’s record breaking season, Betts would most likely have added another MVP award to his resume. His 8.3 fWAR led all of Major League Baseball and his ability to play shortstop and second base resulted in a Gold Glove nomination as a utility player in addition to right field.
James Outman was the main center fielder for Los Angeles. Outman had quite the season, starting off April on an absolute tear before a long cold streak, heating back up during the final stretch. He finished with a .248/.353/.437 slashline and a third place finish in National League Rookie of the Year voting, all while playing solid defense.
David Peralta was the usual left fielder for the Dodgers, playing in a platoon against right-handed pitching. He underperformed in this role, recording a .675 OPS against righties and a 81 OPS+ overall.
On the contrary to Peralta, Jason Heyward had a surprise redemption year with Los Angeles, providing the Dodgers with value both offensively and defensively. His 121 wRC+ in 2023 was his first mark above 100 in a full season since 2015 with the Cardinals. Heyward, like Rojas, also enjoyed his veteran leadership role, and stated that he would like to remain in Los Angeles in 2024 if they choose to re-sign him.
Chris Taylor served as a utility player once again, as well as a platoon against left-handed pitching. He was around league average offensively overall, but had a .478 slugging percentage against lefties, playing his role well.
Kike Hernandez was acquired from the Red Sox at the trade deadline after a dreadful level of production over the first half of the season. Hernandez played much better with Los Angeles than he did with Boston, but was still a below average hitter.
In a similar boat was Amed Rosario, who the Dodgers picked up from the Guardians at the deadline. Rosario, like Hernandez, was brought in to add right-handed depth as well as defensive versatility. His performance in Los Angeles was nothing to write home about, as his 89+ OPS was a continuation of the struggles he was having in Cleveland.
Trayce Thompson played a forgetful 36 games for Los Angeles before suffering an oblique strain. He was later shipped off to Chicago in the Lance Lynn trade, ending the year with a .163/.285/.294 slashline for the two teams combined.
Michael Busch had an intriguing year for this Dodgers organization. After tearing up AAA to begin the season, the rookie was called up on multiple different occasions and given opportunities to establish a role at the Major League level. However, Busch disappointed with Los Angeles, recording a 45 OPS+ in 81 plate appearances.
Another rookie who received an opportunity to produce was Jonny DeLuca. DeLuca actually produced at a league average level in 2023, but spent the majority of the season in the minor leagues so he could receive consistent playing time.
The Dodgers also received minor contributions from Kolten Wong, Yonny Hernandez, Austin Wynns, Luke Williams, and Jake Marisnick over the course of the season. Overall, this team had its fair share of both disappointing underperformers and surprising overperformers, but talent across the board led to yet another division title.
M-SABR Predicted Record (96-66) vs. Actual (100-62):
In my preview for this 2023 Dodger team, I pointed out that they began the season with more question marks than they’ve ever had with their current regime. I also warned of the rise of the San Diego Padres after their superstar acquisitions. Despite these, I noted that Los Angeles seems to always find a way to get the best of its players, and that it would be more than reasonable for this team to win the division with ease once again.
With the exception of the Padres threat, it sure seems like I hit the nail on the head with this one. At the time, I felt that granting the 2023 Dodgers 96 wins was a little much given their roster construction, but it turns out that I was underestimating them. Much like last season, Andrew Friedman and company were able to extract meaningful production out of otherwise irrelevant players such as Jason Heyward and Ryan Brasier. This led to another runaway NL West title, as the regular season Dodger freight train kept rolling.
Playoff Recap:
This section of the article should be as brief as the Dodgers’ playoff appearance was. Another year, another disappointing early exit. Which stat do we begin with? Is it the combined 1-for-21 from Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman in the NLDS? Or is it the 13 runs in 4.2 innings allowed by starting pitchers Clayton Kershaw, Bobby Miller, and Lance Lynn? Wherever you point the finger, it doesn’t change the fact that this franchise vastly underperformed when it mattered once again.
The series against the Diamondbacks exposed the Dodgers’ every flaw and every reason why they haven’t been able to get it done in the postseason in recent years. The rotation is too thin and the bullpen is overworked. The lineup is too top-heavy and producing runs becomes impossible when the superstars get cold. The sense of urgency and passion for winning just isn’t there.
This team has become stale and boring. The Dodgers won’t be a perennial contender forever, and you have to start wondering if the window is beginning to close for Los Angeles to win that second ring and cement their dynasty status.
Surprise of the Season:
The surprise of the season for the Dodgers had to have been the re-emergence of Jason Heyward. Heyward signed a minor league contract with Los Angeles during the 2022 offseason after a disappointing seven-year stint with the Cubs.
Outside of the shortened 2020 season, Heyward never posted an OPS above .772 with Chicago, finishing with an 88 wRC+ across the entire tenure. However, he was able to provide great defensive value, accumulating 48 defensive runs saved and 30 outs above average in right field.
After tweaking his swing in the offseason, Heyward came into spring camp with the Dodgers and impressed enough to earn a spot on the Opening Day roster as a fifth outfielder. From there, he earned more and more playing time as he continued to produce offensively, specifically against right-handed pitching.
By season’s end, Heyward had accumulated 2.2 fWAR, recording a 121 wRC+ across 377 plate appearances. Unlocking a second wind of his career, Heyward not only became a valuable asset for Los Angeles in 2023, but he set himself up to become an attractive free agent in the upcoming off-season as well.
Players We Watched:
For all the great breakout and comeback player stories the Dodgers had during the 2023 season, they had their fair share of disappointments as well. In our season preview, we chose three players to watch for Los Angeles in 2023, and all three were let downs in some way. In fact, by the time playoffs came around, all three players we watched were no longer on the active roster.
Julio Urias:
Not only did Urias underperform on the field, but, due to his off-field behavior, he may never throw a baseball for a Major League team again. His 4.60 ERA, 4.69 FIP, and 1.159 WHIP were all the worst of his career since 2017, but none of that matters at this point.
Urias was placed on administrative leave after his second violation of Major League Baseball’s domestic violence policy and will likely receive a punishment similar to that of former Dodger Trevor Bauer.
He had been a fan favorite since making his debut for Los Angeles in 2016, even recording the final outs of the 2020 World Series. Needless to say, Dodger fans looked up to Urias and celebrated him with open arms, and it’s absolutely devastating and disappointing that this is the person he turned out to be.
Miguel Vargas:
Vargas was one of the headline names of the parade of top prospects the Dodgers had coming into the season. Los Angeles proclaimed him the starting second baseman to begin the season with the expectation that he would rake. This was not the case, however, as Vargas struggled to get it going with the Dodgers.
In 81 games with Los Angeles, he recorded an 85 wRC+, .295 wOBA, and .224 BABIP. His -7 outs above average were also in the 7th percentile of the league, despite work over the offseason and spring training to improve his defense.
Vargas was demoted in early July with hopes that he could regain some confidence in his offensive ability and, to an extent, he did, recording 25 extra base hits and a .886 OPS in AAA. Despite this, Vargas did not get the call back to the majors, as he was significantly outplayed in his time in AAA by fellow prospect Michael Busch, who the Dodgers elected to promote instead. This will surely not be the last we’ve seen of Vargas, but he will have a lot to prove in 2024 if he wants to have a role in this deep organization.
Noah Syndergaard:
Los Angeles signed Syndergaard to a one-year deal during the off-season in an attempt to work similar magic on him that they had in previous years with guys like Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney. Unfortunately, the Midas Touch did not work on Syndergaard, as he had an abysmal stint with the Dodgers.
Syndergaard’s main goal upon arriving in Los Angeles was to find a way to increase his fastball velocity, as the pitch was essential to his success with the Mets. However, his heater dropped another mile-per-hour and a half, and his performance struggled worse than ever as a result.
Syndergaard finished the season in the bottom ten percent of the league in a number of statistics, including xERA, xBA, whiff rate, strikeout rate, and barrel percentage. In fact, his Baseball Savant page is so blue, you would think the website made everything Dodger-themed. It will be interesting to see where Syndergaard ends up going forward, as it doesn’t seem like his career is trending in the right direction.
Offseason Outlook:
This pitching staff needs help. What was once looking to be one of the best rotations in the majors for years to come suddenly has a plethora of question marks. Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin are on the shelf for the foreseeable future, Julio Urias will likely never throw a baseball again, and, if I’m Clayton Kershaw, the team from my backyard who just won a World Series is looking awfully enticing right now.
Adding to that is the fact that rookies such as Emmet Sheehan and Gavin Stone didn’t exactly prove their worth as 2024 rotation options, and who knows what Walker Buehler will look like after two Tommy John surgeries. Thus, the only guy you can really say is a lock is Bobby Miller, and, unless the Dodgers have developed a cloning machine (which wouldn’t surprise me at this point), they will need to make some big moves during the offseason to supplement him.
There are also needs to be addressed in the offense. The bottom half of the lineup wasn’t very productive in 2023, and the team is losing some of its depth pieces to free agency. Designated hitter J.D. Martinez and outfielder Jason Heyward are two valuable players who may be playing in other uniforms next season, as well as other names such as David Peralta, Enrique Hernandez, and Amed Rosario. Thus, Los Angeles will also be in the market for some hitting, whether that be from corner outfielders, utility players, or a new DH.
Shohei Ohtani looked like the perfect fit to address both these main needs before suffering an injury that will prevent him from pitching in 2024. He is still probably the best player in the world by a wide margin, but his injury will almost surely complicate the Dodgers’ willingness to give him the contract he will be asking for. Regardless, don’t be surprised if Los Angeles goes all in on the two-way superstar, as his talent, clubhouse presence, and marketability are unlike any other athlete on the planet right now.
Regardless of whether or not the Dodgers sign Ohtani, they still have a rotation to fill out, with a lot of money to spend. Bringing Clayton Kershaw back will be a priority, but none of the other impending free agents seem too enticing. Expect them to be in the running for top arms such as Aaron Nola, Blake Snell, and Japanese superstar Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
You have to also believe that they won’t be discouraged by the Noah Syndergaard project, and will continue to look at veteran pitchers they may be able to “fix”. Some guys that come to mind for this are Lucas Giolito, Jack Flaherty, and Seth Lugo.
Los Angeles has also expressed previous interest in Eduardo Rodriguez, as they almost traded for him at this year’s deadline before he declined it, specifying his preference to remain closer to the east coast.
The Dodgers will likely also look into trade options such as Corbin Burnes or Tyler Glasnow. No matter who it may be, expect this organization to collect a multitude of arms this offseason and re-tool its rotation for years to come.
As for the hitting needs, Los Angeles already has one acquisition with middle infielder Gavin Lux returning from the ACL tear that cost him the entire 2023 season. Free agency boasts a number of names the Dodgers may be interested in. If they don’t wind up with Ohtani, Los Angeles might pivot to a player like Jorge Soler to be designated hitter.
Some outfielders worth noting are Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Teoscar Hernandez, and Jesse Winker. I also wouldn’t rule out reunions with Heyward, Joc Pederson, or Cody Bellinger. Whit Merrifield seems like a good fit for this ballclub as well, given his defensive versatility. The Dodgers have a lot of flexibility this offseason and it will be intriguing to see how they fill holes and improve their roster with all the available options at their disposal.
What to Look Out For:
The answer here is just as exciting as it is obvious. The Dodgers have been showing interest in signing Shohei Ohtani since he was still in high school. He met with this team back before eventually deciding to join fellow generational talent Mike Trout and the Angels.
Now, as he hits free agency once again, all eyes have turned on trying to acquire the Japanese superstar, and the Dodgers may be in the best position to win the sweepstakes with what seems like infinite money to give him, as well as a plethora of talent to supplement him.
Categories: 2023 Season Review, Articles, Season Analysis
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