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In 2019, the Arizona Diamondbacks selected Corbin Carroll out of Lakeside High School in Seattle, Washington, with the sixteenth pick in the first round of the MLB Draft. In 2022, he was called up to the big leagues in August late in the season, and the following year, in 2023, he won the National League Rookie of the Year award and finished in the top five in the NL Most Valuable Player voting.
Corbin posted an impressive slash line of .285 AVG/.362 OBP/.506 SLG, 25 HRs, 76 RBIs, and 54 SBs. Throughout his career so far, he has shown immense growth and rapid progression on the ball field, and this year in 2025, I strongly believe that he will take his game to the next level and will win the NL Most Valuable Player award. Here’s why:
1. Overall Value
Corbin Carroll is an absolute monster on both offense and defense and brings tremendous value for the Arizona Diamondbacks each and every ball game. When you think of an MVP, you think of a player who has eye-popping statistics, transforms the game, dominates every moment, is someone you can count on in pressured moments, and simply just does it all for the ball club. I believe that Corbin Carroll perfectly embodies that description.
To start with his offensive production, Carroll currently posts a slash line of .285 AVG/.357 OBP/.620 SLG (as of May 14, 2025), with 14 Home Runs, 31 RBIs, 5 Stolen Bases, and has scored 35 runs in a total of just 43 games. Per Baseball Savant, Carroll has a 97th percentile batting run value and 100th percentile baserunning value. Additionally, his xwOBA is at 0.422 (96th percentile), his xSLG is at 0.641 (99th percentile), and his Barrel% is at 17.7% (95th percentile).
So far, Carroll is absolutely raking, barreling the baseball, and has been a menacing force on the bases. Not only do opposing defenses have to deal with Carroll’s violent and smooth lefty swing and power, but they also have to deal with his speed (96th percentile sprint speed in the league, running about 29.5 feet per second) and his intelligence and high baseball IQ as a baserunner. Carroll is a ballplayer who can stretch singles to doubles, doubles to triples, steal bases, drive in runs, and pepper the baseball. Simply put, he is a nightmare on the diamond for any pitcher and defender.
Furthermore, Carroll’s defensive production is commensurately stellar. Per Baseball Savant, he is ranked number seven overall in the league for fielding run value and in the 98th percentile of all fielders. His outs above average ranks in the 95th percentile of the league, and his arm value ranks 92nd percentile. Corbin has also only made one error (a throwing error) this season in right field, and in his career, he has only committed 5 errors. In the 2025 season this far, he has also posted 98 putouts and 4 assists from right field. With his speed, Carroll can easily get to fly balls and run after line drives, efficiently covering the right field gap and down the line. He is an outstanding right-fielder and is consistent, efficient, and brings tremendous defensive value for the Diamondbacks.
To conclude with Corbin’s value to the Diamondbacks, his fWAR is at 2.8, only ranking behind the league leader, Aaron Judge, with 3.9 fWAR. Currently having the highest fWAR in the National League, that statistic and all of the others I have mentioned above truly speak volumes about how good Corbin Carroll has been this season and how much value he brings to his ball club, more so than any other National League player.
2. Comparison with others in the race for NL MVP
Fanduel Sportsbook currently has Shohei Ohtani as the favorite for NL MVP at +170 odds (37.04% implied odds), Fernando Tatis Jr. at +480 odds (17.24% implied odds), and then Corbin Carroll at +550 odds (15.38% implied odds). Ohtani is a clear standout favorite as of now, however, I believe that holistically that Corbin Carroll is a more valuable player this season in comparison to Shohei Ohtani and Fernando Tatis Jr.
I know what you must be thinking while reading this whole article: how can this guy believe that Corbin Carroll is better than Shohei Ohtani? Well, here is my reasoning. Just please hear me out. Corbin Carroll is elite both on offense and on defense, and additionally brings that outstanding speed, while Ohtani is only a designated hitter for the Los Angeles Dodgers. I am not denying that Ohtani is a productive hitter, but Carroll is quite literally doing much more and bringing more value as a player than Ohtani is by playing on both sides of the ball.
Additionally, Carroll currently has a higher fWAR than Ohtani by 0.5, which objectively quantifies Corbin’s higher impact on the diamond throughout this season. Lastly, I believe that Carroll is impacting the game for the D-Backs in a much bigger way than Ohtani is for the Dodgers. Carroll is vital to the Diamondbacks’ success, as only three batters have above a 1.0 fWAR, whereas Ohtani is the leader of seven different batters on the Dodgers who have an fWAR above 1.0. Corbin Carroll is more valuable and more impressive this season thus far because he is producing better offensively, contributes to the defensive side which Ohtani has no role in, and is lifting up a subpar baseball team practically on his own, as Ohtani is the star but is simultaneously surrounded by great talent which makes it easier to win games.
Moving on to Fernando Tatis Jr., in 2025, Corbin Carroll is a more valuable and better player because he has 3 more home runs than Tatis, a higher fWAR by 0.1, a higher SLG% by 0.046, a higher xwOBACON by 0.061. It is also worth noting that Tatis is leading over Carroll in xwOBA, AVG, and OBP. Though these differences seem small, the small differences make the biggest impact when comparing the best players. And though the stats place Carroll, in my opinion, above Tatis Jr., I believe that the off-the-field actions of Tatis Jr., particularly his history with performance-enhancing drug usage, will taint his legacy and impact voting.
3. Health
In his two full 162-game seasons, Carroll has played in 96.6% of the games. The saying “availability is the best ability” is completely applicable when talking about the MVP race, because to produce and give the most value to your ball club, you simply have to be on the field. And so far in his career as a young star, Corbin has proven to stay healthy on the field while not suffering any significant injuries. Corbin knows how to stay on the field consistently, which will give him many more opportunities to produce and a clear advantage against the players he competes against for the NL MVP award.
Again to compare against other favorites for NL MVP, from 2021-2024 in full 162 game seasons, Tatis Jr. has only played 76% of the games. In 6 full 162 game seasons (excluding 2020), Ohtani has played 85% of the games.
However, no MVP candidate is perfect, and here are some reasons why voters won’t consider him the most valuable National League player:
1. Team Success
Though I do not personally believe that the team must have success throughout the season in order for someone to win the Most Valuable Player award, the reality is that team success is an incredibly relevant and important factor in MLB MVP voting. To look at all of the MLB MVP winners since the 2010 MLB Season (past 15 years), out of the 30 MVPs, only 7 of those times, players were on rosters of ball clubs that did not make the playoffs.
When looking at the current state of the Arizona Diamondbacks, they have a record of 22-21 (a 51.2% win percentage), are 4th in the NL West and 3 games back from first place, and are also 3 games back from a NL Wild Card position. Per Fanduel Sportsbook, the Diamondbacks have +112 odds to make the playoffs in 2025, which has an implied probability of 47.17% chance of this happening. The D-Backs are definitely in contention to play in October, but it’s truly almost a coin flip and uncertain as to whether they will truly make the playoffs.
2. MVPs who have won without their teams reaching the playoffs
Given the real possibility that the D-Backs miss the playoffs, let’s look at the 7 times that players won MVP without their team venturing into October baseball.
To start with Mike Trout, he won the AL MVP in 2016 without the Angels making the playoffs by posting a slash line of .315 AVG/.441 OBP/.550 SLG, with 29 Home Runs, 100 RBIs, and a 8.7 fWAR. Then in 2019, Trout won the award again, with the Angels missing the playoffs, posting a slash line of .291 AVG/.438 OBP/.645 SLG, 45 Home Runs, 104 RBIs, and a 7.8 fWAR.
Moving onto Shohei Ohtani, who Carroll will be competing against in the NL MVP race, Ohtani won the 2021 AL MVP without the Angels making the playoffs by posting a slash line of .257 AVG/.372 OBP/.592 SLG, with 46 Home Runs, 100 RBIs, and a 5.0 fWAR. Ohtani also won the AL MVP 2023 without the Angels making the playoffs, posting a slash line of .304 AVG/.412 OBP/.654 SLG, with 44 Home Runs, 95 RBIs, and a 6.5 fWAR.
Adding on, without the Nationals making the playoffs, Bryce Harper won the 2015 NL MVP, posting a slash line, .330 AVG/.460 OBP/.649 SLG, with 42 Home Runs, 99 RBIs, and a 9.3 fWAR. Harper won the award again, without the Phillies making the playoffs in 2021, posting a slash line of .309 AVG/.429 OBP /.615 SLG, with 35 Home Runs, 84 RBIs, and a 6.6 fWAR.
Finally, the last player within this 10-year time frame to win MVP without their team making the playoffs is Giancarlo Stanton in 2017 with the Marlins, posting a slash line of .281 AVG/.376 OBP/.631 SLG, with 59 Home Runs, 132 RBIs, and a 6.4 fWAR.
Putting all of the data together, these MVPs without their teams making the playoffs, on average, posted a slash line of .298 AVG/.418 OBP/.619 SLG, with 42.86 Home Runs, 102 RBIs, and a 7.19 fWAR.
In comparison, thus far, Carroll has a slash line of .285 AVG/.357 OBP/.620 SLG (as of May 14, 2025), with 14 Home Runs, 31 RBIs, and 2.8 fWAR. So Carroll would theoretically need to increase his AVG by 0.013, increase his OBP by 0.061, be above the SLG threshold, hit 28.86 more Home Runs, have 71 more RBIs, and increase his fWAR by 4.39. Obviously, this is not the end all be all statistic for Corbin to win MVP, but it does show that historically he needs to continue to rake the baseball and produce at higher levels to reach the MVP caliber of play that Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, Bryce Harper, and Giancarlo Staton had without their teams reaching MVP. As Carroll isn’t a true power hitter, it will be a hard mountain to climb to offensively compensate for subpar team performance on the diamond to win NL MVP.
3. General Concerns
Of course, we have to also consider that elite and MVP-caliber level of production throughout a 162-game season is incredibly difficult, and that players can often regress over the course of the season. Also, health has to be considered, since being on the field and giving your best chance to produce on the diamond every day is something that is vital to every MVP race. Simply put, injuries and regression are areas of concern that could hinder the performance of Corbin Carroll, but also for every single other Major League Baseball player.
Despite all of these concerns and doubts, I believe that Carroll’s overall elite production on both offense and defense and his health will make him the most valuable player in the National League in the 2025 MLB season. Feel free to revisit this article at the end of the season to see which parts I got right and wrong.
Categories: Analysis, MLB Player Profiles
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