Check out my 2023 Season Preview Article for the Twins here.

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2023 Record: 87-75 (.537 win%, 1st in Division)

2023 Payroll: $156,104,540 (16^th) 

2023 Lineup:

1. C Ryan Jeffers, .276 AVG/.369 OBP/.490 SLG, 2.7 fWAR

2. 1B Donovan Solano, .282 AVG/.369 OBP/.391 SLG, 1.2 fWAR

3. 2B Edouard Julien, .263 AVG/.381 OBP/.459 SLG, 2.8 fWAR

4. 3B Royce Lewis, .309 AVG/.372 OBP/.548 SLG, 2.4 fWAR

5. SS Carlos Correa, .230 AVG/.312 OBP/.399 SLG, 1.1 fWAR

6. LF Joey Gallo, .177 AVG/.301 OBP/.440 SLG, 0.7 fWAR

7. CF Michael A. Taylor, .220 AVG/.278 OBP/.442 SLG, 1.7 fWAR

8. RF Max Kepler, .260 AVG/.332 OBP/.484 SLG, 2.6 fWAR

9. DH Byron Buxton, .207 AVG/.294 OBP/.438 SLG, 0.7 fWAR

10. UTIL Willi Castro, .257 AVG/.339 OBP/.411 SLG, 2.5 fWAR

11. UTIL Kyle Farmer, .253 AVG/.314/.405, 1.6 fWAR

2023 Rotation:

1. Pablo López , 194.0 IP/3.66 ERA/1.16 WHIP, 4.5 fWAR

2. Sonny Gray, 184.0 IP/2.79 ERA/1.15 WHIP, 5.3 fWAR

3. Joe Ryan, 161.2 IP/4.51 ERA/1.17 WHIP, 2.2 fWAR

4. Bailey Ober, 144.1 IP/3.43 ERA/1.07 WHIP, 2.4 fWAR

5. Kenta Maeda, 104.1 IP/4.23 ERA/1.17 WHIP, 1.5 fWAR

2023 Top 4 Relievers:

1. Jhoan Duran, 62.1 IP/2.45 ERA/1.14 WHIP, 1.0 fWAR

2. Griffin Jax, 65.1 IP/3.86 ERA/1.18 WHIP, 1.2 fWAR

3. Emilio Pagán, 69.1 IP/2.99 ERA/0.95 WHIP, 1.1 fWAR

4. Jovani Moran, 42.1 IP/5.31 ERA/1.47 WHIP, 0.3 fWAR

Regular Season Recap:

For the first half of the 2023 season, the Minnesota Twins were extra committed to stressing everybody out. The strongest team in the AL Central by far, they spent the first two months of the season struggling to pull ahead in the division. On June 1st, they were only 2.5 games ahead of the 26-28 Detroit Tigers, and it looked like fans might have been in for a frustratingly long summer. 

The All-Star Break provided some much-needed rest, as they went 9-2 following the Midsummer Classic and never looked back. From lockdown pitching to a bunch of fun little surprise rookie performances, the Twins’ 2023 season was a great indication of what’s to come for this franchise.

Just a season ago, the pitching on this team was almost hard to watch. The starting pitching was incapable of pitching deep into games, tiring out their bullpen and ultimately making it difficult for them to win down the stretch. This season, they were able to go from fourth worst in IP to fourth best- easily making them the biggest movers. Compared to other rotations, they had the most strikeouts, the second-best ERA, and the second-highest WAR. With the help of Sonny Gray and Pablo López, they were one of the most dominant rotations in baseball.

In the final year of his contract, Sonny Gray delivered. His 8-8 record is just the product of some bad luck because he was easily one of the best pitchers this season. His HR/9 was 0.39, which is kind of insane. Justin Steele was the closest to Gray, with a whopping 0.73 HR/9. His 2.79 ERA was his lowest in a full season since 2015 when he finished third in the Cy Young voting. Eight years later he finds himself right back in the conversation, although he’ll likely finish second to Gerrit Cole.

Pablo López, the second half of the Twins’ two-headed monster, proved to be a great offseason acquisition by the Twins. His 32 GS and 194 IP were both career highs, and his team-leading 234 SO were 60 more than his previous best. He probably won’t be a finalist like his buddy, but he’ll get a little bit of love in the CY Young voting. 

The rest of the rotation was rounded out by Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, and Kenta Maeda. Joe Ryan, looking to build off of his stellar ‘22 campaign, was a little inconsistent. He was one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball at the beginning of the season, going 6-1 with a 2.16 ERA and 10.6 K/9 in his first eight starts. 

The wheels didn’t quite fall off, though they definitely got wobbly, as he had a 5.71 ERA and nine losses the rest of the way, and even missed the majority of August with a left groin strain. He was still striking guys out at an elite level, he just happened to give up a lot of runs along the way. 

Bailey Ober, after starting the season in AAA, just may have secured his role in the starting rotation for years to come. There wasn’t anything fancy about his pitches (he didn’t even have a single one with over 100 Stuff+), but who needs to spin it when you’re 6’9” with great command? Pounding the zone and pitching to contact was one of his greatest strengths, and his 1.81 BB/9 was among the best.

The bullpen was perfectly average, which isn’t a huge problem when they aren’t being heavily relied upon. Jhoan Duran had another sparkling season, establishing himself as one of the best closers in baseball. The average velocity on his fastball was 101.8 MPH, unsurprisingly leading the league. His splitter averaged 98.4 MPH, which is absolutely wicked (the next fastest was 93 MPH). He used those two pitches to make opposing batters look silly all season long, and it feels like he’s just getting started. 

Emilio Pagán, good? After a 2022 season that had fans sweating nervously every time he took the mound, this season was a great turnaround for him. He was a steady option in a pen that wasn’t always the most consistent, and I think that’s all fans could ask for.

After a pretty disappointing season offensively in 2022, the Twins needed to make some pretty big improvements to seriously compete. While things didn’t necessarily look promising after dealing Luis Arraez at the beginning of the year, his absence wasn’t even felt after a slew of offseason moves and a few breakout performances. 

Even though they got off to an extremely slow start (it only took them a couple of months to get going, that’s not too bad!), they were able to finish the season as one of the better offenses in baseball. They may not have had a single player with more than 25 home runs, but the 233 they had as a team was good for third best—and tied with the Texas Rangers for the most in the AL.

For the past couple of seasons, it seems like Ryan Jeffers has started the season as a backup to whoever gets signed in the offseason. Sharing time with Christian Vázquez, he slashed .276/.490/.858 on his way to the best season of his young career, and his 135 OPS+ led the team. His emerging bat, along with Vázquez’s defense behind the plate, gave Minnesota a catching tandem that is hard to complain about. 

Playing in 135 games, Carlos Correa led the team in appearances this season. As always, there aren’t many shortstops you’d rather have on your team. In somewhat of a down year offensively (18 HR, .230/.399/.711), his leadership on and off the field was invaluable. 

The Twins had multiple offseason additions who quickly became vital parts of the team. Willi Castro, Kyle Farmer, and Donovan Solano were all extremely versatile, playing all over the diamond. They didn’t put up gaudy numbers by any means, but they were sneaky good in some areas. 

Castro’s 33 steals, as well as Solano’s .282 average, led the team. Michael A. Taylor shined defensively in center, making Buxton’s (hopefully) temporary move to DH a little easier to accept for the Twins. His 5 DRS wasn’t quite what it was last season, but was still above average among centerfielders. 

Rounding out the offense, we have Alex Kirilloff and Jorge Polanco. Both of these guys started the season on the IL, and landed back on it a couple more times down the stretch. It’s not like they were complete scrubs when they did play; Kirilloff had 26 XBH and hit .270, and Polanco had a 1.5 WAR in less than half of a season. When they’re healthy next year, the Twins are going to be swimming in talent.

M-SABR Predicted Record (86-76) vs. Actual (87-75):

So, so, close. I thought my prediction was toast at the All-Star break, but an amazing second half saw the Minnesota Twins just barely surpass the 86 wins I landed on before the season. In my preview, I said that full seasons from Buxton and Correa, along with quality starts from the rotation, would help the Twins cruise past their win total from a year ago.

While the rotation was a huge part of their success, Buxton and Correa weren’t as vital as I thought they’d be. Buxton had a pretty injury-ridden season, and Correa didn’t put up his typical flashy numbers, but that didn’t stop the Twins from winning the AL Central with ease. The weak division certainly helped, but they were also able to beat the teams with winning records, something that really helped them come close to reaching 90 wins.

Playoff Recap:

All eyes were on the Twins as they prepared to play the Toronto Blue Jays during the wild card series. They hadn’t won a postseason game since Johan Santana and Co. shut out the New York Yankees in game one of the ALDS in 2004, and owned the longest postseason losing streak in MLB, NFL, NHL, and NBA history. It seemed as though the entire country was rooting for them to end the streak, to win just one game. They did it! Pablo López and Sonny Gray turned in dominating performances on the mound, and Royce Lewis couldn’t stop hitting bombs en route to a sweep of the Blue Jays, and their first divisional series berth since 2019.

Unfortunately, the Twins were the only thing standing between the Houston Astros and their seventh straight ALCS appearance. They were able to salvage one game from the series, but it’s just never good to run into the Astros during the postseason. They may have fallen short, but it’s impossible to say that their run was a failure. Target Field was electric throughout the four home games, and it appears as though fans are even more excited to see what next season has to offer.

Surprise of the Season: 

I’m not going to say “ending the postseason losing streak” here because I bet all Twins fans were 100% sure it was going to happen. They had nothing but confidence, never doubted them for a second, right? I will, however, say that the group of stud rookies was a little surprising. Everyone knew that Royce Lewis was going to be good, especially after his fantastic 12-game stint last season, but guys like Edouard Julien and Matt Wallner were just the icing on the cake. 

Julien had a breakout performance in the Arizona Fall League last season, leading the league in AVG, OBP, OPS, runs, and walks. He spent all of last season in AA and had only 29 ABs in AAA before making his major league debut in April. His success in the AFL carried over, and he ended up being one of the most valuable players on this team. 

Matt Wallner fought tooth and nail to be an everyday starter for the Twins, and boy, did he deserve it. A little bit of cherry-picking puts him in a category with only Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani, as they were the only players with a higher barrel% after the all-star break. Factor in the young pitchers like Ober and Duran, and it looks like the Twins have built a pretty solid young core.

Players We Watched: 

When it was announced that Byron Buxton was going to start the season at DH, I’m not sure anyone thought he’d spend the entire season there. I was hopeful that it would lead to a long and successful season, and I’m not sure I’d say either of those things happened. There were stretches in which he looked like an MVP-caliber player, but those were overshadowed by frequent trips to the IL and hard-to-watch slumps. His 2023 campaign was slightly worrisome (especially the part where he was strictly DH and only played 85 games), but it still feels a little too soon to panic. 

Royce Lewis was just such a guy this season. He may have only played in 58 games in his rookie campaign, but the numbers that he was able to put up were very promising. Even though he played half as many games as his fellow rookies, he consistently ranked in the top ten in categories such as HR and RBI. 

It’s hard to compare some of the other stats just because he wasn’t technically qualified, but his .309 AVG and .921 OPS blew all other rookies out of the water. He was a grand slam machine, a postseason hero, and could be on his way to becoming an absolute legend. If he had played maybe 40 more games this season, I’d probably be talking about the AL ROY right here. 

I was convinced that Joey Gallo and Max were both going to have the greatest seasons of their careers following the new shift rules. I might have been wrong, but I don’t think it would be too far of a reach to say that one of them had the best second half of his career. 

Joey Gallo was the first player in MLB history to post an AVG below .180 and an OPS+ over 100, because of course he was. He had 13.4 AB/HR… good! He also struck out almost 43% of the time… bad! With Gallo most likely departing in free agency, it’ll be interesting to see what the future holds for him.

Max Kepler stumbled out of the gates, but caught fire somewhere around mid-June and never looked back. Since June 20th, his .913 OPS was 10th best in the AL. His average EV and HardHit%, along with his fWAR, all hovered around the top 15 during that timespan. After his second half, the Twins’ decision to exercise their $10M club option was a rather easy one. 

Offseason Outlook:

Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, and Emilio Pagán are all slated to become free agents. While López, Ryan, Ober, Paddack, and Varland would be an extremely solid rotation, and could easily be just as successful as the one they had this year, you can never have too many pitchers. Twins fans might not fully trust Pagán, but it wouldn’t be terrible to bring him back. 

He is still only 32, and one of the cheapest relief pitchers on the market. His market value is around $4.5M, which isn’t bad at all for a guy with the potential to be a reliable option late in games. Other options include Reynaldo Lopez and former Twin Michael Fulmer, both of whom would provide some much-needed depth to this bullpen.

As far as starting pitching goes, the Twins should look to add another ace. Joe Ryan has ace potential, and Chris Paddack looked phenomenal in his short return, but another veteran, established ace on this pitching staff would be a game-changer. 

It might be a little more than the Twins are willing to spend, but Eduardo Rodriguez (assuming he opts out) could be a nice addition. He’d bring postseason experience to a relatively young staff, something that could be extremely valuable as the Twins look to go deeper than the ALDS in 2024 (he’s also a lefty, something that the Twins don’t currently have in the rotation). 

With Brooks Lee and Austin Martin knocking on the door, and Kepler and Polanco here to stay, it’s hard to find any room to make a meaningful addition to the lineup. First base has been a revolving door since the days of Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer, so it might be nice to add one. If Rhys Hoskins is an option, sign him. If not, maybe wait until next season’s deadline to address it if it’s an issue. 

What to Pay Attention to in the Future:

The Twins were eliminated from the postseason a little over three weeks ago, and it feels like there have been so many new developments. There was about a week there when Thad Levine was rumored to be in the running for the Red Sox GM opening, but that seems to be over.

Earlier this week, it was announced that Dick Bremer won’t be returning to the broadcast team next season, marking the end of his 40-year run as the voice of the Minnesota Twins. So, while the Twins shouldn’t find themselves needing a new GM in the coming months, the hunt is on for a new play-by-play voice.

Categories: 2023 Season Review, Articles, Season Analysis

Tags: 2023 Season Review, Minnesota Twins