Check out my 2023 Season Preview Article for the Rays here.

Image: Phelan M. Ebenhack

2023 Record: 99-63 (.611 win%, 2nd in Division)

2023 Payroll: $52,744,710 (27^th)

2023 Hitters:

I’m going rogue. This is usually where we put the lineup section with the most common batters one through nine. With the Rays, that format just isn’t feasible. Instead, I’ll go by position groups and put the stats of guys who saw a considerable amount of playing time. 

*The number following each player’s name is the amount of games they played this season.

Catchers:

Christian Bethancourt (104), .225 AVG/.254 OBP/.381 SLG, 0.6 fWAR

Francisco Mejia (50), .227 AVG/.258 OBP/.400 SLG, -0.3 fWAR

Infielders:

Yandy Diaz (137), .330 AVG/.410 OBP/.522 SLG, 4.7 fWAR

Isaac Paredes (143), .250 AVG/.352 OBP/.488 SLG, 4.3 fWAR

Wander Franco (112), .281 AVG/.344 OBP/.475 SLG, 4.6 fWAR

Brandon Lowe (102), .231 AVG/.328 OBP/.443 SLG, 2.8 fWAR

Outfielders: 

Randy Arozarena (151), .254 AVG/.364 OBP/.425 SLG, 3.3 fWAR

Josh Lowe (135), .292 AVG/.335 OBP/.500 SLG, 3.8 fWAR

Jose Siri (101), .222 AVG/.267 OBP/.494 SLG, 2.7 fWAR

Manuel Margot (99), .264 AVG/.310 OBP/.376 SLG, 0.4 fWAR

Utility and Designated Hitters:

Harold Ramirez (122), .313 AVG/.353 OBP/.460 SLG, 1.8 fWAR

Luke Raley (118), .249 AVG/.333 OBP/.490 SLG, 2.6 fWAR

Taylor Walls (99), .201 AVG/.305 OBP/.333 SLG, 1.0 fWAR

2023 Rotation:

1. Zach Eflin, 177.2 IP/3.50 ERA/1.02 WHIP, 4.8 fWAR

2. Tyler Glasnow, 120.0 IP/3.53 ERA/1.08 WHIP, 3.2 fWAR

3. Shane McClanahan, 115.0 IP/3.29 ERA/1.18 WHIP, 1.8 fWAR

4. Taj Bradley, 104.2 IP/5.59 ERA/1.39 WHIP, 0.8 fWAR

5. Zack Littell, 87.0 IP/4.10 ERA/1.15 WHIP, 1.1 fWAR

2023 Top 5 Relievers:

1. Pete Fairbanks, 45.1 IP/2.58 ERA/1.01 WHIP, 1.3 fWAR

2. Jason Adam, 54.1 IP/2.98 ERA/1.01 WHIP, 0.4 fWAR

3. Colin Poche, 60.2 IP/2.23 ERA/1.09 WHIP, 1.1 fWAR

4. Kevin Kelly, 67.0 IP/3.09 ERA/1.01 WHIP, 1.2 fWAR

5. Jake Diekman, 45.1 IP/3.34 ERA/1.32 WHIP, 0.4 fWAR

Regular Season Recap:

The 2023 season for Tampa Bay was a roller coaster ride like no other. After tying the record for the best start in MLB history, the Rays would finish just one win shy of triple-digit victories. Unable to secure the division behind the 101-win Orioles, they would end as the fourth-best team by record. So where’d it all go wrong? Why was the game 162 roster a gutted version of the opening day one? And why were aspirations so low headed into October despite a productive regular season? Well, how much time do you have?

Let’s start with the good. How about that season start I mentioned? The Rays opened the year 13-0, winning each game of their first four series. Now, those 13 games may have been against the Tigers, Nationals, Athletics, and Red Sox, none of which had a winning record, but winning that many games, especially to start the year, is nothing to scoff at. 

With such a large head start, the Rays looked to coast through the season atop the AL East. Unfortunately, a lackluster 8-16 July allowed the Orioles to take the division lead. The Rays would follow closely behind for the remainder of 2023 but would never take over the top spot again.

Randy Arozarena felt like the embodiment of Tampa Bay this season. Playing a team most 151 games, Arozarena made some considerable improvements to his game in 2023. While a wRC+ of 126 falls pretty in line with Randy’s past years, his plate approach is where numbers improved. A walk and strikeout rate of 12.2% and 23.9% were his best yet in a full season. He also had a career-high 23 long balls. So what stopped this from being Arozarena’s best season and why couldn’t he beat the WAR he put up during his ROTY season? The answer lies in his glove.

Arozarena had -6 outs above average in 2023, following his trend of declining defense. Just two years ago Randy was an above-average fielder with top-arm value. But since regressing to a bottom 10% defender, his overall value has dropped slightly. Don’t let this distract you from the fact that the 28-year-old is still an elite hitter. Randy’s barrel and hard-hit rates are among the higher ones in the league complimented by his 91.7 MPH average exit velocity. This all culminates in a 23 batting run value according to Baseball Savant which places him in the top 89 percent of players. With an arbitration hearing on the horizon, Arozarena surely made a strong case for himself this past season.

Apart from the numbers, Randy’s presence in Tampa Bay heightens the atmosphere of games at the Trop. His swagger combined with fan appreciation elevates every play he’s involved in. In my preview, I talked about ticket packages and how the front office planned to utilize them to increase home turnout. They furthered this idea with “Randy Land,” a section of seats available every Friday where fans get a Randy t-shirt and the chance at a free drink if the left fielder can muster a home run. Bottom line, Tampa Bay lived and breathed Randy Arozarena this season.

Thanks to a contract extension last year, Yandy Diaz prolonged his time as a Ray through at least 2025. With a salary of just $6 million this year, the deal looks like an absolute steal. Diaz was easily one of the best hitters in baseball this season with the league’s fifth-highest wRC+ at 164. It’s rare to find a player that combines consistency and power but that’s exactly what you get in Yandy. His .330 average was fourth in the league and his hard-hit rate of 54% was in the 94th percentile of players. Another less-than-stellar defender, Diaz made the move to first base in an attempt to mitigate his glove. That being said, when you hit this good your team tends to care about your defense less.

Zach Eflin was the Rays’ big splash in free agency and, as the Rays tend to do, they helped him produce his best year yet. His age-29 season was worth 4.8 fWAR (fourth amongst AL pitchers) with a career-high 177.2 innings. Eflin excelled in most aspects on the bump but above all was his ability to prevent free passes. His 3.4% walk rate wasn’t just his career best but second best in the league behind only George Kirby. Eflin’s sinker and curve headlined his arsenal having 12 and 10 run values respectively. Both pitches accounted for putaways about a fourth of the time aided by his 95 percentile chase rate. To call Eflin a success would be an understatement as the Rays continue to prove why they have one of the best pitching labs in the league.

Tampa was happy to welcome Tyler Glasnow back for a full season of play after being sidelined for 2022. He started a career-high 21 games while maintaining numbers consistent with previous years of dominance. Glasnow is exemplary in his ability to get guys out at the plate with his 35.2% Whiff rate and 33.4% strikeout rate. Despite his contributions to the Rays, word around the league seems to be that the teams will try to deal him to another team. With young staff coming up through the farm, Tampa may be ready to say goodbye to Glasnow. 

Shane McClanahan was meant to headline the three-headed dragon of pitching the Rays entered 2023 with. While he was no short of spectacular, an injury at the end of the season and subsequent Tommy John surgery means McClanahan will likely miss all of the 2024 season. His presence will surely be missed as the ace is a wizard with his offspeed pitches. McClanahan’s changeup had a run value of 10 this season making it one of the best in the league. Combined with his elite velocity on his fastball and impressive swing-and-miss stats and it’s no mystery why McClanahan means so much to this team. The absence of the 26-year-old was clearly missed in the playoffs, but here’s to hoping for a speedy recovery and a successful return to the game.

One thing the Rays can look to improve is their catching situation. Christian Bethancourt and Francisco Mejia played the majority of games at the position this last year and were lackluster, to say the least. On the one hand, Bethancourt adds value with his ability to catch base stealers. His pop time and caught stealing rates are not only good, they’re elite. This comes at the cost of his hitting however which last season was horrendous. With only a 3.9% walk rate and strikeouts over a quarter of the time, it’s hard to justify his presence at the plate despite his prowess behind it. As for Mejia, two words: See Ya. Rene Pinto will hopefully get an increased workload moving forward and grow into his role with the Rays. He’s shown flashes of a good hitting catcher and only time can help improve his game behind the plate. The 27-year-old just might be the answer for the Rays.

Isaac Paredes, man. So inspirational. Having watched this guy as a Tiger, seeing what he’s doing in Tampa is special. His expected stats would tell you that he’s a bad hitter but that couldn’t be further from the case. He posted a wRC+ of 137 (most among third basemen), 31 home runs, and a ridiculous 26-run value according to Baseball Savant (92nd percentile). Although his usual high-level plate discipline took a slight decline in the past year, the power was still there. If Paredes can bring back elite pitch selection when hitting and replicate a hitting year like 2023, the Rays will have an exceptional player on their hands.

Despite some small injury management during the year, Brandon Lowe was very much back. His offense seemed to return to its former glory with the second baseman slugging 21 home runs for a 113 OPS+. But more impressively, Lowe is not a plus defender. Before 2023, Lowe had yet to post a defensive season with positive outs above average. This year he had 4. Other defensive metrics indicate Lowe won’t be competing for a Gold Glove anytime soon, but his performance at second adds value to his game already highlighted by his power bat. 

Taj Bradley was MLB’s 74th-ranked prospect in 2022 and got the chance to debut this season due to the rampant injury bug in the Rays’ clubhouse. His 23 games posed a challenge to the 22-year-old. Despite a 3.6 ERA through his first 7 games, Bradley finished the year 2 points higher than that. He gives up a lot of hard-hit balls and wasn’t great at converting contact into outs. There are aspects to like though. Bradley’s velocity is solid on his 4-seam and the spin rate on his curve rivals some of the most elite pitchers in the league. He’s also striking batters out 28% of the time which puts him above 85% of the league. It may just take some better pitch location and selection to avoid the big hits. 

NUKE RALEY BABY. Man did this guy take a step up this year. In his first full season, Raley posted a 130 wRC+ with 19 home runs. This dude rakes. He’s barreling the ball just under 13% of the time which is far above league average. He’s an interesting defender since he has a highly-rated arm and sprint speeds yet Raley finished the year with -1 OAA. The thing keeping Raley from being elite as opposed to just good is his discipline. He’s striking out 31.5% of the time and has one of the league’s worst whiff rates at 38.9. Regardless, Raley’s play this season was better than most people probably expected. 

The Rays bullpen tied for the 11th-best ERA across the league at 3.81. As always, the group was headlined by Pete Fairbanks who led Rays relievers in fWAR despite only pitching 45 innings due to injury. Everything was firing for Fairbanks this season as he maintained one of the fastest velos in the league resulting in an xBA of .173. He’s striking out batters 37% of the time, barely allows hard hits and barrels, and is great at producing ground balls. Relievers don’t get much better than Pete.

The rookie Kevin Kelly saw the most usage out of the pen and did so in great fashion. He had a 135 ERA+ and a FIP that matched his ERA. His kryptonite is strikeouts as he doesn’t get them very often but excels almost everywhere else. While he might not get guys outstanding at the plate, he excelled at providing the defense with playable balls with only a 3.6 barrel rate and 48.2 ground ball rate. He also prevented giving out free passes with a walk rate of just 5.4. 

The last really solid bullpen arm was Colin Poche. His xERA was just 2.73 making it one of the lowest in the MLB. Not much else to Poche other than to say he’s really good at not letting batters get hits. His four-seam and slider both had positive run values at 5 and 8 respectively. One key to this might have been the nearly 6 MPH he added to his breaking ball velocity between 2022 and 2023. While his stuff had been generally good in the past, this bump seems to be the key factor to the big performance this season.

M-SABR Predicted Record (86-75) vs. Actual (99-63):

I had predicted a good season for the Rays but didn’t come close to how good they actually were during the regular season. This record is surely bolstered by the immaculate start to the year but, in that same vein, was hindered by some rough stretches. I think one thing I couldn’t have predicted was just how well this offense would hit. Their lineup had the fourth most WAR of any team with 32.9. With few exceptions, it seemed like this entire offense hit its stride this year. A trend the Rays can hopefully continue into next year. 

Playoff Recap:

The Rays’ playoff aspirations were cut short yet again as the Rangers bounced them from the Wild Card round in two games. With a tattered roster pieced together by platoon players and rookies, Tampa didn’t have any gas left in the tank when October came around. Just one run was scored across the two games which was never going to be enough against a lineup like Texas’s. The Rays now own a 1-7 record in the playoffs since losing the World Series to the Dodgers in 2020. A roster that undergoes as much change year in and year-out as Tampa’s does never seems to have a “window.” That being said, the clock may be ticking for the core of this team.

Surprise of the Season:

No one surprised me more on the Rays than Taylor Walls. You might be asking yourself “Well didn’t Taylor Walls suck?” Yes, yes he did. You see, I’m surprised Taylor Walls found his way onto this roster for a full season. The Rays are built to platoon and I get that but when you look at their farm and the fact that they were in a position to upgrade at the deadline, you start to wonder how he played 99 games. Walls got time around the entire infield minus first which begs the question: Why? Do you need a rotational third baseman? Curtis Mead. Do you need someone to play short in light of the Wander Franco situation? Junior Caminero. Hell, even before the Franco issue he shouldn’t have been here the team was already so deep. Walls managed to finish in the bottom 10% of the league or lower in the following stats: xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, Barrel%, Outs above average, and Hard-Hit% (xBA and xSLG he was in the worst percentile). It sounds easy to say the Rays were just rocking with him because he was already on the roster. But valuing his spot over the progression of a young prospect surely hurt this team. 

Players We Watched: 

Player #1: Wander Franco

Yikes. Franco’s baseball performance seems unimportant in light of the events involving the player. This is not the place and I’m not the person to go into his situation, but there’s a chance we won’t see him don an MLB uniform ever again. Despite not playing the last two months of the season, Franco still finished second in fWAR for Tampa. On the field, he’s the cornerstone of the team. But with his future up in the air, the Rays look to Junior Caminero to fill the hole at shortstop for the time being.

Player #2: Kyle Manzardo

Did I jump the gun here? Yes, but I did it willingly. I needed a spot to talk about him in that preview and this was the spot to do it. Before the 2023 season started I was convinced Manzardo was the second coming of Barry Bonds. His performance in the minor leagues this year was a step in the wrong direction but he’s still a performing prospect. Currently ranked 58th on MLB’s prospect ranking, Manzardo had a .802 OPS and 17 home runs. He is, however, no longer a Ray after being dealt to Cleveland in the Aaron Civale deal at the end of July. While he won’t appear on any future Rays reports, I still have high hopes for the prospect.

Player #3: Josh Lowe

At the end of May, I was fantasizing about this section. Lowe was slashing .304/.353/.584 with 1.9 fWAR. Much like the rest of the Rays at that time, he was electric. But where the production from Franco, Arozarena, and Diaz was expected, Lowe came as more of a surprise. He eventually cooled down from the fiery start with one more hot streak in late August. However, Lowe still had a fantastic year. He finished with the Rays’ fourth-highest fWAR at 3.8 and had a 131 wRC+. At just 25 years of age, I think there’s still a lot left in the tank for Lowe, and hope to see him continue to develop.

Offseason Outlook:

This is always a fun one to watch for the Rays. Each year they go into the offseason with a few guys they’re looking to deal. This year it’s likely Glasnow and possibly other aging members of the roster. I’d look for them to make some type of effort toward acquiring a catcher. Other than that it’s all about whose price is right. I could see them adding pitching depth as well as making some swaps to round out the outfield. But as always, look for them to make some trades.

What to Pay Attention to in the Future:

The Rays are getting a new stadium! This isn’t an immediate thing, but it’s worth talking about, nonetheless. The team announced at the end of this season that they plan to keep playing in St. Petersburg with a $1.3 billion ballpark on the way. The stadium will accommodate 30,000 fans and plans to open in 2028. The venue will feature an artificial turf field, three levels of seating, and a fixed roof. The location will remain the same with the new park being built on the same lot where the Rays currently play. While staying in St. Pete is surely a topic of some controversy among attendees and Rays fans across the state of Florida due to accessibility issues, the change in scenery should bring some new life to the team. 

Categories: 2023 Season Review, Season Analysis