Check out Caleb Marcin’s 2023 Season Preview Article for the Pirates here.
Image: (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)
2023 Record: 76-86 (.469 win%, 4th in NL Central)
2023 Payroll: $68,945,975 (29th)
2023 Lineup:
1. C Jason Delay, .251 AVG/.319 OBP/.347 SLG, 1.1 fWAR
2. 1B Carlos Santana, .235 AVG/.321 OBP/.412 SLG, 1.0 fWAR [w/PIT]
3. 2B Ji-Hwan Bae, .231 AVG/.296 OBP/.311 SLG, -0.3 fWAR
4. 3B Ke’Bryan Hayes, .271 AVG/.309 OBP/.453 SLG, 3.3 fWAR
5. SS Tucupita Marcano, .233 AVG/.276 OBP/.356 SLG, -0.4 fWAR
6. LF Bryan Reynolds, .263 AVG/.330 OBP/.460 SLG, 2.3 fWAR
7. CF Jack Suwinski, .224 AVG/.339 OBP/.454 SLG, 2.8 fWAR
8. RF Connor Joe, .247 AVG/.339 OBP/.421 SLG, 1.9 fWAR
9. DH Andrew McCutchen, .256 AVG/.378 OBP/.397 SLG, 1.2 fWAR
10. OF Josh Palacios, .239 AVG/.279 OBP/.413 SLG, 0.0 fWAR
2023 Rotation:
1. Mitch Keller, 194.1 IP/4.21 ERA/3.80 FIP/1.245 WHIP 3.3 fWAR
2. Johan Oviedo, 177.2 IP/4.31 ERA/4.49 FIP/1.373 WHIP, 1.8 fWAR
3. Rich Hill, 119.0 IP/4.76 ERA/4.43 FIP/1.479 WHIP, 1.1 fWAR
4. Luis Ortiz, 86.2 IP/4.78 ERA/5.58 FIP/1.696 WHIP, -0.3 fWAR
5. Roansy Contreras, 68.1 IP/6.59 ERA/5.19 FIP/1.566 WHIP, 0.1 fWAR
2023 Top 4 Relievers:
1. David Bednar, 67.1 IP/2.00 ERA/2.53 FIP/1.099 WHIP, 2.3 fWAR
2. Dauri Moreta, 58.0 IP/3.72 ERA/2.93 FIP/1.086 WHIP, 1.0 fWAR
3. Colin Holderman, 56.0 IP/3.86 ERA/3.29 FIP/1.339 WHIP, 0.9 fWAR
4. Jose Hernandez, 50.2 IP/4.97 ERA/4.48 FIP/1.362 WHIP, 0.1 fWAR
Regular Season Recap:
With the youngest roster in baseball and a quiet offseason where minor veteran acquisitions were all that was done to build on their 62-win 2022 roster (although bringing back Andrew McCutchen was a pretty big thing for the fanbase), no one expected too much out of the Pirates.
2023 seemed to be a season to allow their young players to progress, and the arrival of top prospects such as Nick Gonzales, Henry Davis, Quinn Priester and Endy Rodriguez were imminent. Improvement was the main goal for the Pirates, and that is ultimately what they got, with their best finish in five years. The path to get there, however, was quite the roller coaster ride.
The Pirates managed to come out of the gate well enough, sweeping the Red Sox in Fenway and getting off to a 6-3 start. Then came the game against the White Sox on April 9th, when Oneil Cruz fractured his fibula sliding into home. That was absolutely devastating for the Pirates, because this seemed to be the year where he could take a leap and turn his flashes of greatness into consistency.
There’s no certainty this would have been the year, but either way, a player as talented as Cruz losing his age-24 season that could be key for development is something you don’t want to see. His season was over, and just like that the Pirates had lost their most electric player after just 9 games.
Alright, quick trivia question: What do you get when you combine a young team with low expectations with the loss of their most electric player nine games into the season? That’s right, a 20-8 start and the best record in the NL going into May.
The Pirates couldn’t be stopped in April, and both the bats and the arms were working. The team had a .794 OPS through April, good for third in the majors, and were sixth in the league in team ERA. Several players got off to extremely hot starts, including Mitch Keller pitching to the tune of a 2.90 ERA in April and Jack Suwinski smacking six homers and stealing five bases in April with a 1.069 OPS, good for 4th in the league.
It wasn’t only the young guys off to a blazing start, either, as veteran addition Carlos Santana and returning Pittsburgh icon Andrew McCutchen both had an OPS over .800 heading into May. It seemed like several young players on the Pirates had made the leap and they were getting solid production out of their veterans as well. April represented what the Pirates could look like if they realized their full potential.
Unfortunately, with a team that has an average age of 26.1 years old, inconsistency is bound to catch up at some point, and it did just that, with the Pirates dropping seven straight after their magical start. They were back down to .500 by May 28, although they were still clinging to the third wild card spot at the 60 game mark. Unfortunately for them, this was not 2020, and the division slipped out of reach after a brutal 10-game losing streak in mid-June put them in a 5.5 game hole that they would never recover from.
With the division lead gone and some of the hot starts fizzling out, the Pirates played to a disappointing 8-15 record in July, although a bright spot of the month was drafting Paul Skenes, viewed as one of the best pitching prospects ever. They sat 9.5 games back at the deadline, and were pushed into selling, getting rid of some of their expiring veteran contracts for solid prospect returns helping to further build their young core.
Carlos Santana was shipped to the Brewers for SS Jhonny Severino, a young prospect who is raw but is viewed as having good potential. They were also able to ship Rich Hill and Ji-Man Choi to the Padres for a 3 player package of Jackson Wolf (who slotted in as the Pirates No. 10 prospect), Alfonso Rivas, and Estuar Suero (No. 30).
They made a few other minor moves, shipping Austin Hedges to the Rangers for International Bonus Pool space and Rodolfo Castro to the Phillies for Bailey Falter, a lefty who was able to pick up 40 innings with the Pirates, although his 5.58 ERA left something to be desired. Hedges was abysmal offensively and trading him allowed Endy Rodriguez to get more innings behind the plate, while Castro was stuck behind a ton of middle infield prospects and would’ve been fighting for innings.
Allowing space for young players to get experience was necessary as the Pirates had 14 different players make their major league debut at some point this year. In fact, after shipping their veterans away at the deadline, the Pirates only had 2 players over the age of 30 appear in a game for the rest of the season, and no one over 30 appeared after September 4.
Even despite this, the Pirates managed to end the season on a solid note, going 29-28 post-deadline and getting several encouraging signs, including Ke’Bryan Hayes’ strong offensive finish, the hot start of Jared Triolo, and three rookie relievers pitching to a sub-3 ERA post all-star break.
These were the types of steps that Pittsburgh wanted to see in the season, and although it would’ve been nice to compete after starting 20-8, the season should still be considered a success because the Pirates improved their record, were able to call up several rookies and give them a taste of big leagues, and showed the progress that everyone wanted to see. With continued development and a willingness to spend a little bit of money, this team could compete very soon.
Hitter Analysis:
The Pirates didn’t exactly tear the cover off the ball this year, finishing around 20th in runs, on-base percentage, and OPS. As one might expect, their offensive trend was similar to their season trend. They had a scorching hot April, finishing third in OPS for the month, but then went cold for the large part of the summer, finishing 28th, 25th, and 29th over the next three months before righting the ship and finishing in the middle of the pack in August and September.
One of the biggest individual bright spots from the offense was Jared Triolo’s stellar debut campaign. After being called up on June 28, Triolo slashed .298/.388/.398, and was a consistent bat in the Pirates lineup. His power isn’t elite, but he had the 2nd highest sweet spot percentage on the team last season, and got hits when it counted as he had the highest average on the team with runners in scoring position at .319 (minimum 25 ABs w/ RISP).
It is worth noting that he hit vastly better than his expected statline, as he had an xBA of .250, an xSLG of .372, and an xwOBA of .323. He’s a big candidate to regress next year, but he provides above average defense (87th percentile in OAA) and has a track record of success, hitting .284/.370/.439 across 3.5 seasons in the minors. These factors combined with his solid season this year means he will continue to get playing time next year, but be wary of regression.
Another very encouraging offensive aspect was the liveliness in Ke’Bryan Hayes’ bat, particularly over the second half. It is common knowledge that he’s one of the best defensive third baseman in the game since his debut, but he hadn’t been able to be an offensive weapon other than a 24 game sample during his rookie year.
This year, he had his best offensive season yet, and although it was nothing crazy with a .271/.309/.453 line, there are reasons to believe that he may be able to have more consistent offensive production in the future. His hard hit %, avg. exit velo, xBA, xwOBA and xSLG all increased this year, indicating that he is hitting the ball better than in previous years, and he closed out the season strong, slashing .299/.335/.539 in 49 games after the break.
It may be wishful thinking, but if he is able to consistently put up offensive numbers like what he did after the break combined with his elite defense, then he will make the jump from solid player to superstar.
Bryan Reynolds was a consistent top of the order bat, putting up similar stats to what he did in 2022 with a slash line of .263/.330/.460. His OPS+ and wRC+ dropped slightly, but he hit better than what shows up on the statline, which I will dive into later. No matter what, he still provided above average offensive production and was a rock in their lineup.
Jack Suwinski also took a leap and had a very promising year, even if the batting average was low and he was inconsistent. He has elite plate discipline, ranking in the 94th percentile in walk rate and 96th percentile in chase rate, which you love to see from a young player.
In addition to getting on base he showed great power, leading the team with 26 home runs and he managed to slug .454 despite only hitting .224. He had an up and down season, but ended with a strong month of September slashing .291/.364/.488 after a very cold stretch post all-star break.
Suwinski has a lot of potential, and if he can find a little more consistency and continue to raise his overall stats next year, he could be a superstar for the Pirates.
The Pirates were also able to get solid production from the few veterans they had.
Before he was shipped away, Carlos Santana was playing well enough and was right around league average offensively, with a 97 wRC+ and a 99 OPS+, giving the Pirates respectable offense at first that they so desperately needed.
Ji-Man Choi was supposed to platoon with Santana but he played in only 23 games and hit just .206 before being traded away, ultimately a somewhat disappointing tenure. After they were both traded away, first base became a carousel of Connor Joe, Alfonso Rivas, and Jared Triolo got the occasional start there as well.
The Pirates also got good production out of the veteran hitters they kept on the roster, as both Connor Joe and Andrew McCutchen finished with an OPS+ and wRC+ of over 105. McCutchen was a particularly surprising bat in the lineup, as he posted an OBP of .378 before going down with a partially torn achilles in early September, which was his best mark in a season of 100+ games since 2015, his last all-star season. The power and speed aren’t what they once were, but he provided a solid veteran presence to the team and provided offensive value.
While the veteran production was solid, most of the young and unproven guys struggled to find footing at the plate.
The middle infield production was woeful, with 7 players (6 of them 24 or younger) registering 15 or more games in the middle infield and none of them hitting over .235 or posting an OPS over .675. The only one who even put up an OPS of .650 or better was Rodolfo Castro, the one middle infielder that the Pirates traded away.
In fact, it was so bad that the only middle infielder to put up positive fWAR was Oneil Cruz, who played a whopping 9 games. The lack of offense was mildly concerning, but they are young, and many of them hit at least respectably in the minors, especially Gonzalez and Bae. Cruz returning next year will help as well, so it’s not time to panic yet.
Besides their carousel of young middle infielders, Henry Davis and Endy Rodriguez also debuted this year. Neither one exactly popped off the page offensively, and Davis in particular fizzled after a fast start, slashing .270/.362/.432 in his first 31 games but only .158/.242/.272 over his last 31.
Normally you would like this to be flipped and have struggles at the beginning before gradually figuring it out, but his opening stretch showed his potential. He was a number 1 pick who hit consistently in the minors, so he should be able to figure it out as he gets more experience.
Rodriguez is a similar story, an elite prospect who has shown he can hit in the past, plus he is still able to bring value with his above average defense at catcher. In a perfect world these two would’ve hit a little better, but they are young and it isn’t overly concerning to see them struggle because in case you forgot, hitting a baseball is hard. They’ll bounce back.
Pitcher Analysis:
The pitching staff wasn’t great for the Pirates, finishing between 20th and 22nd in team ERA, WHIP, average allowed, and strikeouts. The main weakness of their staff was their starting rotation.
Mitch Keller had a solid season earning his first all-star nod, and even though his ERA jumped from 3.91 in 2022 to 4.21, his strikeout numbers increased and his FIP and WHIP decreased, which are positives and indicate that his underlying numbers were better than what ERA shows.
It also didn’t help that his ERA was inflated by a rough stretch after the all-star break where he gave up 24 ER in 21.2 IP. If that stretch is removed, he pitched to a 3.49 ERA, which is a very good number and would’ve put him at 17th in the majors. He took a step forward this year and was by far their best starter.
The second starter for most of the season was Johan Oviedo. He wasn’t elite by any means, but he started 32 games and threw 177 innings with a 4.31 ERA, 4.49 FIP, and below average strikeout rate and walk rate. His ERA was good for a 103 ERA+, or right around league average. It wasn’t flashy, but having a league average pitcher who can eat innings is more useful than it might seem with the prevalence of arm injuries in today’s game.
Behind those two, the rotation was a revolving door. Two of their veteran signings, Rich Hill and Vince Velazquez, occupied rotation spots at the start of the year. Both pitched well enough, particularly Velazquez, who had a 3.06 ERA through April. Unfortunately, he went down with a torn UCL in early May, sapping them of a solid middle of the rotation starter. Hill was understandably dealt at the trade deadline, but his departure meant the loss of a consistent innings eater for the staff.
The remainder of the starts were split between a carousel of pitchers including Quinn Priester, Luis Ortiz, and Roansy Contreras, with Bailey Falter, Osvaldo Bido and Andre Jackson going back and forth between starts and long relief.
The three young guys were back and forth between AAA and the majors, and none of them had an ERA below 4.75, which was particularly frustrating for Contreras as he had managed a 3.79 ERA in 95 innings in 2022 but took a step back this year. Priester never quite looked like he had it, giving up three or more earned runs in nine of his 10 appearances, and finished tied for the 7th-highest HR/9 rate of any pitcher with at least 40 innings pitched, at 2.2 HR/9. Ortiz was the best of the three, but he wasn’t exactly Roger Clemens.
The three guys picking up spot starts and long relief appearances weren’t much better. Jackson was somewhat solid with a 4.33 ERA, around league average, but Falter and Bido both had ERAs over 5.50.
JT Brubaker would’ve helped the rotation a lot, as it desperately needed another solid arm capable of throwing innings. Even putting up an ERA of 4.69 like he did last year would have helped, because it was better than what they got from the back half of their rotation for the last half of the season.
The rotation may have been weak, but the bullpen was solid. David Bednar continued his run as one of the best closers in baseball, earning an all-star appearance and leading the NL in saves, with 39. Middle relievers such as Dauri Moreta and Colin Holderman improved from last year and were reliable bullpen arms sporting ERAs in the mid to upper threes, plus Moreta broke the internet with his inverted slider that seems to defy physics.
Check out Lucas Szentgyorgyi’s article here.
Maybe the best out of the middle reliever bunch was Ryan Borucki, who was their best lefty in the pen and finished with a 2.45 ERA and 0.744 WHIP over 40 innings, a stellar season.
In addition to solid performances in the middle of the bullpen, the Pirates got some great debuts from rookies as well. Carmen Mlodzinski finished with a 2.25 ERA over 36 innings, although his FIP was above 4, so he may come back down to Earth next year.
2 other rookies maintained a sub-3 ERA after the all-star break, Cody Bolton and Hunter Stratton. Bolton finished with an ERA over six, but he ended the season well, putting up a 2.92 ERA with 14 strikeouts in 12.1 innings after the break. Stratton debuted after the break and had a 2.25 ERA in 12 innings, but similarly to Mlodzinski, watch for him to come back down to Earth next year as his FIP was 4.76.
Overall, the bullpen was a solid unit for the Pirates with good performances throughout. If they are going to play October baseball in the near future, which is the goal, then having a solid bullpen goes a long way.
M-SABR Predicted Record (74-88) vs. Actual (76-86):
The Pirates season preview article was written by Caleb Marcin, and his prediction was pretty close to perfect. To be within two games in a 162 game season is impressive, and he said that he didn’t trust the team to win consistently because of their youth, which ended up being the case.
They had brilliant stretches, they had miserable stretches, but overall they ended up improving on their 2022 campaign and showed signs of progress.
Surprise of the Season:
Andrew McCutchen’s performance was a pleasant surprise for the Pirates this year. He was signed in the offseason, but it was more of a homecoming/veteran addition than a signing that was supposed to really impact the team from a pure baseball standpoint.
He was coming off his first below average offensive season ever in terms of OPS+ and wRC+, and posted career lows in on-base percentage and slugging percentage, even with the inclusion of injury-shortened seasons and the COVID season. The writing seemed to be on the wall, but he came into the season with 2,000 hits in reach, and he was beloved in Pittsburgh, so at the very least he would make fans happy.
Well make fans happy he did. McCutchen had a complete resurgence, as if putting on black and gold sent him back in time. He put up his highest wRC+ and OPS+ (115 & 113) in a season of 100+ G since 2018, and put up his highest on-base percentage (.378) since his final all-star season, all the way back in 2015.
While his overall stats were solid, his first three months were absolutely magical. He hit five homers in April and sported a .478 slugging percentage through the first month. His power numbers wouldn’t be that prolific again but in May he hit .290/.393/.427 to bring his overall numbers up to .273/.369/.453 with eight homers through the first two months. He followed up the good start with an amazing month of June, posting a ridiculous slash line of .319/.462/.458 with 20 walks in 21 games played in June, in addition to collecting his 2,000th hit.
His overall stats were sitting at .287/.399/.455 going into July. Keep in mind this is a 36 year old who hasn’t had a season anywhere close to this caliber in years, as the last time he had an OPS of .854 in July or later was all the way back in 2017, his last season in his first stint with the Pirates. He did eventually slump, and was more forgettable in the second half before going down in early September, but the first few months were amazing and he still gave Pirates fans more than they expected in his return.
Players We Watched:
#1 Bryan Reynolds
Reynolds was coming off a disappointing 2022 where he was still an above average major league hitter by almost all metrics, but didn’t match his outstanding .302/.390/.522 statline from 2021, instead landing at .262/.345/.461 with decreases in OPS+ and wRC+.
This year many hoped he could get back to 2021 form, but he was not able to, closely matching his 2022 statline by hitting .263/.330/.460 although with more runs and RBIs. His OPS+ and wRC+ both dropped again, about 15 points worse than 2022, which seems like bad news.
However, as I said earlier, there are reasons to believe that bad luck was somewhat of a culprit. Reynolds’s statcast metrics give a much better expected performance than he actually had, as he improved almost across the board. He increased his barrel percentage, average exit velo, hard hit percentage, and cut down his strikeout rate, which in turn led to a higher xBA, xSLG, and xwOBA.
Reynolds improved pretty much every advanced stat across the board except walk rate…and he had a worse season offensively than 2022. It may be disappointing to see his offense decrease again, but it shouldn’t be alarming, because it was very fluky and his numbers will be better if he puts up similar statcast numbers next year. Maybe 2021 was slightly fluky, but it is not out of the question for Reynolds to at least get close to getting back to that level.
Another reason Reynolds was being watched was because of his contract negotiations coming into the season. That issue got resolved, as the Pirates locked him up through 2030 with an 8 yr./$106.75M contract.
#2 Oneil Cruz
You all know what happened here. He’ll be back in 2024 and should be as exciting as ever. Hopefully consistency comes along with the electricity.
#3 Endy Rodriguez
Rodriguez came into the season as the #55 MLB prospect according to MLB.com’s rankings. He hit well enough at AAA to earn a promotion shortly after the all-star break, although his .415 slugging percentage was much lower than what it had been in previous minor league seasons.
He became the regular catcher once he debuted, and put up above average defense by both FanGraphs and BaseballReference methods. The bat, however, never quite got rolling, as he ended up hitting .220/.284/.328 and his batting average only cracked .250 for 5 days in August during a 6 for 12 stretch.
Obviously a 57-game sample is not enough to make a verdict on a 23 year old, and he should be fine as he gets more experience. He shouldn’t be in any danger of getting sent down due to his defense and minor league track record. Rodriguez is a highly touted prospect who has hit at every level, and he should be able to take a step forward offensively next season.
Offseason Outlook:
The Pirates are in an interesting situation, and the front office needs to decide when they are truly ready to compete. They only have two impending free agents, Vince Velazquez and Andrew McCutchen, and they have the cap space to go out and improve in free agency.
The 2021 Tigers should be a cautionary tale for the Pirates, as they were in a similar situation but then sold out in free agency signing Javy Baez and Eduardo Rodriguez, in addition to trading for Austin Meadows. These moves set their timeline back, with the Baez contract in particular hampering them.
Using them as a guide, I think the Pirates should play it more conservatively than the Tigers, not throwing too much money at people this early in the path to contention (as if they’d do that anyway) and go for signings that patch holes in the roster. At least until their young guys truly prove themselves as solid major leaguers.
Starting pitching should be at the top of the list, and I think going after both a solid innings-eater and a high upside guy makes sense. Names such as Michael Lorenzen, Jack Flaherty, Jordan Montgomery, Kenta Maeda, Lucas Giolito, and Luis Severino are all feasible options to shore up the rotation that won’t break the bank.
A feasible rotation for them next year could end up being something like Keller, Oviedo, Flaherty, Lorenzen and rotate the 5th spot until either Skenes gets called up or Brubaker returns, whichever is first.
That’s a solid rotation that puts them in a much better position to contend than their rotation this year, and it gets better if Flaherty manages to find his 2018 or 2019 form and/or Lorenzen is able to replicate his 3.58 ERA that he had in ⅔ of a season with the Tigers this year.
Plug in Paul Skenes down the stretch and assume Keller takes another step forward and that moves to a top 10 rotation easily.
After they shore up the rotation, the first order of business on the position player side would be figuring out McCutchen’s fate. McCutchen has expressed desire to stay, so it would make sense to keep him around on a cheap deal to DH and provide veteran guidance.
After McCutchen, it would make sense to shore up first base, because although Alfonso Rivas and Connor Joe were fine, they could improve with what’s on the market for reasonable value.
Brandon Belt is a name being thrown around as a potential target and he had a very good season in Toronto this year with an .859 OPS. It would be foolish to expect that level of production out of him next year, but getting something even reasonably close would really help first base production.
Another option that requires a stronger commitment to contending is going after Rhys Hoskins. He’s coming off an injury, but adding him should give the Pirates stronger offensive production than they’ve had from first base in a long time. Either Belt or Hoskins are viable, it just depends on how much the Pirates want to dive in.
As long as the Pirates patch up first base and the rotation, they should be in position to compete next year assuming their bats improve, because their roster should be better across the board next year. If they have a good season next year after getting their feet wet in free agency, then they can completely dive in and throw more money towards free agents, or they could use it to lock up prospects as they further reveal their major league capabilities.
What to Look Out For:
Watch for contract extensions for Mitch Keller and/or David Bednar. GM Ben Cherington has said he will consider coming to terms on extensions with those two, and the Pirates extended Bryan Reynolds in the spring as well.
Although they are generally pretty shy when it comes to giving out money, it would be a good look for the franchise and make fans happy if they actually lock down their best starter and elite closer. Getting the proven guys locked down before they end up going to the Yankees, Dodgers, Mets, or whatever team throws money at them is important and shows that Pittsburgh is ready to take the next step and spend some money to get there.
Categories: 2023 Season Review, Articles, Season Analysis
M-SABR 
Leave a comment